2008 CFB - Time to post my week 2 card so far

[LooseOnTheLead]

great stuff as usual..GL

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think they come ready and in better form. Don’t worry too much about the home field edge here for duke. It simply does not exist.

Just in response to this VK....I'm about to lock in NW as well as I've had this one on my radar for some time and am happy with the line and just going over articles and checking on injuries from Saturday..came across this article on how the students supported Cutcliffe's efforts Saturday...I understand you are syaing home field from a money standpoint...i.e W/L and ATS trends....but this was atleast interesting that he's trying to change that trend...

David Cutcliffe ventured to the Blue Zone for the early minutes of Saturday's Tailgate festivities to plead just one last time. He told them the game would be worth the students' time-he even promised, he said Sunday afternoon.

Cutcliffe and Duke held up their part of the bargain, and students found the dominating victory worth their presence.

Not even an 88-minute rain delay could dampen a newfound student spirit surrounding football games, as an area filled with blue-clad shirts in Sections 20-23 made Wallace Wade Stadium look more like Cameron Indoor Stadium, right down to the Cameron Crazies' wiggling fingers.

"It far exceeded my expectations," Cutcliffe said Sunday of the students' efforts. "I really was thrilled with that sea of blue there, surrounding the band-that was pretty neat looking from the field."

And the players certainly noticed the effect of having a supportive crowd, too.

"This is almost unreal really," Greg Akinbiyi said. "We never had this kind of crowd, never had this atmosphere. This feeling in the air is like Christmas."

Cutcliffe had campaigned and marketed for greater attendance numbers since he was hired in December and began another blitz on students last week, when he ramped up his public appearances, offered free T-shirts and almost begged students to make the short walk from the Blue Zone to Wallace Wade. And unlike almost all games in the Ted Roof era, students packed the newly moved student section behind the Duke bench. Most sat through the delay; some left and came back at 8:15 p.m., the announced kickoff time.

And while Cutcliffe made a point to open his post-game press conference by recognizing the students, he made his feelings clear earlier in the night. During the delay, the head coach walked to the tunnel to check on the weather. He immediately saw the students and ran across the field to pump his fist three times and rile up the Blue Devils' new 12th man.

"I couldn't believe how many people were there," Cutcliffe said. "I kind of instinctively went over to see them. That was as much fun as I had all night."

The goal posts came down after the game-but not at the hands of students. A group of stadium officials lowered the uprights and security officials blocked off entrance to the field. When the Blue Devils last won at Northwestern in Sept. 2007, Duke students entered the empty stadium and carried the goal posts all the way to the Duke Chapel.

Cutcliffe said he was against taking down the goal posts Saturday night, as he believes it is a celebration that should be reserved for "big wins."

"I don't know that you can pinpoint one, but those moments in time happen," he said. "It's a bad habit to do it every time you turn around.... If it happens at the right time, it happens. But I just didn't think it was the right moment."

And now more than ever, students might be in the bleachers to witness it.

 

[RetroVK]

Just in response to this VK....I'm about to lock in NW as well as I've had this one on my radar for some time and am happy with the line and just going over articles and checking on injuries from Saturday..came across this article on how the students supported Cutcliffe's efforts Saturday...I understand you are syaing home field from a money standpoint...i.e W/L and ATS trends....but this was atleast interesting that he's trying to change that trend...

Had not seen that article. Good find. The fact that it is still early in the year and they are 1-0 should help to maintain that a little bit.

 

[O-State]

yea thanks for that UTEP side last week, homer lol. you being so knowledgeable with that team I thought you'd have a good feel. There was Way too much unproven for UTEP defensively, traveling across the country, worst play of the week for me I capped that wrong.

Wisconsin play hurt, but Tennessee is what screwed me over considering it was such a large play. Went with everyone on Wyoming as it sounded good. Went 8-5 but lost money.

----Looking back, just about ALL games in which experienced vs. inexperienced matched up, expecially NEW coaches, who won?? EXPERIENCED, except Tenny. Look, Stanford, Rice, Troy, Temple, Michigan, Buffalo, Wake, Texas A&M, Colorado, TCU exp held, on and on I'm missing some I'm sure.

My week 2 Plays
PENN STATE
USF
WYOMING
ARIZONA
KANSAS
AUBURN
NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA
BUFFALO
WAKE
OHIO<link rel="File-List" href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CDan%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml"><o:smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com<img src=" images="" smilies="" redface.gif="" border="0" alt="" title="Embarrassment" smilieid="2" class="inlineimg"></o:smarttagtype>

 

[RetroVK]

yea thanks for that UTEP side last week, homer lol. you being so knowledgeable with that team I thought you'd have a good feel. There was Way too much unproven for UTEP defensively, traveling across the country, worst play of the week for me I capped that wrong.

Wisconsin play hurt, but Tennessee is what screwed me over considering it was such a large play. Went with everyone on Wyoming as it sounded good. Went 8-5 but lost money.

----Looking back, just about ALL games in which experienced vs. inexperienced matched up, expecially NEW coaches, who won?? EXPERIENCED, except Tenny. Look, Stanford, Rice, Troy, Temple, Michigan, Buffalo, Wake, Texas A&M, Colorado, TCU exp held, on and on I'm missing some I'm sure.

My week 2 Plays
PENN STATE
USF
WYOMING
ARIZONA
KANSAS
AUBURN
NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA
FLORIDA
BUFFALO
WAKE
OHIO<LINK href="file:///C:%5CDOCUME%7E1%5CDan%5CLOCALS%7E1%5CTemp%5Cmsohtml1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel=File-List><?xml:namespace prefix = o /><o:smarttagtype class=inlineimg title=Embarrassment alt="" smilieid="2" border="0" redface.gif="" smilies="" images="" namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com

</o:smarttagtype>

First. Sorry for the UTEP error. I completely misjudged them.

Think you made an excellent point about the experience vs the inexperienced. It did not always pan out ..pittsburgh comes to mind... but it was a very good trend week1.

gl on the plays , from that list i think i like wyoming the best obviously , and also like ohio. Of course , I like florida the least.

Before laying the huge chalk with usf and florida , i would wait and see how the weather pans out in that area. Not a big deal if you like the dog but when you like the huge favorite you want a sunny , wind free day.

 

[RetroVK]

Kyle
Great Thread,on NW with you. Curious to hear your thoughts on Notre Dame game.

I like notre dame to put a beat down on sdsu. I want them to prove it once first, though. The disparity in talent level for this game is pretty big. You know how i feel about laying those huge numbers though. A lot has to go right and you rarely feel comfortable. SDSU obviiously played poorly against a decent fcs team in cal poly, picking up the loss. They were minus 4 in turnovers there. That would be one of my concerns with the notre dame side as well .... sdsu has a game under their belt and this is notre dame first game. might be rusty , and the offense showed last year the ability to make boneheaded plays. Just the same , Notre Dame should roll and sdsu should struggle offensively. When I lay three td i like to KNOW what my favorite can do .. here i just THINK notre dame will be improved. I want to see it once first.

 

[Marlo]

I like notre dame to put a beat down on sdsu. I want them to prove it once first, though. The disparity in talent level for this game is pretty big. You know how i feel about laying those huge numbers though. A lot has to go right and you rarely feel comfortable. SDSU obviiously played poorly against a decent fcs team in cal poly, picking up the loss. They were minus 4 in turnovers there. That would be one of my concerns with the notre dame side as well .... sdsu has a game under their belt and this is notre dame first game. might be rusty , and the offense showed last year the ability to make boneheaded plays. Just the same , Notre Dame should roll and sdsu should struggle offensively. When I lay three td i like to KNOW what my favorite can do .. here i just THINK notre dame will be improved. I want to see it once first.

Thanks Kyle. appreciate the feedback:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

added two totals today so far ....

unlv at utah over 40 ... .55 units to win .50 units
cmich at georgia over 55 ....55 units to win .50 units

i raised my unit from .4 to .5 this week on totals since i went 3-0 with them last week. gradually getting my confidence back with those.

 

[E.T.G.]

I am eyeing up WMU hard, thoughts in a second. I also have a few questions for u on sum games

 

[RetroVK]

looseonthelead -- thanks brutha

etg -- ready and willing to discuss almost any game. there are one or two i still dont have fully capped out yet.

 

[bull]

BC not a team that is going to put up a ton of points .... GT will be competitive and the game will be low scoring ... and will be lined low scoring. the 7.5 will always be in range.

Kyle- I'd be surprised if you are not correct on this assessment. BC offense, so so. BC defense- excellent.
GT- ball control team

When do you go back to the USU avatar?? And why USU in the first place? I would think UTEP Miners or maybe a Texas Longhorn ?

BTW- Shouldn't your sides record at the top of the thread read 2-4 ?

GL this week.
bull
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__________________

 

[RetroVK]

BC not a team that is going to put up a ton of points .... GT will be competitive and the game will be low scoring ... and will be lined low scoring. the 7.5 will always be in range.

Kyle- I'd be surprised if you are not correct on this assessment. BC offense, so so. BC defense- excellent.
GT- ball control team

When do you go back to the USU avatar?? And why USU in the first place? I would think UTEP Miners or maybe a Texas Longhorn ?

BTW- Shouldn't your sides record at the top of the thread read 2-4 ?

GL this week.
bull
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________

agree with yo on BC. i wont be able to go back to the utah state avatar until i get back from trip to el paso. i have to keep it up a week which would end thursday night and i wont be around and not sure that i get online much down there. if i do get time to get online i wont have time to change the avatar so tis gonna hve to wait until i get back. i just sort of adopted utah state cause they suck so bad. i cheer for the little guy.

i went 2-4 on full unit plays but 2-3 on sides and 0-1 with the utep ml play. i believe the 2-3 (sides) is accurate and the utep loss ( ml dogs ) is properly recorded as well. just broken down into more detail. so the full unit plays were 2-4 , the 0.40 unit plays ( totals ) were 3-0.


if you guys prefer i can have a separate category for full unit plays if it makes it more clear to follow what is going on.

 

[RetroVK]

alright added a line to record keeping to make it easier to read. it was accurate before ... i just added the underlined part to show how full unit games are broken down. 2-4 = 2-3 on sides plus 0-1 ml dog . sorry for any confusion.

 

[JPicks]

Just leave the damn Utah avatar up.


Like that Utah over. A small worry on my behalf about a potential shutout. I know the Ute defense will want it. Of course I've been pimping UNLV overs all year as I think they have a talented offense and not much on the other side. If I was more shore that Clayton wasn't going to go another game w/out a turnover I'd be all over this one. He can't go two games w/out one can he?

 

[RetroVK]

Just leave the damn Utah avatar up.


Like that Utah over. A small worry on my behalf about a potential shutout. I know the Ute defense will want it. Of course I've been pimping UNLV overs all year as I think they have a talented offense and not much on the other side. If I was more shore that Clayton wasn't going to go another game w/out a turnover I'd be all over this one. He can't go two games w/out one can he?

i think utah will focus on stopping frank the tank and will do that effectively. utah gets a big early lead and unlv throws a lot. rebels have a good wr group. outside chance utah could hit the 40 on their own as well. Score 25 at the big house against a quality defense with 15 penalties for 137 yards and 3 turnovers. pretty easy to expect more than that at home against a sorry unlv defense.

 

[sirwinzalot]

Congrats on the TCU play last week, was on the wrong side with New Mexico. On a couple of your plays, leans, and talk me off plays this week.

Miami, G-Tech, Penn State, Temple,

 

[broadwayjoe]

wow i didn't realize that we're on the same page with a lot of leans here...some in different stages of development haha. that's a refreshing change

good stuff on miami; i think that i'm probably going to talk myself into that one. could you imagine going into a coma 7 years ago and waking up this week to florida being 21 point favorites to miami??? pretty mind-boggling

 

[E.T.G.]

What do you think about the new Mike Leech at Arizona this week. After seeing what he did last week, against a bad Toledo team and his job on the line, hard to imagine him not being relentless at home once again?

 

[RetroVK]

What do you think about the new Mike Leech at Arizona this week. After seeing what he did last week, against a bad Toledo team and his job on the line, hard to imagine him not being relentless at home once again?

Being related to head coach of oklahomo is enough to make me dislike him but if he is a mike leach wannabe he will be on the short list , lol. Staying away from that game. Arizona has a lot of inexperience on defense but the players are all highly regarded recruits. If he actually has those kids up to speed already then Arizona will be a formidable team all year. I am not a 20+ laying type of capper. Some guys are good at picking those spots but I am not. So maybe once or twice a year you will see me do it. This won't be one of them. MAC did pretty well in nonconference ATS in week 1. Toledo should have a good offense this year. Arizona probably rolls but i am not laying the chalk. BTW stoops actually called off the dogs. Scoring in second half was turnover related, he had the backups in, so it wasn't exactly mike leach material.

 

[RetroVK]

I eliminated nevada from my talk me off leans. The main reason is BAR analysis in his thread. Very convincing argument made for the texas tech side. I wanted to play nevada as a home dog with a backdoor cover offense at anything over two td but the line came out a little low. Then considered waiting for it to get higher by kickoff , which it might, but now i dont care.

i eliminated pennstate from my talk me offs. It's over two td so i missed the value in the line. It looks like rain , in fact it has the highest probability of rain of any game in the country right now. oregon st is a quality coached team and rain takes out a lot of the crowd element and a lot of explosiveness out of the offenses. too big a number to be laying in weather situation and i will be out of town and too busy having a few beers with high school best friends to check on the late weather report.

eliminated michigan. big difference between 13.5 and 14.5. if it falls back down , i will revisit but this was barely on the list to begin with. I rarely end up on dd favorites from my talk me off leans....rarely.

Also, i had an initial lean to ecu this week but as the line has dropped and given wvu history of success in games with rain and after looking deeper into the game i actually like the west virginia side of the game. put zero stock into the villanova game. 600 yards to 160 advantage or thereabouts for this game last year for mountaineers. That is a lot of improvement to keep it within the number. wvu was added to talk me offs and i actually am starting to like this a little bit as it sits 7.5 now. if it hits 7 i might even consider buying the half point and laying 6.5 We'll see though. By power rating this is off a bit , and the VT victory may look a little less impressive by years end.

 

[bull]

well, fwiw, I too do not like to lay 20 point chalk.
seems that whenever I do lay it-which is rarely- it's the kiss of death for the FAV.
Enjoy those beers.
bull

 

[broadwayjoe]

Also, i had an initial lean to ecu this week but as the line has dropped and given wvu history of success in games with rain and after looking deeper into the game i actually like the west virginia side of the game. put zero stock into the villanova game. 600 yards to 160 advantage or thereabouts for this game last year for mountaineers. That is a lot of improvement to keep it within the number. wvu was added to talk me offs and i actually am starting to like this a little bit as it sits 7.5 now. if it hits 7 i might even consider buying the half point and laying 6.5 We'll see though. By power rating this is off a bit , and the VT victory may look a little less impressive by years end.

oh good. we do have something to argue about this week :36_11_6:

 

[RetroVK]

oh good. we do have something to argue about this week :36_11_6:

i'd kill for a ECU avatar over this thing .....

 

[TopDaddy]

Alright Kyle, question...

Last week Kent St was only a 10 pt dog at home against a top tier ACC team. Now, they go to the 11th or 12th best Big 12 team and get only a FG less. Was the BC performance that bad, or is this line completly off? You'd figure if the books think they had last weeks' line at -10 correct, with the loss, it would seem this line should be at about ISU -2 or so simply because of HFA. This one screams Kent St. to me. Your thoughts?

 

[RetroVK]

Alright Kyle, question...

Last week Kent St was only a 10 pt dog at home against a top tier ACC team. Now, they go to the 11th or 12th best Big 12 team and get only a FG less. Was the BC performance that bad, or is this line completly off? You'd figure if the books think they had last weeks' line at -10 correct, with the loss, it would seem this line should be at about ISU -2 or so simply because of HFA. This one screams Kent St. to me. Your thoughts?

Yup from a line value standpoint and from a matchup standpoint this game seems to scream out kent st...... The boston college matchup was just horrendous last week for the golden flashes. they want to give the ball to jarvis and the running game and it just so happens that is what BC defends really well. The problem I am having is motivation is a huge factor in college football and i dont like that kent st beat iowa st last year. With that said , it has to be noted that iowa st has their biggest game of the year next week when they travel to iowa city to face the hawkeyes. But can they really be looking ahead after losing to kent last year ? The thing about last years game is that it wasn't flukish. the flashes outplayed iowa st. Considering some of the offenses that iowa st played last year , they have really nice stats against the run and return the core to that defense. But kent st ran for over 200 against them,.... iowa st turned it around a little to end last year at home. They played oklahoma to a 7-17 score , defeated kstate 31-20 , and beat colorado 31-28 . That is a pretty impressive run at home. The kent game last year at the start of the year was when iowa st was not a very good football team.

dunno what i am going to do with this. 7.5 seems hard to pass up. The game is lined at 42 points being scored which equates to the books expecting iowa st to score about 24-25 points. So based on that , i tend to think kent st is in the game with a chance to win or cover in the fourth.

my instincts tell me that iowa st wins and covers , but when i cap the whole thing out , kent st looks like the play. usually my capping wins in a battle vs my instincts. For that reason , I usually go against my instincts.

sorry for a rambling , unorganized response to this question. The point-counterpoint for this game is pretty wierd.

MAC ooc has been a decent angle to start the year.

One thing that i would disagree with you on is the assessment of BC as a top tier acc team but ithink your point is well taken anyway ,,,, they are clearly superior to iowa st.

how about sharing any more thoughts on that game with me .. maybe you can push me over the edge and into actually betting the game

 

[RetroVK]

well, fwiw, I too do not like to lay 20 point chalk.
seems that whenever I do lay it-which is rarely- it's the kiss of death for the FAV.
Enjoy those beers.
bull

will definitely enjoy the beer errr beers.

yup , big chalk is kiss of death for me too.

 

[RetroVK]

Alright i added a couple of plays and eliminated a couple more. first i eliminated ohio and stanford. I have just had a fear of cardinals melting in second half to arizona st. ( see sun devils second halves at home last year ) and like the sun devils run defense matched up against the bruising back of stanford.... just enough to eliminate it. ohio i am worried that buckeyes play hareder than they normally would to prove they can do it without beanie. it is a question of want to here and the big edge for ohio is that usc is on deck. not sure about the anser so letting it go.

Added syracuse -4 and pittsburgh -13. have a feeling that at some point the cuse line hits 3.5 but as i have said ... i am leaving town and wont have time to check on it.

syracuse -- competitive i thought vs nw and i was impressed by their improved run game. That should work out well againt akron who struggled vs the run last week. back to back roadies for akron and i make syracuse the favorite on akrons field so find the line drop slightly puzzling. i have akron as bad as any team in their conference and will take my chances with the cuse here.

pittsburgh -- my eyes deceived me a little bit with the BG game. pitt actually dominated them a little bit and now instead of swelled heads you have an angry team facing a buffalo squad fresh off a victory. i like the spot and i like pitts chances of pounding the hell out of the ball. the line seems to indicate that buffalo is basically on par with Bg and i simply dont agree. throw in the difference in attitude that should be brought to the stadium and i like it even more. pittsburgh going away.....

 

[LooseOnTheLead]

Alright i added a couple of plays and eliminated a couple more. first i eliminated ohio and stanford. I have just had a fear of cardinals melting in second half to arizona st. ( see sun devils second halves at home last year ) and like the sun devils run defense matched up against the bruising back of stanford.... just enough to eliminate it. ohio i am worried that buckeyes play hareder than they normally would to prove they can do it without beanie. it is a question of want to here and the big edge for ohio is that usc is on deck. not sure about the anser so letting it go.

Added syracuse -4 and pittsburgh -13. have a feeling that at some point the cuse line hits 3.5 but as i have said ... i am leaving town and wont have time to check on it.

syracuse -- competitive i thought vs nw and i was impressed by their improved run game. That should work out well againt akron who struggled vs the run last week. back to back roadies for akron and i make syracuse the favorite on akrons field so find the line drop slightly puzzling. i have akron as bad as any team in their conference and will take my chances with the cuse here.

pittsburgh -- my eyes deceived me a little bit with the BG game. pitt actually dominated them a little bit and now instead of swelled heads you have an angry team facing a buffalo squad fresh off a victory. i like the spot and i like pitts chances of pounding the hell out of the ball. the line seems to indicate that buffalo is basically on par with Bg and i simply dont agree. throw in the difference in attitude that should be brought to the stadium and i like it even more. pittsburgh going away.....

agree w/ you on Pitt as i suffered through the loss last week, but i really look for BG to bring it against Minny.I have to disagree w/ your opinion on Syracuse and there improved ground game, my eyes saw a pathetic performence. If you eliminate 3 plays, there ypr was disgusting. i do like the stable of backs they have and the best of the bunch could be a FR who didnt see action, but the OL was still just awful even w/ the new OC. a rival coach while scouting the orange last year said it was the slowest and fattest he has seen, while they have collectively lost some pounds they still are a bad bunch.if they have any success at all it will be a reflection on Akron. GL w. your play!

 

[Houghton Chemical]

syracuse -- competitive i thought vs nw and i was impressed by their improved run game. That should work out well againt akron who struggled vs the run last week. back to back roadies for akron and i make syracuse the favorite on akrons field so find the line drop slightly puzzling. i have akron as bad as any team in their conference and will take my chances with the cuse here.


Vegas, I have Syracuse on my lean list too. I watched the Akron game and they were awful against the run, but they were pitted against one of the best o-lines in the country. Since my attention was focused on the Akron game I wasn't able to catch any of the Syracuse game. What I noticed most about Akron was that they were able to move the ball fairly well through the air. If Syracuse has problems with pass d, I think I might lay off. GL this week.

 

[RetroVK]

agree w/ you on Pitt as i suffered through the loss last week, but i really look for BG to bring it against Minny.I have to disagree w/ your opinion on Syracuse and there improved ground game, my eyes saw a pathetic performence. If you eliminate 3 plays, there ypr was disgusting. i do like the stable of backs they have and the best of the bunch could be a FR who didnt see action, but the OL was still just awful even w/ the new OC. a rival coach while scouting the orange last year said it was the slowest and fattest he has seen, while they have collectively lost some pounds they still are a bad bunch.if they have any success at all it will be a reflection on Akron. GL w. your play!

yup syracuse is bad. not going to get an argument there .. but they did run the ball half decent last week. Their pass defense did look vulnerable at times saturday ( this is one game where i really got to watch pretty much every play ) and they actually blew a couple of coverages .. but i think northwestern is a different offensive animal than akron. I don't need syracuse to be good or even average ,,,, just better than akron saturday. they gave up 225 through the air to nw in evanston.... no reason to think they cant hold akron to less than that at home. they averaged 63 yards a game on the ground so a 122 yard effort at over 4 ypc on the road vs a big ten school is a big upgrade to start the year. They had a few pretty large negative plays as well that reflect in the rushing stats . seems like a lot of the time i am stuck with bad football teams because they are usually the teams that are undervalued. will i be surprised if syracuse loses ? no , how could i be at this point. But i see this as a game very similar to the game they hosted buffalo last year and i managed to talk myself off of a clear winner in 2007. not gonna happen this time ... this time i am gonna talk myself on to a clear loser ..errr i mean .. winner.

 

[RetroVK]

I wanted to go into more depth about pittsburgh.

Here is the box score from last week.

<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left> </TD><TD>

</TD><TD>

</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>27</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>3rd down efficiency
</TD><TD>7-18</TD><TD>6-16</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>4th down efficiency
</TD><TD>1-1</TD><TD>3-4</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>254</TD><TD>393</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>190</TD><TD>264</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=right><TD align=left>Comp-Att
</TD><TD>26-42</TD><TD>29-51</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per pass
</TD><TD>4.5</TD><TD>5.2</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>64</TD><TD>129</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Rushing Attempts
</TD><TD>28</TD><TD>35</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Yards per rush
</TD><TD>2.3</TD><TD>3.7</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>7-54</TD><TD>2-10</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>4</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Fumbles lost
</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>3</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=right><TD align=left>Interceptions thrown
</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=right><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>26:52</TD><TD>33:08</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Since BGSU and bnuffalo are a very easy comparison in my eyes, as most conference foes are, i paid xtra attention to the box score from last saturday. Alright they lost the game because of fumbles. That is kind of a good thing. In my opinion a game riddled with fumbles is a more rare bird and less of a season long problem. In other words , it is a hard thing to replicate. If a team is having problems with interceptions sometimes that can just keep on going that way but rarely does that happen with fumbles. Pitt dominated the line on rush defense and bowling green was able to make some plays through the air with that offense. pitt punted only 4 times in the game and they didn't start a single drive in bgsu territory. mccoy called out the play calling as too conservative but they were pinned back a lot. Personally i have bgsu rated considerably higher than buffalo. Atleast i know buffalo scoring average against me will go down ,,, they average 42 a game against me the last two years. The only significant advantages that i see for the buffalo team are at head coach ( almost as much love for turner gil as disdain for the wanny ) and qb. The line of scrimmage should be panther controlled. The receivers are solid , rb is obviously an edge to pitt as well , thought the starks kid is pretty good in his own right just not heisman talk material. pitt is one of those teams that never does what people expect. when the bandwagon is full it falls over but when it gets empty it runs all over the plains. Everyone loved them preseason and they choked , now everyone is jumping ship and that is when you get value in a line and hop aboard. If not this game , which game for pitt ?

 

[Pucks]

Great write ups and great homework on all your play vegaskyle.

I don't think you or others lie about your posted lines on games. Keep up the great work. :shake:

 

[Inspekdah]

I think Pitt wins this big, it's their season... might add small. Good health on your plays.

 

[halfpoint]

I think Pitt stinks

This team squeaked by the Cuse last year. T

 

[RetroVK]

eliminated all the remaining leans....utah , temple , kentst and wvu

utah -- if i could have ever gotten 20.5 i would have played. have the over anyway.

temple --situationally i should be on this game. i dont like the matchup as much as i did earlier in the week. hard to let go.

wvu -- keep going back and forth on this game and it occurred to me ... i dont have to bet it. originally liked ecu , then after deep investigation kind of liked the other side. betting any game where you have almost bet either side is usually a bad thing.

kentst -- just doesn't quite make it for me. i needed a new angle to bet it, or some new info or a line move. i didnt get any of them.

That should do it. I won't be responding to any questions or posts until i return from my trip to el paso for the longhorns/miners game.

Think we had a decent thread this week though i think our discussion was better in my week one thread. Hope my rant didn't keep anyone from posting constructive stuff. I am honestly trying to get better at this by learning from everyone who visits CTG , which i believe has the best college football handicapping forum on the internet. I hope to share some of my angles with others as well and hope that combining our thoughts , analysis , angles and information makes us all better off in the pocketbook.

Best of luck to everyone this week.


final card should look like this,,,,,

locked in

northwestern -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
georgia tech +7.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
miami florida +21 ( cris ) added aug 31
central michigan +23 ( cris ) added aug 31
wyoming -3 ( cris ) added aug 31
california -11.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
w michigan -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
syracuse -4 ( cris ) added sept 3
pittsburgh -13 ( stations ) added sept 3

unlv/utah over 40 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )
cmich/georgia over 55 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )

twice as many favorites as dogs...... rarely a good recipe. it is what it is though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Have really looked into this Pitt game as well tonight an seen some really good thoughts on it. Gonan wait a day or two and look into it more.

Your right on about that ECU/WVU game. I actually lean ECU a bit now after intially leaning other way. Funny how it changes. Might as well leave it alone.

I picked Temple in my pickems and think they have a shot. Need another week of watching them though after that somewhat fortunate blowout last week.

Have a great weekend...real nice card rolling...should be a pretty good week me thinks.

 

[CapTwo]

thread an excellent read as usual, BOL this week

tailing you on NW....

you dont think the projected shitty weather is going to keep the score down in a couple of these games?

 

[RetroVK]

Well the good news for me is that i thought that i capped better this week than last week. unfortunately , i got crushed.

2-7 on sides -5.70 units
breaks down as 1-5 favorites , 1-2 dogs

losers were syracuse , nw , miamifl +21, wmich, wyo , cmich, and pitt.

wins were cal and georgia tech


my totals were 2-0 +1.00 units

wins were over unlv/utah and over cmich/georgia

my running totals look like this .......

full unit plays 4-11 -8.00 units
sides 4-10 -7.00 units
ml dogs 0-1 - 1.00 units

totals 5-0 +2.20 units
overs 3-0 +1.40 units
unders 2-0 +0.80 units
middles/traps/scalps/specs 1-1 + $170

futures
cincy over 6.5 wins , currently 1-1 next up is a bye week
purdue under 6.5 wins , currently 1-0 next up purdue hosts oregon


These numbes will be displayed in my first post of the week 3 "time to post" thread and i will also recap last weeks debacle.

unfortunately the .4 and .5 unit plays on totals hurts my net result pretty significantly as i have a 9-11 record all together. Hope anyone that might have been tailing has played them all for the same amount , and hope that no one has been tailing

bad weeks mean its time to roll up the sleeves and work all the harder.

On a side note ... I was involved in a discussion on this board about the value of price. Note that the miamifl price at +21 was a loser when i could have gotten a +23.5 or 24 later in the week and had a winner instead. While painful for me to point it out , i think it is best to point it out in my failing rather than a time when it works in my favor. price is important. It is a 2.1 unit difference to the results. hope any of you that played miami florida this week had a winning number.

 

[B.A.R.]

hope any of you that played miami florida this week had a winning number.

Still cannot blieve Urban was running that score up.