I'm not an NBA player...meaning I very rarely play the line in the association. But I do have 4 queries I follow that have been very good to me. Last year I was 9-3 playing them in reg season, I did make a few silly plays in the playoffs that didn't do so well but that another story.
Play #1
557 Utah Jazz -7½ -108
I mainly just play off the query unless there is significant injury that jumps out at me.
This is a simple query
Team off home win as dog with at least one day rest and playing as a road favorite. 63% ATS over 7+ years and 13-4 ats since last year (2-0 this year).
Dinwiddie is averaging 20.7 points and scored 29 in Sunday's 109-106 loss to the Miami Heat after collecting 32 points and 11 assists in a win over Boston on Friday. The Colorado product began the season as the sixth man but moved in the starting lineup with Irving out and is averaging 25 points and 7.3 assists in nine games as a starter. Dinwiddie got some help on the inside Sunday from center DeAndre Jordan, who scored 15 points in 24 minutes off the bench to snap a string of three straight games in which he failed to reach double figures.
Hawks PF De'Andre Hunter (finger) was injured Monday and is doubtful.
Random stuff
Lakers -3 - This a 3 games in 4 nights on the road, last game of the road trip for the Lakers vs a Trailblazers team who is getting all of the media attention for being back with Melo winning player of the week and stringing together a few wins. 2 wins against the bulls and 1 against the Kings doesn’t impress me enough to give them this line against the Lakers. Discounted price for LAL and although I'm not on it, I thought it's worth a mention
IND has won 7 of last 8 home games and have been great ball. They're on a 4 game win streak and will be looking to build more momentum against very beatable opposition. Their home record is 12-3 with a point difference of +95 while the Kings away record stands at 6-10 with a point difference of -47. Across all games this season, Indiana average 109.1 points per game which ranks 18th in the NBA while the away team average 104.7 points per game which ranks 25th in the NBA. Both teams last played on the 18th with IND getting a W by 3 points against the Lakers who came into that game averaging 115 points in their last 10 games but were held to 102 points by the Pacers. Kings meanwhile lost by 8 to the Hornets who averaged 102 points in their last 10 but scored 110 against the Kings. Pacers have come out on top in 7 out of their last 8 head-to-head meetings, with 4 of those 7 wins coming at home. The one time they lost was by 1 point, away in Sacramento. Look for Indiana to deliver a top-notch performance and get a W at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Line has already grown from open of 3 / 3.5 so I'm going with ML.
Also I would lean Celtics again at opening number around 7 but since it's 9 or so now, the value has been sucked out of it...but honestly they probably still roll.
No picks today but a few leans, may throw a few beans around just for entertainment.
Celtics -3
I really think this line is wrong. Raps are missing Siakam, Powell and Gasol. What does a good coach do in this case? Throw what you have at Lowry and make other players step up, and I just don't think the Raps will have enough to compete down the line. FVV and Ibaka will need to have monster games to give the Raps a chance, and the Celtics have what it takes to slow down these guards, if they come to play. This is a great game for the Celtics to build momentum and make a statement before hosting the Raps on the 29th in Boston. All the historical numbers for this game scream Toronto, which could explain the line, but I'm not buying it for this one, e.g. below. Moneyline -165 is great odds, but laying the points seems easy enough.
Bucks -2 - Too much depth and firepower for the Sixers. They do defend Forwards well, but Giannis has shown how to attack a solid big in the game vs LA. He will be in attack mode again and I think even if they were to somehow slow him down, there is just too much that this Bucks team will be able to throw at the Sixers. Amazing home team, but it ends here. The Bucks also have a 64-23 (73.6%) W/L record as away favs, since 2013, and 76ers have a 50-132 (27.5%) W/L record as home dogs, since 2011, so I would take ML -160 if you want to play it safe.
Clips +2 - Both LA teams come in off loses, with the Lakers losers of 3 straight and the Clippers losers of 3 out their last 5 (2L without Kawhi). The Clips won their opening night matchup 112-102, a "Clipper home game" in which it was 50/50 fan split if you want to be generous. Lakers rank 2nd in Cleaning the Glass' win differential stat - they have won 2.7 more games than expected given their point differential (4th). Filter out their last 3 loses and they ranked 1st at 3.3. This stat implies that the Lakers record may overrate this teams expected performance. LAC ranks 15th in Win Diff. at 0.0. LAC ranks 5th in point differential at +6.1 - just behind the Lakers (+7, 4th) through ~32 games this season. What makes this impressive is that Kawhi has played 23/32 and PG has played 21/32. On the other hand LeBron has played 29/30 and AD has played 28/30. I like the Clippers to win outright as I expect them to come in hungry to ruin the Lakers Christmas. Clips have a bench advantage, more shot creators and the more versatile team. LAC is 8-1 SU and ATS following a loss this season.
Also on Christmas day games we have seen a significant under trend
About 59% under in history of SDQL and 65% under last 7+ years View attachment 44740
Crazy number is home teams off a loss on Christmas day - 11-1-2 to the under since 2013
I've haven't really backed Philly much so far this season due to their shooting inconsistency, but basketball is very much a sport where teams get hot and cold. Sixers are playing their best ball of the season and Joel Embiid is starting to absolutely take over games. I know it's an away game, but I really like Philadelphia to get the win here (low line has me kind of scared, though.) Besides, Magic don't score a lot so if the Sixers jump out early, I don't expect them to relinquish their lead.
Also have hit 5 straight on road favorites with rest after a home win as a dog. 65% last 7+ years
No plays today, but thought I would share an interesting trend of over 80% over the total on New Years Eve over the last 4 years
...also home teams only cash ats 33.3% View attachment 44860
Good luck Mr. Pickem. I’m not sure the sports data bases can help predict or react to Lebron when he goes into pre-All-Star break jerk-off mode, though...
Played a couple bigger ML is why ROI not so great.
No play today but I have a very strong lean to Clips -11, I did take a small nibble at it...like .25u
Matter of fact, I will claim it...but only very small
