A good article below. Will be doing a lot of C&P as well as doing writeups in my own thread. GL this postseason
Mark Etheridge
SEBaseball.com Publisher
Talk about it in
The Dugout
Probably my favorite line ever from any television series goes something like this:
Homer Simpson is criticizing his son's peewee football coach who happens to be his hated next door neighbor Ned Flanders. Homer's wife Marge scolds him saying, "Oh Homer, it is easy to criticize."
Homer shoots back, "yeah, and it's fun too."
All too often the NCAA Regional Selection process leaves us full of snark and criticism. I'm guiltier than most for going on rants about this team or that host.
This year's field has some opportunities for criticism and we'll certainly get to those but first off let's talk about the good things.
As we were watching the host site chase and tracking Arkansas' RPI drop by ten spots with each win, some of us couldn't help but wonder why a system this volatile was used a tool to decide who gets to play for the championship.
We've heard the arguments year after year that committee just goes by RPI. In the past few years that has transformed enough that when we heard the "RPI is a tool, not the tool", we're beginning to believe it. So we asked how this volatility in the rating affecting the process?
"We really tried to look, " Selection Committee chairman Dennis Farrell said on a media call Monday, "I think that the committee, and maybe more so this year than any time that I've been on the committee for the last three years now, really tried to look at what was driving team's RPIs.? The west was down a little bit more this year than it's been in the past, so we looked at that.? So we didn't just go strictly by RPIs.
"We really tried to look at strength of schedules, how team's built their RPI, and I think that that's healthy," continued Farrell. "If we were going to go just by RPI, we wouldn't need a committee at that point.? So there wasn't a whole lot of discussion about the volatility of it at the end of the season like you brought up, but I do think that the committee really tried to take a hard look at what was driving a school's RPI?? Was it legitimate?? Was there some extenuating circumstances that was overinflating or maybe under or deflating a team's RPI?? And that we really tried to zero in on that as a committee."
In the past there has been a perception that committee was blindly following the RPI like it was recipe for Omaha steaks. Instead, it appears there is some digging going on to determine who is gaming the system and who is legitimately trying to play tougher opponents in non-conference.
This season's emphasis on strength of schedule and specifically non-conference strength of schedule may not sit well with teams like Campbell and Auburn who were left out. But it is controllable - at least for most programs. A coach can't control what conference he plays in but has some input on who his teams plays in those early weekends. It sounds strange to decide if a team gets to continue playing in June based on what they did in February and March but that was the difference between Florida and Auburn.
More thoughts on the field ?
If the last "SEC spot" came down to Florida vs. Auburn (which it did since Texas A&M got a #2 seed), the Tigers have to be thinking about that Saturday game in Gainesville when they led the Gators 4-1 in the ninth and lost 5-4. A victory puts Auburn at 14-16 in the SEC and also would have put Florida under .500 overall. That ninth inning changed two team's seasons and as we learned later today, got Tiger coach John Pawlowski fired.
For the second consecutive year a bubble team that was iffy to even get in the field is a #2 seed. Last season East Carolina scored a surprise #2 seed. This year, it was Texas A&M. What do they have in common? Their respective Athletic Directors were on the Selection Committee.
So Towson is a #3 seed and Central Arkansas and Saint Louis are #4 seeds? Oh I forgot the CAA has a rep on the committee. Like that guy at the gym who only hits on married women, they're not even trying to be discrete any more.
Teams like Campbell and Western Carolina have to be upset today; Especially Campbell who not only won their regular seasons but also had an RPI in the bid range. Campbell won 49 games and sits at home while a team that finished behind them in the standings (Coastal Carolina) got in. Campbell's Strength of Schedule was abysmal at #237 and Western Carolina's was #130. Let that show all you schedule makers out there that the committee is not into padding win totals.
Want to guess which at large team had the worst strength of schedule? That would be Atlantic Sun champ Mercer at #153 and then Sun Belt co-champ Troy at #122. It's pretty clear if you are a mid-major, either win the automatic bid or build your SOS. Win totals and regular season crowns aren't going to cut it.
That is unless you are New Mexico. The west coast seemed to do OK in this bracket. The Lobos won the Mountain West (13[SUP]th[/SUP] rated conference) and has a plus 50 RPI. They got in despite an SOS at #116.
San Francisco has an RPI near 50 and they got in. Cal Santa Barbara - theirs is 57. Both had SOS under 100.
Clemson goes back to South Carolina for the second straight year. Some of us saw this coming. It is a great spirited rivalry that plays well on television. But we probably don't have to do it every year.
Florida got in - we've been saying they would since they hit the bubble - and you have to believe this was due to their schedule strength. They also didn't go to Tallahassee which is probably nice for both programs.
Alabama went to Tallahassee instead which is where they went the last time they made the postseason (they missed the field last year). The Crimson Tide will play Troy who they just played a couple of weeks ago. It should be a little different with the weekend arms instead of midweek.
The Raleigh Regional could be a doozy. You have to love the possibility of NC State's Carlos Rodon dueling with Ole Miss' Bobby Wahl on Saturday. Rebs are tinkering with going with Mike Mayers in game one versus William & Mary.
Mississippi State fans are happy to host a Regional but they ended up with one of the toughest. They draw the toughest four seed in Central Arkansas who shouldn't be intimidated going in to Dudy Noble since they won a series there earlier this year. ?
The easiest Regional has to be in Chapel Hill where the Tar Heels get a low #2 seed that was a bubble team entering the Sun Belt Tournament in Florida Atlantic and two #4 seeds.
The SEC got nine teams in the field while the ACC got eight. The Pac 12 and Sun Belt were next with four while the Big XII, Big West, and CAA got three each. The Big East and Big Ten enjoyed improved years but got just two bids. Conference USA got just one.
Some quick seed talk:
#4s who can win a game:
Saint Louis
Connecticut
Central Arkansas
Wichita State
San Diego State
#3s who can make the finals:
Oklahoma State
Florida
Mercer
UCSB
San Diego
#2s who can win the Regional:
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Ole Miss
Clemson
Rice
