2013 College Baseball Regional Discussion

Schrute said:
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Towson vs Florida Atlantic - Chapel Hill Regional - Game 1 - Boshamer Stadium - Chapel Hill, NC</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]305 Towson[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_2" size="4"> +1½ -135[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +145[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o12½ -130[/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]306 Florida Atlantic[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_2" size="4"> -1½ -105[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -185[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u12½ -110[/TD]
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Florida Atlantic 26/30 vs Towson 90/101. Towson is a feel good story but its unjust that they are a 3 seed instead of a 4. FAU +1.2rpg and Towson +1.0. Towson 7-5 vs Top 50 and FAU 5-1 vs 51-100. Both teams swept their conference tournies but FAU is in a much stronger conference. FAU appears to be saving their ace lefty for a potential matchup vs UNC which is a bit cocky here. Towson's ace just threw 140 pitches on 2 days rest to win the conference championship game and I think this game could be where it shows. Volpe (9-3, 3.86) anchors an underwhelming Towson pitching staff (5.13 team ERA). I'm guessing FAU will go with Straun who is 5-2 with a 2.94 and 2 complete games. If Volpe gets knocked out of the game or doesn't have his best stuff FAU should run away with this one. Florida Atlantic -1.5 -105. Also may add FAU ML into some parlays
Click to expand...

Joining you here.
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Elon vs UNC Wilmington - Charlottesville Regional - Game 2 - Davenport Field - Charlottesville, VA</small>
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]311 Elon[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_5" size="4"> +1½ -170[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +115[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o13½ +120[/TD]
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[TD]6:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]312 UNC Wilmington[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_5" size="4"> -1½ +130[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -155[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u13½ -160[/TD]
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Wilmington 30/46 vs Elon 70/90. Wilmington +1.5 and Elon -0.3 rpg. Wilmington 10-5 vs RPI 51-00 and Elon 4-9 vs Top 50. Wilmington took 2 midweek games against Elon 7-3 and 8-5 this year. Interesting b/c both with midweek starters went under the posted total for this game but that juice is crazy high. Neither team has a true ace and neither team absolutely rakes which makes this a pretty interesting game. Both team ERA above 5.00 and both team batting averages are below 0.300 so something is going to have to give. Neither team has a starter with an ERA under 3.00. I will be waiting for either Elon to climb or the total to move. I would play Elon at +140 or above and the total at 13 with normal juice. Of note, Wilmington went 2 and barbecue in the conference tourney while Elon won 5 straight after losing the opener. Lean Elon and Under
 
You two keep doin your thing in here, great info...will be following and have been already. Not much to offer on college baseball as I don't follow much at all through the regular season. Always enjoy the post-season though...definitely $$$ to be made. BOL fellas, enjoying all your thoughts on these games.
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Liberty vs Clemson - Columbia Regional - Game 1 - Carolina Stadium - Columbia, SC</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]313 Liberty[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_6" size="4"> +1½ -105[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +170[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_6" size="4"> o8½ -105[/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]314 Clemson[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_6" size="4"> -1½ -135[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4"> -230[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_6" size="4"> u8½ -135 [/TD]
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Clemson is 14/25 vs Liberty 59/111. Clemson +1.4 rpg and Liberty +0.3 rpg. Liberty coach is a former South Carolina assistant and he looks awful in a pair of baseball pants. Liberty 5-15 vs Top 50 and Clemson 7-1 vs 51-100. Liberty did a great job of going out of conference and playing tough teams. They lost 2/3 to SoCar to open the season but both were 1 run losses. A lot of their losses vs Top 50 were mid week games. They swept the Big South tournament and pitched phenomenally. Clemson is fortunate to have 2 aces so they don't have to worry about saving either one. Crownover is 7-2 with a 2.05 and Gossett is 9-4 with a 2.53. As you notice those two great ERAs have 6 total losses meaning that Clemson can't hit the ball very well and they aren't very clutch. The bullpen can be shaky. Liberty only has 2 regulars who hit over .300 so that helps Clemson's pitching staff further. Not sure who Liberty starts but they have a solid closer. Guessing they will start one of these three guys. Junior righthander Josh Richardson is 3-4 with a 2.45 ERA and two saves in 62.1 innings pitched over 22 appearances (seven starts). Sophomore righty Carson Herndon has a 2.73 ERA in 62.2 innings pitched over 12 appearances (11 starts), while senior righthander Brooks Roy is 7-5 with a 3.39 ERA in a team-high 87.2 innings pitched over 15 appearances (14 starts). Liberty's pitchers don't throw a ton of innings. Clemson only has 2 guys hitting over .300 as well. Clemson has lost 5 straight against solid competition. I do kind of lean Liberty here and they have a few things going for them. So Car owns Clemson in the postseason and Clemson seems to be licking their chops for another shot at the Gamecocks. Does that mean they're looking past Liberty? However Clemson also has a tremendous amount of success against smaller teams in these games. They've absolutely owned Coastal Carolina recently in postseason play. Right now I Lean Liberty and Lean Under but am going to hold off and see where the line goes
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>St. Louis vs South Carolina - Columbia Regional - Game 2 - Carolina Stadium - Columbia, SC</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]315 St. Louis[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_7" size="4"> +2½ +100[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4"> +280[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4"> o9½ -150[/TD]
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[TD]7:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]316 South Carolina[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_7" size="4"> -2½ -140[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4"> -400[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4"> u9½ +110[/TD]
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SoCar 13/26 vs St Louis 72/37. SoCar +2 rpg and SLU +1.8 rpg. SoCar 6-1 vs 51-100 and SLU 1-2 vs top 50. SoCar went 2 and out in SEC tournament while SLU ran off 5 straight after an opening round loss. They are a pretty tough 4 seed as evidenced by the line here. SoCar is saving Montgomery their LHP ace and going with Belcher who is 7-5 with a 2.30 ERA. SLU is a good hitting club with 6 guys hitting over .300. Whoever SLU throws will have somewhere around a 3.50 ERA and SoCar only has 2 hitters who are hitting over .300 this year. This is going to be an overwhelming scene for SLU. I do think their hitting combined with SoCars weak hitting gives them a chance. They are a strong 4 seed but they've never seen anything like the environment they're about to enter in Columbia for a regional. Pretty sharply lined game here. SLU just doesn't have the pitching to win but I think they could keep it close. Probably will just use SoCar in some ML parlays. Lean SLU +2.5 and Over
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Coastal Carolina vs Oklahoma - Blacksburg Regional - Game 1 - English Field - Blacksburg, VA</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]317 Coastal Carolina[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_8" size="4"> +1½ -135[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4"> +165[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4"> o7½ -120[/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
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[TD]318 Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_8" size="4"> -1½ -105[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4"> -215[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4"> u7½ -120[/TD]
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Oklahoma 34/43 vs Coastal 45/51. OU +1.9 and Coastal +0.7 rpg. OU 3-3 and Coastal 5-8 vs RPI top 50. Neither team can afford to save a pitcher. Coastal with a slightly stronger SOS. OU has won 5 straight and Coastal lost the last 2 to Liberty in the Big South tournament. OU with a significantly further distance to travel. The Sooners are led by standout starting pitchers Jonathan Gray and Dillon Overton, who are each 9-2 and boast respective ERAs of 1.55 and 2.89. Coastal only has 2 regulars hitting over .300 this year. They will likely toss Ben Smith who is 5-3 with a 2.19 ERA. The Sooners also only have 2 regulars hitting over .300 this year. Coastal has easier travel and are a more experienced team coming in. The total is priced perfectly as it's hard to play a total under 7.5 in the college game even with the shitty bats this year. However I'm not sure why Coastal is such a dog here. I'd maybe make them a slight dog and put this one at OU -130 Coastal +110. Hard not to jump on the Chants here. Coastal Carolina +165
 
Still here, Dwight. Had to get some food. Watched this Louisville team up close and personal when they came to Lex and came away very impressed with their team speed. From top to bottom, Cards also have arguably the best pitching staff in the country, led by BE pitcher of the year Jeff Thompson, who did not throw in the BE tourney. They also have a closer who throws 100 in RHP Nick Burdi. 6'4" RHP Chad Green (9-3, 2.09 ERA) is set to take the hill for the Cards who was knocked around by Rutgers a little bit in the BE tourney after having success against them twice in the regular season. Louisville came into the Big East tourney riding a 16-game win streak but laid a big-time egg with an 0-2 exit. Falcons are running out ace RHP Mike Frank (5-7, 3.61 ERA), who's holding opponents to a .225 average in 97.1 innings of work and tossed a CG against Toledo on May 24th in the MAC tourney. BG allowed just a total of 9 runs over 5 games in the MAC tourney and shut out Toledo & Ball State in the semifinals and championship game, respectively. Like Louisville, BG's strengths are pitching and defense. This BG team was a game under .500 in MAC play, so winning the conference tourney was somewhat of a surprise based on record, but this team had high expectations based on their experience and pitching depth coming into the season. I know it's not out of the ordinary for a team like Louisville to lay an egg in the conf tourney after a successful regular season, but the lack of offense Louisville displayed in those two games was a bit disturbing. They've been able to get away with mediocre hitting all year on the backs of those power arms, so this probably won't be the last time you see me playing a Louisville Under in the postseason. Played Bowling Green/Louisville Under 8.5 -120
 
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KowboyKarl said:
You two keep doin your thing in here, great info...will be following and have been already. Not much to offer on college baseball as I don't follow much at all through the regular season. Always enjoy the post-season though...definitely $$$ to be made. BOL fellas, enjoying all your thoughts on these games.
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
Grind_4_Mine said:
Still here, Dwight. Had to get some food. Watched this Louisville team up close and personal when they came to Lex and came away very impressed with their team speed. From top to bottom, Cards also have arguably the best pitching staff in the country, led by BE pitcher of the year Jeff Thompson, who did not throw in the BE tourney. They also have a closer who throws 100 in RHP Nick Burdi. 6'4" RHP Chad Green (9-3, 2.09 ERA) is set to take the hill for the Cards who was knocked around by Rutgers a little bit in the BE tourney after having success against them twice in the regular season. Louisville came into the Big East tourney riding a 16-game win streak but laid a big-time egg with an 0-2 exit. Falcons are running out ace RHP Mike Frank (5-7, 3.61 ERA), who's holding opponents to a .225 average in 97.1 innings of work and tossed a CG against Toledo on May 24th in the MAC tourney. BG allowed just a total of 9 runs over 5 games in the MAC tourney and shut out Toledo & Ball State in the semifinals and championship game, respectively. Like Louisville, BG's strengths are pitching and defense. This BG team was a game under .500 in MAC play, so winning the conference tourney was somewhat of a surprise based on record, but this team had high expectations coming into the season based on their pitching depth and experience. I know it's not out of the ordinary for a team like Louisville to lay an egg in the conf tourney after a successful regular season, but the lack of offense Louisville displayed in those two games was a bit disturbing. They've been able to get away with mediocre hitting all year on the backs of those power arms, so this probably won't be the last time you see me playing a Louisville Under in the postseason. Played Bowling Green/Louisville Under 8.5 -120
Click to expand...

The CG Frank threw on the 24th was his only appearance in the MAC tourney, fwiw.
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Connecticut vs Virginia Tech - Blacksburg Regional - Game 2 - English Field - Blacksburg, VA</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]319 Connecticut[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_9" size="4"> +2½ +105[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> +260[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o10½ -110[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD]5:30PM[/TD]
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[TD]320 Virginia Tech[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_9" size="4"> -2½ -145[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> -380[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u10½ -130[/TD]
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VT 11/18 vs UCONN 79/60. VT +1.4 and UCONN +0.8 rpg. VT 10-1 vs 51-100 and UCONN 8-9 vs Top 50. Great schedule played by UCONN. UCONN swept the BigEast tourney to get in and VT won 3/4 in the ACC tourney to get a host. UCONN is a dangerous 4 seed. VT will start LHP Mantiply who is 6-0 with a 2.92 ERA. UCONN only has 2 guys hitting over .300 and a team BA of .269 for the year. UCONN will counter with Carson Cross 8-4 with a 2.50ERA and they also have a disgusting bullpen. Their team ERA is 3.46 and the Hokies is 4.31. VT has 5 guys hitting over .300 and a team BA of .290 on the year. This thing is totaled at 10.5 runs. Against RPI Top 50 teams this year UCONN is 12-5 to the under against that number and VT is 13-14 but each of their last 3 have gone under the number. Both teams are going with what you could consider their aces. Under 10.5 -130 and UCONN +2.5 runs +105
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Florida vs Austin Peay - Bloomington Regional - Game 1 - Bart Kaufman Field - Bloomington, IN</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
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[TD]321 Florida[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_10" size="4"> -1½ +110[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_10" size="4"> -150[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_10" size="4"> o10½ -135[/TD]
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[TD]1:00PM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]322 Austin Peay[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_10" size="4"> +1½ -150[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_10" size="4"> +110[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_10" size="4"> u10½ -105[/TD]
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For those who are curious Peay is a Grind endorsed play here. Peay 27/17 vs Florida 35/102. Peay +1.9 and Florida +0.5 rpg. Peay 2-3 and Florida 14-18 vs Top 50. Peay has won 15 in a row and 19/20. Florida lost their SEC tourney opener and hasn't won a series since late April against Tennessee. APSU Ace Ridenhuor has been given the go ahead to throw 75 or so pitches this weekend. He is 7-1 with a 2.22 and other starters have ERA above 4.50 on the year. APSU team ERA is 4.26. UF only has 2 regulars hitting over .300 and a team BA of 0.268. You have to think UF counters with Crawford who is 3-6 with a 4.03 ERA. APSU has 6 guys hitting over .300 and a team BA over .300. UF team ERA is 3.91 and they are anchored by a strong bullpen. Ridenhour should be able to shut down the Gators for as long as he's in the game and Peay should be able to score early. I do Lean Over but don't wanna pay that juice so I'll just keep an eye on that. Playing Austin Peay +110. If Ridenhour gets the go ahead for more than 75 pitches I may add to the play
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Valparaiso vs Indiana - Bloomington Regional - Game 2 - Bart Kaufman Field - Bloomington, IN</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]323 Valparaiso[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_11" size="4"> +4½ +110[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_11" size="4"> +460[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_11" size="4"> o8½ -160[/TD]
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[TD]7:00PM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]324 Indiana[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_11" size="4"> -4½ -150[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_11" size="4"> -780[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_11" size="4"> u8½ +120[/TD]
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Indiana 7/12 vs Valpo 183/178. IU +3.4 and Valpo +0.2 rpg. IU 20-3 vs 101-200 and Valpo 1-3 vs Top 50. Surprisingly they did not meet this season. Valpo gets in via sweeping the conference tourney. IU won the B10 tourney. IU will probably open with DeNato who is 8-2 with a 2.52 on the year. Valpo team BA is .277. Not sure who Valpo throws but he will have an ERA above 3.5 on the year. IU team BA is .305 for the season. Lean Over, Lean IU -4.5 but not paying that kind of juice. Will be incorporating IU into some ML parlays for this one. Should win easily
 
Yes sir. Going to add to APSU when I can. Probably my favorite play on the board. APSU's postseason experience vs Florida's youth. Huge emotional boost with Ridenhour back and healthy just in time for the postseason. Govs have a decent pen so not too worried if he only goes around 75 as you said.

Masoni: .388 avg, 16 HR, 68 RBI
Hankins: .351, 11 HR, 52 RBI
Harper: .345, 6 HR, 55 RBI
Husdon: .365, 3 HR, 38 RBI

Keep in ming OVC has always been a hitter-friendly league, but these four boys can play. Last year the sticks almost carried them to the CWS, but they lacked the pitching depth to get there. If they had one more quality arm I think they would've got over the hump. This team is reminding me a whole lot of last year's Stony Brook.
 
Wow, those are such disgusting averages alogn with that experience. Long trip for a deflated Gator team as well. May take a shot on APSU to win the regional when the futures come out
 
Lemme know if anyone wants a writeup on any certain game or wants reasoning for any plays. Just going to post the plays in the thread from here on b/c there are 32 games each day on Friday/Saturday/Sunday and there is no way I'm doing 96 writeups.
 
Good idea on the APSU future; Wahl is a freaking gamer. Headed to the park, got a game at 5:00. Back later tonight to see if anything else pops out. Thanks for the thoughts, Dwight. Good stuff. I'll be checking in with your picks thread later. GL with your plays.

quick recap of what I played:

Alabama -130
Austin Peay +100
UConn +2.5 +105
FAU -1.5 -105
BG/Louisville Under 8.5 -120
 
Thanks you too Grind. Don't disagree with any of them and on 4/5 so far. Just jumped on Bill&Mary/Ole Miss O9.5 -140 as well esp with Ole Miss saving Wahl
 
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>East Tennessee State vs Vanderbilt - Nashville Regional - Game 2 - Hawkins Field - Nashville, TN - ESPNU</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]331 East Tennessee State[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_15" size="4"> +4½ +110[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_15" size="4"> +485[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_15" size="4"> o10½ +100[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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[TD]7:00PM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]332 Vanderbilt[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_15" size="4"> -4½ -150[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_15" size="4"> -855[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_15" size="4"> u10½ -140[/TD]
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Vandy are idiots if they don't start Ziomek or Beede against Doane from ETSU who is a legit golden spikes contender.
Vandy/ETSU U10.5 -140
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Jackson State vs LSU - Baton Rouge Regional - Game 2 - Alex Box Stadium - Baton Rouge, LA</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Fri 5/31[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]337 Jackson State[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_18" size="4"> +8½ +100[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +1625[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_18" size="4"> o10½ -150[/TD]
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[TD]3:00PM[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]338 LSU[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_18" size="4"> -8½ -140[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_18" size="4"> -4875[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_18" size="4"> u10½ +110[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
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Jackson St is a play-in team in the basketball tournament. They're awful. LSU has taken it easy on teams of their quality this year but I'm not so sure they do that on Friday. LSU is pitching their 3rd best starter if that tells you anything. This is a free pass for them. I do lean -8.5 b/c LSU can seriously name their number and I wouldn't be shocked to see a 10 run inning here. Going to see where the line goes and would be happy to take -9 at less juice
 
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