The summer has flown by and here we are in the midst of preparing for another college football season here at CTG...
This will be out 17th season at the site, and wow, just typing that makes me feel extremely old. The excitement is always high though and I personally cannot wait to get things kicked off here in just a few days!
So, my yearly pledge is to get as much posted in here as possible. I state it each year, and likely fail, but I think I'll have a better shot this season. The LIVE betting aspect is the hard part. We all want to post as quickly as possible when it comes to those in-game plays. With that being said, first and foremost is getting the plays in for ourselves then posting as quickly as possible. Each season brings an evolution of gambling. Looking back 5-7 years ago, team totals were still semi-soft but nowadays they put out some sharp numbers and really juice up certain teams. So, we adjust. Years back, sides became a lot more difficult and situational capping seemed to change a bit. Then, it seemed to come back the last few years (at times). Again, these are my own observations. With that all being said, my gameplan this year is basically to keep things simple. I won't be playing a heavy number of plays. I may even not play a few weeks in particular. Looking back at the past few years I know when and where I can be successful with this sport. I also know when I basically am using the roll as entertainment money, and that needs to be tightened up a little bit.
You will get most of my B16 thoughts in our weekly thread. This one will be used for tracking purposes and general discussion and banter.
I can say, there are so many futures that I have pondered, but I am going to keep things simple for now. I am still looking at a few more if/when the prices are where I would like them...I'll list with dates played...
MNC Winner - Texas AM +1600 (January 14th)
MNC Winner - Michigan +3300 (January 29th)
RSW Michigan Over 9.5 -105 (May 31st) 2 units
RSW Utah Over 9 -110 (July 1st) 3 units
Heisman - Caleb Williams +900 (June 22nd) 1.5 units
Heisman - Jaxon Smith- Njigba +2800 (August 16th) 0.5 units
Heisman - Bijan Robinson +2800 (August 16th) 0.5 units
Now, some thoughts here...
So, the best thing I did last college football season was bet on the Georgia Bulldogs mid-January of 2021 to win the National Championship. I played two units on the stinking bet and it won (small hedge in-game fwiw). Well, as well know, garnering any value for championship odds is tough in CFB. So, I decided to press my luck and toss a unit on the Aggies despite the QB situation. Everything else matches up nicely for them in my opinion to have a chance. Arkansas and Miami are both at Kyle in September. They know they can beat the Tide, and that will determine a lot in early October. Do I think this is realistic? No. But funnier things have happened.
Next, we will address the 'homer' bet. The schedule sets up nicely for Michigan to have a playoff quarterfinal November 26th in the Shoe. The offense is loaded, and the defense has a chance to be pretty good. That is the question, how good will the defense be? We shall see but JH usually isn't tossing out Kool-Aid like he has so far in camp. We shall see. I expect they will be 10-1 come The Game. Of course, better odds are out there now, but what can you do? I generally don't toss these types of bets out pre-season, but this is more of a fun bet than anything else.
Now, the RSW bet on Michigan I really like. Again, they finally learned to not schedule a tough opponent early (a lot of this is due to the changing schedules around the country). This is a perfect opportunity to grow as a team before the season really starts in Iowa City (although Hunt likes Maryland to beat them in late September). Michigan gets PSU and MSU at home in October. The Iowa game is likely a noon start, which helps a lot. Nebraska in mid-November is also at home. Will they drop one before OSU? Most likely. I still like this price and think the play is solid.
Utah is a team that many really like around the gambling space. That does scare me a bit, but I think we will be alright. This particular RSW should push at worst, in my estimation. I think 10-11 wins is definitely attainable. Now, if they lose in the swamp early, I will not panic. I don't think that happens though. USC at Rice-Eccles in mid-October is a huge game in the overall scheme. I expect a win, and then probably a loss on a Thursday 12 days later to Wazzou (half-kidding). I won't quite hype them for a playoff bid, I simply see 10-2 at the minimum.
Let us talk Caleb Williams now. We know how talented this guy is and the unique situation of transferring WITH your coach is present here. He has all the tools to be a Heisman candidate. What is the drawback? Well, he is playing on the West Coast. He'll need 9-10 team wins. You want to cap how Riley will do in his first season record-wise as well. Other than the aforementioned Utah game, this schedule is weak till November. That means, we could see some nice stats and get some W's and the hype machine going. What else do I like? Caleb will have basically his last 4 games as SHOWCASE games...
Friday night home game vs Colorado (National TV)
Rivalry game vs UCLA the next week
Notre Dame on Thanksgiving Weekend
Possible P12 Championship game
So, that month of games will help off-set the West Coast issue.
I wanted to play this much earlier but couldn't get a number down on him. I played this for a bit more than the standard...
Two more Heisman plays...
I will say that at the end of last year JSN was quickly becoming the scariest of the trio at Ohio State. That is no disrespect to Wilson and Olave, we simply have to admire that trio in full. We know the drawbacks to this bet... they have three guys who could split votes. Henderson may end up being the better candidate (I am dismissing Stroud). I just think the value here is pretty darn good. This is a half-unit play.
Texas is back, again, right? This team will be fun and maddening at the same time. Looks like goldilocks is getting the nod at QB. Worthy is a stud outside, but this team will be at their best feeding Bijan. To bet a running back for Heisman, you are looking for huge numbers and plenty of TV games. Well, this sets up well. Again, this is a half unit but solid value in my estimation.
That is all, for now. My favorite play of all these is the UTAH RSW.
In-season betting on the Heisman may happen, everything is fluid.
The only way I see any more MNC bets would be a top tier team losing in September, setting up some value....
Now, game plays have been in the mix for a few months now...
Ohio State -13.5 -110 2 units (May 15th-ish)
Utah over 53 -110 3 units (June 28th)
Yes, The OSU number is stale. I have posted this in a few threads though during the spring and summer. The number went as high as 15.5 and settled back at 14.5. You'll likely see me have more on TT's in this game than the side. I lean over at this point as the new Buckeyes defense will still be adjusting. They simply need to give up 14 for this to hit (Ohio State gets 45 in this game). I think they blow out Freeman and Co pretty easily. They have the bulletin board material as well. More to come on this game....
Utah and Florida will be one of the more interesting games of a pretty dull Saturday to open the season. The Utes should score consistently while Florida will get some as well. Right now, I see something like 35-24 Utes, and that would be a heckuva start for the RSW.
As far as this Saturday, I have one I am looking at but likely only play LIVE. The following week is when the brain wants you to bet anything and everything, but I think the week will be pretty light for me. I am looking hard at one other total currently...
As we get into the fall, please remember that we are running some fun, annual contests here at CTG!
Once again, we present the CFB Underdog Contest -- Click here for details!
Everyone's favorite capper, @s--k does a weekly pick'em(Click here for details) that is a lot of fun. I personally will pay out a prize for 1st place with a solid turnout!
Our longest running contest is back! NFL SURVIVOR
THESE ARE ALL CASH CONTESTS -- FREE TO SIGN-UP.
All we ask is that you take a peek at our main sponsors. To be successful gambling, you need to have multiple outs. Now, that can be a mix of US, offshore and local books. Whatever it takes for YOU to get the best prices. We have excellent relationships at these places if you have any issues and can generally help fix most problems (not all, most). They help with the contests and paying the bills.
Nice bonuses right now as we head into fall...
BETONLINE -100% CRYPTO BONUS
BOOKMAKER - 500.00 CASH BONUS
BOVADA - 500.00 WELCOME BONUS
This will be out 17th season at the site, and wow, just typing that makes me feel extremely old. The excitement is always high though and I personally cannot wait to get things kicked off here in just a few days!
So, my yearly pledge is to get as much posted in here as possible. I state it each year, and likely fail, but I think I'll have a better shot this season. The LIVE betting aspect is the hard part. We all want to post as quickly as possible when it comes to those in-game plays. With that being said, first and foremost is getting the plays in for ourselves then posting as quickly as possible. Each season brings an evolution of gambling. Looking back 5-7 years ago, team totals were still semi-soft but nowadays they put out some sharp numbers and really juice up certain teams. So, we adjust. Years back, sides became a lot more difficult and situational capping seemed to change a bit. Then, it seemed to come back the last few years (at times). Again, these are my own observations. With that all being said, my gameplan this year is basically to keep things simple. I won't be playing a heavy number of plays. I may even not play a few weeks in particular. Looking back at the past few years I know when and where I can be successful with this sport. I also know when I basically am using the roll as entertainment money, and that needs to be tightened up a little bit.
You will get most of my B16 thoughts in our weekly thread. This one will be used for tracking purposes and general discussion and banter.
I can say, there are so many futures that I have pondered, but I am going to keep things simple for now. I am still looking at a few more if/when the prices are where I would like them...I'll list with dates played...
MNC Winner - Texas AM +1600 (January 14th)
MNC Winner - Michigan +3300 (January 29th)
RSW Michigan Over 9.5 -105 (May 31st) 2 units
RSW Utah Over 9 -110 (July 1st) 3 units
Heisman - Caleb Williams +900 (June 22nd) 1.5 units
Heisman - Jaxon Smith- Njigba +2800 (August 16th) 0.5 units
Heisman - Bijan Robinson +2800 (August 16th) 0.5 units
Now, some thoughts here...
So, the best thing I did last college football season was bet on the Georgia Bulldogs mid-January of 2021 to win the National Championship. I played two units on the stinking bet and it won (small hedge in-game fwiw). Well, as well know, garnering any value for championship odds is tough in CFB. So, I decided to press my luck and toss a unit on the Aggies despite the QB situation. Everything else matches up nicely for them in my opinion to have a chance. Arkansas and Miami are both at Kyle in September. They know they can beat the Tide, and that will determine a lot in early October. Do I think this is realistic? No. But funnier things have happened.
Next, we will address the 'homer' bet. The schedule sets up nicely for Michigan to have a playoff quarterfinal November 26th in the Shoe. The offense is loaded, and the defense has a chance to be pretty good. That is the question, how good will the defense be? We shall see but JH usually isn't tossing out Kool-Aid like he has so far in camp. We shall see. I expect they will be 10-1 come The Game. Of course, better odds are out there now, but what can you do? I generally don't toss these types of bets out pre-season, but this is more of a fun bet than anything else.
Now, the RSW bet on Michigan I really like. Again, they finally learned to not schedule a tough opponent early (a lot of this is due to the changing schedules around the country). This is a perfect opportunity to grow as a team before the season really starts in Iowa City (although Hunt likes Maryland to beat them in late September). Michigan gets PSU and MSU at home in October. The Iowa game is likely a noon start, which helps a lot. Nebraska in mid-November is also at home. Will they drop one before OSU? Most likely. I still like this price and think the play is solid.
Utah is a team that many really like around the gambling space. That does scare me a bit, but I think we will be alright. This particular RSW should push at worst, in my estimation. I think 10-11 wins is definitely attainable. Now, if they lose in the swamp early, I will not panic. I don't think that happens though. USC at Rice-Eccles in mid-October is a huge game in the overall scheme. I expect a win, and then probably a loss on a Thursday 12 days later to Wazzou (half-kidding). I won't quite hype them for a playoff bid, I simply see 10-2 at the minimum.
Let us talk Caleb Williams now. We know how talented this guy is and the unique situation of transferring WITH your coach is present here. He has all the tools to be a Heisman candidate. What is the drawback? Well, he is playing on the West Coast. He'll need 9-10 team wins. You want to cap how Riley will do in his first season record-wise as well. Other than the aforementioned Utah game, this schedule is weak till November. That means, we could see some nice stats and get some W's and the hype machine going. What else do I like? Caleb will have basically his last 4 games as SHOWCASE games...
Friday night home game vs Colorado (National TV)
Rivalry game vs UCLA the next week
Notre Dame on Thanksgiving Weekend
Possible P12 Championship game
So, that month of games will help off-set the West Coast issue.
I wanted to play this much earlier but couldn't get a number down on him. I played this for a bit more than the standard...
Two more Heisman plays...
I will say that at the end of last year JSN was quickly becoming the scariest of the trio at Ohio State. That is no disrespect to Wilson and Olave, we simply have to admire that trio in full. We know the drawbacks to this bet... they have three guys who could split votes. Henderson may end up being the better candidate (I am dismissing Stroud). I just think the value here is pretty darn good. This is a half-unit play.
Texas is back, again, right? This team will be fun and maddening at the same time. Looks like goldilocks is getting the nod at QB. Worthy is a stud outside, but this team will be at their best feeding Bijan. To bet a running back for Heisman, you are looking for huge numbers and plenty of TV games. Well, this sets up well. Again, this is a half unit but solid value in my estimation.
That is all, for now. My favorite play of all these is the UTAH RSW.
In-season betting on the Heisman may happen, everything is fluid.
The only way I see any more MNC bets would be a top tier team losing in September, setting up some value....
Now, game plays have been in the mix for a few months now...
Ohio State -13.5 -110 2 units (May 15th-ish)
Utah over 53 -110 3 units (June 28th)
Yes, The OSU number is stale. I have posted this in a few threads though during the spring and summer. The number went as high as 15.5 and settled back at 14.5. You'll likely see me have more on TT's in this game than the side. I lean over at this point as the new Buckeyes defense will still be adjusting. They simply need to give up 14 for this to hit (Ohio State gets 45 in this game). I think they blow out Freeman and Co pretty easily. They have the bulletin board material as well. More to come on this game....
Utah and Florida will be one of the more interesting games of a pretty dull Saturday to open the season. The Utes should score consistently while Florida will get some as well. Right now, I see something like 35-24 Utes, and that would be a heckuva start for the RSW.
As far as this Saturday, I have one I am looking at but likely only play LIVE. The following week is when the brain wants you to bet anything and everything, but I think the week will be pretty light for me. I am looking hard at one other total currently...
As we get into the fall, please remember that we are running some fun, annual contests here at CTG!
Once again, we present the CFB Underdog Contest -- Click here for details!
Everyone's favorite capper, @s--k does a weekly pick'em(Click here for details) that is a lot of fun. I personally will pay out a prize for 1st place with a solid turnout!
Our longest running contest is back! NFL SURVIVOR
THESE ARE ALL CASH CONTESTS -- FREE TO SIGN-UP.
All we ask is that you take a peek at our main sponsors. To be successful gambling, you need to have multiple outs. Now, that can be a mix of US, offshore and local books. Whatever it takes for YOU to get the best prices. We have excellent relationships at these places if you have any issues and can generally help fix most problems (not all, most). They help with the contests and paying the bills.
Nice bonuses right now as we head into fall...
BETONLINE -100% CRYPTO BONUS
BOOKMAKER - 500.00 CASH BONUS
BOVADA - 500.00 WELCOME BONUS
