Notes:
First games in group play were 14-2 under 2.5 goals in 2010.
Four games in Amazon:
June 15 England vs. Italy
June 18 Cameroon vs. Croatia
June 22 USA vs. Portugal
June 25 Honduras vs. Switzerland
GROUP A
Other than Brazil this is kind of a weak group. (#1, #16, #21, #56)
Brazil
Odds: 5/2 to win CUP; -500 to win group
Fred to score most goals: 20 to 1
Neymar to score most goals: 10 to 1
Elo Rating: 1
Won 2013 Confederations Cup 3-0 over Spain. Haven’t lost since February 2013.
Neymar is star left winger, 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best player in world behind Messi, CR.
Brazil is loaded on defense and at the back. Strong on wings and like to counter fast. Center forward Fred 5 goals in 5 matches at Confed Cup.
Should win title, every bit the favorite. Given 97.8 percent chance to advance and 19.9 percent chance to win, according to Bloomburg.
Mexico
Odds: 120 to 1 to win Cup; To Adv +115
Over/Under group pts: Over 3.5 +100
Elo Rating: 16
Made it out of group stage in five straight WCs. Only made WC because USA beat Panama. Dos Santos and Chicarito are strikers. Medina and Montes hurt.
Looked good in warm up vs. Ecuador and Israel. Playing better of late than in qualifying.
Given 47 percent chance to advance by Bloomburg. Kind of like them to get out of group and then lose.
Croatia
Odds: 150 to 1 to win Cup; ; To Adv +100
Elo Rating: 21
They beat Australia 1-0 in recent friendly. They have defensive shortcomings. They like to push up high on offense and leave themselves vulnerable to counter.
They grind and plod, no width.
They play Cameroon in the Amazon on June 18.
Cameroon
Odds: 500 to 1
Over/Under Group points: Under 2.5 -125
Elo Rating: 56
They have qualified for the WC seven times. They have hardened veterans with young upstarts sprinkled in. Their striker Eto is 33 years old, and possibly older. They have a leaky defense. Lowest ranked team by Elo ratings.
They play Croatia in the Amazon on June 18.
They refused to leave country for 12 hours until they could get more bonus money.
GROUP B
Very tough group outside of Australia (#2, #5, #10, #33)
Spain
Odds: 5.75 to 1; -145 to win group
Highest scoring team: 8 to 1
Silva to score most goals:
Elo Rating: 2
Only Brazil has won back to back WCs and Spain is defending champ and won Euro Cup.
They have nine players from Barcelona/Real Madrid. Their game is short possession passing and constant movement. Out of 6 midfielders, they have 4 over 30 years old—may have lost a step. Probably not in top form.
Given 79.9 percent chance to advance by Bloomburg.
Netherlands
Odds: 25 to 1 to win cup
Van Persie to score most goals: 25 to 1
Robben to score most goals: 40 to 1
Elo Rating: 5
Allowed only five goals in 10 games vs very weak qualifying group.
Van Persie and Snejder are in pain with VP knee and Snejder ankle. Injuries to Strootman (OUT) and Steklenburg (keeper—will he play?).
Only one win and one draw in last six games. Lost to France, drew vs. Ecuador.
Coach just signed with Manchester U. Dutch have very inexperienced defense and a majority fo defenders play in a porous defensive league.
Went to World Cup final in 2010, lost three straight in Euro Cup.
Seems like they are banged up. Probably a play against if you think Chile can beat them. Possibly overs?
They have a 67.3 chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
Chile
Odds: 40 to 1; To win group +350; To adv -115
Over/Under Group pts: Over 3.5 -160
Sanchez to score most goals: 60 to 1
Elo Rating: 10
Attack, attack, attack. They play a pressing, attacking style for a former Chile star. 19 goals for Sanchez in La Liga—made him #4 in league. Vidal is a great midfielder. They went 2-1-5 vs other South American qualifiers. They gave up 25 goals in 16 qualifiers.
They are intriguing pick, but have a leaky defense. They seem like a good candidate to play overs especially with Dutch, Spain. I like them to advance over Netherlands I think.
They have a 42.6 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
Australia
Odds: 500 to 1 to win cup
Over/Under Group play: Under 1.5 -220
Elo Rating: 33
They are an older team. Best player is Cahill an attacker from NY Red Bulls. Most of the players play in weak Australian league.
They have a 10.7 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
GROUP C
No pushovers in this group as even Japan is decent. (#8, #20 Greece, #22 IC, #24)
All of group combined is 16 to 1 to win Cup.
Columbia
Odds: 35 to 1; to win group -140
Highest scoring team: 14 to 1
Elo Rating: 8
Their coach was Argentina’s coach at WC in 2006. They qualified very well but they are very inexperienced. All their players are new to WC except goalie. Falcao out for WC but they have a bunch of attackers.
Back 4 are biggest question mark but goalie is tough.
They scored 14 goals in a 4 game span. They allowed 3 goals in 10 games but then gave up 6 in their last 3 games. Overall they allowed 13 goals in 16 games—that was best defense in South American qualifying.
Rodriquez had 12 assists to lead Ligue 1.
They have a 74.7 percent chance to advance.
They are intriguing dark horse, but lost best player in Falcao and lack of experience makes them ripe for an upset in round of 16 perhaps? Night be a good team to bet against in first match for first half of first match vs. Greece. (Maybe Greece plus 0.5 first half?)
Ivory Coast
Odds: 120 to 1; To win group +350; To adv -110
Over/Under group pts: Over 3.5 -140
Elo Rating: 22
They are very talented but give extremely uneven performances. Nigeria stomped them in Africans Cup 2012.
They have a bunch of stars in Drogba, Gervinho, Kalou and Yaya Toure. Toure had 20 EPL goals and nine assists this year. Might be best at his position in the world.
They have NEVER advanced past group stage. They have a weak defense although their goalie didn’t allow a goal in 2012 African Nations Cup until final.
This is their one last shot to capitalize on their talent as Drogba is starting to fade.
I think I like them to advance, and possibly to win group. I think they will flame out in round of 16 although if they got hot….Yaya Toure is a beast.
Rated as the worst in the group by Bloomburg who gave them only a 33.4 chance to advance.
Coach is question mark.
Greece
Odds: 200 to 1
Elo Rating: 20
They will try to win ugly and play annoying defense. Italy lite.
They only gave up 4 goals in 10 matches during qualifying. They scored 12 goals in 10 games in qualifying and prefer to sit back although they do have some attacking quality.
They are an average squad and their coach could not get his contract extended beyond this tournament.
They seem like a team to under bet especially in first game vs. Columbia. (under 2.5 -200, under 1.5 +150, under 0.5 +500)
They have a 54 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
Japan
Odds: 150 to 1; Japan to Adv ??
Over/Under group pts: Over 3.5 -110
Elo Rating: 24
With only one player over 5’9 they are very short and vulnerable to set pieces and corner kicks. They do have enough talent to get out of this group. They almost reached the quarterfinals in 2010—went to a penalty shootout with Paraguay.
Honda is their talented striker, they only allowed 8 goal in 14 qualifying matches. They have scored 3 on Italy in a big match. Teams will try to bully them.
This is the best team in Asia, they are a dark horse that could pull an upset or two. They are 0-3 vs. South America in WC.
They have a 37.9 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
GROUP D
Coast Rica won’t win a game here, but Italy, Uruguay and England are fairly evenly matched.
All of group combined is 8/1 to win cup.
Italy
Odds: 20 to 1
Odds on Balotelli scoring the most goals: 30 to 1
Elo Rating: 11
They have made the semi-finals at least half the time since the 1970s. But they haven’t won since beating Czech Republic in Sept. 2013 including an uninspiring draw vs. Luxembourg.
They have great players in Balotelli and Pirlo. They line up in defensive formations and play narrow. Defense is a tad fragile. They may push the ball upfield a bit more than usual.
They play vs. England in Amazon on June 15. Seems like it sets up for an under bet or possibly England with many young players.
They are a little under the radar but their recent form does not inspire confidence.
Uruguay
Odds: 20 to 1; To win group: +175
Odds for Suarez to score most goals: ??
Odds for Cavini to score most goals: 30 to 1
Elo Rating: 9
This team is stacked and went to semifinals of WC in 2010. Suarez had knee surgery two weeks ago and is trying to come back. He is a big key as he had 31 goals in 33 games in the EPL.
They are a tough defensive team and good at marking players. They are lethal on counters. Suarez and Cavini are among the top 10 strikers in the world.
They lost 4-0 to Columbia, 3-0 to Argentina, 4-1 to Bolivia. They needed a two legged playoff with Jordan to qualify.
In friendlys recently they beat Northern Ireland 1-0 and Slovenia 2-0.
I like this team as a dark horse that could win it all especially if Suarez is back.
They have a 63.3 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
England
Odds: 28 to 1
Odds for Rooney to score most goals: 50 to 1
Elo Rating: 6
This team is loaded with young talent. They went undefeated in qualifiers and are stacked at forward and midfield. Rooney is playing for his legacy. Is Rooney and other EPL guys too tired after season?
They just had a 0-0 draw with Honduras in Miami. Only five players have played in World Cup.
They play Italy on June 15[SUP]th[/SUP] at Amazon. Under 2.5 -200, under 1.5 is +150, under 0.5 +600
Could England spring the upset on Italy with young guys? They did wilt in the heat vs. Ecudor in a friendly.
This team seems to be flying under the radar, may surprise in WC and make a run.
They have a 62.4 percent to advance according to Bloomburg.
Costa Rica
Odds: 10,000 to 1
Elo Rating: 32
Lost only 2 of 10 qualifiers and they have a great goalie—he was goalie of year in La Liga. Their top striker was injured and is out for WC and they are missing another starter. They had fewest goals allowed in qualifying and won’t be intimidated as they beat Mexico and USA on the road.
Probably not going to do much but wins vs. Mexico and USA show they could pull an upset. Might be a good team to play in the last match if the other team has already qualified to move on.
Maybe an Under team as well? Under first game vs. Uruguay?
They have a 10.9 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
GROUP E
This is kind of a weak group but a wide open one as I don’t like the Swiss that much. France (#12) is probably the best team in this group. I think Honduras will be a pain the butt team.
Switzerland
Odds: 100 to 1
Elo Rating: 17
The window of opportunity is opening for this team as they have a golden generation that is starting up.
They have four good attackers under the age of 25, but they probably aren’t ready yet to be real threat. They qualified against a real bush league group of Iceland, Slovenia, Albania and Cyprus.
Their coach won the champions league with two different teams.
They play Honduras on June 25 @ Amazon. Will be looking to bet Honduras.
In 2010, they needed a win over Honduras to move on in group play and it was a draw. They were the only team to beat Spain 1-0.
They had a number of injuries in weeks leading up to WC. Their two center backs are the biggest questionmarks.
I don’t really like them to get out of this group, but could be a sleeper if they do. They have drawn their last three vs. France.
France
Odds: 20 to 1
Elo Rating: 12
They are stacked on paper, but this team revolted at 2010 WC. They reached the final in 2006.
They have great goalie and are very strong at midfield. Ribery out for WC. Valbuena is a beast.
They were impressive in qualifying with a home loss and an away draw with Spain. They did lose to Japan 1-0, Brazil 3-0 and twice to Spain but were those friendlies?
They have very little experience playing Ecudor or Honduras.
I think they probably make it out of this group, certainly favored to do so.
Ecudor
Odds: 100 to 1 to win WC; +350 to win group; To adv -110
Over/Under Group Pts: Over 4.5 +150
Elo Rating: 19
They really tend to struggle outside of their home stadium with only three draws in 8 road matches.
They lost a starter to a heart attack last year. They do have Manchester U. winger Valencia who is a game-changer.
They play rather free from and threaten with width as wingers are strength of team. They have experienced midfielders but defense can be a problem when the back line is left exposed. Argentina beat them 4-0 in qualifying.
This team is kind of a dark horse, and could win this wide-open group. Playing for the Gipper.
Honduras
Odds: 10,000 to 1
Over/Under group pts: Over 1.5 +115
Elo Rating: 45
This team roughed up England to a 0-0 tie recently. They got a draw with the Swiss in 2010 when the Swiss needed to win to move on.
This team was the second team ever to win at Mexico, they have a very fast striker.
They play Switzerland on June 25 @ Amazon. Looking to take Honduras.
I kind of like this team to go over 1.5 pts in group play especially since they get the Swiss in the jungle.
GROUP F
Very weak group outside of Argentina. Maybe the weakest in the tourney. (#4,#25,#30, #34)
Argentina
Odds: 3.75 to 1; to win group -500
Over/Under Group pts: Over 7.5 +135
Elo Rating: 4
They have the best offensive talent in the world, best on counter attack. Messi is world’s best player, he had 10 goals in qualifying including a hat trick vs. Brazil. He only has 1 goal in 2 WCs.
They lost to Germany on PKS in 2010 and 2006.
They can be weak on defensive wings, their 6’3 goalie does have some doubters. This team seems like a tough out.
Bosnia
Odds: 150 to 1; To Adv -125
Over/Under Group Pts: over 3.5 -165
Elo Rating: 25
This seems like a good sleeper team. They have a great goalie from Premier League and they dominated qualifiers with an attacking approach. They are not that deep—12 quality players—and really have no defensive midfielders of note. They struggle to stop counter attacks which means that Argentina is a bad matchup for them. Also, Nigeria likes to counter. They lost 2-0 to Argentina in November.
They have a very good free kick taker Salihovic. Dzeko had 10 goals and 3 assist in qualifying—just was on winning premier League team. They nearly beat France in Euro 2012.
I think this team can come out of this group. Like them to beat Nigeria and Iran.
Iran
Odds: 10,000 to 1
Elo Rating: 34
This is their 4[SUP]th[/SUP] time in WC. Their preparations were bad—their team has financial problems and played low quality competition in the friendlies.
Coach used to be with Real Madrid and Portugal—he has a disciplined and tight structured style. Goalie spot between two guys. First goal with Nigeria is critical.
They seem to be a play against. If they lose to Nigeria, they may pack it up and go home.
Nigeria
Odds: 200 to 1
Elo Rating: #30
This team hasn’t won a WC game in 16 years. Their coach is an ex-player and the goalie is the captain. They have a world class center forward.
I don’t think they get out of this group.
GROUP G
This is the group of death.
Germany
Odds: 11/2 to win cup; -200 to win group
Elo Rating: 3
This is a very stacked team. They have seven possible starters from Bayern Munich. Marco Reus is out with a torn ligament. There are also injuries to Lahm, Neuer and Schweinsteiger. They had nine wins and one draw in qualifying. The team is staying at a luxury resort on the Atlantic coast.
They like to dominate in the midfield.
Will the heat bother the Germans? This team is probably the best value among the favorites.
They have an 85 percent chance to advance according to Bloomburg.
Portugal
Odds: 25 to 1
Elo Rating: 7
Ronaldo is in great form, he had four goals vs. Sweden in qualifying. However, his knee has been flaring up.
This team seems to play up and down to competition. They went to semi-finals of Euro 2012.
They beat Mexico 1-0 in friendly. They have a pretty good goalie.
They play the USA in the Amazon on June 22.
They have a 66.3 percent chance of advancing to the next round according to Bloomburg.
USA
Odds: 120 to 1; Win group +1000; To adv +250
Over/Under Group Pts: Over 2.5 -120
Elo Rating: 13
Joey Altidore had 2 goals in warm up game vs. Nigeria. USA played well in the 2-1 win. They don’t have Landon Donovan, and the team went younger. They have beat Italy, Mexico and Bosnia on the road.
They will be laying back and countering. Very good goalie, Dempsey and Altidore very high quality.
They play Portugal in the Amazon on June 22.
First game vs. Ghana is huge.
Kind of like USA to win a game but not get through the group.
They have a 26.1 percent chance of advancing to the next round according to Bloomburg.
Ghana
Odds: 150 to 1
Elo Rating: 38
Good at attacking, but weak at goalie and on defense generally. This team made it to round of 8 in 2010.
They have a 22.7 percent chance of advancing to the next round according to Bloomburg.
GROUP H
Not a believer in Belgium, this is probably one of the weaker groups.
Belgium
Odds: 20 to 1
Elo Rating: 17
Top striker Bentene is out. They have world-class goalie but are weak at fullback.
They haven’t won a game since October.
Russia
Odds: 80 to 1; Win group +200; To adv -225
Elo Rating: 15
Their captain is out for the WC. They beat Portugal in Moscow 1-0.
They have England’s old coach, he is defensive-minded Italian. They conceded just five goals in ten games during qualifying.
They are weak at center defense and should be wary of Algeria—bad match-up.
This seems like a team to bet unders.
This seems like a team that gets through and gets beat in round of 16 to me.
South Korea
Odds: 300 to 1
Elo Rating: 42
This is a counter attacking team that managed to beat the Swiss 2-1 last November. Their fullbacks and defense are weak. Their goalie is weak and they conceded more goals from set pieces in qualifying than all but one country.
These guys are a bet against.
Algeria
Odds: 10,000 to 1
Elo Rating: 53
This team has never made it out of the first round. They have a first-time coach, and they failed to score in South Africa but did earn one point with a 0-0 draw. They have a long-range passing attack, safety first.
Seems like it could be another under team.
They supposedly are a tough match-up for Russia.
Bets I kind of like--
Lift the World Cup:
South American team -120
Argentina +375
Germany +550
Group D (Italy, Uruguay, England, CR) +800
Group C (Columbia, Ivory Coast, Greece, Japan) +1600
Italy +2000
France +2000
Uruguay +2000
Portugal +2500
England +2800
Columbia +3500
Chile +4000
African Country +5000
Ivory Coast +12000
Win group:
Brazil -500
Spain -145
Columbia -140
Ivory Coast +350
Uruguay +175
Ecudor +350
Argentina -500
Germany -200
USA +1000
Russia +200
To advance out of first round:
Croatia +100
Mexico +115
Chile -115
Ivory Coast -110
Uruguay -200
Ecudor -110
Bosnia -125
USA +250
Over/Under group pts:
Australia under 1.5 -220
Honduras over 1.5 +115
Algeria over 1.5 -140
Cameroon Under 2.5 -125
USA over 2.5 -120
Bosnia Over 3.5 -165
Ivory Coast over 3.5 -140
Japan Over 3.5 -110
Mexico Over 3.5 +100
Chile Over 3.5 -160
Ecudor Over 4.5 +150
Uruguay Over 5.5 +110
Belgium Under 6.5 -135
Argentina Over 7.5 +135
Brazil Over 7.5 +100
Top scoring team:
Spain +800
Columbia +1400
Top scoring player:
Messi, Arg +700
Neymar, Bra +1000
Ronaldo, Port +1200
Fred, Bra +2000
Van Persie, Neth +2500
Balotelli, Italy +3000
Cavini, Urug +3000
Robben, Neth +4000
Rooney, Eng +5000
Sanchez, Chile +6000
