Without going into too much detail, the bullpen gave up 298 runs last season, well above the league average of 211. They were the worst team by 30 runs. Through natural improvement and variance that number should not be as high. Regressing it only halfway to the league average is 43 runs (and would still make this number the second worst team last season behind Houston). With the exception of de la Rosa, Hawkins and maybe Betancourt the pitching staff is relatively young, average age around 26-27. So there is improvement there. Even if the starters as a group improve by 27 runs (which is only 1 run every 6 games, or the ERA from last season by about 0.25), it brings the total runs down by 70.
That’s a basic view of it. Even if they bring the total down by 70 and not 100, then that is only 3 wins difference, still around the .500 mark.
I see where you are coming from, but I think you are ignoring the affect Coors Field has on starting pitchers. The Colorado bullpen is needed at a higher rate than normal. Trust me, I'm with you on regressing bullpens to average rankings as it is a large part of my model. But, the Rockies are an exception, imo. I took the Rox last year bc on paper their bullpen was improved greatly, but I feel like I learned the error in my ways:
Rockies Bullpen:
2014: 525.2 IP- 298 runs National League average of 207 runs
2013: 555.2IP- 278 runs National League average of 209 runs
2012: 657.0 IP- 354 runs National League average of 225 runs
2011: 508.2 IP- 243 runs National League average of 209 runs
Pecota projects their relievers to throw 547 innings. To be optimistic, lets say the relievers throw 525 innings. Again, lets be optimistic and say 4.25 ERA. That's 248 runs right there and add a 15-20 unearned runs (say 15) and you are at 263 runs. Lets just say 265 runs, which would be well below average for them over the past 4 years.
Pecota has the primary 5 starters with the following ERAs:
DLR 165 IP-4.58 ERA
Lyles 154 IP 5.30 ERA
Chacin 160 IP 4.28 ERA
Matzek 137 IP 5.55 ERA
Kendrick 168 IP 5.35 ERA
Lets just use 1,445 innings overall 8.92 innings per game. The starters would then throw 920 innings. Lets be optimistic and say 4.5 ERA.......460 runs plus 40 unearned.....500 runs. This gets the Rockies to 765 runs allowed......which is pretty optimistic, imo.
They scored 747 runs last year and did not help the offense so lets say 750 runs. That's a 79 win team and seems to be pretty optimistic case.
Good luck, just my thoughts.
As am I.
