RetroVK
This claim is disputed
2008 record
full unit plays 2-4
sides 2-3 -1.30 units
moneyline dogs 0-1 -1.00 units
totals 3-0 + 1.20 units
middles /traps/specs/scalps/traps 1-1 +$170
Last week i went 2-3 on my side bets and 0-1 on my moneyline bets. I will talk about them in the order in which i felt i capped them from worst to best.
Idaho +28 loser--game was delayed for a long time and when they started only arizona played football. Total and complete domination. Idaho had 7 first downs and 5 turnovers. Arizona had 27 first downs. idaho had 112 yards of total offense and arizona had 521. The final score was 70-0. Safe to say I was on the wrong side of that game. i never actually got to watch a play of this one, thank heavens.
UTEP +135 loser--Buffalo had 221 yards receiving on 10 catches. 263 yards on the ground and outscored utep 28-3 the last 30 and a half minutes of the game. Buffalo stifled the miners rush game , holding them to 67 yards on 26 carries. Clearly on the wrong side of the game again. Very poorly capped. I never actually got watch a play of this game. like idaho , thankful for that.
Wyoming -9.5 loser -- Ohio QB scott was more impressive than i expected and he had a field day throwing to price repeatedly. price had 14 receptions for 139 yards and i believe he set a school record. ohio actually outgained wyoming in this game 287 yards to 271. Solich made some bad decisions which i believe cost ohio the outright victory and i thought they played the better overall game. The bright spot for wyoming was their ability to stop the run. They held ohio to 39 yards on 21 carries. I thought that would happen , i just did not think that Scott could get the job done and he proved me wrong in a big way. When you lay a big number like 9.5 you expect domination and that certainly was not the case for this game. The game closed upwards of two td so i can atleast feel good about the value.
Temple -4.5 winner --Finally get to talk about a winner. Unfortunately i am not sure that i had this game capped outexactly right. Benefited from some lucky plays and turnovers to make a close game look deceivingly like Temple dominated. They did not. Temple had a fumble return for td , a kickoff return for td , and a 8 yard td drive set up by turnover. Sort of the inverse of what happened in this game last year. Statistically , and from what i watched physically , the game was much closer. Army outgained temple 284 to 250. They had more first downs 17-16. they averaged 3.6 a carry compared to temples 2.8 a carry. Very iffy as to whether i would bet this again ... i still think it was the right side but not completely convinced.
hawaii + 35.5 loser --Feel very unfortunate to lose this bet. Hawaii was effective early moving the ball. Alexander had an open receiver at the tail end of a drive in first quarter for waht looked like a td but slightly overthrew the ball and florida got the interception for the touchback. Then late first quarter with florida driving , tebow was hit from behind while scrambling and fumbled the ball , it rolled right back into his arms. At the start of the second quarter florida ended that drive with a td. On the very next series of downs hawaii was intercepted for a td. After a hawaii fumble , florida three and out and hawaii three and out ,,,florida returned a punt 74 yards for a td ... a punt that was bouncing and originally going to be let go until it bounced perfect for the return man. On hawaiis next drive they had what looked to be an apparent incomplete pass that was ruled a completion and the guy who made the nice effort to try and catch it then proceeded to fumble. Hawaii did not challenge and florida started on the hawaii half of the field. Florida offense finally did something ...a 15 yard rush and then a 33 yard rush and they were in the end zone. At this point , quit began to settle in for hawaii. So hawaii probably played as well as i could have hoped for defensively in the first half but bad breaks , costly turnovers , a bad call , and a punt return for td put them behind the eightball. Being behind the 28 at half took a lot of heart out of the team. When all was said and done florida had just 406 yards of offense , and just 20 first downs. If you told me that before i made the bet it would obviosuly be an easy decision to bet hawaii.... but when all was said and done florida was +6 in turnovers , had a punt return for td and had a successful fake punt inside their own 30 yardline. the final score was 56 - 10 ... i lost the bet by 9.5 points .... feel very good about the position i took in this game. hawaii ended up with 241 yards of offense and 16 first downs. Clearly on the correct side of this bet.
TCU -5.5 winner --feel good about how i capped this one out. If you read my writeup it pretty much went as advertised. tcu dominated the line of scrimmage , especially defensively. UN was held to 56 yards rushing and just 9 first downs. just circle the lobo game for next year and lay the points with tcu. they own them. Two things to note about the game .. porterie the starting qb for unm went down either late first half or early third quarter , cant remember which. That made it difficult for lobos to have any chance of a second half comeback. both offenses were hindered by a strong wind in this game every other quarter. The kicking game of tcu is very suspect. they missed an extra point and a field goal from extra point distance.
So i feel pretty bad about how i capped for week one. I really think i only got what i expected in the hawaii game and the tcu game. the temple game was "eh". The idaho , utep and wyoming game were clearly miscapped. Not good that only 33% of the full unit plays were capped well.
I went 3-0 in my totals plays last week but unfortunately i play them for considerably less than a full unit this year due to losing money betting them last year. figures dont it ? lets take a look
Idaho/arizona over 63 winner-- I could easily record this in the specs section as i was sort of expecting the line to move up , inwhich case i would have played back on the under but i also liked it quite a bit as i thought idaho would score in the twenties. When the weather reports started surfacing midweek the line started to fall and i was stuck with an over in bad weather. the game was delayed for a good period of time before starting. went over that game already above so you know what happened. Luckily Arizona scored 70 ... this one won but for all the wrong reasons for why i liked it. only 34 first downs in a bet lined at 63. miserably capped game but i will take it as partial payback for the well capped florida loss.
ncstate/scarolina under 50 winner-- closed under 45 i think... so got great value again. Game was 3-0 at halftime so i knew this was in barring overtime at that point. most everyone probably watched that game so i will keep this short. 30 combined first downs in the game that was lined at 50 points. clearly well capped i think
northwestern/syracuse under 58 winner -- feel good about how i capped thsi game out as well. northwestern took some time to get into a rhythm early and the syracuse running game was improved. the first td of the game was scored with under 4 minutes to go in the first half when syracuse blew a coverage with two men guarding 3 receivers on the right defensive side of the play. northwestern fumbled the first play of the second half and cuse recovered inside the ten yard line and punched it in. There was a second half int for td in the game that made me start to sweat it a little but it was in pretty safely. Again just 36 first downs combined in a game lined at 58 points. clearly well capped i think
So there you have my week one recap and self evaluation. Not going to lie, i was a bit demoralized after saturday night after all the work i put in the entire offseason and for week1. But I am also confident that fundamentals of handicapping coupled with discipline will win the money.
locked in
northwestern -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
georgia tech +7.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
miami florida +21 ( cris ) added aug 31
central michigan +23 ( cris ) added aug 31
wyoming -3 ( cris ) added aug 31
california -11.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
w michigan -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
syracuse -4 ( cris ) added sept 3
pittsburgh -13 ( stations ) added sept 3
unlv/utah over 40 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )
cmich/georgia over 55 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )
strong leans
pittsburgh -12.5 ( added to plays sept 3 )
temple +7 ( eliminated sept 3 )
syracuse -5.5 ( added to plays sept 3 at -4 )
utah -21 ( eliminated sept 3 )
talk me off leans
kent st +7.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
michigan -13.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
Nevada +10.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
penn state -15 ( eliminated sept 3 )
stanford +14.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
ohio +34.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
wvu -7 ( eliminated sept 3 )
note i will be leaving town early thursday morning to el paso to catch my favorite team , the texas longhorns, as they face my alma mater , the utep miners. So apologize for not being around to discuss games much from thursday on.
full unit plays 2-4
sides 2-3 -1.30 units
moneyline dogs 0-1 -1.00 units
totals 3-0 + 1.20 units
middles /traps/specs/scalps/traps 1-1 +$170
Last week i went 2-3 on my side bets and 0-1 on my moneyline bets. I will talk about them in the order in which i felt i capped them from worst to best.
Idaho +28 loser--game was delayed for a long time and when they started only arizona played football. Total and complete domination. Idaho had 7 first downs and 5 turnovers. Arizona had 27 first downs. idaho had 112 yards of total offense and arizona had 521. The final score was 70-0. Safe to say I was on the wrong side of that game. i never actually got to watch a play of this one, thank heavens.
UTEP +135 loser--Buffalo had 221 yards receiving on 10 catches. 263 yards on the ground and outscored utep 28-3 the last 30 and a half minutes of the game. Buffalo stifled the miners rush game , holding them to 67 yards on 26 carries. Clearly on the wrong side of the game again. Very poorly capped. I never actually got watch a play of this game. like idaho , thankful for that.
Wyoming -9.5 loser -- Ohio QB scott was more impressive than i expected and he had a field day throwing to price repeatedly. price had 14 receptions for 139 yards and i believe he set a school record. ohio actually outgained wyoming in this game 287 yards to 271. Solich made some bad decisions which i believe cost ohio the outright victory and i thought they played the better overall game. The bright spot for wyoming was their ability to stop the run. They held ohio to 39 yards on 21 carries. I thought that would happen , i just did not think that Scott could get the job done and he proved me wrong in a big way. When you lay a big number like 9.5 you expect domination and that certainly was not the case for this game. The game closed upwards of two td so i can atleast feel good about the value.
Temple -4.5 winner --Finally get to talk about a winner. Unfortunately i am not sure that i had this game capped outexactly right. Benefited from some lucky plays and turnovers to make a close game look deceivingly like Temple dominated. They did not. Temple had a fumble return for td , a kickoff return for td , and a 8 yard td drive set up by turnover. Sort of the inverse of what happened in this game last year. Statistically , and from what i watched physically , the game was much closer. Army outgained temple 284 to 250. They had more first downs 17-16. they averaged 3.6 a carry compared to temples 2.8 a carry. Very iffy as to whether i would bet this again ... i still think it was the right side but not completely convinced.
hawaii + 35.5 loser --Feel very unfortunate to lose this bet. Hawaii was effective early moving the ball. Alexander had an open receiver at the tail end of a drive in first quarter for waht looked like a td but slightly overthrew the ball and florida got the interception for the touchback. Then late first quarter with florida driving , tebow was hit from behind while scrambling and fumbled the ball , it rolled right back into his arms. At the start of the second quarter florida ended that drive with a td. On the very next series of downs hawaii was intercepted for a td. After a hawaii fumble , florida three and out and hawaii three and out ,,,florida returned a punt 74 yards for a td ... a punt that was bouncing and originally going to be let go until it bounced perfect for the return man. On hawaiis next drive they had what looked to be an apparent incomplete pass that was ruled a completion and the guy who made the nice effort to try and catch it then proceeded to fumble. Hawaii did not challenge and florida started on the hawaii half of the field. Florida offense finally did something ...a 15 yard rush and then a 33 yard rush and they were in the end zone. At this point , quit began to settle in for hawaii. So hawaii probably played as well as i could have hoped for defensively in the first half but bad breaks , costly turnovers , a bad call , and a punt return for td put them behind the eightball. Being behind the 28 at half took a lot of heart out of the team. When all was said and done florida had just 406 yards of offense , and just 20 first downs. If you told me that before i made the bet it would obviosuly be an easy decision to bet hawaii.... but when all was said and done florida was +6 in turnovers , had a punt return for td and had a successful fake punt inside their own 30 yardline. the final score was 56 - 10 ... i lost the bet by 9.5 points .... feel very good about the position i took in this game. hawaii ended up with 241 yards of offense and 16 first downs. Clearly on the correct side of this bet.
TCU -5.5 winner --feel good about how i capped this one out. If you read my writeup it pretty much went as advertised. tcu dominated the line of scrimmage , especially defensively. UN was held to 56 yards rushing and just 9 first downs. just circle the lobo game for next year and lay the points with tcu. they own them. Two things to note about the game .. porterie the starting qb for unm went down either late first half or early third quarter , cant remember which. That made it difficult for lobos to have any chance of a second half comeback. both offenses were hindered by a strong wind in this game every other quarter. The kicking game of tcu is very suspect. they missed an extra point and a field goal from extra point distance.
So i feel pretty bad about how i capped for week one. I really think i only got what i expected in the hawaii game and the tcu game. the temple game was "eh". The idaho , utep and wyoming game were clearly miscapped. Not good that only 33% of the full unit plays were capped well.
I went 3-0 in my totals plays last week but unfortunately i play them for considerably less than a full unit this year due to losing money betting them last year. figures dont it ? lets take a look
Idaho/arizona over 63 winner-- I could easily record this in the specs section as i was sort of expecting the line to move up , inwhich case i would have played back on the under but i also liked it quite a bit as i thought idaho would score in the twenties. When the weather reports started surfacing midweek the line started to fall and i was stuck with an over in bad weather. the game was delayed for a good period of time before starting. went over that game already above so you know what happened. Luckily Arizona scored 70 ... this one won but for all the wrong reasons for why i liked it. only 34 first downs in a bet lined at 63. miserably capped game but i will take it as partial payback for the well capped florida loss.
ncstate/scarolina under 50 winner-- closed under 45 i think... so got great value again. Game was 3-0 at halftime so i knew this was in barring overtime at that point. most everyone probably watched that game so i will keep this short. 30 combined first downs in the game that was lined at 50 points. clearly well capped i think
northwestern/syracuse under 58 winner -- feel good about how i capped thsi game out as well. northwestern took some time to get into a rhythm early and the syracuse running game was improved. the first td of the game was scored with under 4 minutes to go in the first half when syracuse blew a coverage with two men guarding 3 receivers on the right defensive side of the play. northwestern fumbled the first play of the second half and cuse recovered inside the ten yard line and punched it in. There was a second half int for td in the game that made me start to sweat it a little but it was in pretty safely. Again just 36 first downs combined in a game lined at 58 points. clearly well capped i think
So there you have my week one recap and self evaluation. Not going to lie, i was a bit demoralized after saturday night after all the work i put in the entire offseason and for week1. But I am also confident that fundamentals of handicapping coupled with discipline will win the money.
locked in
northwestern -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
georgia tech +7.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
miami florida +21 ( cris ) added aug 31
central michigan +23 ( cris ) added aug 31
wyoming -3 ( cris ) added aug 31
california -11.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
w michigan -6.5 ( cris ) added aug 31
syracuse -4 ( cris ) added sept 3
pittsburgh -13 ( stations ) added sept 3
unlv/utah over 40 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )
cmich/georgia over 55 ( cris ) added sept 2 ( 0.55 units to win 0.50 units )
strong leans
pittsburgh -12.5 ( added to plays sept 3 )
temple +7 ( eliminated sept 3 )
syracuse -5.5 ( added to plays sept 3 at -4 )
utah -21 ( eliminated sept 3 )
talk me off leans
kent st +7.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
michigan -13.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
Nevada +10.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
penn state -15 ( eliminated sept 3 )
stanford +14.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
ohio +34.5 ( eliminated sept 3 )
wvu -7 ( eliminated sept 3 )
note i will be leaving town early thursday morning to el paso to catch my favorite team , the texas longhorns, as they face my alma mater , the utep miners. So apologize for not being around to discuss games much from thursday on.
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