GameHunter
Pretty much a regular
2018 BELMONT STAKES
It’s going to be an exciting day today at Belmont. I like to proceed with a bit of caution when posting previews. As many who follow me know, I crushed it at the Preakness and did very well in the Derby. I don’t always win so please don’t expect me to be spot on every time. Please use this guide to better understand the ten athletes running today in helping you formulate your own opinions, as much, or more, than just blindly following mine.
Now, more importantly, I don’t ask for any direct benefit from my followers. However, I do ask followers, particularly those who appreciate my extensive posts and those who have made money betting major race events (or baseball) from my posts to step up and make a difference.
While in today’s Belmont Stakes you will see the “game’s” top three-year-old athletes, there is a HUGE problem in the racing industry. Often times, less successful horses are discarded and in several instances, heartless owners and trainers sell their non-profitable horses to the kill lots to be shipped to slaughter. It’s HORRIFIC! The problem is rampant in Louisiana where MANY horses are discarded and sent to kill lots to be sent to Mexico to be slaughtered. Less than a month ago, we were able to help rescue 17 of such horses, many of whom had raced just weeks earlier at tracks in Louisiana. The pictures of how they are treated and the sadness in their faces is heart wrenching. Outcries from many to Louisiana horse officials, horsemen and the government have fallen on deaf ears and the problem is worse than ever. I will never wager one dollar on a Louisiana track until the problem is properly addressed. Remember, a portion of every dollar bet into race pools goes to the state and horsemen at such track.
I am asking followers for two things.
1. Boycott betting on Louisiana tracks and use your voice to make a difference. Please post #BoycottLouisianaTracks on Twitter and/or Instagram and let’s try and make a difference that people do care about all horses and that our voice is heard.
2. There are some outstanding charities that rescue horses. They are 100% legit. I ask that many of you make some sort of donation to charities that rescue horses. I am very fond of these two causes and vouch for the love and passion they put into saving so many beautiful animals and the great use they make of donations:
https://www.icareihelp.com/
https://www.adoptahorse.org (Standardbred Retirement Foundation)
PLEASE STEP UP TODAY AND MAKE A DONATION! Let them know GameHunter sent you so we can show that our Twitter family makes an impact. I have no direct affiliation with these charities other than being thankful about the care and love they give in saving and caring for the athletes of this great sport.
Now, on to handicapping. As I preached in my Derby preview, as there are many beginners who may read this, when handicapping a race, the key it not necessarily to pick the most likely horse to win the race, rather to find the best value. In this year’s Belmont, there’s no doubt that Justified is the most likely horse to win this race. That is why he is the favorite and his odds will be the shortest; however, the key may be to find a horse that may be slightly less likely to win, but based upon his much higher odds, offers the best value. Simply put, let’s say there was a three horse race and I told you #1 would win 50% of the time, #2 will win 30% of the time and #3 will win 20% of the time. Who would you pick to win? If you answered the question already, you are getting left back to repeat this course. You don’t have enough information. The key to betting on horse racing is VALUE and you would need to know more about the odds to ascertain where the value is. Now, let me add in the odds in this fictitious horse race, #1 is 1:2 odds, #2 is 2-1 odds and #3 is 6 to 1. So, if we run this race 100 times, and you bet $2 to win on each, #1 would be a losing proposition (-$50) winning 50% of the time, #2 would be a losing proposition (-$20) winning 30% of the time and #3 would be a winning proposition (+$40) winning 20% of the time. So the best value would be #3 despite the fact that he is the least likely to win.
Lesson: Look for the best value.
#1 JUSTIFY – There’s something about a horse seeking the Triple Crown that just brings magic to the Sport of Kings. Overcame the Curse of Apollo becoming the first horse in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby not having races as a two year old.
His Derby effort was eye lifting but while the win in the Preakness was nice, many consider it somewhat pedestrian in that it was a weak field and the time and splits were far from awe inspiring. His sheet number regressed a bit in the Preakness. Let’s face it. He’s a super horse (5 for 5 so far) but I don’t see Secretariat here. He is one of only two today that have raced in all three Triple Crown events, which makes this his 3rd race in 5 weeks against better-rested foes. In addition, it’s his 6th race in less than 4 months and the last two in the mud have been demanding. He also isn’t bred as well as several others here for the demanding 1 ½ mile distance. It’s tough for me to see Justify putting up a figure in the Belmont like he did in the Derby, however, that is not to say he can’t win this. His chances increase if it rains heavily on Saturday as three of his 5 wins have been on off tracks. Regardless, if he gets an easy lead in a comfortable pace, everyone else will be running for minor spoils. He has one of the greatest trainers of all time in Bob Baffert. As stated above, Justify is the most likely winner but that doesn’t necessarily “JUSTIFY” investing at odds that will likely be 2:5 ($2.80 on a $2 bet). If you bet against the last 13 horses entering the Belmont Stakes seeking the Triple Crown, you would only have lost once (American Pharoah). He’s obviously a must use at the top of tickets but I will be using several horses on the top of exotic tickets hoping to beat him.
#2 FREE DROP BILLY – One of the longshots in the field. Do we toss him out? I say, “NO” but check the weather. If the track is sloppy, I would toss him but it looks like the rain is now out of the forecast. Small chestnut colt that should love extra distance as he is bred out of 2012 Belmont winner, Union Rags. Won the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland
as a two year old, putting away Bravazo as he high stepped down the stretch but flopped at the Breeders Cup in the Juvenile after making a strong middle move up the dead rail. Steady pattern as a three year old until the Derby where he absolutely flopped and word I heard from insiders who know the owners is he hated the sloppy track. Ran a strong figure when wide in the Bluegrass prior to the Derby. Several of his early races found him pinned down on the inside and dealing with traffic so this position in the #2 post (same as Derby) is nothing new for him. His sheet numbers are decent and he’s got a shot in here if the track condition is FAST. Has hit the board in 7 out of 8 career races and comes in off 5 weeks rest. If the track condition isn’t sloppy, I will be using “Billy” in the mix.
#3 BRAVAZO – Personally, his run in the Preakenss was bittersweet for me as his explosive finish helped me cash big on the trifectas and superfectas, but the fact that I made a sizeable play on him to win on a prop bet at +4050 (his true odds were 15:1), left me dreaming about the laundry bags full of cash I would have been carrying home that day. Bravazo’s 6th place effort in the Derby was way better than many realized. He had a horrendous trip and had to travel a further distance than any other horse in the race. My notes leading up to the Derby read, “After two wins to start 2018, including a game nose win in the Risen Star, he turned in puzzlingly poor performance in the Louisiana Derby, finishing eighth and beaten by 21 ¼ lengths. In that race, he traveled four wide through the backstretch in a stalking position, lugged out entering the far turn, and then folded. His prior two wins as a 3-year-old came after he closely pressed the pace, but he settled farther back in the Louisiana Derby and that may have cost him. He has failed to show up in a few races, which is a concern. He’s not fast enough.” Thankfully, my opinion changed before the Preakness. He has some tactical versatility and should be right off the lead early. He has handled long distances on sloppy mud well, however, the bottom side of his pedigree raises serious questions for excelling at a mile and a half. He is the only other horse here, other than Justify, to run in all three Triple Crown events. Quite frankly, my opinion has changed again. If the track comes up fast, I do not like Bravazo. I think they are asking too much of him here in a short period of time and he has not proven he is fast enough to me on a fast track. If it’s sloppy again, I will sprinkle him into the bottom of exotic bets.
It’s going to be an exciting day today at Belmont. I like to proceed with a bit of caution when posting previews. As many who follow me know, I crushed it at the Preakness and did very well in the Derby. I don’t always win so please don’t expect me to be spot on every time. Please use this guide to better understand the ten athletes running today in helping you formulate your own opinions, as much, or more, than just blindly following mine.
Now, more importantly, I don’t ask for any direct benefit from my followers. However, I do ask followers, particularly those who appreciate my extensive posts and those who have made money betting major race events (or baseball) from my posts to step up and make a difference.
While in today’s Belmont Stakes you will see the “game’s” top three-year-old athletes, there is a HUGE problem in the racing industry. Often times, less successful horses are discarded and in several instances, heartless owners and trainers sell their non-profitable horses to the kill lots to be shipped to slaughter. It’s HORRIFIC! The problem is rampant in Louisiana where MANY horses are discarded and sent to kill lots to be sent to Mexico to be slaughtered. Less than a month ago, we were able to help rescue 17 of such horses, many of whom had raced just weeks earlier at tracks in Louisiana. The pictures of how they are treated and the sadness in their faces is heart wrenching. Outcries from many to Louisiana horse officials, horsemen and the government have fallen on deaf ears and the problem is worse than ever. I will never wager one dollar on a Louisiana track until the problem is properly addressed. Remember, a portion of every dollar bet into race pools goes to the state and horsemen at such track.
I am asking followers for two things.
1. Boycott betting on Louisiana tracks and use your voice to make a difference. Please post #BoycottLouisianaTracks on Twitter and/or Instagram and let’s try and make a difference that people do care about all horses and that our voice is heard.
2. There are some outstanding charities that rescue horses. They are 100% legit. I ask that many of you make some sort of donation to charities that rescue horses. I am very fond of these two causes and vouch for the love and passion they put into saving so many beautiful animals and the great use they make of donations:
https://www.icareihelp.com/
https://www.adoptahorse.org (Standardbred Retirement Foundation)
PLEASE STEP UP TODAY AND MAKE A DONATION! Let them know GameHunter sent you so we can show that our Twitter family makes an impact. I have no direct affiliation with these charities other than being thankful about the care and love they give in saving and caring for the athletes of this great sport.
Now, on to handicapping. As I preached in my Derby preview, as there are many beginners who may read this, when handicapping a race, the key it not necessarily to pick the most likely horse to win the race, rather to find the best value. In this year’s Belmont, there’s no doubt that Justified is the most likely horse to win this race. That is why he is the favorite and his odds will be the shortest; however, the key may be to find a horse that may be slightly less likely to win, but based upon his much higher odds, offers the best value. Simply put, let’s say there was a three horse race and I told you #1 would win 50% of the time, #2 will win 30% of the time and #3 will win 20% of the time. Who would you pick to win? If you answered the question already, you are getting left back to repeat this course. You don’t have enough information. The key to betting on horse racing is VALUE and you would need to know more about the odds to ascertain where the value is. Now, let me add in the odds in this fictitious horse race, #1 is 1:2 odds, #2 is 2-1 odds and #3 is 6 to 1. So, if we run this race 100 times, and you bet $2 to win on each, #1 would be a losing proposition (-$50) winning 50% of the time, #2 would be a losing proposition (-$20) winning 30% of the time and #3 would be a winning proposition (+$40) winning 20% of the time. So the best value would be #3 despite the fact that he is the least likely to win.
Lesson: Look for the best value.
#1 JUSTIFY – There’s something about a horse seeking the Triple Crown that just brings magic to the Sport of Kings. Overcame the Curse of Apollo becoming the first horse in 136 years to win the Kentucky Derby not having races as a two year old.
#2 FREE DROP BILLY – One of the longshots in the field. Do we toss him out? I say, “NO” but check the weather. If the track is sloppy, I would toss him but it looks like the rain is now out of the forecast. Small chestnut colt that should love extra distance as he is bred out of 2012 Belmont winner, Union Rags. Won the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland
#3 BRAVAZO – Personally, his run in the Preakenss was bittersweet for me as his explosive finish helped me cash big on the trifectas and superfectas, but the fact that I made a sizeable play on him to win on a prop bet at +4050 (his true odds were 15:1), left me dreaming about the laundry bags full of cash I would have been carrying home that day. Bravazo’s 6th place effort in the Derby was way better than many realized. He had a horrendous trip and had to travel a further distance than any other horse in the race. My notes leading up to the Derby read, “After two wins to start 2018, including a game nose win in the Risen Star, he turned in puzzlingly poor performance in the Louisiana Derby, finishing eighth and beaten by 21 ¼ lengths. In that race, he traveled four wide through the backstretch in a stalking position, lugged out entering the far turn, and then folded. His prior two wins as a 3-year-old came after he closely pressed the pace, but he settled farther back in the Louisiana Derby and that may have cost him. He has failed to show up in a few races, which is a concern. He’s not fast enough.” Thankfully, my opinion changed before the Preakness. He has some tactical versatility and should be right off the lead early. He has handled long distances on sloppy mud well, however, the bottom side of his pedigree raises serious questions for excelling at a mile and a half. He is the only other horse here, other than Justify, to run in all three Triple Crown events. Quite frankly, my opinion has changed again. If the track comes up fast, I do not like Bravazo. I think they are asking too much of him here in a short period of time and he has not proven he is fast enough to me on a fast track. If it’s sloppy again, I will sprinkle him into the bottom of exotic bets.
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