2023 FULL Season (hopefully) Betting Thread

BringInTheLefty

BringInTheLefty

Pretty much a regular
Can’t believe in just 13 days we are back at it again
This will be my 5th year on this site posting my picks
I had a great run last year until August, rebounded in September but then struggled in the Postseason




There are many very good MLB cappers on this forum and I wish y’all a great & profitable season


Let the F-ing grind begin…
 
formulated my strategy for the first few weeks of the season
will be making a few series bets & many first 5 inning plays





my first bets of the 2023 are:




Texas Rangers total wins by the end of April (30th) UNDER 14.5 +105
$400/$420





Philadelphia Phillies total wins by the end of April (30th) UNDER 15.5 -125
$750/$600




both bets from DK monthly wins
 
I don’t play many futures, I usually wait till the all star break to make any WS futures, i did actually play a Phillies and cardinals at beginning last year, while they were good bets im pretty sure I still coulda got same or better price on them at the asb, for most part the kinda teams im looking for generally not running away in 1st half, i probably wouldn’t even want them to be peaking that soon! Lol. Anyways there a point to this:

Considering Seager for mvp at 20-1, the 2 obvious hurdles are Ohtani being a freak, if he stays healthy the mvp is all but his. 2nd being despite trout and ohtani being able to win mvps on a not so good team I think that takes a historical type season or doing something we never seen (I guess those are the same thing). There certainly a chance ohtani has a injury along the way, the fact he was geared up throwing 100+ in april could maybe be a detriment? I’d also think there at least maybe a slight chance he gets traded? Halos will most likely be out of contention per usual and from what i understand he gonna be a dodger so maybe laa decides they should get something for him? Can the rangers compete for a wild card spot with how many teams get in now? I wouldn’t think it totally out of the question to at least be within shouting distance, even tho I think houston and seattle are both significantly better. They obviously need a guy who never stays healthy to actually stay healthy! In all reality a .500 season puts you at least in contention which might be enough if the players season is good enough.

Far as Seager himself I told you over and over last year i thought he would be much better this season and that was before I had any idea they were gonna eliminate the shift! Just think a guys 1st year at a new place on a mega contract is a difficult one, doubly so when switching leagues imo. Gotta adjust to new team, new city, etc etc, havnt seen much of these pitchers, the pressure you put on yourself to live up to the contract, it all just leads up to year one generally being a bit worse than the player accustomed to, i watched it in St. Louis more than once and just recently with Goldsmidt who now has a mvp as a cardinal! It wasn’t his 2nd season here but his 2nd happened to come w covid, his ops still jumped up 60 points from year 1, ultimately it took cards putting a legit bat in Arenado behind him but anyways back to Seager. No shift could be a big deal for him, simplifying it down to balls he hit the last few years that the shift took hits away he among the tops, his .275 avg would have been .325!! Obviously it over simplifying things to do it this way as pitchers will no doubt adjust their pitching while they were most likely often pitching to the shift. Even so the fact is lefty hitters like him are without a doubt gonna see their averages go up as he will often hit rockets up the middle or over 2nd baseman’s head that will once again be a hit., his last year in La he had a .915 ops, if we assume he gonna get back to that then tack on for the increased jump in average and we talking about a premium position guy with potentially a .950ish ops! Goldsmidt had a .981 winning it last year while playing 1st. Of course he was leading a stl team in 1st in a bad division. So thinking 20-1 might offer some value but rangers have to at least be in contention for a WC. You think that possible? There RSW total is 82.5, that should keep them close enough i would think if he had a truly monster year. The only other thing I don’t like my perception of that new stadium appeared to be more a pitchers park while judge gets gifted a handful of bombs playing at yankee stadium. Anyways what you think bout Seager? Hearing anything good bout him coming into this year????
 
Seager had a very nice spring
55AB
.400
4 HR’s
9 RBI’s



I see him batting .260 this year - no higher but an improvement from last years .245



he really needs to cut down on his errors


I’d like to see him improve but have my doubts


I still see our team winning between 72-74 games
at any time 4 of our 5 starters could go on the DL
 
BringInTheLefty said:
Seager had a very nice spring
55AB
.400
4 HR’s
9 RBI’s



I see him batting .260 this year - no higher but an improvement from last years .245



he really needs to cut down on his errors


I’d like to see him improve but have my doubts


I still see our team winning between 72-74 games
at any time 4 of our 5 starters could go on the DL
Click to expand...

You more pessimistic than me I see, sounds like 20-1 isn’t nearly enough! Lol. Even if my projection on him is better than yours I’d guess 72-74 wins be pretty damning to his chances as I don’t see him being so historically great they ignore the losing record. The point about the errors is also a good one that I hadn’t really thought about, even if he playing a premium position not gonna get much credit for that if he playing it poorly! Lol.,

Far as rangers team outlook and injuries It’s crazy to think about Mets felt safer paying a 40 year old pitcher to be one their cornerstone pitchers than giving degrom 5 years that would take him to age 39!! I still want to give your squad credit for willingness to spend but foolish spending in some ways worse than pinching penny's! Their 5 man rotation could be one the best in the AL but the likelihood even 3 of them start 20+ games seems low. I’d love to see them all stay healthy.
 
2daBank said:
You more pessimistic than me I see, sounds like 20-1 isn’t nearly enough! Lol. Even if my projection on him is better than yours I’d guess 72-74 wins be pretty damning to his chances as I don’t see him being so historically great they ignore the losing record. The point about the errors is also a good one that I hadn’t really thought about, even if he playing a premium position not gonna get much credit for that if he playing it poorly! Lol.,

Far as rangers team outlook and injuries It’s crazy to think about Mets felt safer paying a 40 year old pitcher to be one their cornerstone pitchers than giving degrom 5 years that would take him to age 39!! I still want to give your squad credit for willingness to spend but foolish spending in some ways worse than pinching penny's! Their 5 man rotation could be one the best in the AL but the likelihood even 3 of them start 20+ games seems low. I’d love to see them all stay healthy.
Click to expand...
You’re 1,000,000% we’ve spent a ton of cash last two seasons but as of today it’s all been WASTED money
Your point on the Mets not signing deGrom is spot on if they felt he was 100% they’d have signed him
He’s damaged good and we are lucky if we get 8 starts from him this year
 
BringInTheLefty said:
You’re 1,000,000% we’ve spent a ton of cash last two seasons but as of today it’s all been WASTED money
Your point on the Mets not signing deGrom is spot on if they felt he was 100% they’d have signed him
He’s damaged good and we are lucky if we get 8 starts from him this year
Click to expand...

And it not like Mets been know for wise spending themselves! Maybe it gotten better under this new owner, maybe not? But I kinda think of them as the poster boys for whet rangers doing, just throwing money at anyone they can get, vastly overpaying in many instances as teams with a inferiority complex often do. Mets had to deal w yankess getting all the NY love and rangers forced to watch houston win year after year, might be even worse in this case, Mets in same city but at least have the AL/NL buffer, being in the same division gotta hurt!
 
⚾️Opening Day, Thursday 3/30⚾️





NY Yankees first five 1/2 -$125
$750/$600




Indians first five -105
$630/$600





Orioles first five +$100
$400/$400






Giants hitters had the ninth-worst K% in the league last season
they were 8th worst in BA
this year’s lineup looks no better
Webb allowed 9 earned runs in 18 innings pitched this Spring




one of my favorite things about the Indians is how they don’t strike out
They had the lowest K% in MLB last season 18.2%
The Indians keep the game interesting with a ton of contact
With the new rules and some serious speedsters on this team squad I can see them scoring early & often
Castillo has allowed 19 hits across 17 innings pitched this spring
 
BringInTheLefty said:
⚾️Opening Day, Thursday 3/30⚾️





NY Yankees first five 1/2 -$125
$750/$600




Indians first five -105
$630/$600





Orioles first five +$100
$400/$400






Giants hitters had the ninth-worst K% in the league last season
they were 8th worst in BA
this year’s lineup looks no better
Webb allowed 9 earned runs in 18 innings pitched this Spring




one of my favorite things about the Indians is how they don’t strike out
They had the lowest K% in MLB last season 18.2%
The Indians keep the game interesting with a ton of contact
With the new rules and some serious speedsters on this team squad I can see them scoring early & often
Castillo has allowed 19 hits across 17 innings pitched this spring
Click to expand...


Opening Day RECAP:


WIN 3-0 NY Yankees first five -1/2 +$600




PUSH 0-0 Indians first five -105






WIN 8-2 Orioles first five +$100
+$400




2-0-1
+$1,000


nice way to start the grind…
 
Day 3:
season:
2-1-1
+$580







Blue Jays first five OVER 4 -120
$720/$600



Phillies first five -130
$520/$400



Angels first five -1/2 -110
$550/$500
 
RECAP:






LOST 0-3 Blue Jays first five OVER 4
-$720





LOST 3-7 Phillies first five
-$520





WIN 11-1 Angels first five -1/2
+$500





1-2
-$740








season:
3-3-1
-$160
 
RECAP:





LOST 1-4 Braves -1.5 -$690
LOST 1-4 Braves TT over 5.5 -$400




0-2
-$1,090





season:
-$1,260
3-5-1


after a good opening day, I stumbled over the weekend…
 
Monday, April 3rd

season:
-$1,260
3-5-1







Twins first five TT over 2.5 +$130
$400/$520


Twins TT over 4.5 +115
$600/$690



Rays first five TT over 2.5 +120
$400/$480


Rays TT over 4.5 -115
$690/$600






series:
Cubs -120 $1,440/$1,200
Orioles +145 $500/$725
Brewers -105 $525/$500
Twins -105 $840/$800
 
Last edited:
RECAP:







WIN 8-1 Twins first five TT over 2.5
+$520



WIN 11-1 Twins TT over 4.5 +$690



WIN 4-0 Rays first five TT over 2.5
+$480


WIN 6-2 Rays TT over 4.5 +$600



4-0
+$2,290





season:
7-5-1
+$1,030







series:
Cubs 0-1
Orioles 1-0
Brewers 1-0
Twins 1-0
 
Tuesday, April 4th
season:
7-5-1
+$1,030








Twins over 7 -110 $660/$600
Rays first five -1/2 -120 $480/$400










7 of the last 8 games between the Twins and Marlins have gone OVER the total runs line



Rays have won each of their last 11 games against NL East opponents
 
RECAP:







LOST 0-1 Twins over 7 -$660
LOST 4-5 Rays first five -1/2 -$480







Pending Series:
Cubs 1-1
Orioles 2-0 +$725
Brewers 2-0 +$500
Twins 1-1





2-2
+$85







season:
9-7-1
series: 2-0
+$1,115
 
season:
9-7-1
series: 2-0
+$1,115






Pending Series:
Cubs 1-1
Twins 1-1







Cubs & over 7.5 +230 $300/$690
Cubs -110 $440/$400
Rangers over 7.5 -110 $660/$600
 
RECAP:






Pending Series:
Cubs 1-1 PPD- NO BET
LOST Twins 1-2 -$840







PPD Cubs & over 7.5
PPD Cubs -110 $440/$400
LOST 5-2 Rangers over 7.5 -$660





0-2
-$1,500





season:
9-9-1
series: 2-1
-$385
 
RECAP: Thursday, April 6th:





WIN 6-3 Tigers OVER 8 +$600
WIN 16-6 SF Giants +$460
WIN 16-6 SF Giants OVER 8 +$800






3-0
+$1,860








season:
12-9-1
+$1,475



It’s nice to have a good day, but I need to string together 3,4 days in a row…
 
season:
series bets: 2-1
12-9-1
+$1,475







Phillies OVER 7.5 -110 $660/$600
Phillies & OVER 7.5 +185 $300/$555
White Sox -140 $700/$500




Series Bets:
Rangers +105 $800/$840
Brewers -105 $840/$800
Blue Jays -115 $1,380/$1,200
 
Last edited:
RECAP:


LOST 5-2 Phillies OVER 7.5 -$660
LOST 5-2 Phillies & OVER 7.5 -$300
LOST 9-13 White Sox -$700




0-3
-$1,660





Series Bets:
Rangers 0-1
Brewers 1-0
Blue Jays 1-0







season:
12-12-1
-$185
 
Saturday, April 8th
season:
series bets: 2-1
12-12-1
-$185





Pending Series Bets:
Rangers 0-1
Brewers 1-0
Blue Jays 1-0






Mets & OVER 7.5 +200
$300/$600


Mets -155
$775/$500


Red Sox OVER 8 -115
$690/$600


Brewers UNDER 8.5 -105
$840/$800
 
RECAP:






Pending Series Bets:
Rangers 0-2 -$800
Brewers 1-1
Blue Jays 1-1






LOST 5-2 Mets & OVER 7.5 -$300


WIN 5-2 Mets -155 +$500


WIN 14-5 Red Sox OVER 8 +$600


WIN 6-0 Brewers UNDER 8.5 +$800




3-1
series: 0-1
+$800






season:
15-13-1
series: 2-2
+$615
 
Easter Sunday, April 9th
season:
15-13-1
series: 2-2
+$615








Phillies OVER 8.5 -105 $840/$800
Rays & OVER 7.5 +135 $400/$540
Orioles +135 $400/$540
Cubs -110 $880/$800





Pending Series Bets:
Brewers 1-1
Blue Jays 1-1
 
RECAP:







WIN 6-4 Phillies OVER 8.5 +$800
WIN 11-0 Rays & OVER 7.5 +135 +$540
LOST 3-5 Orioles +135 -$400
LOST 2-8 Cubs -$880







Pending Series Bets:
WIN Brewers 2-1 +$800
WIN Blue Jays 2-1 +$1,200





4-2
+$2,060





season:
19-15-1
series: 4-2
+$2,675
 
season:
19-15-1
series: 4-2
+$2,675






Twins first 5 +100
$600/$600
Twins -105
$840/$800


Orioles first five -1/2 -120
$720/$600
Orioles TT over 4.5 -115
$690/$600




Series:
Twins -150
$1,800/$1,200
Orioles -130
$1,040/$800
 
RECAP:






LOST 3-4 Twins first 5
-$600
LOST 3-4 Twins
-$840


WIN 3-1 Orioles first five -1/2 -120
+$600
WIN 5-1 Orioles TT over 4.5 -115
+$600




Pending Series:
Twins 0-1
Orioles 1-0




2-2
-$240




season:
21-17-1
series: 4-2
+$2,435
 
Tuesday, April 11th
season:
21-17-1
series: 4-2
+$2,435






Braves UNDER 9 -110
$660/$600

Astros -1.5 -110
$550/$500

Phillies OVER 7.5 -115
$920/$800





Pending Series:
Twins 0-1
Orioles 1-0






5 of the Braves' last 6 home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line


Each of the Phillies' last 6 home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line
 
BringInTheLefty said:
Tuesday, April 11th
season:
21-17-1
series: 4-2
+$2,435






Braves UNDER 9 -110
$660/$600

Astros -1.5 -110
$550/$500

Phillies OVER 7.5 -115
$920/$800





Pending Series:
Twins 0-1
Orioles 1-0






5 of the Braves' last 6 home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line


Each of the Phillies' last 6 home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line
Click to expand...

I just don’t see Philly hitting Lazardo, he is really on his game right now. I love the plus money on fish or taking the 1.5 runs. I’m sure Nola will have a good start at some point, that a tough over imo. Lazardo has been really good.
 
RECAP:






LOST 7-6 Braves UNDER 9 -110
-$660



LOST 4-7 Astros -1.5 -110
-$550




WIN 4-8 Phillies OVER 7.5 -115
+$800





Pending Series:
Twins 1-1
Orioles 2-0 +$800





2-2
+$390





season:
23-19-1
series: 5-2
+$2,825



Pending Series Bet:
Twins 1-1
 
Wednesday, April 12th
season:
23-19-1
series: 5-2
+$2,825





Pending Series Bet:
Twins 1-1






Mets first five -120
$600/$500

Mets -115
$575/$500


Mets TT over 3.5 -150
$1,200/$800




Mets have led after 3 innings in 4 of their last 5 home day games


Mets have won each of their last 6 games at Citi Field following a loss
 
RECAP:





Pending Series Bet:
WIN Twins 2-1 +$1,200






WIN 3-2 Mets first five -120
+$500



WIN 5-2 Mets -115
+$500



WIN 5-2 Mets TT over 3.5 -150
+$800





4-0
+$3,000







season:
27-19-1
series: 6-2
+$5,825



I’ve been waiting for a day like this since the season started
More importantly than my bottom line is I’m killing the series bets…
 
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