2008 cfb -- time to post my week 5 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
updated through week 4
overall 17-19-2 -6.68 units
Sides 10-17-2 -8.61 units
moneyline dogs 0-1 -1.00 units
totals 7-1 +2.93 units
middles/teasers/parlays/traps/etc 2-1 + $470



Overall , I feel great about how I handicapped this past weekend. However the results are all that really matter and i only went 2-4-1 for the week. As usual , a recap here from worst capped game to best capped game. Puts me at 17-19-2 overall but unfortunately i had less $ on totals to start the year. So results are worse than that record would indicate.

mississippi st +8 --LOSER -- This is telling to me since I don't think the mississippi st side was all that bad despite the 38-7 final score. I make this my worst capped game because I thought mississippi st would hold GT to the low twenties and slow down their option attack somewhat. The defense was very flat and gave upt he corner all game. Wtih dwyer banged up and VT taking away the inside run last week , Paul Johnson focused on getting the ball to the edges and it worked. He out coached Croom and made sylvester look bad. I also feel like I capped it badly because I did not foresee the bulldogs moving hte ball so easily on GT. The bulldogs did not punt in the first half and had zero points to show for it. miss state had a 24-22 first down advantage and GT had a 500 yard to 407 yardage advantage. So on paper that works out for a nice cover if you don't look at the turnover column. Unfortunately miss st was -4 in turnovers. Miss st had first and goal at the GT 5 yardline and failed to record a point , failed on 4th and 1 at the GT 38 , first and ten at GT 11 yardline and failed to get a point , punted on 4th and 5 at GT 33 on the first drive of the second half down 21-0 ( Croom is an idiot) , Failed on 4th and 1 on GT 7 yardline , failed on 4th and 1 on GT 1 yardline. So despite feeling that I misevaluated the game a little bit ( i expected defense from both teams and got offense ) , i thnk the bet probably was ok .... i wouldnt do it again so i dont think it was the right side per se but the final score is not even close to telling the story. What makes me feel good is that this was the worst capped game of the day and it was hardly terrible capping.

Tennessee +8 LOSER -- This game is hard to evaluate because florida got ahead so quickly. What I mean is that the stats are going to show that Tennessee should have covered this easily ( cept for turnovers ) but it is hard to say how much florida shutdown the offense because of the score. Another game where my team failed to get it done inside the 10 yardline. To start the game florida went right down the field and scored a td , Tennessee fumbled two plays later and florida got a fg. Just like that ... down 10-0. Vols forced to punt the next possession and the gators take it to the house ... 17-0 with the gator offense only having 49 yards of total offense at that point. Again , turnovers deep in your own end and special teams td are hard to overcome. Vols fumbled with 2nd and goal from the 1 and failed to score on another possession with second and goal on the 1 when they were eventually intercepted on 4th and goal. After those two second quarter failures the writing was on the wall. first downs were 16-16 , yardage edge to tennessee of 258-243. When i have an 8 point dog and hold the favorite to 16 fd and 243 yards of offense i usually feel like i am going to cover that game. Some of this ws due to the score however. Again , this is not a bet i would make again ( though i wouldn't bet the other side either ) but was hardly way off. lost the turnover battle 3-0 ... ( o turnovers for vs 7 against thru first two recaps )

rutgers -3 --LOSER -- Well , this team is simply lacking in heart. The game turned on me when rutgers ahead 14-6 with under a minute to go in the first half , fumbled inside the navy 5 yardline. A td there and i think rutgers covers the game easily. Instead they struggle the rest of the game as navy never feels out of reach. rutgers had a 17-16 FD advantage btu was actually outgained by 24 yards. Once again , i lost the turnover battle 2-0 ( 0 turnovers for vs 9 against thru 3 recaps ). On paper , Rutgers was the side in this game. Have zero problems with this bet and i would make it again. Rutgers played a bad game and could have easily covered anyway. In football betting , turnovers inside the ten yardline on either side of the field are hard to overcome.

miamifl -2 WINNER --Not really enthralled with how i had this game capped out as i felt it would be a defensive struggle a bit ... in fact , that was the basis of the bet. With that said , canes had a 398-362 yardage advantage while TAMU had a 19-18 fd edge. Finally wont he turnover battle 2-1 ( 2 turnovers for vs 10 against thru four recaps )

Arizona/ucla under 56 WINNER --Felt snakebit here as arizona fumbled on their own one yardline and ucla recovered for a td. But the game played out mostly how i expected .. there were a total of 26 firstdowns combined int he game and just 529 yards of total offense. Game fell 41 total points scored with a defensive td in the game so feel great about how i capped this one. 7-1 in totals ... a bright spot atleast on an otherwise disappointing day and season to date.

SJSU +10 LOSER -- Took a perfect storm to lose this bet. The score was 13-10 stanford with under 5 minutes to go and sjsu having the ball deep in their own territory. Reed gets sacked and fumbles the ball and the cardinal are set up deep but sjsu holds them to a fg to only trail 16-10. SJSU returns the kickoff to their 35 yardline ... have third and 3 at the 43 before losing 10 yards the next two plays and stanford takes over. Stanford for some reason decides to rush it for a td instead of taking a knee with 9 seconds to go. I had miami florida +21 in the game where urban meyer decided to cover for his boosters ... now harbaugh did the same and i am on short end of stick again. Can't cap it much better , as the sjsu team basically held stanford to 13 offensive points while i was getting 10. Had a 10-0 lead with under a minute to go int he first half and was trailing just 13-10 with under 5 to go in the game ... thought a push at that point would be a bad beat and somehow ended up losing. stanford made a 52 yard fg in this game as well. lol. turnovers were 2-2 ( 4 turnovers for and 12 against in 5 side bet recaps so far ) , fd were 17-16 and stanford ahd a significant yardage advantage after a slew of foruth quarter sacks and the late ponderous 35 yard drive ...good luck having a worse beat than this game this year.

utah -7 PUSH-- unreal. utah had a 24-9 first down edge ... no seriously .. 24-9. they outgained air force 440 - 191. One of best kickers in america for utah ( sakoda ) goes 0-2 while the air force kicker went 1-1. Lost the turnover battle 3-2 again ( 6 turnovers for and 15 against in 6 side bets ....unreal ) and the second air force turnoer was just a pass at the end when they were desperately trying to throw up field in the last minute. Air force scored on a fumble return for td when brian johnson was trying to make something happen in space. Air force had 53 yards rushing. how on earth did i not win this bet ? i did throw in a halftime wager on utah which i cashed.

So as you can see , i had a really strong week of handicapping that was not rewarded with results. 6 tunovers for vs 15 against in 6 games where i had a side , opponents were 12-14 in fg and kickers for my teams were 4-7 in fg .... and i generally had the better kickers ( see sakoda ) !!!

Enough to make you want to quit when you lose games like miami florida to the urban meyer fg and sjsu to classless Harbaugh not taking a knee but soemday i will benefit from winning a game i have no business winning.... or so i am told.

onto this week.

locked in


bet # 121 north carolina +7 added sept 21
bet# 122 miamifl -7 added sept 22 ( arizona charlies )
bet# 188 okie state -17 - added sept 21
bet# 112 west by god virginia -17 added sept 21
bet# 221 arkansas +28 added sept 21
bet # 165 kent st +17 ( too slow ) added sept 21
bet# 109 western michigan -3 added sept 21
bet# 131 cincinnati -10 added sept 22
bet # msu/indiana over 48.5 added sept 23
bet # 107 navy/wakeforest under 53 added sept 25
bet # 119 virginia/duke under 44 added sept 25
bet # 167 south florida/ncstate under 44 added sept 25
bet # 161 uab/scarolina under 48 added sept 25
bet #106 louisville -3 -117 added sept 26
bet # 179 nevada +4 added sept 26
strong leans

louisville -3.5 added sept 26
maryland +11.5 eliminated sept 25
colorado +6 eliminated sept 25
nevada +4 added sept 26

talk me off leans

northwestern +9 eliminated sept 25
duke -6.5 eliminated sept 25
eastern michigan +6.5 eliminated sept 25
california -26.5 eliminated sept 25
TCU +17.5 ( i am a believer ) eliminated sept 25
 
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Horrendous luck this week.

Look forward to your plays this week VK - it will be a big week for you I think.
 
Our UT bet was embarrassing...I know Crompton killed us, but still a really big mistake playing that one. Was never even close.
 
Dmoney -- keep waiting for the big week. All things considered between some unfortunate bounces and a few poorly capped games , i feel i am not sitting in that bad of shape really,

huntdog -- yup tough one to take,.... atleast my number saved me a loss.

jpicks -- i was standing in front of the ticket counter waiting for the second half line to be posted ... ready to take anything under 10. told my buddy to do the same. complete domination.

ETG --feel your pain bro. Atleast we had it capped right.

Lindetrain -- tend to agree with you. One of thsoe games where the box score doesn't tell the real story. Tennessee +8 in that game is a losing proposition. I am actually done betting against florida ... they haven't played a good game yet and are still 3-0 against me ATS. Just wait until they actually put it all together.....

I think yesterday was one of the best public darling favorite days that i can ever remember.
 
Two games I was on and regret too.

First, in hindsight the Tennessee bet was horrible. My entire thinking with this bet was UT got embarrassed at Florida last year, (a game closer than indicated run up on bad tackling, punt tds, int tds, crazy Tebow passes). Combine last years shallacking with the fact that UF Spikes made bulletin board material, the game is at Knoxville, I mean damn talk about walking into a bee hive with a bunch of pissed off bees. Tennessee's secondary was really young last year, now veteran and that OLine is great. The conclusion is UT is very very talented, and have been waiting for this spot for a long ass time.

Add in UCLA loss, and this spot becomes even more important for Vols with back up against walls. What has UT done in this spot in the past??? Oh yeah @ home in back against wall, they spanked as in blewout Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, last year they were Unbelievable.

I also said UF looks a little down on offense this year and was not impressed vs. Hawaii and Miami.

WHY ALL THAT ABOVE DID NOT MATTER
----First, I forgot to look at the UF angle in this spot. They were coming off of a bye, look at Meyer off of byes, incredible. They went to Kentucky last year off of one and I remember that result. I would take UF on the road in the SEC over any other team. They should of taken LSU out last year. Meyer coaches toughness and that works on the road well.

Couple things mentioned by Gary Danielson. The Vol Nation that week had no glimmer of hope. I visited their scout board the night before the game and it threw up a red flag, those people understand the intracies of their team and for a Fan base, the people who support their team in the most dire of circumstances to have NO hope and firmly believe they would get blown out was telling.

Why I believe they felt that way and the most important points.
#1 Leadership. Mentioned by Danielson in broadcast that Fulmer was concerned about this. This is a point that needs to be looked at more by us cappers. When things get tough, those emotional leaders are the difference.
#2. Coaching. SPECIFICALLY O-Coord, brother of ND qb savior. What we saw vs. UCLA, that was a sign. Look at vs. UF, the playcalling on the goal line. IMO you run it if you are going to go for it on 4th before the half, Clausen is just horrible never a good idea to rely on bad playcalling.
#3 Quarterback. I did not envision just how much this position would hamper the offense. UT could not call plays to open anything downfield, against a suspect UF secondary.
#5 Playmakers and athletes. UT has a great OLine but do lack some of those athletes UF has.

-----The darkest spot for UT was the horrible tackling that took place last year happened again. That punt return should not have been a touchdown. The emotion was not there like last year when there back was against the wall and I contribute that to Leadership.



RUTGERS, I knew this was a game Navy could win due to Rutgers problems but figured Rutgers does as good a job as anybody against that option and that Rutgers will finally score some points.

----This was bad capping because Rutgers offense is as f'd up as any offense in the country. Only getting 20 something on NAVY, are you serious?? yardage in prior games is misleading. For future reference, when you see an offense like Rutgers that can move the ball but in 3rd down situations or red zone sucks balls like no other that means you can't rely on that crap. They can't run and Teel and those receivers have no timing. They pass too much. 3rd down conversions very important and vital too capping.

Rutgers held down the Navy O like I thought but that offense for Rutgers is ridiculous.
 
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O-State said:
Two games I was on and regret too.

First, in hindsight the Tennessee bet was horrible. My entire thinking with this bet was UT got embarrassed at Florida last year, (a game closer than indicated run up on bad tackling, punt tds, int tds, crazy Tebow passes). Combine last years shallacking with the fact that UF Spikes made bulletin board material, the game is at Knoxville, I mean damn talk about walking into a bee hive with a bunch of pissed off bees. Tennessee's secondary was really young last year, now veteran and that OLine is great. The conclusion is UT is very very talented, and have been waiting for this spot for a long ass time.

Add in UCLA loss, and this spot becomes even more important for Vols with back up against walls. What has UT done in this spot in the past??? Oh yeah @ home in back against wall, they spanked as in blewout Georgia, Arkansas, Alabama, last year they were Unbelievable.

I also said UF looks a little down on offense this year and was not impressed vs. Hawaii and Miami.

WHY ALL THAT ABOVE DID NOT MATTER
----First, I forgot to look at the UF angle in this spot. They were coming off of a bye, look at Meyer off of byes, incredible. They went to Kentucky last year off of one and I remember that result. I would take UF on the road in the SEC over any other team. They should of taken LSU out last year. Meyer coaches toughness and that works on the road well.

Couple things mentioned by Gary Danielson. The Vol Nation that week had no glimmer of hope. I visited their scout board the night before the game and it threw up a red flag, those people understand the intracies of their team and for a Fan base, the people who support their team in the most dire of circumstances to have NO hope and firmly believe they would get blown out was telling.

Why I believe they felt that way and the most important points.
#1 Leadership. Mentioned by Danielson in broadcast that Fulmer was concerned about this. This is a point that needs to be looked at more by us cappers. When things get tough, those emotional leaders are the difference.
#2. Coaching. SPECIFICALLY O-Coord, brother of ND qb savior. What we saw vs. UCLA, that was a sign. Look at vs. UF, the playcalling on the goal line. IMO you run it if you are going to go for it on 4th before the half, Clausen is just horrible never a good idea to rely on bad playcalling.
#3 Quarterback. I did not envision just how much this position would hamper the offense. UT could not call plays to open anything downfield, against a suspect UF secondary.
#5 Playmakers and athletes. UT has a great OLine but do lack some of those athletes UF has.

-----The darkest spot for UT was the horrible tackling that took place last year happened again. That punt return should not have been a touchdown. The emotion was not there like last year when there back was against the wall and I contribute that to Leadership.



RUTGERS, I knew this was a game Navy could win due to Rutgers problems but figured Rutgers does as good a job as anybody against that option and that Rutgers will finally score some points.

----This was bad capping because Rutgers offense is as f'd up as any offense in the country. Only getting 20 something on NAVY, are you serious?? yardage in prior games is misleading. For future reference, when you see an offense like Rutgers that can move the ball but in 3rd down situations or red zone sucks balls like no other that means you can't rely on that crap. They can't run and Teel and those receivers have no timing. They pass too much. 3rd down conversions very important and vital too capping.

Rutgers held down the Navy O like I thought but that offense for Rutgers is ridiculous.
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great post ... agree with most of that. rutgers does cover and likely fairly easily if they dont fumble going in to close out first half. Team lacks heart to close out games.
 
harbaugh is an absolute shithead

cant believe we lost SJSU....

hopefully the tables turn and some luck goes in YOUR way this week... bol goin forward kyle!
 
cap -- yup. hard loss to take and even with as much experience with taking bad losses with the lucky wins , this one will linger for awhile.

hope you are right and the ball bounces into my players hand smore this week and not so much to the other teams guys ... hehe
 
VK, Did you watch the SJST game?


The ESPN play by play says SJST called a timeout with 1:01 left and a timeout with 54seconds left. Is this correct? Or is it a mistake and Stanford called these 2 timeouts.
 
yep...but well...why not call timeouts? You're only down six and the other team is running plays instead of taking a knee...stripping the ball and taking it the other way has happened before and I'm sure that's what the Spartans were thinking...problem is, when you go for the strip, the tackling suffers. Pretty sure that was primarily what cost us SJSU backers...
 
it was good coaching by tomey to call timeout .. he might get a fumble return for a td. i have no problem with him trying to win the game. problem is with harbaugh who risked losing the game for the purpose of covering the spread. I cannot fathom another reason for doing it. in any event the sjsu timeouts worked as it got stanford do make a stupid decision. Some people forget when baylor tried to punch it in on unlv on the last play of a game a few years back .. and unlv stripped it and returned it for a td and won the game....
 
I know you don't want to go against UF but -24 to Ole Miss? Man I have a hard time not looking at that. On the flip side, I saw a Tyrone Nix defense try to defend UF last yr and it was miserable.
 
E.T.G. said:
I know you don't want to go against UF but -24 to Ole Miss? Man I have a hard time not looking at that. On the flip side, I saw a Tyrone Nix defense try to defend UF last yr and it was miserable.
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i'm done.

not looking ... dont want to see the value .. i'm done. they have taken me for quite a bit of money ... i quit , they win , i lose. i'm done.
 
Not sure I like the UNC play. Is there any news on Yates? That team looked completely miserable without him in there and Miami is running pretty confident right now.
 
dylanphan said:
Not sure I like the UNC play. Is there any news on Yates? That team looked completely miserable without him in there and Miami is running pretty confident right now.
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unsure of his status at this point .. will see later in the week.
 
E.T.G. said:
whatsup with the battle of nevada?
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nevada or nothing for me. +4.5 i will look hard at wolfpack and under that i will look hard at the ml with wolfpack. have to check some things. More intereted in the total here as i see this one being VERY high scoring.
 
VK - Just to pass some WVU info a long. Pat White called a players only meeting and the players showed up late on purpose. Think besides a shit head-coach this might be a locker-room at arms with each other. Prior to the Colorado game, Pat White had called some players out.
 
E.T.G. said:
VK - Just to pass some WVU info a long. Pat White called a players only meeting and the players showed up late on purpose. Think besides a shit head-coach this might be a locker-room at arms with each other. Prior to the Colorado game, Pat White had called some players out.
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great ....... ... ... .. game would have been 28 a few weeks ago. White has some sand in his ...... his ..... shoe again i guess. Guy is a whiner and not a gamer. He and slaton were always great at front running but bad when the going got tough.
 
WVU will demolish Marshall..on talent alone...

Stewie is Steve Fisher without the national championship.
 
VK, if Yates is out...I have a hard time thinking UNC will be anywhere near the number...the backup was dogshit...hope he plays...just my opinion of course.

I am really leaning to COlorado...COlorado getting 6 against that anemic offense...if FSU can't score on Wake, how can they score on Colorado? thoughts?
 
HUNTDOG said:
VK, if Yates is out...I have a hard time thinking UNC will be anywhere near the number...the backup was dogshit...hope he plays...just my opinion of course.

I am really leaning to COlorado...COlorado getting 6 against that anemic offense...if FSU can't score on Wake, how can they score on Colorado? thoughts?
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yup if yates is out then i have to get off the game. if not , i think i have a nice matchup to exploit with unc defense vs miamifl offense.

Colorado looks like a play or needs to be looked at closely at a minimum .. the score of the wake game does no justice to how badly fsu played last week. I hav eno confidence in the coaching of the seminoles despite the plethera of big names on that staff. So i think buffs have a significant coaching edge and a significant edge at qb. FSU speed is a big concern for me though. colorado got shut down by wvu for the better part of three quarters in their last game and the fsu defense is markedly superior to that of wvu. Also ahve colorado travelling over a few time zones which i dont like. last tiem colorado travelled to florida was in 2005 and they got stomped by miami fl 3-23 the year colorado went to the big 12 championship and got rolled by VY. They lost by 10 at home to this fsu team last year and i think both teams are better this time around. Fsu home game to wake was really their first bit of competition ... sort of like a first game to second game scenario where most teams improve the most. So i have some concerns about colorado. Both teams have significant lookaheads with texas and miamifl on deck for each respectively. Now with all that siad ,,,,, i think it would take a crazy man to lay 6 with the seminole offense and think colorado is the side. The big edge here is qb hawkins understanding the system vs QB ponder ... well pondering the system. i am either staying away or playing colorado .. if it hits 7 i think i may be forced into it.
 
Quick thoughts ont hsi weeks losers ... errr plays ... hate when i jump the gun like that... been a rough go for me but i face the music and move forward .... and moving forward is easier without all that money in my wallet weighing me down......

okie st -17 -- ok ok .. i admit it .. i got a bad number here ... just assumed after seeing lvsc openers that others would pound this and with it sitting on 17 i felt i needed to hit before it went to 17.5 .. looks like it cost me. What i see in this game is a GREAT situational spot to play the cowboys. Last week troy travelled to TOSU and now goes back home and travels again to stillwater. Okie state is coming off of a bye week. This is a major , major revenge game .. can't emphasize that enough. Last year troy defeated okie state in a midweek game at troy , alabama on national tv. The game signified current okie st qb Zac Robinsons first start as a collegiate athlete. He struggled like most first time starters do but eventually became a very productive qb for them. The loss was a humiliating one and one that led to the whole Gundy explosion "I'm a man .. I'm 40 !" press conference where he defended QB reid. Gundy wants this game. Robinson wants this game. The game is sandwiched for troy though .. they had the huge game up in the shoe against tosu and the game following this one is the revenge game against FAU. Remember Troy lost the finale to FAU last year , thereby losing the conference and despite an 8-4 record with some quality games , they were snubbed from a bowl bid. Bad bad spot for troy. okie state annihilates average opponents at home on a regular basis and they have good reason to here. For situational handicappers this game is a wet dream. I got a bad line on the game but i like it a lot.

west virginia -17 -- another game where i got a bad line. The team has udnerperformed and there has been some turmoil surrounding the club but I cannot look past the line value that i get here or the matchup. WVU would have been atleast a -27 here a few weeks ago. now it sits a lot lower. A game that might have been a spot where wvu looks past little sister rival marshall , now becomes a game that the team should be focused for. Although they have started slowly they still have some of their goals in reach with ability to win the conference and go to a bcs game. They can right the ship here. Not sure how you folks value homefield but this line at 15.5 indicates that if marshall were at home that wvu would be barely over a td favorite. no way. Marshall has not done a bad job stopping the run this year but i think this is a tough one for them. i look for a beat down similar to what wisconsin did , only with the damage being done on the ground instead of through the air. If wvu quit then i lose , if they are men , then i win.... with entire big east conference schedule ahead of them i think it is more likely they regroup and punish a lesser opponent. wvu defense rose up a little last week shtting out the buffaloes in their own house for the last 3 quarters. 7 of the colorado 14 came on a short drive after a turnover deep in wvu territory. after that , colorado penetrated the wvu 30 yardline once before overtime. I am taking the athletes here , expecting them to be angry more than quitters ( tough given pat white history of quitting when the going gets tough ). Another good spot situationally in my opinion coupled with a line that we would have been shocked to see a few short weeks ago.

arkansas +28 -- don't really get this. bama is just 10.5 at arkansas and texas is -28. Arkansas is one of those teams that rates to get better each week and should benefit from this game being postponed as they got an extra game in against quality cometition. And yet this line is roughly 4 points higher than it was for that game and requires texas to win by a fifth score to boot. AS abd as it was last week for arkansas , look at the box score .....

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left></TD><TD>
333.gif
</TD><TD>
8.gif
</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>19</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency

</TD><TD>4-11</TD><TD>5-17</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency

</TD><TD>0-0</TD><TD>2-3</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>402</TD><TD>309</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>74</TD><TD>217</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att

</TD><TD>6-15</TD><TD>24-46</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass

</TD><TD>4.9</TD><TD>4.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>328</TD><TD>92</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts

</TD><TD>35</TD><TD>31</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush

</TD><TD>9.4</TD><TD>3.0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>1-10</TD><TD>5-30</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost

</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown

</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>25:14</TD><TD>34:46</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I have no problem at all taking this team at this price. Dick can hit his receivers in this game for some decent gains as rice and others have done to the weakness of this longhorn defense. Do i think they win ? no .. do i think they come close to winning ? not really. But petrino is a quality coach , they have an experienced qb ( who had two int return for td last week ... how many more does he have up his sleeve ? ) and they have recruited talent that rates to improve with each snap of the football. This game is lined as though arkansas were an average sunbelt team.

kent st +17 -- I love Nate Davis as much as the next guy and the win over Indiana was impressive ( i watched some of this one ). But this team is not used to being a favorite of this size. This game is lined a full td higher than boston college was for the game in cleveland ... kent returns the core of a team that failed to lose a conference game last year by more than 11 points. That was a bad game from kent last week where they gave up a lot of big plays but it is the only game where they played that badly and it was against a team that had just gone toe to toe with illinois and might be finding its stride. The iowa st game is deceiving because of turnovers early in the game as isu had a 1 yard drive for score after a blocked punt and a 20 yard drive for score after a turnover. kent actually out first downed iowa st in that game 20-14 and held BC to 17 first downs as well in that game. Ball st is coming off a huge win for them and has to regroup without do everything receiver Dante Love who got hurt BADLY in the indiana game. Too many i think.

western michigan -- i actually made this 4.5 if dimichele was starting at qb but we will see a redshirt freshman playing the position for this game. Western michigan will put points up on anyone and i just dont see how temple can expect to keep up without their leader and with such an inexperienced player taking the reigns. The spot also favors western michigan as temple was playing vs pennst last week while western michigan had cupcake tenn tech. Game lined at 3 points , all i am really asking is that w michigan win this and that does not seem unlikely at all given the circumstance. Hiller will find success with simmons and ledbetter through the air and West will provide the balance. AS always with w michigan , penalties will be a concern but have to think Hiller is in better control here than freshman qb for temple. Game should be 7. or 8 .. not 3/3.5/4

will get to unc game later in the week with thoughts.
 
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Agree on Colorado..Stewart is plenty fast bro, Colorado got conservative on O because the D was actually holding WVU for the most part..they were definitely bending but not breaking...and Ponder is no Pat White on the ground.

Time zones...it is what it is right?
 
don't know if this is a rumor or a fact ......

Yates Tells Teammate He’s Out For The Season

<SMALL class=entry-meta>Published by BomaniJones <ABBR class=published title=2008-09-21T22:16:04-0400>September 21st, 2008</ABBR> in ACC Hoops. </SMALL><!-- .entry-meta -->
<!-- .entry-head -->
yates-165x165.jpg
According to a source close to the football team, North Carolina quarterback T.J. Yates told a teammate that an MRI revealed a fracture in his foot that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. Shortly before 9:00, Yates sent a text message to one of his teammates saying his injury would sideline him for the rest of the year.
In the third quarter of Saturday’s loss to Virginia Tech, the sophomore got up gingerly after being sacked by Orion Martin, then limped off the field after being hit on the following play and did not return to the game.
E-mails and messages left with UNC Associate Athletics Director for Athletic Communication Steve Kirschner and Deputy Director Kevin Best were not returned.
This likely means Mike Paulus, who struggled in Yates’ stead, will start for UNC in Saturday’s game at Miami.
 
Yates still receiving treatment

Submitted by rpickeral on 09/21/2008 - 18:17 <!-- BEGIN tags -->Tags: ACC Now | T.J. Yates | UNC
<!-- END tags --><!-- BEGIN content -->UNC coach Butch Davis’ Sunday evening update didn’t shed much light on the state of quarterback T.J. Yates sprained left ankle: "He’s receiving treatment and undergoing further evaluation,’’ he said.
Asked it was a high or low left ankle sprain, Davis said: “He’s receiving treatment and undergoing further evaluation.”
Under the ACC's new injury reporting policy, schools report which players are having surgery and are out for the season on Mondays. On Thursdays, schools list injured players as out, probable, questionable or doubtful.
The Tar Heels were leading Virginia Tech 10-3 near the middle of the third quarter Saturday when Yates got dropped for a 18-yard sack by Virginia Tech defensive end Orion Martin. He was limping when he got up, stayed in the game, got hit on an incompletion the next play, and hobbled off the field while the Tar Heels punted the ball away.
Backup Mike Paulus, who had attempted only one career pass to that point, finished the game, going 3-for-8 and throwing two interceptions. UNC lost 20-17.
The Tar Heels play at Miami on Saturday.


i might need to bail .. even if he plays how good will the ankle be ?
 
FYI, official announcement on Yates from TarheelBlue.com

Quarterback T.J. Yates Injury Update

Tar Heels signal-caller out for at least six weeks. <!-- remove this block --> <script language="javascript1.2"> procad("http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/CSTV.UNC/SPORTS.MFOOTBL.SPECREL;pos=promo66;sz=120x60;dcopt=ist;",0); </script><script style="display: none;" src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/CSTV.UNC/SPORTS.MFOOTBL.SPECREL;pos=promo66;sz=120x60;tile=1;ord=1120668935939237.5?" type="text/javascript" language="JavaScript1.1"></script> <noscript><img src=http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/CSTV.UNC/SPORTS.MFOOTBL.SPECREL;pos=promo66;sz=120x60;tile=1;ord=1120668935939237.5?"> </noscript> <!-- end block -->

Sept. 22, 2008
<!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES BEGIN --> <!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES END -->
University of North Carolina sophomore quarterback T.J. Yates sustained an injury to his left ankle during Saturday's game vs. Virginia Tech. Although x-rays taken during the game were negative, an MRI Sunday evening revealed a small non-displaced fracture in his ankle. Yates' injury will not require surgery. He is expected to miss a minimum of six weeks. During that time he will undergo treatment and rehabilitation. His status will be re-evaluated after six weeks.<!-- STORY AD BEGINS HERE -->

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wow, vk...kind of surprised in your card. i understand completely your take on the kent state line, but i have been very wrong about that defense...embarrassing. ball state might hang 70 on em...i'm sure they'll cover this week since i lost all three weeks betting on them for a total of 7 units, but i'm done with them. very poorly coached; that iowa state was not an anomaly either, as all they do is turn the ball over, and i had their defense rated a lot better than they really are after watching that ull game. chicken shit team, then again i'd never take the ball side especially in a mac game, so i can see your thinking. i'm certain kent will cover this week since i'm finally off of them...similar to mizzou fades that i was off of last week.

don't like unc at all without yates...wouldn't bet on that fuckin paulus kid or any paulus kid for that matter... man was he bad; single-handedly cost me my unc wager last week. he might be enough to give the other side a look...

also surprised in your wvu wager...pat white isn't a leader and doesn't have the respect of the teammates, has been rumored to shave/dive, and they don't respect billy bob stewart either, rightfully so. this is marshall's superbowl and they've outperformed expectations in both of the last two weeks, and even played wisc very good for a half. also, marshall just beat a watered down version of wvu. i can see how you'd think it was line value, but i don't think the reaction here is necessarily OVERreaction. they can't throw the football, and their defense has not reloaded as expected, while marshall is playing with momentum above expectations so far. i think the reaction is warranted, especially in a game that means so much to the dog. for the last several years, wvu has been significantly better, while marshall significantly worse in my opinion.

your other games, i haven't really even given a second look, so gl on those, and gl this week; i think the only game i might be against you out of the ones you already have is that wvu game
 
broadwayjoe said:
wow, vk...kind of surprised in your card. i understand completely your take on the kent state line, but i have been very wrong about that defense...embarrassing. ball state might hang 70 on em...i'm sure they'll cover this week since i lost all three weeks betting on them for a total of 7 units, but i'm done with them. very poorly coached; that iowa state was not an anomaly either, as all they do is turn the ball over, and i had their defense rated a lot better than they really are after watching that ull game. chicken shit team, then again i'd never take the ball side especially in a mac game, so i can see your thinking. i'm certain kent will cover this week since i'm finally off of them...similar to mizzou fades that i was off of last week.

don't like unc at all without yates...wouldn't bet on that fuckin paulus kid or any paulus kid for that matter... man was he bad; single-handedly cost me my unc wager last week. he might be enough to give the other side a look...

also surprised in your wvu wager...pat white isn't a leader and doesn't have the respect of the teammates, has been rumored to shave/dive, and they don't respect billy bob stewart either, rightfully so. this is marshall's superbowl and they've outperformed expectations in both of the last two weeks, and even played wisc very good for a half. also, marshall just beat a watered down version of wvu. i can see how you'd think it was line value, but i don't think the reaction here is necessarily OVERreaction. they can't throw the football, and their defense has not reloaded as expected, while marshall is playing with momentum above expectations so far. i think the reaction is warranted, especially in a game that means so much to the dog. for the last several years, wvu has been significantly better, while marshall significantly worse in my opinion.

your other games, i haven't really even given a second look, so gl on those, and gl this week; i think the only game i might be against you out of the ones you already have is that wvu game
Click to expand...

Will be backing out of the unc play.

The line inthe kent st game is just ridiculous Joe. What would they have made this line if Love was available and playing ? 20 ? Another game where the line is a good ten points different than it would have been a few weeks ago. Not overadjusting for a few weeks is a strength for me. Sometimes it wil burn me if ballst really is 7 points better than i made them preseasona nd kent st 7 points worse than i made them preseason ... inwhcih case i would be getting slightly the worst of it ..if either one is not though then i have significant value .. and it is hard for me to think ballst is a td better than preseason projections with Davis' number one target out of the game.

I think most are going to agree with your assessment of the wearemarshall/wbygodvu game. Hell i agree with you that pat white is a terrible elader and stewart is a bad bad coach. I like playing on teams who have underachieved the first couple of weeks vs teams that have overachieved the first couple of weeks. No lookahead even remotely possible in this game for wvu .. and despite rvalry aspects of this game for the marshall side , it had to be hard for wvu to get UP for this team. Agree with you that evu struggles to throw , and there is some concern that marshall has defended the run decently to start the year .. but the value is too much for me to pass up. i will be in the vast minority on this play and can see the reasoning for the other side. you arent the only sharp i know that likes marshall.
 
He Hate Me said:
FYI, official announcement on Yates from TarheelBlue.com

Quarterback T.J. Yates Injury Update

Tar Heels signal-caller out for at least six weeks. <!-- remove this block --><SCRIPT language=javascript1.2> procad("http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/CSTV.UNC/SPORTS.MFOOTBL.SPECREL;pos=promo66;sz=120x60;dcopt=ist;",0); </SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.1 style="DISPLAY: none" src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/CSTV.UNC/SPORTS.MFOOTBL.SPECREL;pos=promo66;sz=120x60;tile=1;ord=1120668935939237.5?" type=text/javascript></SCRIPT><NOSCRIPT> </NOSCRIPT><!-- end block -->

Sept. 22, 2008
<!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES BEGIN --><!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES END -->
University of North Carolina sophomore quarterback T.J. Yates sustained an injury to his left ankle during Saturday's game vs. Virginia Tech. Although x-rays taken during the game were negative, an MRI Sunday evening revealed a small non-displaced fracture in his ankle. Yates' injury will not require surgery. He is expected to miss a minimum of six weeks. During that time he will undergo treatment and rehabilitation. His status will be re-evaluated after six weeks.<!-- STORY AD BEGINS HERE -->

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i will be bailing .. thanks for the update.
 
i don't think most people know how important love is to that ball st offense either....davis is nasty, but his targets other than love aren't even close to being as reliable. huge huge loss. the line is ridiculous, but i'm incapable of seeing this game without a subjective bias on kent state, who has handed me my ass....similar to your florida/ole miss situation...so pretty much disregard my thoughts on that game hahahahah. they'll be able to score on ball's defense...a lot...that's for sure. i may play the over
 
What I saw from West Virginia against Colorado was a great sign for this week. They got back to running like last year and were unstoppable and IMO will now be just as explosive as last year.

So what I'm pretty sure of is WVU is gonna put up 30+ easily I'd say in the 40s maybe 50s.

My concern coming into the season was defensively, they are young their but I actually thought they played decently vs. Colorado although one wonders how conservative Buffs went.

Marshall might put some points on the board that is a concern.

--I don't think all this chemistry issues will matter unless it is to the point that they don't try hard to win the game. WVU still played their hearts out vs. Colorado.

If the total isn't in the 60s I think the Over deserves a look.

Let's ride the Mountaineers Saturday Kyle
 
though you would appreciate this shit


From Sundays San Francisco Chronicle. Looks like we aren't the only ones asking this question, but what a lame answer.


Jake Curtis, Chronicle Staff Writer
Sunday, September 21, 2008

(09-20) 22:48 PDT -- Why did Stanford go for a touchdown with nine seconds left in the game and a 16-10 lead?



Coach Jim Harbaugh said he thought about just taking a knee, but said, "We really wanted to establish that attitude on the offensive line and the offense, to finish off a drive."
So Stanford ran two more plays after getting a first down at the Spartans' 7-yard line with 54 seconds left. The Spartans had no timeouts left, and, with the new 40-second play clock, the Cardinal could have kneeled down twice and walked away. Instead, Toby Gerhart ran the ball twice, the second getting him into the end zone from the 2-yard line.

Stanford's strategy brought to mind a Baylor-UNLV game in 1999. With Baylor holding a 24-21 lead with 8 seconds left, coach Kevin Steele had his team try to score a touchdown on a 1st-and-goal from the UNLV 8-yard line instead of taking a knee. Running back Darrell Bush fumbled at the 1-yard line, and UNLV defender Kevin Thomas picked it up and ran 99 yards for a touchdown that gave UNLV a 27-24 victory.
"It will go down in history as one of the most unbelievable why-did-he-do-its," Steele said later.
Steele said he would never do such a thing again, explaining that he was trying create an attitude of toughness with his team, hoping to finish off the game with a flurry.
Click to expand...
 
broadwayjoe said:
i don't think most people know how important love is to that ball st offense either....davis is nasty, but his targets other than love aren't even close to being as reliable. huge huge loss. the line is ridiculous, but i'm incapable of seeing this game without a subjective bias on kent state, who has handed me my ass....similar to your florida/ole miss situation...so pretty much disregard my thoughts on that game hahahahah. they'll be able to score on ball's defense...a lot...that's for sure. i may play the over
Click to expand...
Reminiscent of Bama losing Prothro a few years back. Went from scoring 35+ per game to less than 15 per game. I actually think that Love is more of a vital part of Ball's O than Prothro was to Bama. This could be catastrophic to this offense.
 
TopDaddy said:
Reminiscent of Bama losing Prothro a few years back. Went from scoring 35+ per game to less than 15 per game. I actually think that Love is more of a vital part of Ball's O than Prothro was to Bama. This could be catastrophic to this offense.
Click to expand...
I think you guys are way overstating this.
Huge loss - yes.
But, Nate Davis is still a phenomenal athlete, and has other targets, including an all american te, and a rb averaging close to 6.0 ypc.
Yes, losing Love is a tremendous blow to the offense, but it's not catastrophic. That being said, going to be tough for Ball State not to come out a bit flat this week, it's gotta be on all of the players minds.
 
In a really bad mood today.

As long as i am already in a bad mood .....

I am on the square side of the wvu game. No matter what happens in that game i am on the square side.

When a line moves from -17 to -14 within twenty four hours of open .. that is sharp money moving the line. Doesn't mean i can't win but for those paying attention .... when a 17 point favorite falls to 14 within 24 hours of open ... that isnt dumb money moving the line.

Also since we are on subject .... bought out of the unc game. just going to take my juice loss..... hate giving away money.

casinos/books have the upper hand on me right now heading into this weeks games.

Will try to get to the posts above later , when i feel more in the mood to address it properly.
 
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