2018/2019 NCAAF Futures

CrimsonK

CrimsonK

Sid Bream Supporter
Hope everybody is having a great year so far! Have played a couple RSW's at BetDSI since they (surprsingly) opened yesterday. Only SEC teams so far but hopefully the full menu is forthcoming. Have a couple others I like and am working throiugh but these two were no-brainers for me.

RSW's:

Mississippi State Over 8 -110
Tennessee Under 5.5 -115

Have taken a few Heisman and Natty futures as well but not sure I'll post all those lotto tickets. Will add stuff to this thread as I add and happy to answer questions.
 
Looks good bud.

I know they put those up and then took them down pretty quick yesterday (I never looked back later in day).

Was there any significant movement? I am guessing the limits are pretty low.
 
B.A.R. said:
Looks good bud.

I know they put those up and then took them down pretty quick yesterday (I never looked back later in day).

Was there any significant movement? I am guessing the limits are pretty low.
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They are back up. Not sure what the deal was with that but they have the full SEC card back up. Actually they havent moved much. Ive been peppering NFL Draft props across the board and those suckers are running like a Marlin on a line. I don't know that lotta people are very prepared and or willing to tie up money for so long. Will be interesting to see how other books value DSI opinion and how the market has shaped them. I'm holdijg off on two other ones that I'm hoping for a half game better once the rest of offshores release.
 
Do you remember when GOYs were released at certain spots last year? I feel like it's close...
 
Limited to 1 unit right now and had to pay extra 10c per but was able to get some GOY openers. Can field any questions next week.

Sept. 8
Georgia at South Carolina +11 -120 (1 unit)
USC at Stanford Stanford -2 -120 (1 unit)
Iowa State +7 at Iowa -120 (1 unit)

Sept. 15
Houston +7 at Texas Tech -120 (1 unit)
USC at Texas +1 -120 (1 unit)
UCF at UNC +11 -120 (1 unit)

Sept. 29
Stanford +8 at Notre Dame -120 (1 unit)

Oct. 6
Florida State +8 at Miami -120 (1 unit)
Texas +12 vs. Oklahoma -120 (1 unit)

Oct. 13
Washington at Oregon +10 -120 (1 unit)

Oct. 20
Florida Atlantic at Marshall +8 -120 (1 unit)

Oct. 27
Florida +15 vs. Georgia -120 (1 unit)

Nov. 17
Arizona vs. Oregon -9 -120 (1 unit)
 
CK, thanks for posting. Can you let me know where this is from and when you got them? Assume yesterday 5D openers? Just curious. Some serious movement. This is what I got from South Point today after your post:

SC +14 vs. +11 - only one didn't go your way
Stan -3 vs. -1
ISU +4 vs +7 No Play

Hou +7 vs. +7
Tex -3 vs. -1
UNC +7 vs. +11 No Play

Stan +6 vs. +8 No Play

FSU +8 vs. +8
Tex +12 vs. +6 No Play

Org +7 vs. +10 No Play

Mar +6 vs. +8 No Play

Fla +13 vs. +15 No Play

Org -13 vs. -9 No Play - also assume you mean AZ ST. not AZ.

If you would still play the ones I didn't please let me know. Was hoping to get all your plays in fairly close to your lines but not to be. Still appreciate you posting so soon and letting us know. thanks.
 
Long story to explain fully but these are south point openers through a local. He charges me more and limits what I can do but I referred a true bookies dream client to him that prob paid off his house so he allows me to do some creative stuff but these are all direct south point openers from this week. Thanks for giving me updated lines, glad I’ve done well so far.

I did mean AZ St, thanks. I would still play Florida getting 13 against UgA but may wait on the others to see if you can get some key numbers later on.
 
thanks CK. Actually figured that was the case after I posted. I took my money out of 5D but still have the account open and some pending bets and I don't see GOY there yet unless I just missed somehow. I always thought they were first, like with the 1st week lines. So I guess it's all SP at this point. Some good grabs for you as always. One benefit I got is my bets were all -110. I'll wait and hope the lines come back a little (and not because the team is stinking it up). I like Stanford a lot too - also played them +11 vs. Wash. And ND -6 vs. NW. Only two I played on my own. thanks again and have a great Memorial weekend.
 
B.A.R. said:
So, high on Stanford? No qualms there.
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Yes and no. I do think they will be a good team. The upper/middle of the P12 should be nice this year. Offense gets everybody back and we saw what they were capable of time last year once they figured out Costello was a solid QB. Questions are on defense but I give them the benefit of the doubt, year over year. I’m looking to fade USC early while they figure out their QB (I have bet against them first three weeks). Stan/ND wasn’t a game that I had circled but saw the 8 and it felt a bit rich. I actually really like ND this year too but if the game comes down to who can throw it better, I prefer Stanford’s options unless Wimbush takes a major step forward as a passer, which I wouldn’t be shocked by, but the (essentially) two scores was enough.
 
CrimsonK said:
Yes and no. I do think they will be a good team. The upper/middle of the P12 should be nice this year. Offense gets everybody back and we saw what they were capable of time last year once they figured out Costello was a solid QB. Questions are on defense but I give them the benefit of the doubt, year over year. I’m looking to fade USC early while they figure out their QB (I have bet against them first three weeks). Stan/ND wasn’t a game that I had circled but saw the 8 and it felt a bit rich. I actually really like ND this year too but if the game comes down to who can throw it better, I prefer Stanford’s options unless Wimbush takes a major step forward as a passer, which I wouldn’t be shocked by, but the (essentially) two scores was enough.
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Sorry guys, out of country and technical difficulty trying to post.

All 1 unit:

Arizona State Under 5 Wins +100
Buffalo Over 6.5 wins -110
Central Michigan Over 4 wins -120
Colorado State Over 5.5 Wins -110
Hawaii Over 3.5 wins -120
Houston Over 7.5 Wins -110
Louisiana Lafayette Over 5 wins +100
Marshall Over 7.5 wins -110
Missouri Under 7.5 wins -110
Temple Over 6.5 wins -110
Utah Over 7 wins -110
Western Kentucky Over 4.5 wins +100
 
CrimsonK said:
Long story to explain fully but these are south point openers through a local. He charges me more and limits what I can do but I referred a true bookies dream client to him that prob paid off his house so he allows me to do some creative stuff but these are all direct south point openers from this week. Thanks for giving me updated lines, glad I’ve done well so far.

I did mean AZ St, thanks. I would still play Florida getting 13 against UgA but may wait on the others to see if you can get some key numbers later on.
Click to expand...
Love to hear the reference story.....

Messy St be scrappy this year...think the QB situation goes how? The D line should be nasty...
 
twinkie13 said:
Love to hear the reference story.....

Messy St be scrappy this year...think the QB situation goes how? The D line should be nasty...
Click to expand...
Without disparaging a friend of mine too badly: have a friend who does well financially. He went to school out west and we stayed in touch afterwards but weren’t really as close. He reached out one day and we start talking. He asks me if I have a local plug, I say yes. Asks if I can make connection, no problem I’ll vouch. We know the story, he wins big for a bit and then he just goes full tilt degenerate and loses near 6 figures. Fortunately, he set up plan and sorted it pretty quick, had to come clean to wife and now has put it on ice but my local loves me now. Allowed me to get some south point and 5d mirror as a favor at his shop if I pay a little tax. Works great for me with the way I like to get down at open and I don’t have any connects in Vegas.

Messy been pointing towards the 2018 year for years now. Fitzy is the guy but if he re injures then KT will be more than serviceable. Agree about that front, some elite DL in the SEC this year. QB and DL play have potential to be best in conf in many years.
 
twinkie13 said:
Love to hear the reference story.....

Messy St be scrappy this year...think the QB situation goes how? The D line should be nasty...
Click to expand...
Without disparaging a friend of mine too badly: have a friend who does well financially. He went to school out west and we stayed in touch afterwards but weren’t really as close. He reached out one day and we start talking. He asks me if I have a local plug, I say yes. Asks if I can make connection, no problem I’ll vouch. We know the story, he wins big for a bit and then he just goes full tilt degenerate and loses near 6 figures. Fortunately, he set up plan and sorted it pretty quick, had to come clean to wife and now has put it on ice but my local loves me now. Allowed me to get some south point and 5d mirror as a favor at his shop if I pay a little tax. Works great for me with the way I like to get down at open and I don’t have any connects in Vegas.

Messy been pointing towards the 2018 year for years now. Fitzy is the guy but if he re injures then KT will be more than serviceable. Agree about that front, some elite DL in the SEC this year. QB and DL play have potential to be best in conf in many years.
 
Some 5d futures:

USA Today Final Poll - Most Points

Utah -120 v. Texas Tech (1 unit)
TCU -140 v. UCLA (1 unit)
Boise State +100 v. Kansas State (1 unit)
Arizona -110 v. Nebraska (1 unit)
 
CrimsonK said:
Without disparaging a friend of mine too badly: have a friend who does well financially. He went to school out west and we stayed in touch afterwards but weren’t really as close. He reached out one day and we start talking. He asks me if I have a local plug, I say yes. Asks if I can make connection, no problem I’ll vouch. We know the story, he wins big for a bit and then he just goes full tilt degenerate and loses near 6 figures. Fortunately, he set up plan and sorted it pretty quick, had to come clean to wife and now has put it on ice but my local loves me now. Allowed me to get some south point and 5d mirror as a favor at his shop if I pay a little tax. Works great for me with the way I like to get down at open and I don’t have any connects in Vegas.

Messy been pointing towards the 2018 year for years now. Fitzy is the guy but if he re injures then KT will be more than serviceable. Agree about that front, some elite DL in the SEC this year. QB and DL play have potential to be best in conf in many years.
Click to expand...

I'm interested in seeing what Moorhead does with Fitz. Their WRs are average as is their OL. They probably won't need to score much because their front 7 will be nasty.
 
Grovehard said:
I'm interested in seeing what Moorhead does with Fitz. Their WRs are average as is their OL. They probably won't need to score much because their front 7 will be nasty.
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I think much of the WR quality will be determined by the new blood. Only player I like from the former regime is Austin Williams. Looks like Malik Heath is an academic casualty for sure, Guidry had their weird stuff on twitter and I'm not all the optimistic he plays, and then Jason looks like he may have to play a big role early.

I believe it was the Penn State/Minnesota game couple years back where Jo Mo finally let McSorley loose with his legs and then that offense just never looked back. McSorley is a much better passer on vertical routes than Fitz (PFF had him as amongst the worst deep passers LY) and I think his ability to improve that will be key for them. Fitz a much more dangerous runner. I like the A-Train and I love Kylin Hill so I think they will also do some leaning on the ground game if the game script goes to plan with the defense carrying the water at times.
 
9/5
Miss St -2.5 at Kansas State -120 (1 unit)
South Carolina +14.5 v UGA -120 (1 unit)

9/22
Iowa +10.5 v Wisconsin -120 (1 unit)

10/6
Mississippi State +7 v Auburn -120 (1 unit)

10/27
Mississippi State -4 v aTM -120 (1 unit)

11/8-11/10
NC State -5 v Wake -120 (1 unit)
Mississippi State +19.5 @ Bama -120 (1 unit)

11/24
Arkansas +13 @ Missouri -120 (1 unit)
Arizona -5.5 v Arizona State -120 (1 unit)
 
B.A.R. said:
Talk to me about Messy St in general.
Click to expand...
This is the year they’ve been building for. Everything has been pointing to 2018 as the year. Obviously, Mullen now won’t be there to enjoy the fruits of his labor, but I like the staff they’ve put together, particularly on offense. Really like the offense in its’ entirety. I touched on it somewhere with Grove but the WRs will be the question, and I think they have a combination of enough bodies and enough talent to be effective. Vet QB in Fitz and now a backup that I feel confident in his ability to fill in and play at a high level if Fitz were to reinjure his ankle. Think Williams and Hill make up the most under rated RB duo in the conf and they should both have big years. Moorhead one of my favorite play callers and I like how he can fit with this group. Key will be Fitz being accurate on deep balls, which he hasn’t been in past (but he was an option QB in HS and most teams wanted him to be a TE in college so he’s still growing) but he will be working them a bunch this off season.

Defense is nasty. Loaded at every level. Elite players on the DL, tremendous linebackers, and a mix of vets and talented, albeit relatively unproven, guys in secondary. Don’t love the DC hire but I’m trying to forgive him for his recent stops.

Just don’t see any holes. Don’t see a single game on the schedule where they can’t compete.
 
Have a few props from Bovada I forgot to post the other day. 1 unit

David Sills Under 15.5 receiving TD +100
Myles Gaskin Under 18.5 rush TD -110
Nick Fitzgerald Over 21.5 pass TD -110
Trace McSorley Over 25.5 pass TD -120
 
Taking Utah over 7 wins with that schedule....hope you're right. If they stay healthy this should be their best year since joining the Pac. All camp reports I've seen suggest they are way ahead of last year and deeper at every position. OL will be the key, they struggled in pass protection last year but 4 of 5 are returning. I hope you hit it.
 
CrimsonK said:
Have a few props from Bovada I forgot to post the other day. 1 unit

David Sills Under 15.5 receiving TD +100
Myles Gaskin Under 18.5 rush TD -110
Nick Fitzgerald Over 21.5 pass TD -110
Trace McSorley Over 25.5 pass TD -120
Click to expand...
I like both those QB ones quite a lot.
 
Bossman71 said:
Love the thread. Was looking through your RSW bets and noticed you got some amazing #s. Are there any games you would not bet at current market value? I was using S&Os as a avg line value.... http://props.scoresandodds.com/section_display.cfm?event=2018 NCAA Football Regular Season Wins (Teams Must Play all Scheduled Opponents)&sporttype=511&startdate=8/20/2018

Thanks!
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Thanks! I am not great at hypotheticals like this. I think I would still play them but perhaps for less in the instances where there has been major adjustments. Temple is the only one I've since loked back over and not felt as confident about. Gonna need to win most the toss ups.
 
CrimsonK said:
Thanks! I am not great at hypotheticals like this. I think I would still play them but perhaps for less in the instances where there has been major adjustments. Temple is the only one I've since loked back over and not felt as confident about. Gonna need to win most the toss ups.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply. I was mainly just referring to most lines have moved .5 games in your favor (Oregon a full game). Except for around 4-5 bets. Didnt know if that swayed any teams to a NO BET for you...
 
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