2019/2020 NCAAF Futures

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
2017-2018 Overall: 301-201 (+127.66 units)
2018-2019 Overall: 350-230 (+143.63 units)

Hey everybody! Few early birds, courtesy of BOL, who I have to assume is in desparate need of cash.

GOY:

Week 2:

Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)

Week 6:

Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (5 units)

Week 11:

Michigan State +14.5 @ Michigan -110 (2.5 units)

Week 12:

Texas A&M +15.5 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit)
TCU +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2.5 units)

Week 13:

Texas -3 v. Texas Tech -110 (2 units)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Memphis -110 (3 units)
 
This is some amazing value on most of these. Sneaky bol putting these out during first week of the tournament.
 
B.A.R. said:
This is some amazing value on most of these. Sneaky bol putting these out during first week of the tournament.
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I didnt love tying up all the loot, but these didnt require any handicapping from me. It was actually +17 before I got to it LOL
 
CrimsonK said:
I didnt love tying up all the loot, but these didnt require any handicapping from me. It was actually +17 before I got to it LOL
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Yeah, I was just commenting to a buddy that most of these are easy blind bets... +17 is highway robbery. Great job being on the lookout this morning! #BITB
 
AliShaheed said:
OSU +6.5 at mich?
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Lean that way. Felt Michigan was a little inflated across the board. I'm a huge Fields fan (managed 40/1 specualtive Heisman ticket before he was granted eligibility!) but I passed. Already locked up more money than I intended.
 
B.A.R. said:
That's one that looks bad now but who knows come then (I say that in the fact behind Fields who knows what to expect there)
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True. It's so far away. And that's why I generally avoid futures but holy shit these lines are something else...
 
twinkie13 said:
can't say I love your TX bet early

you likely get value, but what do you make the game? LSU-3?
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Early to say, but I would prob make texas a slight fav. I think Texas should have the better football team and are my early pick to make the CFP. The only way I would think LSU laying 7 would be justified is if Ehlinger gets hurt and misses the game.
 
You have an uncanny ability to be on top of these releases. How? Particularly in a situation like this where as far as I know there were no indicators of a release?

It was only cause of dumb luck that I stumbled upon them at around 1130am.
 
Texas +14.5 v. OU? Even in my cynical world of looking at Texas football (getting better by the day) this is the gift of all gifts.

Wow. Just wow.
 
AliShaheed said:
You have an uncanny ability to be on top of these releases. How? Particularly in a situation like this where as far as I know there were no indicators of a release?

It was only cause of dumb luck that I stumbled upon them at around 1130am.
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Twitter. Betonline emails all of the top sports journalism guys whenever they have a unique offering, like this. Barrett Sallee or some turd tweeted about it and I logged in right away and got to work. Some had already been hit, but I still got there early.
 
CrimsonK said:
Twitter. Betonline emails all of the top sports journalism guys whenever they have a unique offering, like this. Barrett Sallee or some turd tweeted about it and I logged in right away and got to work. Some had already been hit, but I still got there early.
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I also have a friend I cap with who stays down in the prop weeds with me and prob does about 75 daily rotations on every offshore book we have money in and he texts me right away if we get a niche offering, opening numbers, etc. I have a two alarm system. I would miss everything without him and twitter because I only bet a few months a year.
 
That's a horrendous line, but only because OU is going to be weaker at QB and UT is such a good dog. I'm not buying the UT hype.

As for TAMU, they should be good, but the situation strongly favors Clemson. The line will be lower than 21 at kickoff, but look for Clemson to win by 30.
 
CrimsonK said:
I also have a friend I cap with who stays down in the prop weeds with me and prob does about 75 daily rotations on every offshore book we have money in and he texts me right away if we get a niche offering, opening numbers, etc. I have a two alarm system. I would miss everything without him and twitter because I only bet a few months a year.
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He was awesome in Rounders, too.
 
Interested to hear more thoughts on Texas. I have them circled as a potential value team in the second half of the season but seems like they have an awful lot of pieces to replace early in the season. That much confidence in Ehlinger carrying them through the growing pains, or the younger talent stepping in with minimal issues?
 
Hey guys, hope everyone is well, will check back in soon and respond. Wanted to post the GOY bonanza over past 48 hours. I think I got all the weeks right, that was harder than capping the games! I was pretty much limited to 1 unit on these, didn't have as big of limits as I did on the first batch from few months ago.

Week 1

Colorado +9.5 v Colorado State -110 (1 unit - not a typo*)

Week 2

Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)

Week 3

UCLA +16 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Houston +9/10 v. Washington State -11 avg (2 units)

Week 5

Virginia +16.5 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 6

Cincinnati +6 @ UCF -120 (1 unit)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)

Week 7

Syracuse +11.5 @ NC State -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Houston -120 (1 unit)
Virginia +14 @ Miami -120 (1 unit)
FSU +28 @ Clemson -120 (1 unit)

Week 8

UCLA @ Stanford +13.5 -110 (1 unit)

Week 10

Baylor +6 v. WVU -110 (1 unit)
Washington -3.5 v. Utah -120 (1 unit)
Houston +14 @ UCF -110 (1 unit)
Army PK @ Air Force -120 (1 unit)
VT +15 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 12

Cincinnati +7.5 @ USF -120 (1 unit)
Baylor +13.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Navy +24 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 13

Cincinnati -3 v Temple -120 (1 unit)

Week 14

Cincinnati +9.5 @ Memphis -120 (1 unit)
Washington -6.5 v. Washington State -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
FSU +14 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Ole Miss +18.5 @ Miss St -120 (1 unit)

Week 15

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)
 
This is the comprehensive list:

Week 1

Colorado +9.5 v Colorado State -110 (1 unit - not a typo*)

Week 2

Houston +27 @ Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
Texas +7 v LSU -110 (2 units)
Texas A&M +21 @ Clemson -110 (1 unit)

Week 3

UCLA +16 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Houston +9/10 v. Washington State -115 avg (2 units)

Week 5

Virginia +16.5 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 6

Cincinnati +6 @ UCF -120 (1 unit)
VT +11 @ Miami -110 (1 unit)
Auburn +8 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)

Week 7

Syracuse +11.5 @ NC State -110 (1 unit)
Cincinnati +11.5 @ Houston -120 (1 unit)
Virginia +14 @ Miami -120 (1 unit)
FSU +28 @ Clemson -120 (1 unit)
Texas +14.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (5 units)

Week 8

UCLA @ Stanford +13.5 -110 (1 unit)

Week 10

Baylor +6 v. WVU -110 (1 unit)
Washington -3.5 v. Utah -120 (1 unit)
Houston +14 @ UCF -110 (1 unit)
Army PK @ Air Force -120 (1 unit)
VT +15 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 11

Michigan State +14.5 @ Michigan -110 (2.5 units)

Week 12

Cincinnati +7.5 @ USF -120 (1 unit)
Baylor +13.5 v. Oklahoma -110 (1 unit)
Navy +24 @ Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Week 13

Cincinnati -3 v Temple -120 (1 unit)
TCU +21 @ Oklahoma -110 (2.5 units)
Texas A&M +15.5 @ Georgia -110 (1 unit)

Week 14

Cincinnati +9.5/11.5 @ Memphis -115 avg (4 units)
Washington -6.5 v. Washington State -120 (1 unit)
Oklahoma State +10.5 v. Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)
FSU +14 @ Florida -120 (1 unit)
Ole Miss +18.5 @ Miss St -120 (1 unit)
Texas -3 v. Texas Tech -110 (2 units)

Week 15

Navy +13 v. Army -120 (1 unit)
 
RetroVK said:
A little down on the irish, aye?
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In a vacuum I’m not. I see how the plays appear that I am but I actually think highly of them. I think Book is great for what they wanna do, return a ton of OL, have a Kamara like weapon in Armstrong, and couple really good TE. Not sure how much I believe in the WRs and I know that’s the big emphasis for them after watching the playoff games last year, they just lacked the weapons of elite clubs. I think they may struggle more to replace the heart of their defense, they lose some really good players throughout the middle and core of that group. I know they’ve got upperclassmen but I think they take step back there.

These fades of them have less to do with dislike of them and more to do with me really liking those opposing teams as huge dogs. I find myself attracted to mid sized dogs that don’t have to overcome a big talent deficit and/or they do something unique like run the option and possessions are at a premium.
 
M.O.T said:
Interested to hear more thoughts on Texas. I have them circled as a potential value team in the second half of the season but seems like they have an awful lot of pieces to replace early in the season. That much confidence in Ehlinger carrying them through the growing pains, or the younger talent stepping in with minimal issues?
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I think Ehlinger is terrific and believe he and the ground game can carry them through most of their season. Todd Orlando remains so tough to run the ball on so I kinda handicap their opponents as if they are one dimensional. A lot of the Texas love stems from a macro trend that I play every time and that is Herman as a dog. I believe he’s something like 18-2 ATS as a dog dating back to his time as OC at tOSU and roughly 12-2 ATS with 9 SU wins as HC of Houston and Texas. He just gets the best from his team in these spots. I rarely find myself squarely (pun intended) in the camp of a trendy team in the pre season but I love them this year. I think they are the best team in the B12 with Oklahoma a close second. I know they have to replace LJH at WR and a bunch on defense, but I like their skill talent they’ve assembled, I think Ingram is a budding star at RB and should help take some pressure off SE and I trust Orlando to get his guys to play on defense. They’ve got a pro on all levels so I’m trusting they can help anchor them. I just think highly of this staff and their ability to play in big games. Ehlinger has the Tebow thing going for him where he elevates and brings guys with him.
 
louie0122 said:
CK, do still see some value in these at their current numbers?
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Sorry I just logged back on and saw this almost two months old. You will need to be more specific about which lines. I’ll be honest, I’m not great at answering these hypotheticals, but I’m willing to be direct and tell you how I feel.
 
Great to see all this today. I saw CG beat GN to the punch outta nowhere. Remember the old days? Ha, things have grown.
 
B.A.R. said:
Great to see all this today. I saw CG beat GN to the punch outta nowhere. Remember the old days? Ha, things have grown.
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Some of these are fanduel in jersey as well. Was able to get a few up there through a friend. I figured they would cancel the Colorado line but I was told that domestic books don't do that like off-shore, they honor their mistakes. Pretty cool!
 
Good breakdown of Texas. Agree that Herman is money as a dog, and with Johnson returning I don’t think they miss LJH as much either. They basically swapped roles last year from what was expected. I just hope they don’t have their lines quite figured out in week 2.
 
M.O.T said:
Good breakdown of Texas. Agree that Herman is money as a dog, and with Johnson returning I don’t think they miss LJH as much either. They basically swapped roles last year from what was expected. I just hope they don’t have their lines quite figured out in week 2.
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The thing that LJH did well was provide versatility. He's an incredibly intelligent football player that allowed him to be a chess piece and line up all over the field. Johnson is different in that he's just a protypical X who you line up outside and let him run vertical routes. I was kinda hoping they were gonna use Jordan Whittington to take over LJH role but they decided to move him to RB instead, where he was incredible in camp as EE. Check out his game in the Texas state championship last year - insanity! Think they will prob be more by committee from the slot but Jake Smith is a young kid thats gonna be good. I did the resarch recently and Herman's 10 year averages for QB are 259-417-3030-24-11 passing and 200-864-11 rushing while his RB1 is 185-990-9 rushing and 22 catches. They are gonna wanna lean on the ground game to mash teams, may be tougher against LSU than any other team in their conference though.
 
CrimsonK said:
Sorry I just logged back on and saw this almost two months old. You will need to be more specific about which lines. I’ll be honest, I’m not great at answering these hypotheticals, but I’m willing to be direct and tell you how I feel.
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How about week 2 with Texas at +3 against LSU and A&M down to +15 against Clemson?

Thanks in advance
 
I just hope Lewerke is still legit healthy in Week 11. hopefully his shoulder is recovered and hopefully he‘s more careful about sliding than say in the bowl game vs wazzou
 
louie0122 said:
How about week 2 with Texas at +3 against LSU and A&M down to +15 against Clemson?

Thanks in advance
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I think Texas will win the game but I think at this point I may wait to bet it because the number could be better week of game. Prob same for aTm.
 
survive&advance said:
What do you think of Zach Wilson? I didn’t catch a ton of BYU games last year but i liked what I saw out of the freshman
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He's awesome. Weren't a ton of TrFR QB that got to get extended work LY but he was amongst the best. Think he's got the makings of an NFL QB. Not sure he's ever gonna have great production unless he can replicate more 18/18s like the bowl game but he is going to help give this team a high floor for next few years.
 
Cant wait for the season man. Curious do you have any Conference, Win totals, Heisman, or Championship futures you have placed yet? BOL this year again!
 
Bossman71 said:
Cant wait for the season man. Curious do you have any Conference, Win totals, Heisman, or Championship futures you have placed yet? BOL this year again!
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I took Fields at 40/1 to win heisman before he was ruled eligible. Haven’t seen anything that really interested me beyond that. Makes me physically ill to say but I kinda wish I hit Shea Patterson at 100/1 before it got beat up.

I don’t think I’ve done much else. I would have to go through my pending stuff but don’t recall having done much nor seen tons of options in those markets.
 
CrimsonK said:
I took Fields at 40/1 to win heisman before he was ruled eligible. Haven’t seen anything that really interested me beyond that. Makes me physically ill to say but I kinda wish I hit Shea Patterson at 100/1 before it got beat up.

I don’t think I’ve done much else. I would have to go through my pending stuff but don’t recall having done much nor seen tons of options in those markets.
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DMC will play a lot this season. Patterson will put up excellent numbers, no doubt but the plan is to get both a lot of reps and perhaps in at the same time in some packages. The QB depth chart is an embarrassment of riches, so in today's climate you have to keep guys happy.
 
Would appreciate your thoughts on Auburn +7 vs Florida, and Cin +7 vs Memphis? The numbers are still close to where to you grabbed them, so I'm assuming you still see value at these numbers?
 
louie0122 said:
Would appreciate your thoughts on Auburn +7 vs Florida, and Cin +7 vs Memphis? The numbers are still close to where to you grabbed them, so I'm assuming you still see value at these numbers?
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I do like both there.

I think the Aub/UF features two relatively even teams. Edge to UF to start the year with Auburn QB cutting teeth. They will be about as battle tested as any team though by then and QB should have his sea legs. Thing with GOYs are you’re trying to capture value that may not be there come game week. I don’t know that this thing gets up to 10 on game week but I think it’s possible we could see something slightly closer to 8 than 7. Could be worth the wait in what should be a low-scoring slug fest.

Cincy is just a better team than Memphis, imo. I still think Memphis is capped by White at QB. One thing I’ve noted is that cincy has shown some struggles with mobile QBs of late but White can’t move. I prefer this one of the two bets at this juncture. With this game being the finale, better chance that the sample is large enough where my hypothesis of cincy being better and a good matchup present value.
 
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