2013 Bowl Thread

Jimmydafreak

Jimmydafreak

Pretty much a regular
2013/2014 Bowl Thread

Been extremely busy throughout December so I haven't really had any time to cap bowl games until yesterday (I went 7 & 3 yesterday). I have bet a few random bowl games prior to yesterday, but my plays have consisted mainly of 1st half UNDER bets. I will continue on my 1st half UNDER rampage today because, quite frankly, I think all 4 games today will play UNDER the total in the 1st half. Here's what I like today.

I can't believe I'm backing an ACC team here, but I think BC has a huge coaching advantage here. Rich Rod has always struggled with physical teams, and I think BC is the tougher team and will win the LOS on both sides of the ball.

3* Boston College +7.5
[SUB]0.5* [/SUB]Boston College ML +265
3* Boston College/Arizona UNDER 28.5 (1st Half)

Added:

2.3* Arizona ML (2nd Half) @ -230

I like pretty much like UCLA minus whatever. I think Virginia Tech will choke like they usually do. I have made it no secret over the past two seasons that I have a man-crush on Jim Mora, so I give the Bruins the coaching advantage in this game. I think UCLA will have some success scoring against that rugged VT defense, but I have no such confidence VT's offense can do the same.

2* VT/UCLA UNDER 23.5 (1st Half)
2* UCLA -6.5 (Hook)

Added:

5* UCLA -3 (2nd Half) *** Best Bet ***

Rice has been a team I've been riding all season, but I'm not crazy about them in this spot. Rice's success this season has been largely attributed to them being able to dominate opponents in the trenches, but I just don't think they'll be able to rely on that against a highly motivate Miss St. squad. I think both teams will struggle to score, so I like the UNDER quite a bit in this game. If Miss St. plays up to their full capabilities, they should win and cover. But they have a propensity to self-destruct quite a bit so I'm not confident they'll win this by a full touchdown. I look for a low-scoring, hard-hitting close game.

5* Mississippi State/Rice UNDER 24.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***LEAN Rice +7

I have a lot of respect for David Cutcliff as a coach, and I marvel at what Duke has accomplished this season, but this game is a mismatch. All indications are that A&M is a team that is highly motivated to send Manziel with a bang, and a highly motivated A&M team is bad news for Duke IMO. I think this game will play out very similar to the Florida State/Duke game - Duke will play tough and hang around in the 1st half - but A&M's superiority will show in the 2nd half.

5* TAMU - 12.5 *** Best Bet ***
2* Duke/TAMU UNDER 38 (1st Half)

Adding:

1* TAMU -13 & Duke/TAMU UNDER 38 (1st Half) 2-team Parlay


 
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I think BC +7.5 is officially dead. BC is not geared to come back from a large deficit. I added Arizona ML (2nd Half). Risking 2.3 units to win 1 unit.
 
With Logan Thomas out and no FG kicker for VT, I went ahead and hammered UCLA -3 (2nd Half) for 5 Units.

I warn you that I'm a terrible 2nd half bettor, so follow at your own risk.
 
I deserved to lose that Boston College bet. I know better than back an ACC team - especially with a 3-unit wager. :wtf2:

Terrible bet!!!
 
HammersSpreads said:
Yea my only worry is about the Aggies defense. It's the only thing keeping it from being a bigger play for me
Click to expand...

I actually think the Aggie defense will play very well, and break the hearts of a lot of OVER bettors. I think A&M keeps Duke well below their lined 31.5 team total. I look for a 49-21 type of score.

Duke will look very much like BC did early today. Duke is a power running team, and is not much of a threat through the air. Expect A&M to load up to stop the run like Arizona did, and if Duke gets behind (which I think they will), their passing game is not equipped to come from behind.
 
I think another notable aspect of this game that is being overlooked is the huge speed advantage A&M has, and playing on the Georgia Dome Fieldturf will magnify that advantage even more.
 
What happened in the 2nd half of the TAMU/Duke game (TAMU outscored Duke 35-10) is more along the lines of what I expected the entire game. TAMU's complete self-destruction in the 1st half cost me a lot of money. That may have been the worst 1st half defensive performance in the history of college football . . . and Duke is not even a good offensive football team.
 
January 1st plays:

With two relatively inexperienced QBs squaring off in the Gator Bowl, so I'll go ahead and take my chances on UNDER 30.5 (1st Half). And because I think this will be a very tight game early on, and because I think Marc Richt is a horrendous head coach who will likely invent some novel way of losing a game he shouldn't, I'll also take a shot on Nebby +6 (1st Half)

3* Nebraska/Georgia UNDER 30.5 (1st Half)
2* Nebraska +6
3* Nebraska +5.5 (2nd Half) @ -105
3* Nebraska/Georgia UNDER 26.5 (2nd Half)

5* North Texas -6 *** Best Bet ***
3* North Texas -3 EVEN

3* Wisconsin -2

1* LSU -7 (Hook) PUSH

5* Michigan State/Stanford OVER 41.5 *** Best Bet ***

3* UCF/Baylor UNDER 37.5 (1st Half)

1* Baylor -16.5


 
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With you on Nebraska +6 1st half, figure that is better than a game bet, as the Huskers might run out of gas in the 2nd half. Also have NT. Have LSU but teased it down 6. Good luck to ya.
 
tuckfexas said:
With you on Nebraska +6 1st half, figure that is better than a game bet, as the Huskers might run out of gas in the 2nd half. Also have NT. Have LSU but teased it down 6. Good luck to ya.
Click to expand...

Not to mention that Nebby has not been a good 2nd half team all season.
 
Added:

3* Nebraska +5.5 (2nd Half) @ -105
3* Nebraska/Georgia UNDER 26.5 (2nd Half)

3* North Texas -3 EVEN

 
Last edited:
I just realized I made a mistake above. That should have read Nebraska +5.5 @ -105 NOT Georgia -5.5 @ -105. I hope nobody play Georgia 2nd half. Here are my two tickets.

[TABLE="class: matchupBox"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]ONLINE
01/01/2014
10:32 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: teamCell"][TABLE="class: title"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: headertxtCell"] [ # 160477929 ] STRAIGHT BET [/TD]
[TD="class: statusimgCell"]WIN[/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="class: dateCell"]01/01/2014
11:00 AM


[TABLE="class: title"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: headertxtCell"] [ # 160477889 ] PARLAY (2 TEAMS) RR (1P-2T) [/TD]
[TD="class: statusimgCell"]WIN[/TD]

</tbody>

<tbody>
[TD="class: dateCell"]01/01/2014
11:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"] [2247] 2H NEBRASKA +5½-105 Score: 2H NEBRASKA(14) - 2H GEORGIA(10) [/TD]
[TD="class: statusimgCell"]WIN[/TD]

[TD="class: dateCell"]01/01/2014
11:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"] [2248] TOTAL u26½-110 (2H NEBRASKA vrs 2H GEORGIA) Score: 2H NEBRASKA(14) - 2H GEORGIA(10) [/TD]
[TD="class: statusimgCell"]WIN[/TD]

</tbody>
[/TD]
[TD="class: idCell"]CFB[/TD]
[TD="class: pickCell"][2247] 2H NEBRASKA +5½-105Score: 2H NEBRASKA(14) - 2H GEORGIA(10)[/TD]
[TD="class: statusimgCell"]WIN[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"][/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Adding:

3* UCF/Baylor UNDER 37.5 (1st Half)

Yes, we know about Baylor's prolific offense, but both teams have pretty stout defenses and I think that'll be enough to keep this UNDER 37.5 in the 1st half.
 
booksbestfriend said:
UCF does play ball control. If the Knights can control the LOS on offense, thid has a real good chance. GL Jimmy.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I need UCF's offense to go on some clock grinding drives. I like this play a lot. Probably should be a "Best Bet," but I'll stick with a 3-unit bet for now.
 
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Add:

1* Baylor -16.5

Going to add a 1-unit play on Baylor -16.5. I just don't see UCF hanging in there for 4 quarters. If this game is competitive at the half, I may add to it.
 
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SIGO said:
I did take them thanks. Helluva a day for you so far Jimmy
Click to expand...

Great to hear!!! UNT got off to a slow start, but I was very confident they were the superior team with the better coaching staff. I stuck with them and hit'em again at the half. Huge win for sure!!!
 
Games like last night's UCF/Baylor game is what makes handicapping so frustrating. I have watched both of these teams several times this season, and UCF simply does not have a prolific offense. They are a team that struggled to score 23 on USF and 17 against SMU (both non-bowl teams). Meanwhile, Baylor held teams like Oklahoma to 12 points and Texas to 10. In fact I thought the biggest difference between this season's Baylor team and last season's team was their improvement on the defensive side of the ball. There was absolutely nothing to indicate that UCF's offense would walk through Baylor's defense the way they did last night. I was confident that Baylor would get into the 40s (which they did), and that Baylor's defense would hold UCF around the 24-point mark. Congrats to UCF backers, but this game was simply uncappable IMO.
 
January 2nd - Sugar Bowl

Let's face it, Oklahoma is not a very good football team. If Alabama comes to play - and I've seen no indication that they won't - Alabama should be able to name the score here.

The Sooners have struggled mightily with QB play all season, and that is prescription for disaster when playing against Alabama. I honestly don't see where Oklahoma's points will come from tonight.

Alabama's defense has been particularly stingy in the 1st half. As a team Alabama may not exactly light the world on fire tonight, but their defense will most likely cover the spread.

5* Alabama -9.5 (1st Half) *** Best Bet ***
5* Oklahoma Team Total UNDER 17 EVEN *** Best Bet ***

I"ll be looking to pounce on a 2nd half UNDER as well.
 
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happy new year jimmy..i was leaning toward oklahoma tt under too..still might play it.
 
HUNT said:
happy new year jimmy..i was leaning toward oklahoma tt under too..still might play it.
Click to expand...

Happy New Year to you as well bro!!! Quite frankly, I think that's the best play on the board tonight. I mean honestly, do you foresee any of Oklahoma's QBs having success against Alabama's defense??? I certainly don't.
 
Lol absolutely agree. I took all unders and went small on OU and came out even bc of the OU ML. I'm a happy shocked right now.

Now ow ill day hopefully the last few games are more capable
 
never woulda guessed jimmy..no way..if someone told you knight would be manning for a night i woulda said give me some of that shit u smokin
 
HUNT said:
never woulda guessed jimmy..no way..if someone told you knight would be manning for a night i woulda said give me some of that shit u smokin
Click to expand...

Yeah, the funny thing is that the reason I liked Alabama and the Oklahoma team team total UNDER was because of Oklahoma's poor QB play. The funny thing is that it turned out to be the exact opposite. Trevor Knight was by far the best QB on the field and the reason Oklahoma had so much success offensively. Conversely, McCarron was horrible (which really did not shock me much quite frankly) which is why Alabama was not able to overcome the deficit. The game really could not have played out differently than I anticipated. I thought we would see something like 34-13. But Oklahoma scoring 45??? Would never have guessed it in a million years. Oklahoma OVER 17 team total turned out to be the lock of the century!!!
 
jimmy I agree I never thought that the QB for OK would have a game like that unreal
 
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