2015 NHL Playoff Discussion

YoungGun11 said:
Caps could easily get hot and surprise with scoring power and hot goaltending, I think Henrik has been a bit shakey this year and Rangers scoring can go cold from time to time.

Hot damn is it nice to see playoffs without Boston, La, and I wish Shitsburgh.
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it's a pick your poison with the wash/nyi series...you wanna back halak or holtby? both have been hot and cold, do like the d for the islanders a tad bit better
 
YoungGun11 said:
Hot damn is it nice to see playoffs without Boston, La, and I wish Shitsburgh.
Click to expand...

Hey, hey, easy now.

How could you not be sick of Detroit & Chicago also?

I do agree on your thoughts on Minn. Gonna see if they lose Thursday though & shoot for a better series price, could obviously fuck myself by doing so.
 
I'm a sucker for the dog odds on my pens... got pens +220 to win the series
 
I was intending on jumping back in on Ottawa to win the series if they lost game 1, but I may reevaluate depending on the injury situation.

Some observations from Nashville:
Kane started slow, but his return has completely changed the Hawks PP. Toward the end of the year they had a lot of difficulty establishing and maintaining possession in the zone. This was not the case yesterday, mainly due to him. Darling absolutely stood on his head in that game, allowing for the Hawks to make that big comeback. Will be interesting to see how Nashville responds after an emotional loss like that, especially given their relative inexperience. Nashville D is loaded and Seth Jones is gonna be a heck of a player. I'd assume crawford starts game 2, but we will find out today for sure. I only put the 2nd goal on him, as 1 was on an atrocious play by Rosival and the 3rd was a deflection in front. Rosival is a major liability, causing depth concerns with Chicago D pairings. They try and mask him by pairing him with Keith for stretches but he can kill you regardless. Should be a fun series.
 
Stone with a microfracture in his wrist

that series is going to be a bigger gong show than it already was now, might take the over in game 2 just based on the fact there will be at least 10+ minors with the refs trying to keep the play someone clean
 
Not sure what the outcry is against Stone... maybe a bit embelished... but a composite stick two hander across the wrist hurts like a son of a bitch.

Should be an even more interesting series now.

Didn't catch any of the Flames game... any take aways?
 
I agree Santa. Maybe had the dickbag not slid his hand up the stick like one would hold an axe before whacking him it wouldn't have been so bad. He knew what he was doing & deserved to get the boot, regardless of whether or not Stone came back.

Not sure what to take out of that game for the series. Hell of a battle. I wanted Ottawa at a better price had they lost game one, wish granted. On second thought, they needed the Subban 5 minute power play to net two of their 3 & the still lost with no Subban half the game.
 
Some updated thoughts after game 1's....
obviously 1 game does not make a series, so it's important to keep that in mind and not make any overreactions.

TB dominated Detroit bad. I'm not saying Detroit can't win this series, but if you liked TB before game 1, and you can get a good series price (say +140/+150 or so), I'd be pretty confident that TB can get this done even losing home ice advantage.
Pittsburgh actually played NYR pretty well after the 1p. Goes to show that if they can stay out of the penalty box and get regular pt for their top 6 forwards they are much better off. BUT, that being said, the Rangers played pretty poorly in my eyes. JT Miller was the only Ranger that I'd grade at or above his regular season level, the rest of the team just looked very hesitant and maybe nervous. I think they'll settle in. The biggest thing for me is still the lack of blue line depth for the Pens. Girardi did get dinged late for the Rangers, but I don't expect he'll miss any games - Rangers could really really use Klein back sooner rather than later too.
Huge game tonight for the Caps, as they just came out real flat in game 1. Isles are still a team that can look great for a game, and then totally lose it the next game. I'm hoping that the Caps win to make this a series, as I'm not sure they can fall behind by 2 and go to the Isle and take back the series. I fully expect them to win tonight.
And this Sens/HAbs series has the makings of a real humdinger, no? Holy hell that first game was full of spirit. I still think this series is about 50/50, maybe the most enjoyable to watch for a casual fan too. PRice will be the difference if the Canadians advance. I'm looking forward to tonights game already!

I watched bits and pieces of some west games, so no real thoughts, but damn that has to be a kick to the nuts for the Preds blowing that 3 goal lead. Wild looked good in game 1, glad I backed them. Vancouver may be in real trouble, I just don't see enough consistent offense around after the Sedins. Didn't see any of the Anaheim game, but hope they lose the series.
 
Talk around here this morning that Craig Anderson might start in place of Andrew Hammond. Seems a little odd to be jumping ship like this, but might be the kick in the ass needed to get the rest of the team to play a little more inspired.
 
First game 7 tonight, Caps/Isles.
This series has been pretty damn entertaining. Both teams are hitting everything in sight (sometimes at the loss of putting pucks on net, imo). Ovie has been pretty tame too, and I wonder if he'll show up big in this one.
I'll be honest, I didn't expect the Islanders to be able to hang. They only have 1 defensive pairing that is any good and I struggle to find much consistent scoring threat from anything outside of when Tavares is on the ice. But, give credit where it's due, and outside of game 5 where they threw a stinker, they've been all over the Caps and Holtby has been good.
Halak something like 6-1 now in elimination games, that's pretty sick.
I have the Caps on a series price, and was certainly hoping to see them end it in 6, but nothing better than game 7's, right?

I think the Lightning have been the most disappointing team in the playoffs - even moreseo than the Canucks. In my eyes, the Lightning have been terrible outside of the first game of the series. They may have outshot the Wings in most games, but the RedWings have outworked them and looked the better team. Anyone seen that #91 guy on TB of late? Definitely been terrible all series. Must win game for them here and I am not sure I see it. Barring the 2 goal miracle comeback in game 4 - over most of the games in Detroit, the Wings have been in control. Their goalie has been solid. I want TB to win here bad, but I wouldn't put any money on them doing so. I think Babcock is simply the better coach, and the Wings get it done here tonight too.

In the west, that Wild/Hawks series should be absolutely tremendous. I like the Wild there again. Wild have been playing terrific and Dubynk been great. Hawks have no idea who to play in goal and that's a huge issue.
And I do believe the Flames are going to be in for a pretty rude awakening here against Anaheim. Might be a woodshed job out there. I think the Ducks will realize they can't fall behind in games for much longer and expect comebacks. They are too big and too deep for this young Flames team, imo. Think we may get some goals in those games at least.
 
Zuccarello out indefinitely for the Rangers. Probably a concussion.
Very big blow here as it means St Louis - who has been fucking terrible, gets moved up to the top line. This line becomes largely ineffectual without Zucc - really should have pushed Hagelin or Fast up there.
Second and Third lines will still be solid and I actually prefer Shepperd on the 4th line now, I think this line will be very good (as far as 4th line's go).
I suppose if the Rangers want more offense they can bring Lindberg up for Glass maybe, but I don't see it.

Hoping Zucc only misses a week or two, but these things can certainly linger.
 
like the thoughts dylanphan

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I am wondering how the Flames do against the big forwards of Anaheim....could be a tough series for YYC but I hope the flames can at least push it to 6! Young skill/speed vs. veteran size/skill....Gotta think the Ducks do well here.
 
The series we know

Chicago -130
Minnesota +120

Price has drifted down slightly since it first opened at Minny +130. To me, this series is very very close, so you really just have to factor in how much you value the home ice advantage. Wild have been playing probably top 3 hockey in the entire NHL the past few months. Playing well at this time of the year usually bodes well in the playoffs. They have depth and are fairly solid up and down the board. They may lack the top end talent of the Hawks, but I think you'll see that they have become a very difficult team to play against. People look at the Blackhawks and they ooh and ahh over the likes of Toews, Hossa, Kane, Sharp, see good secondary pieces like Versteeg, see Duncan Keith, Seabrook, solid 6 defenseman, and what's not to like. They are playoff tested and have the home ice here. But, when push comes to shove, there are a few reasons I like the Wild here. First, they beat a very solid Blues team (who had home ice), and this Blues team was a real Stanley Cup threat. Further, the Blues had to know that they were the whipping boys for under achievers and had something to prove in this years playoffs. They bolstered an already solid team adding Stastny, and what happens? The Wild just do what they do and win. The Hawks on the other hand had a series against a severely limping Predators team who had been middling the past few months after a very strong start. The Preds also lose the heart and soul of their team early in the series when Weber goes down. The Hawks get it done, yes, but they did not really show a dominant form. The real sticking point here is goaltending. The Hawks have committed to starting Crawford in game 1, but I think it's 50/50 as to who gets more net time in this series. They don't know whom is the hot hand. This is a very dangerous situation in the playoffs to try to guess which goaltender is 'on' each night. The Wild have no such issue as they know who their gk is, and that guy outside of one game, has been awesome. I expect this series to be very tight and hard fought, should be fun to watch. I just have to go with the Wild here at plus odds, simply because they are the more in form team, with the better goaltending and I'm getting more bang for my buck. I will play this small for the series, and if it goes to game 7, will more than likely get better than +120 for the Wild in that game, so will just see how the series rides out.

The play - Minnesota Wild +120 for small (0.5 units)
 
The series we know part 2

Anaheim -210
Calgary +190

This one will be my shortest write up as I have seen very little of either team both in the regular season and the playoffs (damn late games).
At first blush, I would expect Anaheim to steam roll Calgary once again. The Flames have overachieved a bit, as they have a youngish team. The Ducks have a very physical team, with large/bruising/talented forwards in the like of Perry and Getzlaf. But, the Flames did play a spirited series against the Canucks, and certainly were not a team to back down. I just think that they will find it hard going here, little space to maneuver....and the Ducks have that intangible with all those come from behind wins against the Jets. I do not think this will be a sweep, but this to me looks like the most titled second round matchup. I think the Ducks win here in 6 - but, I find it hard to bet on a team that I'll be rooting against every game. I don't mind laying heavy chalk, but I will not in this series. Honestly, may take a poke at the Flames winning game 1 at high odds, or if they lose, you'll be sure to get a much, much better price for the series.

The play - Anaheim or pass (I'm passing)
 
The series we know - part 3

Rangers - -???
Caps - +???

Series price yet to come out, as of this writing, but I'll take a poke anyway.
Rangers took a big hit as they will not have Zuccarello for a bit (at this point, we are not sure, but I'd venture to say he will not be back before game 3 at the earliest). But, they should be getting back a boost in defensemen Kevin Klein. All things being equal, I'd rather have the Zuccarello, but that is not a choice I have in this matter. With Zucc out, it appears that St Louis will be taking his spot on the top line. However, one thing to keep in mind is Vigneault has been very good at swapping out players mid-game when things need a spark. He is not so stubborn as to stick with players not performing, as he has benched guys like St Louis, Kreider, Nash, JT Miller for long stretches during the season, so nothing is quite set in stone. It appears Shepperd will be joining the team, giving the Rangers a bit more bulk and grit, which will certainly be needed against this Caps team.
With Klein back in the fold, this gives the Rangers two very, very solid shut down tandems in Girardi/McDonagh and Staal/Klein and I think the Rangers will feel comfortable with either out against #8. This will also take a bit of the workload off the top defensive pairing on road games in particular, as they always want one of these two pairings out after a break, in the event the Caps through out Ovie/Backstrom. But, even the Rangers last pairing of Yandle/Boyle is a veteran combo with good skating ability.
The Caps had a very physical series against the Islanders and I'm sure they'll try the same against the Rangers to try to slow them down. And while they are bigger for sure, I think the Rangers will be quick enough to avoid for the most part, and get some free ice on the counter. The Penguins did not try to body up against the Rangers all that much, they played very solid positional hockey and this was very, very effective in slowing the Rangers down and negating their quick counter. The Caps defenseman like engaging in the attack and I think this is something the Rangers will be able to exploit. Orpik and Alsnar are two stay at home defenseman, but neither are exactly fleet of foot.
If I try to oversimplify things and give check marks to each facet of the game, I really think this is one sided in the Rangers favor. I'd say the Caps have an advantage on faceoffs, powerplay and top line (especially now that Zucc is out). I'd give the Rangers advantages on all three other offensive lines, all defensive pairings, penalty kill and goaltending.
Keys to the series, Caps need to stay disciplined and out of the penalty box. The Rangers power play is not terrific, but it will damn sure be better than the Islanders - and when shorthanded, no Ovie or Backstrom threats. Caps need to stay physical, but keep their positioning correct - not get overextended. Caps need to get their forecheck/cycle going on their second and third lines - keeping the puck in the Rangers zone for extended periods is key.
For the Rangers - they need to contain the Caps top line. They need to get the power play humming. If the Caps cannot stay disciplined, the Rangers have to get goals to make them pay. Get shots on the net - Holtby has been playing well, but ffs, I could be in goal against a team that only takes 11 shots, 3 by forwards, and only allow a goal. Lastly, they need to get their guys going. St Louis has been terrible, he needs to start doing much more. Krieder is a super star, he needs to get going. Lundqvist, just keep being Lundqvist.
If I'm making a line for the series, I'm making it Rangers -190. So, anything better than that, I'm playing, anything worse, I'm passing. Just like the Ducks, it's the Rangers or pass.
 
dylanphan said:
Pretty interesting decision by the NHL to ban Kronwell for game 7 tonight.
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I don't think there's an agenda there, Kronwall shouldn't have made that hit...no way but to suspend him...Kronwall has only himself to blame
 
I dunno - Subban didn't get suspended for his slash on Stone....and that was EARLY in the series.

Lot of conspiracy theories saying that the early exit may facilitate a move for Babcock to Toronto next season.

I think the hit was a suspendable offense, yes. But, I'm not sure I would have wanted to make that call for a game 7. Maybe a fine and stern warning.
 
dylanphan said:
I dunno - Subban didn't get suspended for his slash on Stone....and that was EARLY in the series.

Lot of conspiracy theories saying that the early exit may facilitate a move for Babcock to Toronto next season.

I think the hit was a suspendable offense, yes. But, I'm not sure I would have wanted to make that call for a game 7. Maybe a fine and stern warning.
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there's a precedence with leaving your feet and hitting a defenseless player so that's another reason why the suspension had to happen....I don't agree with Subban's actions but I've seen harder slashes in the league that haven't gotten any suspensions, now does that make Subban's suspension right? Definitely not, but hitting a defenseless player and leaving your feet has always been suspended in this league.. Why didn't the league fine Casey Cizikas for pretty much sacking Tom Wilson with his stick during a game?


I don't think Babcock will be coming to Toronto, the move for him doesn't make sense, if the leafs were close I could see it....I actually can see Chiarelli swooping in and getting Babcock who should have a field day with that lineup, as well don't forget about the Team Canada history there...
 
Babcock wants to come back. Wings might not want him tho. He won't go to another rebuild.
 
HUNT said:
Babcock wants to come back. Wings might not want him tho. He won't go to another rebuild.
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Don't understand why the wings don't want him...he's done so much with that team, you're not going to find a better quality coach than him
 
They think the dude from Grand Rapids is ready I guess. Some people think Babcock has worn out his welcome.

I don't. He's definitely top 5.
 
Last series write up for Round 2

Again, no line yet on the Montreal/TB series, but I had suggested the NYR line at -190 and that's where it's opened, but since it's dropped down to -175/-180...so let's see how close I can come on this series.

I think TB will get too much love in round 2. They did not look very good at all against Detroit after the first game - the longer the series went, the worse they looked. Even though TB dressed 7 defensemen, which would lead one to believe they would be more physical, they were far from it. Wings banged the crap out of TB every single shift. TB's offense outside of Taylor Johnson, looked really anemic, tentative, and worst of all, timid. Stamkos had very, very few quality chances and seemed to be easily marked out of every offensive possession. TB coach looked very outmatched by Babcock to me - he seriously didn't look like he made any changes or had a clue had to alter lines in order to switch momentum or generate offense. Considering Detroit was without 2 of it's best defenseman for game 7, this will be a concern against a very defense minded Montreal team.
I also do not like TB's defenseman outside of Hedman and maybe Stralman. They were having major problems getting the puck out of the zone all series, and Detroit was able to work a very effective forecheck all series. Also, they were not close to physical enough for my liking.
If TB doesn't get too much love, I certainly think Montreal will not get enough of it. Montreal was one of the best teams in the conference basically all season long. They had a very tough first round opponent in one of the hottest teams in the league and many people picked the Sens to win the series outright if not take them deep. Montreal really had a firm grasp on the series in my eyes. Yes, it was tight, but even the most one-sided Senators victory, the Canadians outshot them by a substantial margin. Canadians had an aggressive style on offense, and tbh, their defense was sub-par for most of the series as it took PRice standing on his head to close it out. I think this will change, it will need to, as the Lightning do have much more offensive firepower than the SEns. Another slight factor in the Canadians favor is they had to do way less traveling than the Lightning who had to huck it up to Detroit not once, but twice, and now again all the way up to Montreal. Factor in fatigue, and lets face it a few guys on TB got hit pretty good, Pavlat, Kucherov off the top of my head and this is another notch in Canadians favor.
But all in all, the biggest difference maker will be the man between the pipes. Bishop is so average, in game 7 he looked very beatable, I'm surprised Detroit wast not able to score. On the other hand Price has played great, on the biggest stages in the world and if you gave me a choice between these too, it's the most one-sided no-brainer ever.
I think you'll see Montreal pretty much with the same game plan as Detroit here, bang, bang, bang some more. Get the cycle going. Be annoying (Montreal has a number of guys that play this role well). Frustrate TB, and mostly keep the puck out of their hands in open ice. Have the defense play more stay at home so as not get beat (most of TB's high quality chances were on turnovers at mid ice which led to breakways - Boyle shorty, Johnson breakaway, few others).
TB has to get Stamkos going. Double shift him, play him on other lines, do whatever it takes, as if he doesn't score in this series, Lightning are going home in 5 or 6. They also need to get more offense off the 3rd and 4th lines. If they are going to play this series again with 7 dmen, they need to stay more disciplined and keep Montreal out of their end as much as possible. They need to get pressure on and around Price and try to knock him off his game. Lastly, they need to contain Pacioriety and Subban and make other guys make the plays. If they do this, they certainly can win this series, but I wouldn't count on it.
I don't see either team winning easily, but I do give the nod to the Canadians.
I would line it Montreal -135/TB +120 or so. At those lines, it's a pass altogether. Anything at or over +140, i'd take a shot on TB.
:cheers3:
 
I'll be on TB.....

Montreal isn't as physical as Detroit is and that offense that Montreal boasts isn't very good..Yesterday's game was their best game of the playoffs, they shut down the wings and Bishop was great....

Regarding Johnson - he has 6 goals and an assist in 7 games...point a game and one behind playoff point leader Kevin Shattenkirk..don't think he's timid, Detroit plays heck of a defensive game cause of Babcock and he still managed 7 points in 7 games..Stamkos I agree has to get it going, and everyone else will, but he'll be fine...nerves for sure and squeezing the stick a little tighter but once that first goal goes in, look out...
 
gsro said:
I'll be on TB.....

Montreal isn't as physical as Detroit is and that offense that Montreal boasts isn't very good..Yesterday's game was their best game of the playoffs, they shut down the wings and Bishop was great....

Regarding Johnson - he has 6 goals and an assist in 7 games...point a game and one behind playoff point leader Kevin Shattenkirk..don't think he's timid, Detroit plays heck of a defensive game cause of Babcock and he still managed 7 points in 7 games..Stamkos I agree has to get it going, and everyone else will, but he'll be fine...nerves for sure and squeezing the stick a little tighter but once that first goal goes in, look out...
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Well, to be fair, gsro, I said Tampa Bay aside from Taylor Johnson looked timid. Agree that Johnson's been great and very opposite than timid. Goes balls out every time he hits the ice (Callahan does to a good degree also, but he's been struggling to get anything going on offense which I think is a huge reason why Stamkos isn't getting any open ice).
And if you think Detroit plays a solid defensive game... Montreal let up what nearly 0.5 gpg LESS than Detroit during the regular se.ason. Sure, Price plays a huge part of it, but gotta get pucks on net, which TB has had issues with the past few games. They were outshot 31-17 in game 7, in TB. That's poor.
The only game they really significantly outplayed Detroit, imo, was game 1 (which they lost).
They are going to need to play a whole let better to beat Montreal, without home ice advantage.
Not trying to talk you out of a play on TB at all. I will probably be passing and just watching, I just think Montreal will be underrated.

Should be fun, new series starting up tonight :cheers3:
#LGR
 
dylanphan said:
Well, to be fair, gsro, I said Tampa Bay aside from Taylor Johnson looked timid. Agree that Johnson's been great and very opposite than timid. Goes balls out every time he hits the ice (Callahan does to a good degree also, but he's been struggling to get anything going on offense which I think is a huge reason why Stamkos isn't getting any open ice).
And if you think Detroit plays a solid defensive game... Montreal let up what nearly 0.5 gpg LESS than Detroit during the regular se.ason. Sure, Price plays a huge part of it, but gotta get pucks on net, which TB has had issues with the past few games. They were outshot 31-17 in game 7, in TB. That's poor.
The only game they really significantly outplayed Detroit, imo, was game 1 (which they lost).
They are going to need to play a whole let better to beat Montreal, without home ice advantage.
Not trying to talk you out of a play on TB at all. I will probably be passing and just watching, I just think Montreal will be underrated.

Should be fun, new series starting up tonight :cheers3:
#LGR
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read the Johnson portion incorrectly, my baddddd

price is a huge factor...price > mrazek and howard...

Believe TB went 5-0 against them this year tallying 41, 36, 36, 34, 44 shots in each of those games...the size just doesn't match up and atleast Detroit had some of that..just don't see the general Montreal love..first series for these youngsters they'll be looser now Coops is a good coach

bol on your wagers
 
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