Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Updated as of 8/29
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the QB position…
As mentioned on many fantasy sites, QB is deep this year. So it's ideal to wait on QB for as long as you can. Try a mock by taking a QB early and you will notice that your team is not as deep, as opposed to waiting. Based on some early mocks, I'm noticing that the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], 10[SUP]th[/SUP], or 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round seems like the appropriate spot to draft a QB. If you do use this strategy, I think it's better to grab a strong QB2 so you can play match-ups early on and hope one gets hot eventually. Drafting QBs in back to back rounds could be a good strategy to ensure you get a quality QB2.
I'll go tier by tier and add some individual player thoughts along the way...
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 82"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Manning4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodgers9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brees6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This seems to be the consensus first tier, and for good reason. I still think Manning in round 1 or 2 is an overdraft. Defenses make adjustments year by year, and I don’t expect this offense to surprise defenses like they did last season. I still think Manning will have a decent year (if healthy), but I could certainly see Rodgers overtaking him for #1 overall. I’d assume all three of these guys don’t make it out of the first 2 rounds in home drafts, so I won’t be owning any of them. The early rounds are when you build a core roster of positional players, and taking a QB early hurts a team’s depth immensely.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Stafford9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cutler9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foles7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luck10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RG III*10
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here’s where everyone’s rankings differ. This is my high upside tier. I believe anyone in this grouping could finish top 3 at the position based on potential. Stafford is being over-drafted in Round 3/4. He has all the potential in the world at age 26 but I can’t yet justify putting him in Tier 1 based on his inconsistencies over past years. Ryan is in for a HUGE year. Atlanta has zero run game and all reports say their WRs are healthy. Without a TE, this team should look to go with a more spread attack with 3 WRs, incorporating Douglas. Ryan was on a nice 3 year upward trend in all statistical categories until last year when the Falcons were decimated by injuries. 4500 and 28 should be his floor in 2014.
Cutler seems to be the QB I get in mocks because his ADP is so low. I don’t know why. He’s had some injury concerns, but that’s why you back him up with a good QB2. Last year, he was on pace for career numbers in Trestman’s offense. When he got hurt, McCown also put up career numbers. Trestman seems to be a QB guru. Cutler also has arguably the best offensive weapons in the entire league.
I’m high on RG3 this year. He should be fully healed from the ACL. Sure he is an injury risk, but you can just back him up with a high level QB2. The emergence of Reed and the addition of Jackson give him some lethal weapons to go along with Garcon. I don’t see Foles repeating his efficiency from last year, but he didn’t even play a full season and still had 27 TDs. This offense is incredible, and Foles should only get better as he gets more acclimated to Kelly’s system. Philly lost Jackson, but resigned Maclin, added Sproles and drafted a promising rookie WR with a high pick. This team won’t miss Jackson as much as some people think. Also, it can’t be ignored that Foles is in a contract year.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Kapernick8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Newton12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Big Ben12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brady10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wilson4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rivers10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romo11
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Every player in this tier has question marks. Luck and Newton may bump up to Tier 2 as we get closer to the start of the season. Luck should be in line for a good year IF Pep Hamilton finally allows him to throw the damn ball. Indy’s conservative offense relegates Luck to a borderline QB1, which is a joke. The bright side is that Indy’s run game has question marks with TRich. If TRich falters early, I could see Indy having no choice but to air it out. If they do, there is no reason Luck shouldn’t finish in the top-5. For Newton, it’s just a question of offensive weapons. I still think Carolina will add a WR in camp once teams start to make cuts. I’ll be monitoring that situation closely. The rushing numbers, though, have been and should continue to be there in 2014.
I really like Big Ben this year, especially at his 11/12[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP. He quietly produced a 4200 and 28 season last year. Reports out of Pitt are saying Haley is going to allow Ben to open up the offense and call his own shots at the line. This should lead to increased stats. I love his weapons. He’s got the vets: Miller, Brown, and Moore (recent signing). And he’s got promising young guys: Wheaton and Bryant. Bell is an underrated pass catcher out of the backfield, and they added a potential Sproles clone in the draft – Archer. I see no reason why Ben can’t replicate last season’s numbers, if not surpass them, as long as he stays healthy.
A quick word on Romo. Dallas will certainly throw more this year in a new system, but I’m concerned about Romo’s back. He’s getting older now and for me, he is a big injury concern. His situation is different than Cutler, who’s had more nagging injuries in the past. A back injury for a QB just isn’t good. I probably won’t be owning Romo this year.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Palmer4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Manziel4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tannehill5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dalton4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Locker*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Smith6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eli8
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
It’s crazy to see Alex Smith ahead of Brady, but that’s what it’s come to. Brady has had a downward statistically trend over the past few years and age seems to be getting to him. His 4/5[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP is a joke. He’s still a good real life QB, and his numbers could be better than last year but that’s assuming Gronk stays healthy. There just isn’t enough upside to rank him higher than a borderline QB1. Alex Smith should only get better after a full year in Reid’s offense. That fat moron will have Smith throwing even more this year, which should only increase his stats. 4000 (total yards) and 25+ tds is possible, which makes his 13[SUP]th[/SUP]/14[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP enticing. He’s an ideal QB2 to pair with someone like Big Ben.
Football Johnny is here on pure potential. I’m personally not a fan, but we’ve seen Tebow and RG3 have success running the ball early in their careers, so you can’t ignore Johnny. He may not start the year, but should see the field after the Browns’ early bye week. He’ll probably be over-drafted though. And he’s not a great QB2 if you decide to wait on QB because he’s too risky. But if you grab a top 3 QB, he’s a nice asset to acquire and trade later in the year if he’s playing well.
I’ve always been a Locker fan because of his running ability. Tennessee has sneaky young weapons, but it’s just a matter of Locker remaining healthy. Don’t ignore Palmer as a quality QB2. The emergence of Floyd and Ellington should only help that offense. Palmer put up 4200 and 24 last season. Those stats could improve. He’s probably not a good option, though, in leagues that make INTs -2.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 82"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]McCown7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G Smith11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Flacco11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fitzpatrick10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Manuel9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are more 2 QB league picks. I’m a big EJ Manuel fan. For some reason, I watched a lot of Bills games last year, and he showed some tremendous leadership traits in close games and pressure situations. The Bills have built an offense with some of the fastest players in the NFL. Look for them to utilize the short passing game, allowing Manuel to make simple throws, while allowing the skill players to get out in space and accumulate YAC. He probably will go undrafted in 1 QB leagues, but he is someone to monitor as a waiver pick up if he starts the year out hot.
Tannehill could take a leap in his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year. He’s going to have to if he wants to remain the Dolphins starter. The Dolphins brought in Bill Lazor from Chip Kelly’s system. We saw how Foles progressed, so perhaps Tannehill could do the same. I just think he holds the ball way too long and makes poor decisions. I’m not sure those are habits that can be broken by coaching.
A quick word on Dalton. The ranking may seem low, but all the news out of Cinncy is that this team is going to pound the ball on the ground. I see Dalton being relegated to more of a Joe Flacco type who may produce in a few games but can’t be relied on in 1 QB leagues.
A few brief words on tiers. They are becoming more popular, so most people already understand them. I group players into tiers to maximize value of picks round-by-round. The goal is not to pinpoint certain players in drafts and target only those players. Of course there will be certain guys that you might hope to get at some point in the draft, but it's better to ignore names and rely on your tiers. Group players together who you think could have similar stats, and the goal is to get the last player available from that tier.
Onto the QB position…
As mentioned on many fantasy sites, QB is deep this year. So it's ideal to wait on QB for as long as you can. Try a mock by taking a QB early and you will notice that your team is not as deep, as opposed to waiting. Based on some early mocks, I'm noticing that the 9[SUP]th[/SUP], 10[SUP]th[/SUP], or 11[SUP]th[/SUP] round seems like the appropriate spot to draft a QB. If you do use this strategy, I think it's better to grab a strong QB2 so you can play match-ups early on and hope one gets hot eventually. Drafting QBs in back to back rounds could be a good strategy to ensure you get a quality QB2.
I'll go tier by tier and add some individual player thoughts along the way...
Tier 1
[TABLE="width: 82"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Manning4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rodgers9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brees6[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
This seems to be the consensus first tier, and for good reason. I still think Manning in round 1 or 2 is an overdraft. Defenses make adjustments year by year, and I don’t expect this offense to surprise defenses like they did last season. I still think Manning will have a decent year (if healthy), but I could certainly see Rodgers overtaking him for #1 overall. I’d assume all three of these guys don’t make it out of the first 2 rounds in home drafts, so I won’t be owning any of them. The early rounds are when you build a core roster of positional players, and taking a QB early hurts a team’s depth immensely.
Tier 2
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Stafford9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Cutler9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Foles7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luck10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RG III*10
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Here’s where everyone’s rankings differ. This is my high upside tier. I believe anyone in this grouping could finish top 3 at the position based on potential. Stafford is being over-drafted in Round 3/4. He has all the potential in the world at age 26 but I can’t yet justify putting him in Tier 1 based on his inconsistencies over past years. Ryan is in for a HUGE year. Atlanta has zero run game and all reports say their WRs are healthy. Without a TE, this team should look to go with a more spread attack with 3 WRs, incorporating Douglas. Ryan was on a nice 3 year upward trend in all statistical categories until last year when the Falcons were decimated by injuries. 4500 and 28 should be his floor in 2014.
Cutler seems to be the QB I get in mocks because his ADP is so low. I don’t know why. He’s had some injury concerns, but that’s why you back him up with a good QB2. Last year, he was on pace for career numbers in Trestman’s offense. When he got hurt, McCown also put up career numbers. Trestman seems to be a QB guru. Cutler also has arguably the best offensive weapons in the entire league.
I’m high on RG3 this year. He should be fully healed from the ACL. Sure he is an injury risk, but you can just back him up with a high level QB2. The emergence of Reed and the addition of Jackson give him some lethal weapons to go along with Garcon. I don’t see Foles repeating his efficiency from last year, but he didn’t even play a full season and still had 27 TDs. This offense is incredible, and Foles should only get better as he gets more acclimated to Kelly’s system. Philly lost Jackson, but resigned Maclin, added Sproles and drafted a promising rookie WR with a high pick. This team won’t miss Jackson as much as some people think. Also, it can’t be ignored that Foles is in a contract year.
Tier 3
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Kapernick8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Newton12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Big Ben12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brady10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wilson4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rivers10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Romo11
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Every player in this tier has question marks. Luck and Newton may bump up to Tier 2 as we get closer to the start of the season. Luck should be in line for a good year IF Pep Hamilton finally allows him to throw the damn ball. Indy’s conservative offense relegates Luck to a borderline QB1, which is a joke. The bright side is that Indy’s run game has question marks with TRich. If TRich falters early, I could see Indy having no choice but to air it out. If they do, there is no reason Luck shouldn’t finish in the top-5. For Newton, it’s just a question of offensive weapons. I still think Carolina will add a WR in camp once teams start to make cuts. I’ll be monitoring that situation closely. The rushing numbers, though, have been and should continue to be there in 2014.
I really like Big Ben this year, especially at his 11/12[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP. He quietly produced a 4200 and 28 season last year. Reports out of Pitt are saying Haley is going to allow Ben to open up the offense and call his own shots at the line. This should lead to increased stats. I love his weapons. He’s got the vets: Miller, Brown, and Moore (recent signing). And he’s got promising young guys: Wheaton and Bryant. Bell is an underrated pass catcher out of the backfield, and they added a potential Sproles clone in the draft – Archer. I see no reason why Ben can’t replicate last season’s numbers, if not surpass them, as long as he stays healthy.
A quick word on Romo. Dallas will certainly throw more this year in a new system, but I’m concerned about Romo’s back. He’s getting older now and for me, he is a big injury concern. His situation is different than Cutler, who’s had more nagging injuries in the past. A back injury for a QB just isn’t good. I probably won’t be owning Romo this year.
Tier 4
[TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Palmer4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Manziel4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tannehill5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dalton4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Locker*9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]A Smith6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Eli8
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
It’s crazy to see Alex Smith ahead of Brady, but that’s what it’s come to. Brady has had a downward statistically trend over the past few years and age seems to be getting to him. His 4/5[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP is a joke. He’s still a good real life QB, and his numbers could be better than last year but that’s assuming Gronk stays healthy. There just isn’t enough upside to rank him higher than a borderline QB1. Alex Smith should only get better after a full year in Reid’s offense. That fat moron will have Smith throwing even more this year, which should only increase his stats. 4000 (total yards) and 25+ tds is possible, which makes his 13[SUP]th[/SUP]/14[SUP]th[/SUP] round ADP enticing. He’s an ideal QB2 to pair with someone like Big Ben.
Football Johnny is here on pure potential. I’m personally not a fan, but we’ve seen Tebow and RG3 have success running the ball early in their careers, so you can’t ignore Johnny. He may not start the year, but should see the field after the Browns’ early bye week. He’ll probably be over-drafted though. And he’s not a great QB2 if you decide to wait on QB because he’s too risky. But if you grab a top 3 QB, he’s a nice asset to acquire and trade later in the year if he’s playing well.
I’ve always been a Locker fan because of his running ability. Tennessee has sneaky young weapons, but it’s just a matter of Locker remaining healthy. Don’t ignore Palmer as a quality QB2. The emergence of Floyd and Ellington should only help that offense. Palmer put up 4200 and 24 last season. Those stats could improve. He’s probably not a good option, though, in leagues that make INTs -2.
Tier 5
[TABLE="width: 82"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][TABLE="width: 124"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]McCown7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]G Smith11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Hill4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Flacco11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fitzpatrick10[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Manuel9[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
These are more 2 QB league picks. I’m a big EJ Manuel fan. For some reason, I watched a lot of Bills games last year, and he showed some tremendous leadership traits in close games and pressure situations. The Bills have built an offense with some of the fastest players in the NFL. Look for them to utilize the short passing game, allowing Manuel to make simple throws, while allowing the skill players to get out in space and accumulate YAC. He probably will go undrafted in 1 QB leagues, but he is someone to monitor as a waiver pick up if he starts the year out hot.
Tannehill could take a leap in his 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] year. He’s going to have to if he wants to remain the Dolphins starter. The Dolphins brought in Bill Lazor from Chip Kelly’s system. We saw how Foles progressed, so perhaps Tannehill could do the same. I just think he holds the ball way too long and makes poor decisions. I’m not sure those are habits that can be broken by coaching.
A quick word on Dalton. The ranking may seem low, but all the news out of Cinncy is that this team is going to pound the ball on the ground. I see Dalton being relegated to more of a Joe Flacco type who may produce in a few games but can’t be relied on in 1 QB leagues.
Last edited:
