2015 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

[Gorgolon Lives]

A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them.

Positional tiers will protect you against over-drafting players. I group players into tiers to maximize the value of a pick in each round. The goal with tiers is not to pinpoint/target certain players in drafts. Of course there will be certain breakout guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats. Fantasy is not about drafting the best players. It’s about drafting the best overall team with a deep roster that will allow you to make trades during the season.

My tiers will change throughout the month up until draft day. Injuries, camp news, roster moves will all be factored in when moving guys up and down the board.

Updated on 8/27/2015

QB Tiers

Like most recent years, the QB position is deep again in 2015 because the NFL favors passing and high scoring. It's ideal to wait on QB for as long as you can. The earliest I would even consider taking a QB would be in round 6. But it’s best to do some mocks to see how the people generally are reacting to the QB position. Based on how a draft goes, I’m ok with waiting until round 9 or 10 to take a QB. If you employ this strategy, it’s a good idea to grab a strong QB2 so you can play match-ups early on and hope one of the QB’s gets hot eventually.

While QB is deep, it dries up fast. There’s only about 14-16 QBs I’d consider rostering as of now. There are still some camp battles out there and injuries worth monitoring. If you wait on QB, drafting QBs in back to back rounds is a good strategy to ensure you get a quality QB2.

I'll go tier by tier and add some individual player thoughts along the way...

TIER 1

Luck
Rodgers

It’s remarkable what Rodgers has been doing. He’s consistently a Tier 1 QB and always performs like it. All of the offensive weapons return plus Adams should continue to improve. It’s tough to argue that Rodgers isn’t the clear #1 overall QB. I just won’t be drafting him in round 1 or 2, which means he won’t be on any of my rosters.

Luck broke out last year and the offense got more weapons for 2015. Unfortunately, he’s going to be over-drafted in all leagues. I’d stay away. He put up 40 TD’s last year with no run game at all. Gore should steal some of those TDs. If the TD’s drop back down to 30-35, he’s more of a 5[SUP]th[/SUP] round pick and not a 2[SUP]nd[/SUP].

TIER 2

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eli[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Peyton
Ben[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romo[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brady[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bradford[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brees[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tannehill[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Flacco[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wilson[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Tier 2 is proof of how much the QB position has changed in a very short time. The golden era of Manning, Brady, and Brees is coming to an end. We are seeing some veterans revitalizing their careers with new coaching and pass friendly offenses. Some of the guys we’ve been waiting to breakout simply haven’t done it (i.e. Ryan, Newton, Stafford).

The Giants offense will be scary this year. They have one of the deepest WR corps in the league. Plus, the Giants face some very weak secondaries in the NFC east. Eli should fall into 30 TD’s. The new scheme that McAdoo has brought over is legit. Manning’s career year last year was no fluke. Year 2 in McAdoo’s scheme, plus ODB, a weak run game, and now a seemingly healthy Cruz to start the year gives Eli a ton of upside in 2015. He’s also in a contract year. 4,500 and 35 TD’s is not out of the question. The upside is huge and the risk is very low. He’s started all 16 games every year of his career since he took over as a starter in 2005.

I was high on Big Ben last year and hit big on him as a 10[SUP]th[/SUP] round pick. I’d expect similar numbers this season because that defense will not be good. Expect some shootouts. Brown is a legit WR1 and the rest of that young WR corps will continue to improve in 2015. Ben said he wants to average 30 points a game, and I think they might. He may be slightly over-drafted, however.

I saw enough from Manning last year as he faded down the stretch. It’s a big gamble to take a 39 year old QB with a 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] round fantasy pick. He lost most of his offensive line, and the word is that they want to run more in 2015. Assuming he stays healthy, I think 30-35 TD’s is his ceiling. Let someone else take that risk. I’m not saying his career is over. I just think the risk/reward isn’t worth it.

I hate Romo, but he continues to put up numbers. The run game won’t be as good as last year which means Romo’s attempts should increase. Bryant and Whitten alone will get him 20-25 TDs.

Bradford is a coin flip, but if he stays healthy, he easily falls into the top-5 in Kelly’s system. The risk/reward is actually pretty good on him right now based on his low ADP. His ADP will continue to rise as reports from camp come out that he is looking healthy. It's not a bad idea to lock up the Eagles QB position by drafting Bradford and Sanchez.

I’m expecting a career year from Flacco in Trestman’s pass happy system. He’ll easily surpass 4,000 yards. I think Forsett is a fraud and the run game will have less success this year, so I think Flacco could throw 30+ TDs.

I don’t know what the Saints are doing. Graham was a huge loss, and it seems the team wants to run more in 2015. Brees has had a continual TD decline in each of the last 4 years. I see that pattern continuing in 2015. He may not get to 30 TDs.

I don’t know how to rank Brady right now. The talent is still there to rank him in the top 7 but we just don’t enough about the suspension yet. (Update: With release of records, I'm not sure Brady gets the full 4 game suspension).

Tannehill could be a league winning type player in fantasy. You can get him safely as a QB2, and if he hits look out. His numbers have improved each year. And he should continue to improve in Lazor’s Chip Kelly-Like system. He could go over 4,000 and 30 TDs. I may move him to Tier 2 at some point. He has more potential than Wilson, Ryan, and Newton but more risk.

TIER 3

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Rivers[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bridgwater[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Newton[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Stafford[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Let someone else draft Stafford and Rivers. Too many question marks there.

TIER 4

[TABLE="width: 95"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Palmer[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cutler[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Winston[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kap[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carr[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sanchez[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bortles[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

There’s a steep decline in this tier. I don’t think these guys are draftable right now. But these guys need to be ranked to fill out the back end of the QB2’s in a 10-12 team league.

TB has a lot of talent on offense, and I think Winston is NFL-ready. The INTs will be high, but he could throw 25 TDs in his rookie year.

Carr had a solid rookie season given how bad that team was. The offense should be better this year with some additional weapons. The INTs will be high, but I’d expect Carr to reach 23-25 TDs.

Palmer would be higher but for his injuries. There’s just no upside in drafting him as a QB2.

I’m a big believer in Bill O’Brien’s ability to coach QBs. Just look at Fitzpatrick’s numbers from last season. The Houston QB battle will be interesting to watch.

I was hoping AP wouldn’t return to Minnesota because I think Bridgewater could have had a solid 2015 season. He’s capped out now. I don’t expect him to throw over 20 TDs.

Sanchez won’t win the QB battle so long as Bradford is healthy. But Bradford could go down at any point in 2015, and then Sanchez would become a top-10 QB. If you own Bradford and he gets hurt, you probably won't want to watch someone else grab Sanchez off waivers. So you may want to handcuff Bradford with Sanchez.

 

[mogo]

Love your tier threads every year... thanks :shake:

 

[ScopeY]

Love this shit, love fantasy football, thanks for posting it.....

Totally agree on eli, want to see where he has been getting drafted, but definitely want him on atleast 1 of my fantasy teams...

 

[tipyerbartender1]

I guess McCown gets his own tier.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Like Rodgers over any QB (tier all his own), think Ben might outperform Luck. Ryan should be top 5. Romo's going to get hurt or play hurt.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Like Rodgers over any QB (tier all his own), think Ben might outperform Luck. Ryan should be top 5. Romo's going to get hurt or play hurt.

Good point on Rodgers. I might tweak that as the offseason moves along. I've been waiting for Ryan to break out for a while now. He seems to put up similar numbers each year. No doubt he's a safe pick. But I can't jump aboard him as an upside play.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Love this shit, love fantasy football, thanks for posting it.....

Totally agree on eli, want to see where he has been getting drafted, but definitely want him on atleast 1 of my fantasy teams...

None of the popular fantasy websites have him in the top 10, so my guess is you can get him later than round 8.

 

[jk16]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts with us again this year Gorg. These threads are phenomenal. :shake:

 

[eggman]

Solid groupings although I dare say Brady a bit low but understood with the suspension. Don't know that I could take Luck in the first 3 rounds but agree Rosgers is far and away the best out there. Thanks for doing this

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

After the first week of camp, we haven't heard much news on QB's, which is good a thing. No major injuries.

I tweaked Tier 2 a bit. Moved Flacco down because of the injuries to his WR corps. I also added Brady to Tier 2 after the record was released. There's a lot of holes in the facts of the case, and I'd be surprised if he gets the full 4 game suspension if he gets suspended at all. I also think the case will settle prior to the start of the season. It doesn't sound like the Judge is too pleased to hear this case.

I've added Kap to the rankings. This defense is not looking very good right now, so the pressure will be on Kap to produce in 2015. I'm not a fan of his, but he will certainly have every opportunity to put up numbers. There's no risk here because he's going so low in drafts.

 

[Tide High]

surprised not more luck love. the guy will have 100 more attempts than arod and will run more. he gets an energized Andre Johnson and a healthy Dwayne Allen. The improved RB should help, not hinder. They aren't going to really run well anyway. He's done nothing but improve and we all see he is a once per generation player. I think he steps his game up. I don't see how last year isn't close to his floor. The defense is shit, so they will be throwing in most 4th quarters. rodgers will take a couple 2nd halves off. moncreif and what's the kids name... phillip somn could be solid performers as well. i don't see how luck doesn't get 40 throwing and 4 rushing. he's a lock for 4000 and it won't be close.

that said this is all the hype everyone is hearing so i doubt i'll have him either. but i'd seriously consider drafting him over rodgers if i was going to take a QB 1st round.

 

[Tide High]

i just glanced at some ADPs. pretty funny... cbs and espn basically have rodgers and luck inversed. its pretty stupid to pick luck over rodgers when i think about it. he's not going to blow rodgers out and rodgers is just too consistent. i argue with myself more in FF than anything

 

[Gyno]

Eli is tier 3, no?

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

i just glanced at some ADPs. pretty funny... cbs and espn basically have rodgers and luck inversed. its pretty stupid to pick luck over rodgers when i think about it. he's not going to blow rodgers out and rodgers is just too consistent. i argue with myself more in FF than anything

I think they are in the same tier, so it's just a matter of personal preference. In a top-100 overall, I'd probably rank them back to back beginning in round 4. You can make arguments for either one as QB1.

In almost any home league, I'd bet Luck definitely goes in Round 1. Rodgers either round 1 or 2. That's why I haven't spent too much time on the debate or the research because neither will be on my team. I think Ben and/or Eli could throw for 35 TDs this year, so I like their value better. I'd even prefer Brady in round 7 or 8 and taking a gamble that his suspension is reduced.

It's very difficult to pass on Tier 1 WRs in favor of Luck or Brady (especially in PPR) because the Tier 1 WRs are very good and very stable.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Eli is tier 3, no?

Eli's weapons combined with an easy schedule and sub-par running game make him a legit QB1. In all 6 NFC east games, he has potential to put up 300 and 3. They also have the 49ers and Falcons at home. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't get to 4,000 and 30. But I like this potential for more, so that's why he's so high in the rankings. He reminds me of Ben last year where you can wait until round 10 to get him, so the risk is low. Then pair him with a high upside QB2 like Bradford or Tannehill for security.

 

[Tide High]

U right. No point in wasting time on them. I'm not drafting either

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Hearing from a former Professor who has litigated against the NFL that Brady's suspension will 100% be vacated. He'll shoot up the rankings into the top-5.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated the QB Tiers

I moved Brady up to #7 because I don't think he'll miss 4 games. Tannehill gets bumped to Tier 1. The upside is too great to pass on, but need a solid QB2 as a back up. I tweaked some others in Tier 2, but nothing major. I'm keeping Wilson and Cam at the bottom of Tier 2 because of their run-first systems.

I've done a few mocks now, and I'm caring less about the QB position as I continue to see very good QBs still available in rounds 10 and later. The point here is that after the top-2, there are about 10-15 QBs who all could have very good years. It's difficult to predict the order of those players. So the best bet is to wait as long as possible to grab the last one or two guys left in Tier 2. I don't see any reason to reach for a QB before round 7 or 8 unless you really have a high opinion on a particular player (perhaps Tennehill or Brady for upside).

You can make arguments for any order of players in Tier 2 -- it's all personal preference. You can even make arguments for Rivers and/or Stafford in Tier 2. I may end up bumping Rivers in the next week because there's good reports coming from his WR corp. I can't argue against many QBs this year because it's a difficult position to predict. The one mistake I see is Russell Wilson going as high as round 5 or 6. This is still a run first team, and Wilson really needs a big rushing year to live up to round 6 value. QB rushing is very unstable. You definitely don't want to rely on QB rushing and TDs. However, it's definitely a bonus when looking for upside. Wilson won't reach that next level in fantasy until Lynch is out of Seattle.

 

[Tide High]

Check out the qb by committee strategy. It's a pain but rank the defenses. Look at all low end qbs combined schedules and find the pair that play the most favorable combined schedule. I won't put my two in here bc I will be going after them in every draft and the point is to be able to get them really late

 

[Mo]

G. Do you think RD9 is too late to draft a QB? i'm going to try an wait on Eli or Tannehill. I think at least 1 of those guys will be there in round 9. I have the 7th pick in the draft, I have been doing some mocks and Either has been there at round 9. However, I have noticed with home drafts, once people start to see a certain position get drafted, there is panic and it becomes a feeding frenzy.

 

[Tide High]

If u want Eli or Tanney you gotta take them as like the 10-12th qb or nearby. Or when one gets taken take the other. Everybody I talk to says they are gonna wait on one of them so I think their adp will move up During the build up.

You just never know how your league is gonna draft qbs.

 

[Mo]

If u want Eli or Tanney you gotta take them as like the 10-12th qb or nearby. Or when one gets taken take the other. Everybody I talk to says they are gonna wait on one of them so I think their adp will move up During the build up.

You just never know how your league is gonna draft qbs.

thanks TH. I'm waiting until almost the end to draft a TE. Hoping to use the 8th pick to get another RB or WR

 

[Carolina Guy]

If Eli and/or Tannehill isn't available during R9, you aren't playing with guys who know how to draft in FF. also means there should be some talent at other positions still in the draft who shouldn't be.

Your decision on TE is spot on unless Gronk is there in the 3rd round for you. Otherwise, just wait till late in the draft as you suggested.

 

[Mo]

If Eli and/or Tannehill isn't available during R9, you aren't playing with guys who know how to draft in FF. also means there should be some talent at other positions still in the draft who shouldn't be.

Your decision on TE is spot on unless Gronk is there in the 3rd round for you. Otherwise, just wait till late in the draft as you suggested.

Thanks CG. I think 1 or both will be available. NFC east secondaries are soft. I'm leaning Eli. But I would be ok with Tannehill.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

G. Do you think RD9 is too late to draft a QB? i'm going to try an wait on Eli or Tannehill. I think at least 1 of those guys will be there in round 9. I have the 7th pick in the draft, I have been doing some mocks and Either has been there at round 9. However, I have noticed with home drafts, once people start to see a certain position get drafted, there is panic and it becomes a feeding frenzy.

I agree. You should get one in round 9, and maybe even get both in back to back rounds. Just be aware that some teams in home drafts may take 2 QBs, especially Brady owners.

 

[Mo]

I agree. You should get one in round 9, and maybe even get both in back to back rounds. Just be aware that some teams in home drafts may take 2 QBs, especially Brady owners.

G. I'm not really a fan of drafting 2 QBs. I guess it has some value, I would rather try to get a RB who might be of some value midway thru the season. I think a QB sitting on your bench is kind of a wasted pick

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Updated the QB Tiers.

In Tier 1, I moved Luck ahead of Rodgers because of the Jordy news. I didn't spend too much time thinking about it because neither will be on my team. But you have to assume the loss of Jordy has some kind of negative impact on Rodgers. Luck went in round 1 in my home draft, and I imagine that's how almost every home draft will look. It only helps the owners who like to take Tier 1 WRs in round 2 because more are available.

I finally moved Tannehill to Tier 2. The upside is just too great. I took him in Round 10, and I'm happy about that. All of the camp reports have been positive, and he's made statistical improvements each year he's been in the league. Remember he was a top-10 draft pick, and the Dolphins recently gave him a massive contract extension. They've also surround him by new weapons which fit his skill set. If Parker can get healthy sooner than later, look out.

Tier 2 is filled with coin flips. I had a nice selection of options in Round 10 in a 10-team league, and I'd recommend holding out that long to grab a QB. Waiting until Round 10 allowed me to take John Brown in round 9. That decision could prove crucial.

I moved Cam down to Tier 3, and I moved Teddy up to Tier 3. Ironically, I took Teddy in Round 12 and passed on Cam. I was initially surprised that Cam fell that far, but it's tough to get behind him as a fantasy starter. I'm buying into the Teddy hype especially with all of the new weapons. He looked great towards the end of last season, and he's picking right up where he left off. Plus, he now has a healthy Rudolph, Wallace, AP, and a full year of Charles Johnson as his #1 WR. I initially was skeptical of his TD production with AP in the line up, but I think this offense is going to be very good and can support a good QB and good RB. Tons of upside for Teddy with literally ZERO risk.

I left my draft with Tannehill and Teddy as my QBs. It's definitely not a strategy I had planned or even thought about it. I had no strategy at QB. I just wanted to wait as long as possible and get at least one QB from Tier 2. But looking back on it, I really like the strategy. Both guys could have breakout top-10 seasons, and I only need to hit on one. If both breakout, it would at least give me some trade options. In the event they BOTH bust, they only cost me a 10th and 12th pick. I can always trade for a QB in that case, especially in a 10 team league. I'd utilize this strategy again if the draft played out that way.

 

[Mo]

Updated the QB Tiers.

In Tier 1, I moved Luck ahead of Rodgers because of the Jordy news. I didn't spend too much time thinking about it because neither will be on my team. But you have to assume the loss of Jordy has some kind of negative impact on Rodgers. Luck went in round 1 in my home draft, and I imagine that's how almost every home draft will look. It only helps the owners who like to take Tier 1 WRs in round 2 because more are available. Nice Job.

I finally moved Tannehill to Tier 2. The upside is just too great. I took him in Round 10, and I'm happy about that. All of the camp reports have been positive, and he's made statistical improvements each year he's been in the league. Remember he was a top-10 draft pick, and the Dolphins recently gave him a massive contract extension. They've also surround him by new weapons which fit his skill set. If Parker can get healthy sooner than later, look out.

Tier 2 is filled with coin flips. I had a nice selection of options in Round 10 in a 10-team league, and I'd recommend holding out that long to grab a QB. Waiting until Round 10 allowed me to take John Brown in round 9. That decision could prove crucial.

I moved Cam down to Tier 3, and I moved Teddy up to Tier 3. Ironically, I took Teddy in Round 12 and passed on Cam. I was initially surprised that Cam fell that far, but it's tough to get behind him as a fantasy starter. I'm buying into the Teddy hype especially with all of the new weapons. He looked great towards the end of last season, and he's picking right up where he left off. Plus, he now has a healthy Rudolph, Wallace, AP, and a full year of Charles Johnson as his #1 WR. I initially was skeptical of his TD production with AP in the line up, but I think this offense is going to be very good and can support a good QB and good RB. Tons of upside for Teddy with literally ZERO risk.

I left my draft with Tannehill and Teddy as my QBs. It's definitely not a strategy I had planned or even thought about it. I had no strategy at QB. I just wanted to wait as long as possible and get at least one QB from Tier 2. But looking back on it, I really like the strategy. Both guys could have breakout top-10 seasons, and I only need to hit on one. If both breakout, it would at least give me some trade options. In the event they BOTH bust, they only cost me a 10th and 12th pick. I can always trade for a QB in that case, especially in a 10 team league. I'd utilize this strategy again if the draft played out that way.

Having AP back takes a huge load off of TBs shoulders. He should feel more at ease and the fact that he has worked with CJ a full year just adds to his value.

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Moved back back a bit with Bryant news. It's safe to assume that he might start the year slow, especially with Bell hurt. Like the others, no reason to reach for him.

 

[jk16]

2016 preseason bump. Looking forward to your thoughts again Gorg. Love these threads. :shake2:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

2016 preseason bump. Looking forward to your thoughts again Gorg. Love these threads. :shake2:

Unfortunately, I don't know how much content I'll be able to generate this year with real-life work getting in the way. I am playing in an expensive dynasty start up league with IDP players and player contracts. It's a beast of a league and something that I've been spending my free time on. It involved a different draft strategy, so I haven't really had a ton of time to spend to regular re-draft rankings. I'll definitely be spending some time in the fantasy forum for thoughts and answers to questions, though.

 

[ScopeY]

Unfortunately, I don't know how much content I'll be able to generate this year with real-life work getting in the way. I am playing in an expensive dynasty start up league with IDP players and player contracts. It's a beast of a league and something that I've been spending my free time on. It involved a different draft strategy, so I haven't really had a ton of time to spend to regular re-draft rankings. I'll definitely be spending some time in the fantasy forum for thoughts and answers to questions, though.

Dang hate to hear that, but understood. If you have an opportunity to post maybe thoughts on some of your tiers, that be great, not necessarily your strategy. Either way, much appreciated