2008 cfb -- time to post my week 3 card so far

RetroVK

RetroVK

This claim is disputed
full unit plays 4-11 -8.00 units
sides 4-10 -7.00 units
ml dogs 0-1 - 1.00 units

totals 5-0 +2.20 units
overs 3-0 +1.40 units
unders 2-0 +0.80 units
middles/traps/scalps/specs 1-1 + $170

futures
cincy over 6.5 wins , currently 1-1 next up is a bye week
purdue under 6.5 wins , currently 1-0 next up purdue hosts oregon

Well, i had a pretty terrible week in a lot of respects. i went 2-7 on sides and 2-0 on totals ... unfortunately the totals were played for half units. I was in El Paso for the longhorn game. Quick shout out to TF who scored the tickets. Outside of seeing my two best friends and my godson and his brothers , I had a pretty awful trip ... including the worst round of golf i have played since i dont know when. Was really busy middle of last week finishing projects prior to leaving town and then busy again this week catching up with some things so i was way behind as far as my handicapping work was concerned. I did get all of your PM. AIM and emails and apologize that i have not gotten the thread up in timely fashion this week.
As usual , I will recap last weeks debacle starting with the games that I feel I handicapped the worst to the best. Again , I learn more from my losses than my wins so tend to focus on those. I did not see a lot of football this weekend nor caught tape of a lot of the games so recap is very boxscore oriented.

northwestern -6.5 loser -- This was the game where i was thoroughly wrong about what would happen. Duke was the better football team. Duke had a 28-14 first down edge and 144 more yards of offense. Northwestern pulled out the win in what was sort of mirror image of what happened last year when NW dominated statistically but lost. Laying 6.5 on the road and having the opponenet out first down you by a ratio of two to one is all you need to know. So despite missing the cover by just 2.5 points , i think it was the game that i had misevaluated the most.

Wyoming -3 loser--Second week in a row that Wyoming disappointed at home and this team is now 0-10-1 ATS in their last 11 lined games. Wow, those are numbers the toledo rockets players would be proud of. Simply put , I completely overvalued this team in the offseason. They have very little imagination on offense and they seem to eventually make a key mistake that will cost them. They did a pretty good job of stopping the air force run game as expected but not being able to move the ball at home against that defense is astonishingly poor. Again , I laid 3 points with a team that couldn't cross the goalline. Bad news. wrong side. misvalued team in the offseason , it happens.

syracuse -4 loser-- simply put i didnt give akron enough credit for their new style of offense. i saw when they first started this uptempo style against central michigan last year after being shutout by miami ohio. Just was shocked that syracuse could not keep them off the field. Got what i wanted out of cuse offense but akron kept converting third downs ( 10-14 ouch ) and that was the difference. wrong side yet again.

pittsburgh -13 loser -- i hate buffalo. those guys cost me money no matter what i do with them. they played pitt pretty even 22 fd to 22 fd , and panthers only had 4 more yards of total offense. pitt won by 11 .. did not see this game but the play by play indicates that buffalo was the bet here. How bad has pitt underachieved to start the year ?

western michigan -6.5 -- marks the third game where i capped the winner of the game but didnt get the cash and two of those games were one score lines. Had a ten point lead but gave up the backdoor cover td with 40 seconds to go .. no luck as any fourth down near end of the game would have resulted in a fg try and protected the win. When you bet favorites though you have to accept that backdoors happen. Wmich dominated rushing the ball in this game. Feel i was probably on the right side of this game but not overtly so ... just hurts because of the way it lost.

central michigan +23 and cmich/georgia over 55 loser/winner--cmich started a tad slow but ended up with over 300 yards of offense .... that is what i wanted. Liked their style of offense against georgia and they threw for 250 yards through the air when behind big. Moreno just went nuts and the cmich team didn't have the depth to endure this game in 4th once it was out of reach. with cmich driving near end of first half georgia got a strange interception that i dont know how to describe and the slow guy returned it 78 yards for a score .. so feel good about this game , georgia just executed really well. right side in my opinion. total cashed easily.

georgia tech +7.5 winner --the two teams combined for just 30 fd and a whopping 6 turnovers. i like getting 7.5 in thsoe types of games. GT style shortened game and defense was stout enough to hold BC to FG attempts when the eagles threatened. right side but not as obvious as some might think considering they won straight up. BC had 6 more fd than Gt a slight yardage edge and more opportunities to score. Given how the game played out this was the right side though.

California -11.5 winner --won 66-3 and held wash st to 9 FD. enough said. right side

unlv/utah over 40 winner --went pretty much as advertised as they combined for over 700 yards. Was surprised to see unlv have the early success but otherwise it went as expected. right side

miamifl +21.5 loser -- couldn't ahve capped this one better. Miamifl defense tired and got disheartened a little at the end but it was low scoring as i predicted and miami was competitive for a vast vast vast majority of the game. was 9-3 heading into fourth quarter and an amazing series of events ensued to lose this bet. amazing series of events. culminated with urban meyer making a deliberate decision to cover the spread for the boosters by kicking a fg for no apparent reason and running the fast attack prior to that. i have zero respect for him but i had considered his propensity to run up scores prior to the bet so his weaselness was no shock. Hard to imagine i will take a worse loss this year... atleast i hope not. obviously the correct side.


on to this week , will get to my leans and so forth either later tonight or tomorrow. one game locked in at time of original post. losing so playing slightly less than full units. I am a believer in discipline and hard work and bankroll management.

locked in
san jose state -5.5 ( to win .7 units )( cris ) added sept 10
byu -7 -120 ( to win 0.70 units (cris )added sept 11
central michigan -3 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( cris ) added sept 11
central michigan/ohio over 51 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( cris ) added sept 12
southern miss +3 -115 ( to win 0.70 units ) (delmar ) added sept 12
southern miss/arkansas st over 52 ( to win 0.70 units ) (hilton ) added sept 12
Arizona -10 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( hilton ) added sept 12
nevada +27 ( to win 0.70 units ) (delmar ) added sept 12
maryland +14.5 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( stations ) added sept 12
TEASER 300 to win 300 , two team 6point teaser at even money , georgia -1 with western michigan -2 ( stations ) added sept 12

Strong leans
byu -7.5 --added to plays sept 11
virginia +11.5 eliminated sept 12
cmich -3-- added to play sept 11
arizona -10.5 added to plays sept 12
southern miss +2.5 added to plays sept 12
nevada +26.5 added to plays sept 12
maryland +15.5 added to plays sept 12
wmichigan -8 used in a teaser sept 12

talk me off leans
florida atlantic +17.5
ohio state +10.5
georgia -7 used in a teaser sept 12
virginia tech -6 eliminated sept 12
michigan -1 eliminated sept 10
 
Last edited:
I will comment more tomorrow. Love the looking back as always. SJSU is on my leans list as well still....
 
This weeks games look a little better handicapping-wise. I'm slightly on the down side too. I think we'll turn it around this week. :cheers:
 
Welcome back, San jose was a very scrappy bunch vs. my huskers. Watching them it was hard to believe they struggled vs Uc Davis( i think). Pick a good spot to go against Nebr.-as they have miles to go.
 
Dmoney416 said:
BOL this week Kyle. Is Reed definitely a go for SJSU?
Click to expand...


yup, it appears he is ..... i read the other day that he just got his bell rung in the fourth quarter against nebraska and that it wasn't even a concussion. He has been practicing. Should be a go. The head football coach said this will be the healthiest san jose state has been in a long time so i doubt he would say that if Reed was a no go.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I feel a big week for you man..gl.
Click to expand...
mmmm...big sexy in da house..:tiphat:

I feel like week 3 is going to be a HUGE week for many. Just a good ole Alimony hunch.

Yanks looked back last year and week 3 was a get smoked week. Historically I remember doing very well at this juncture though.
 
Writeups and thoughts might be shorter this week due to time constraints.

san jose state -5.5 --lucky enough to get this under the 6 yesterday and i see a great spot for san jose st. Both sjsu and sdsu are coming off pretty decent performances but i think how they take those losses will be different. San jose st competed hard against nebraska and was in the game for the most part. The score was 14-9 nebraska heading into the 4th quarter. sjsu hit a fg to cut it to 14-12 with about 12 minutes to go but allowed the ensuing kick off to be returned for a score and on the very next drive the torjans lost qb kyle reed when he got his bell rung. The loss of the starter coupled with the kick off return took some heart out of them downt he stretch and nebraska pulled away. sjsu was dead even in FD with nebraska at 19 each and actually outgained the huskers by 30-40 yards as well. But the most impressive thing to me was holding nebraska to under 100 yards rushing for the game and just 315 total yards for the game. San jose st has to come away from that game feeling great about themselves and the fact that they return home and have gotten healthy. SDSU battled with notre dame in what was notre dames first game of the year basically being even with them in fd and yards ... a ponderous fumble play near the goalline of nd resulted in an irish touchback and what should have been a 20-7 sjsu lead was just 13-7 and notre dame popped in two fourth quarter touchdowns to win the game. That has to be demoralizing for sdsu and now they travel again ( not far but still ). i made the game 8.5 so i feel i am getting much the best of it. SDSU should struggle vs a very stout trojan defense and RB davis rates to have success vs sdsu defense. A little concerned about sjsu offensive production but FG drives in nebraska should translate to td drives at home to sdsu. See a 27-17 type of game here. sjsu is an under the radar imrpoved team this year with all of the pac10 transfers reaping dividends for them.
 
here was the stuff i read earlier in week regarding sjsu health.

dick tomey

Discussing Player Availability:
 “We think we will be healthier this week than we have been all year. We have a better idea after we practice for a few days. We are expecting to get a couple of offensive lineman to come back. We expect Kyle (Reed) to be ready. Almost everyone who was hurt during the game should be ready for this Saturday. We’re expecting (guard) Issac Leatiota back. (Center) Justin Paysinger is expected to practice for the first time (Tuesday). (Defensive end) Mohamed Marah is expected back as well. I think we’ll be closer to full strength as we go along. If for some reason Kyle can’t go, Myles will do fine. In fact, Myles (Eden) came into to practice yesterday and threw some terrific balls.”
 
yeah it's a lot easier to bounce back from a tough loss at home. i love that run defense. i think it's going to be even more lopsided, but you never know...think my guess would be around 30-10. really like this team. very impressive to win the ground and time of possession battles on the road like that. looking forward to those tasty lines for the boise and fresno games at home on espn later in the year.
 
Added byu 7 -120 and cmich -3 within the past hour. Will get to reasoning of those a bit later.


joe -- yup i think this sjsu team will remind us of the 2006 version that went 9-3 vs the spread. That sdsu rund efense was giving up 242 a game last year ... mister davis should ahve his way.
 
tee , ddk , jpicks -- thanks fellas

dollaz -- thank you for the PM , very informative.

lalich out for uconn game .. that hurts chances of that being a play...
UVa QB Lalich will not travel to UConn

By Zac Boyer
UConnReport.com Editor


Virginia quarterback Peter Lalich was looking forward to leaving his troubles on and off the field when the Cavaliers opened their road schedule at UConn on Saturday.

Instead, Lalich will be staying home as well, with the university announcing late Wednesday that the sophomore quarterback will not play against the Huskies.

Lalich admitted last week to using alcohol and marijuana after being placed on probation stemming from an underage drinking charge in July. He recalled any drug use at Virginia’s press conference Tuesday, though he is scheduled to appear in court on Sept. 26.

“We have a strong set of standards and values on our team that reflect those of the University and we do not compromise those values to win football games,” Virginia head coach Al Groh said in a statement released by the university.

“Because I care so much about our team, it is best for me to step back temporarily from my starting position so that my teammates can focus 100 percent on getting ready for the game,” Lalich said in the same statement. “I make mistakes like everyone, but I have followed the terms of my probation and I am committed to our team and the University of Virginia.”

Though the news of Lalich’s situation emerged before the Cavaliers’ 16-0 win over Richmond last week, Groh allowed his quarterback to play the entire game. He was 39-for-74 with three interceptions in Virginia’s first two games, including the season-opening 52-7 loss to USC. He became the first true freshman quarterback to play for Virginia since 1997 when he finished 35-of-61 with two touchdowns in relief of Jameel Sewell.

Replacing Lalich will be redshirt sophomore Marc Verica, a redshirt sophomore who is yet to appear in a college game.

Groh was questioned on the weekly ACC teleconference earlier Wednesday about his depth at quarterback and whether he would have liked to play any of his back-ups in either of the first two games. Neither the question nor Groh’s answer directly referenced Lalich’s situation.

“Yeah, that would be nice if the circumstance presented itself,” Groh said.
 
Heads up fellas......

<TABLE class=formWrapper style="WIDTH: 95%; HEIGHT: 100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=formHeader vAlign=top><TABLE id=tableHeader width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaultFont align=left>General Alert! </TD><TD> </TD><TD class=defaultFont align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TH></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 2px; PADDING-LEFT: 2px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 2px" vAlign=top align=left>Time/Date: 09/11/2008 12:50:49 PM
Ohio State RB Chris Wells Doubtful
Ohio State RB Chris Wells (toe) downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs USC after missing practice

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
SportsNut said:
Heads up fellas......

<TABLE class=formWrapper style="WIDTH: 95%; HEIGHT: 100%"><TBODY><TR><TH class=formHeader vAlign=top><TABLE id=tableHeader width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=defaultFont align=left>General Alert! </TD><TD></TD><TD class=defaultFont align=right> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TH></TR><TR><TD style="PADDING-RIGHT: 2px; PADDING-LEFT: 2px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2px; PADDING-TOP: 2px" vAlign=top align=left>Time/Date: 09/11/2008 12:50:49 PM
Ohio State RB Chris Wells Doubtful
Ohio State RB Chris Wells (toe) downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs USC after missing practice


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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looks like key injuries are going to keep me from a couple of nice value plays this week ... Beanie is a must for me to play that game .. and i dont mean a few snaps .. i need him for the duration.
 
GL Kyle. I was leaning OSU all week until Beanie looks doubtful. No Play for me either.GL this weekend buddy.
 
byu -7 -120 --- A lot to like here in my opinion from both a historical poit of view and from a spot point of view. I also like certain parts of this matchup. First thing to note is BYU at home is pretty formidable against the spread. ( 8-3 the last two years ). Average margin of victory at home last year was 17.3 points per game ( 6-0, 3-2 ats ). In 2006 the average margin of victory at home was 35.1 points per game !!!! ( 6-0 , 5-1 ATS ). BYU has not lost a home game in regulation time since the first game of 2005 and have now won 12 straight at home.

BYU and ucla know each other pretty well. This will be the third time they have played in the last 14 games. BYU traveled to ucla last year where they lost by 10 to ucla but the stat line shows a different story. BYU had a 23-15 first down edge , and 200 more yards of offense. UCLA benefited from turnovers and won the game. They met again in last years bowl game. UCLA was far more competitive with one more first down than byu and slightly more yards in a one point byu win. The key play in that game was when byu had first and ten at their own 8 yardline with 19 seconds left in the first half and instead of taking a knee they handed it off and fumbled the ball away. ucla punched it in on last play of half on a short pass and cut a dominating 17-6 byu lead to just 4 points. The thing is , this is a better BYU team this year , especially offensively and unlike the two previous matchups the cougars finally get ucla in their house. Let us not forget the last time that ucla traveled to the state of utah when the utes put a 44-6 beatdown on them. Also take note of the spot .... ucla is coming off an unlikely win over a tennessee team that thoroughly outplayed them in their own building and byu is coming off of the scare at washington last week. It gets better , both teams start conference action next week but BYU has been focused on this game as it is the biggest on their schedule the first HALF of the season. UCLA has been focused on tennessee and get arizona next week who ahs been impressive to start the year. BYU gets wyoming next week who they absolutely throttled last year ( onside kick while up a million remember ? ). The stadium will be rocking. Reverse the homefield and the line indicates that this would be a pickem game in LA. I don't buy it.

From a matchup standpoint , i dont think that either team will be overtly successful running the ball on the opposing defense. Washington ran for 133 on BYU last week but about half of that came from the mobile qb locker and Craft is not that type of player. UCLA had just 29 rushing yards against tennessee at home in their last game so i wouldn't expect a huge day on the ground from them. The vols had 177 rush yards on the bruins in that one but i consider their run game considerably superior to that of byu. So with both run games slightly ineffective ( slight edge to byu there ) we look to the passing games and this is where i see a major difference. BYU can throw on anyone , anytime , anywhere. Max Hall is a proven starter with lots of experience with a system that takes advantage of both his skills and of those around him. This will be Crafts first away start and that cannot be emphasized enough. Not sure if the light turned on for the kid in the second half of the vols game or if neuheisel coached fulmer under the table. UCLA does not benefit from that coaching mismatch here. In a battle between Hall and BYU pass attack vs UCLA and craft pass attack , the choice is easy. Without having concern over scrambling qb locker , look for byu coverage to be slightly better this week. Two games under byu belt and jsut one under ucla belt.

History , spot , and matchup on byu side ... laying one td i can take my chances with that.
 
damn man, sick writeup. Hall might be the most underrated QB in the nation and is without a doubt the biggest advantage BYU has over UCLA. One thing about the coaching match up is that another way to look at it is that Bronco won't have the advantage of going up against Dorrell / Dorrell's offensive system. I'm also optimistic about UCLA's back 7 vs. BYU's back 7. BYU lost their two best LB's from last season in Popenga and Kehl and UCLA is getting Lockett back.

good health on that game and gl on the rest of your plays.
 
Why did you eliminate Michigan?

On BYU. GL this weekend, you're about to go on a monster rush, like last night when I won a huge pot with broadway then got everyone to think I was bullying preflop when I was dealt 9-9 the next hand... and yes I flopped the set and got paid off. Or as LSU students were yelling at the NC game last yr to mock Larenitis (sp?)... what a rush!!!!
 
VK,

UCLA QB Craft started for SDSU at Provo a couple years ago; I am not disagreeing with your play, but this is definitely not Craft's first road start...it's his first road start with the Bruins (which is I guess what you meant).

G/L,
 
Good luck this weekend VK. I like BYU quite a bit too. I think these kids are going to blow out UCLA>....
 
kyle- I really appreciate your objective reviews of the previous Saturday's plays. Especcially since I was on many of the same games. That Florida-Miami finish didn't let me sleep any better, I'll tell you.

BYU and CMU make my card this week.
Curious as to why you eliminated Michigan.
And thanks for that rather important item on the UVA quarterback, although I don't know how good he is.

Best of luck in week 3.
 
sportjunky said:
damn man, sick writeup. Hall might be the most underrated QB in the nation and is without a doubt the biggest advantage BYU has over UCLA. One thing about the coaching match up is that another way to look at it is that Bronco won't have the advantage of going up against Dorrell / Dorrell's offensive system. I'm also optimistic about UCLA's back 7 vs. BYU's back 7. BYU lost their two best LB's from last season in Popenga and Kehl and UCLA is getting Lockett back.

good health on that game and gl on the rest of your plays.
Click to expand...



BYU is actually thin at linebacker right now at linebacker as well. There is simply no doubt that neuheisel can coach football. Throw in Norm Chow in the booth and the kids will be prepared. I just believe BYU will put up points and I am not confident that ucla can keep up. Will know one way or the other in a day or so.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Why did you eliminate Michigan?

On BYU. GL this weekend, you're about to go on a monster rush, like last night when I won a huge pot with broadway then got everyone to think I was bullying preflop when I was dealt 9-9 the next hand... and yes I flopped the set and got paid off. Or as LSU students were yelling at the NC game last yr to mock Larenitis (sp?)... what a rush!!!!
Click to expand...



eliminated michigan after listening to huntdog analysis of the game. Boils down to first road start for wolverine qb and the matchup problem that they have because of inability to throw the ball. Should be an interesting watch , that is for sure.
 
horses said:
VK,

UCLA QB Craft started for SDSU at Provo a couple years ago; I am not disagreeing with your play, but this is definitely not Craft's first road start...it's his first road start with the Bruins (which is I guess what you meant).

G/L,
Click to expand...



His numbers were pretty damn good in that game as well ....20/32 216 yards 0 td 1 int.....
 
bull said:
kyle- I really appreciate your objective reviews of the previous Saturday's plays. Especcially since I was on many of the same games. That Florida-Miami finish didn't let me sleep any better, I'll tell you.

BYU and CMU make my card this week.
Curious as to why you eliminated Michigan.
And thanks for that rather important item on the UVA quarterback, although I don't know how good he is.

Best of luck in week 3.
Click to expand...


Dollaz gave me the heads up on lalich. He is an adequate qb , would mean less to me if it was a home game but I have no idea what Verica brings to the table and i assume he is the starter this week.

Just not sure that michigan can pound the ball on notre dame as sdsu did pretty much all of their damage through the air. Michigan has not shown the ability to pass effectively and if they can't get some chunks on the ground , I dont like the road start here for the qb. Last week was Notre dame first game of the year and they seemed to play better late .. biggest improvement from week to week is from first game to second game. Not sure how Notre Dame scores a ton either but just staying away.
 
thanks kyle.
You may want to go back to my thread to see that I have taken michigan, and why. LOL
GL this week.
p.s. you will also see that I am on Fla-Atl
 
This will probably be my final card.

small chance i add a teaser with some combination of florida atlantic , ohio state and virginia tech but i wont be playing any of them as a side. Apologize for a subpar thread this week. Sometimes there are not enough hours in the day to do everything we want and it has been a hectic week for me in general and i amtryong to cap almost two weeks worth of football since getting back in town. For that reason, the thread suffered this week.


bull , i will check out your thread concerning michigan and florida atlantic. both sides that i have varying degrees of interest in.

here is what it should look like tomorrow..... let the bleeding begin ....
san jose state -5.5 ( to win .7 units )( cris ) added sept 10
byu -7 -120 ( to win 0.70 units (cris )added sept 11
central michigan -3 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( cris ) added sept 11
central michigan/ohio over 51 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( cris ) added sept 12
southern miss +3 -115 ( to win 0.70 units ) (delmar ) added sept 12
southern miss/arkansas st over 52 ( to win 0.70 units ) (hilton ) added sept 12
Arizona -10 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( hilton ) added sept 12
nevada +27 ( to win 0.70 units ) (delmar ) added sept 12
maryland +14.5 ( to win 0.70 units ) ( stations ) added sept 12
TEASER 300 to win 300 , two team 6point teaser at even money , georgia -1 with western michigan -2 ( stations ) added sept 12
 
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