2008 cfb -- time to post my championship week card so far

vegaskyle said:
Tipping my cap to the linesmakers this week.

None of these bets deserves my money unless a significant line move occurs.

good luck to the rest of you and lets win some money during the bowl season.
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You give in way to easily VK. 80% of the games have some sort of value . Somewhere , somehow , something is always off .....if not the lines then the perception..

What happened to Louisville ?? I could see -7 in this game but not more .

Dont like the Ville slide dropping 4 straight (thank Scott Long maybe) but RU wasnt all that good vs Army . 3 1st H FGs and a defensive score . Didntplay all that well vs Cuse so are they better as dogs without expectations ? Snuck up on Pitt and USF has just fallen to pieces...

Underwood never regained his 07 form minus 755 yds from last year..

Thoughts ?



 
Kyle what is keeping you off of Army?

Would be interested in concerns to worry about
 
kyle,

you are a smart man...as you know, if you don't see a play it's best not to force it...
 
SportsNut said:
You give in way to easily VK. 80% of the games have some sort of value . Somewhere , somehow , something is always off .....if not the lines then the perception..

What happened to Louisville ?? I could see -7 in this game but not more .

Dont like the Ville slide dropping 4 straight (thank Scott Long maybe) but RU wasnt all that good vs Army . 3 1st H FGs and a defensive score . Didntplay all that well vs Cuse so are they better as dogs without expectations ? Snuck up on Pitt and USF has just fallen to pieces...

Underwood never regained his 07 form minus 755 yds from last year..

Thoughts ?
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Lost what little line value i thought was there in this game. Louisville is simply an atrocious team on the road this year. Two teams heading in opposite directions and after looking at the matchup more i didnt like the strength to weakness comparisons. Ville strength offensively is power run and rutgers has been holding teams to under 4 yards per carry this year ( )while facing some of the best rushing attacks in the country. rushing averages for teams that rutgers has faced ...

fresno st 4.8 178 ( rank 35 ) matthews
north carolina 3.6 125 ( rank 86 )
navy 5.27 292 ( rank 1st ) option
west virginia 5.67 224 ( rank 11th ) white and devine
cincy 4.17 119 (rank 95th )
uconn 4.8 203 ( rank 20th ) brown
pitt 3.9 148 ( rank 58th ) mccoy
cuse 4.55 149 ( rank 57th )
usf 4.06 150 ( rank 52nd )
army 4.7 254 ( rank 9th ) option

That is a brutal stretch of games defending the run and they have done it incredibly well. The ville does have some balance offensively and can exploit some things int he rutgers secondary but everytime the cards do a lot of that they eventually give up a big negative play.

On the flip side , Rutgers loves to throw the ball to its talented receivers with an ok teel at qb ... going for roughly 250 yards a game. That is louisvilles weakness giving up 220 yards a game through the air.

Louisville on the road has been terrible.

AT memphis ( a bad football team i might add ) they win by 7 .. i avtually held a ville -6.5 ticket that night and it was BY FAR my luckiest win of the last two years and maybe longer. They were dominated.

AT syracuse i again held a lousiville ticket expecting a nice revenge situation but completely miscapped the game and this was right when syracuse started turning that corner to playing better football ( honestly think they should reconsider robinson for the job he did this year as a lame duck but that is for a different post ). Cuse outplayed the ville and won outright by 7.

AT pitt -- i stayed away even though i like the ville there because of previous road games and they played their best road game but self destructed in the fourth qtr with turnovers and lost 41 - 7 .. deceiving score but still.

This game marks their fourth road game of the entire year and it is a thursday night game in piscataway ( gl with officiating ).

Schiano vs kragthorpe.



Those were the reasons that i laid off of this game at this number. They are also primarily the reasons that the line is this high.

Do i think louisville is the better side ... YES. But not enough for me to bet it .. included the above to give reasons why i am getting away.
 
O-State said:
Kyle what is keeping you off of Army?

Would be interested in concerns to worry about
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Not going to lie. This was my A-plus list game when lvsc released numbers this week. I was ready to bet them at the 14.5 .... but that isn't what we actually got from the books so i hesitated. Now sits 11 and i just want slightly more is what it comes down to.

What i liked in this game was the rush defense angle for army and the fact that we get a motivated dd dog for the game. Army knows the assignments for defending the option obviously and their run defense has been good. I like the fact both teams run almost every play and therefore the clock will be running the entire game .. less possessions , less plays , less scoring chances... tick tock tick tock.

Ok i mentioned the line not being what i had hoped and while part of me thinks that is the books begging for navy money ... they did get their wish and it went up to 11.

Here are the things that make me a tad scared .. keep in mind if i could only make one play this week and was forced to do it .. it would be army.... but here is why i am not going to do it.

Statistically the army rush defense is slightly better than the navy rush defense but once you account for strength of schedule you see why. Army has played one of , if not the easiest schedule in football though they played very few actual home games.

Vs common opponents navy is 3-0 and army is 0-3

now it needs to be said that army played a better game in defeat to air force than navy played in victory and the navy victory over temple was a big fluke.

Army has been playing worse down the stretch ... it won't make for a quit .. this is their biggest game EVERY year so motivation is not a concern for either team. so no quit for army and no look past for navy.... but army's level of play was a concern.

I also think navy has an advantage with fg kicking and a HUGE edge in the punting games with army having one of the worst punting units in the neation and navy being one of the more prolific punt returning teams.

Again i feel a lot of the points i am making here for navy are reflected in the line and as i said , ,,,, army is the best play on the whole board.... just not quite enough for me this week..... but certainly don't fault anyone from liking it.
 
Great stuff VK. I was only breaking your chops about the giving up to easy . Appreciate the info and response .

Here's somethings I thought about and in general I agree with what you said . Not really disagreeing with anything .

I think what happened a month ago was after RU came in with high expectations to start the season they didnt real play much better rather just got a few more breaks . They had a nice stretch where they faced nothing but backup QB's . They played @ WVU Pat White played half a game , they played at Cincy and they get Chazz Anderson not even Tony Pike , they host UConn its Frazier , they play @ Pitt Stull gets knocked out after a Pitt fumble gave RU a short field which they scored to make a 34-31 game 41-31 , and so on and so forth. At home nothing really impressive took place so what home field edge do they have ? They played solid on the road but at home Fresno and UNC beat them early , beat UConn barely , Cuse didnt do much but led 14-0 after the 1st Quarter , Army like I said 3 FGs and defensive TD in the 1st H. Nix in Morgan State , overrated Fresno team wuth the teams mentioned and the backup QBs not sure exactly what the RU defense is made of . UNC did some things vs it when it was healthy , Pitt did as well but who else did they really play ? USF and Grothe moved the ball but turnovers .

Louisville really hasnt done a damn thing good all year . Again though they were only really dogged @ Pitt . Memphis -5.5 pt favs and Cuse -11 favs . So a team who isnt even playing good expected to not only win but do so in a somewhat favorable manner . They lost at home to Cincy and WVU really due to the 2nd Half certainly not bad losses to 2 of th ebetter teams in the BE if not the 2 best . Really played equal with both teams biut the opponent executed better.

Pitt was a real rough spot as Lville again came off an embarrassing loss to Cuse a team who has had their number . Pitt meanwhile was off the crazy win @ ND which fave them tons of momentum coming back home IMO especially since the RU game was their last at home . Plus the last 14 points came late in the game on turnovers for scores and Pitt scored 21 to blow open a 20-7 game . To me Pitt was Pitt that game and the RU game was just one of those things ..

RU was the opposite of Ville catching teams in good spots . They snuck up on Pitt after they stole that 12-10 win vs UConn at home(even HC said expected a 17-10 game) , then they host CUSE after the Orange had pulled off the SU upset of Louisville the week before , they play @ USF who had unraveled and sort of put the xclamation on that collpase but Ville had beaten them already a few weeks prior as a home pup .

Close games past 2 years bewteen the two.

Like How Uof L ran the ball vs WVU . Also like how finally the Ville plays a game with a team of basically equally level of play and isnt overvalued . RU was just -14 vs Cuse but the prior week Ville was -11 @ Cuse . I would give RU the benefit of teh doubt with the win streak and make -3 on a neutral field and possibly -7 at home but -10 no way ....

Ville needs a win to become bowl eligible and they have had a week off to stop their slide . It's RU senior day and 6-5 team only but its also Cantwell's last game .

Motivation high on both sides for the postseason and as good as RU is versus the run from a stats standpoint what LVille did vs WVU is impressive since WVU has also been good vs the run.

Also U of L has changed FG kcikcers again which could be huge because misses have killed this team. They have started off IMO as a 1st H teams who tends to fade. Th offense played really well in terms of moving the ball vs WVU. They punted just twice and once was at the WVY 35 yd line . After the 1st Q they had 8 touches with 2 TDs and 6 turnovers . The 1st Q was a missed FG , punt , TD and punt from WVUs 35 .

Was thinking UNDER but definetly like the over knowing U of L a tad shorthaded in the secondary and Ville piling up the yards.

Leaning now -
Louisville at 10 or better this is definetly a play just matter of how much.
Louisville 1st Q and 1st H
OVER 51?? :cheers:



 
VK I am kicking myself for not taking ECU earlier this week. Shit. I hear you bro. Sometimes there is no value.If you don't need it then don't buy it. Infact there hasn't been much value lately. Yeah we can get lucky and hit some but then we are gambling and not capping games.
 
good stuff nut ... agree with most everything but want ot make a fe points from your post.

I also had a ville ticket against wvu ( so i have been involved in betting them quite a bit to my demise i might add ) and watched that game and had they not insisted on throwing the ball once they penetrated the neers 40 yardline they could have won that game but kragthorpe is a walking lobotomy. One of the main reasons that i bring that up is because i played the cards because i expected their power run to succeed against wvu. My point in regards to this game is that wvu stats were skewed because of bad rush competition where as rutgers rush defense stats were compiled against a whos who of rushing attacks east of the mississippi. ecu , col , marshall , auburn and villanova ........ in other words the ville should find running the ball much more difficult here than they did vs wvu ... though the passing game should probably be slightly more effective.

the fg kickign can only get better but damn ... that was and is a major concern for anyone considering a bet on louisville .... and btw it also points out what a dumbass kragthorpe is for not continuing to run when getting close to the scoring zone ..... going for it on fourth down near the thirty yardline is a likelihood for that team so why not run and get manageable third and foruth down. Guy is a TERRIBLE gameday decision maker. The fading inthe second half also points to his lack of ability to make adjustments at halftime as well.

I do admit that there may be a slight bias on my part against pulling the trigger again on louisville since they ahve lsot me money this year just as i have similar problems pulling the trigger on alabama because i lose every time i bet against florida on an inflated line.

gl with your bets nut .. cant say i dont like them because i kind of do.
 
nawlins51 said:
VK I am kicking myself for not taking ECU earlier this week. Shit. I hear you bro. Sometimes there is no value.If you don't need it then don't buy it. Infact there hasn't been much value lately. Yeah we can get lucky and hit some but then we are gambling and not capping games.
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there should be some value in the bowl games but linesmakers just did a good job this week imo ..... there are other games on other days .... we are in it for the money ... no need to push games.
 
VK, I have not heard so much one-sided action in a while. It seems everyone in SEC I talk to thinks this is going to be a blowout with Fla over Bama. I am tempted to book their action but I'm not because Fla seems to be one of those teams the public is right on. After all, they are 9-2 ATS so the books sure as hell don't have a feel on them. Oh well... I didn't bet CFB last weekend, and I'm not betting it again this weekend. I don't like this time of season in football, plus I have CBB to occupy my time ;)
 
Kyle appreciate the thoughts and agree with everything you said. ---Personally I will be playing Army as well as some other games this week. I don't want to put myself in your position but it looks like the time of year for you is one to take caution on -- I think you play this game a couple weeks ago?

Also agree on Louisville-Rutgers.

Ville's run game has been overlooked all year but with Cantwell throwing they are a one dimensional team. Rutger's has the ability to limit the Ville run game.

On the other hand the Rutger's offense is a very spread out dynamic look. Teel has been money lately and I can't trust Ville against him as you pointed out pass D is their weakness and I wonder how some of the Rutger's draws and screens Schiano likes will work after he passes and spreads out the Ville D. When English has no answer he usually just says screw it and blitzes

If this game is at Papa Johns I would have no lean different home/away team is VIlle.

---Something can be said for momentum and two teams going in opposite directions. I am reading on Ville boards that Kragthorpe is done after this game. The Syracuse game is the one Ville needs to look back on----that started this string of losses.

Rutgers has been blowing people out as of late. The offense is clicking. Also have to consider if they get a lead look at Louisville they will have to abandon the run and rely on Cantwell the cement block he'll throw some picks.

----You cannot compare UConn game or Cincinnati game or any other game regarding Rutger's from the first half of the season. This team transformed as much as any I have ever seen. Chemsitry, timing, something.

---This offense is very much timing----if it's not clicking it can look like shit.

Rutger's is in a grroove lot's of talk tonight will be about how bad they looked last time espn TH night was their, and maybe how good they look tonight

Rutger's is almost like Oklahoma, Florida right now tough to get in their way
 
Blue_Chip said:
VK, I have not heard so much one-sided action in a while. It seems everyone in SEC I talk to thinks this is going to be a blowout with Fla over Bama. I am tempted to book their action but I'm not because Fla seems to be one of those teams the public is right on. After all, they are 9-2 ATS so the books sure as hell don't have a feel on them. Oh well... I didn't bet CFB last weekend, and I'm not betting it again this weekend. I don't like this time of season in football, plus I have CBB to occupy my time ;)
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Florida just turned on a light switch after a slow start and are clicking on all cylinders. Those early games where hawaii and miami florida should have covered but florida did instead skewed the overall ATS. I agree with you ... public has been right about florida. I had a terrible year going all the way back to the offseason with overrating sec teams but ironically had florida as a team that i considered overrated going into the year ... so safe to say that i had a hard time evaluating that league this year. had florida slightly wrong , lsu way off , vols way off , auburn way way off despite your warnings to me in the offseason , vanderbilt off , georgia off , aouth carolina off ..... almost all of the teams were lesser than what i expected which means i might have bought into the sec hype machine a little bit.
 
O-State said:
Kyle appreciate the thoughts and agree with everything you said. ---Personally I will be playing Army as well as some other games this week. I don't want to put myself in your position but it looks like the time of year for you is one to take caution on -- I think you play this game a couple weeks ago?

Also agree on Louisville-Rutgers.

Ville's run game has been overlooked all year but with Cantwell throwing they are a one dimensional team. Rutger's has the ability to limit the Ville run game.

On the other hand the Rutger's offense is a very spread out dynamic look. Teel has been money lately and I can't trust Ville against him as you pointed out pass D is their weakness and I wonder how some of the Rutger's draws and screens Schiano likes will work after he passes and spreads out the Ville D. When English has no answer he usually just says screw it and blitzes

If this game is at Papa Johns I would have no lean different home/away team is VIlle.

---Something can be said for momentum and two teams going in opposite directions. I am reading on Ville boards that Kragthorpe is done after this game. The Syracuse game is the one Ville needs to look back on----that started this string of losses.

Rutgers has been blowing people out as of late. The offense is clicking. Also have to consider if they get a lead look at Louisville they will have to abandon the run and rely on Cantwell the cement block he'll throw some picks.

----You cannot compare UConn game or Cincinnati game or any other game regarding Rutger's from the first half of the season. This team transformed as much as any I have ever seen. Chemsitry, timing, something.

---This offense is very much timing----if it's not clicking it can look like shit.

Rutger's is in a grroove lot's of talk tonight will be about how bad they looked last time espn TH night was their, and maybe how good they look tonight

Rutger's is almost like Oklahoma, Florida right now tough to get in their way
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cement block .... that might be the most accurate descri[ption i have seen of cantwell .. ....

Still think the line is a tad high as i said ... just not high enough to bet.

As far as playing the army game a couple weeks ago it depends on how you are asking that question.

--Had this been the line a few weeks ago with the same available information then ....no i wouldn't bet it .... i come from the school of a bet wither has the necessary EV to make it or it doesn't.

--If you mean prior to the last few weeks of football had this game come on the schedule earlier would i have bet it at this number .. probably yes .. because it is almost qualified as a bet now with Army having faded down the stretch.

so depends what you mean ... but if i am interpreting correctly the answer is no..... because it is either a good bet or it isn't and i could care less of the date of the event.
 
Statistically the army rush defense is slightly better than the navy rush defense but once you account for strength of schedule you see why. Army has played one of , if not the easiest schedule in football though they played very few actual home games.

Vs common opponents navy is 3-0 and army is 0-3

now it needs to be said that army played a better game in defeat to air force than navy played in victory and the navy victory over temple was a big fluke.

Army has been playing worse down the stretch ... it won't make for a quit .. this is their biggest game EVERY year so motivation is not a concern for either team. so no quit for army and no look past for navy.... but army's level of play was a concern.

I also think navy has an advantage with fg kicking and a HUGE edge in the punting games with army having one of the worst punting units in the neation and navy being one of the more prolific punt returning teams.

I think in a game like this special teams will be huge and that's the best point of all.

---Strength of schedule was different but it is just excess keeping us from seeing how identical these two teams are

NAVY
Duke 207-79 rush 150-317 pass
Rutgers 272-206, 89-131
Wake 292-43, 51-270 Skinner 4 interceptions
Air Force 206-227, 38-184
Pitt 57-255 pass
Temple 293-69. 106-340

ARMY
Temple 210-84, 74-166----kickoff and fumble return for Temple,
Akron 63-204 pass
Tamu 280-133, 4-157
Tulane 291-156, 43-330 +4 turnovers Army
Buffalo 320-41, 52-279
Air Force 143-142, 107-32 Armny -2 turnovers
Rice 461-133, 31-384
Rutgers 217-162, 2-359

These teams are identical. They stop the rush and rush the ball with about the same proficiency and defend the pass with the same ugly proficiency.

--YOu can toss the Rutgers game out the window except for the fact it compares Navy and Army favorably. Rutgers plays Navy now it's a 359-2 pass advantage which is the difference in the game because 217-162---272-206 that's almost the same ratio of run.

Temple was the First game of season for Army, meaning first time testing new option implemented this season, and Temple had defensive, special teams TD's.

293-69 rush Navy and 210-84 rush Army. Again pretty even rush ratio's but do give edge to Navy here

AIR FORCE
206-227 rush edge AF, 143-142 rush edge Army

Again pretty even rush ratio's here give Army this time

THIS IS WHAT MATTERS IMO. Rush comparisons with common opponents. Air Force game priority numo uno because it's the same attack. AF in final minutes I think had a TD to cover and Navy had a few blocked punts FWIW

I'm not seeing a difference

---Wake, Duke, PITT, ND I don't think deserves any merit in favor of Navy because if Army played these teams the result would be identical IMO. What do we see, Pitt dominated Navy, Duke it was run vs. pass, Wake it was run vs. pass again but Navy got tremendous breaks to win it. That is what we see these teams need breaks when so one dimensional
I point to Tulane for Army. Won the game 44-13 but not as much stat wise but benefited +4 turnovers. The Buffalo win for Army was a solid opponent.

----These teams have probably identical talent. Now Army has gone to the option.

The one criteria I give credence to strength of schedule is why Army is listed as having a better rush defense---they didn't play as good rush offense. So rush defenses pretty same, maybe give Navy slight edge rush offense

I do see ONE DIFFERENCE HERE

----passing offense for Army is 119 and passing efficiency is 119. Navy is 118 passing offense and 23 passing efficiency

---The KEY could be this little guy Navy plays at qb but doesn't pitch on the option, Ricky Dobbs, someone just had analysis of how he isn't as effective running but is a playmaker passing

IMO kioueegfahgoiajkejflakj should play Dobbs at qb and pass the rock Navy has an edge in

passing efficiency and special teams


ALSO Navy TO margin they are 5th nationally, Army is 114

----11 points??? If NAVY wins turnovers, has a few big plays in passing game, that could be the difference and if it's a close game Navy up by 7 and then it doesn't take much for Navy to get another TD and cover. But that's why it's gambling

------WHat does give Army backers confidence is that AIR FORCE is similar to Navy in special teams, turnover margin, passing efficiency,

has all the same advantages and Amry played them to a draw

----perhaps early season had something to do with TO margin for Army and take away Wake game Navy turnovers

Punting will be BIG
 
--If you mean prior to the last few weeks of football had this game come on the schedule earlier would i have bet it at this number .. probably yes .. because it is almost qualified as a bet now with Army having faded down the stretch.

I'm trying to see how Army faded down the stretch, Air Force, Rice, Rutgers?

The AF game they played them basically even and Rutgers is a throwout game in my book

Rice is a bowl team it was just contrasting style Army had like 400 some rush yards to rice's 400 pass yards close game last possession like you'd expect

Rice game does not apply to Navy game IMO

EDIT----I think one thing that does apply is how Army finds ways to blow games while Navy finds ways to win games
 
O-State said:
Statistically the army rush defense is slightly better than the navy rush defense but once you account for strength of schedule you see why. Army has played one of , if not the easiest schedule in football though they played very few actual home games.

Vs common opponents navy is 3-0 and army is 0-3

now it needs to be said that army played a better game in defeat to air force than navy played in victory and the navy victory over temple was a big fluke.

Army has been playing worse down the stretch ... it won't make for a quit .. this is their biggest game EVERY year so motivation is not a concern for either team. so no quit for army and no look past for navy.... but army's level of play was a concern.

I also think navy has an advantage with fg kicking and a HUGE edge in the punting games with army having one of the worst punting units in the neation and navy being one of the more prolific punt returning teams.

I think in a game like this special teams will be huge and that's the best point of all.

---Strength of schedule was different but it is just excess keeping us from seeing how identical these two teams are

NAVY
Duke 207-79 rush 150-317 pass
Rutgers 272-206, 89-131
Wake 292-43, 51-270 Skinner 4 interceptions
Air Force 206-227, 38-184
Pitt 57-255 pass
Temple 293-69. 106-340

ARMY
Temple 210-84, 74-166----kickoff and fumble return for Temple,
Akron 63-204 pass
Tamu 280-133, 4-157
Tulane 291-156, 43-330 +4 turnovers Army
Buffalo 320-41, 52-279
Air Force 143-142, 107-32 Armny -2 turnovers
Rice 461-133, 31-384
Rutgers 217-162, 2-359

These teams are identical. They stop the rush and rush the ball with about the same proficiency and defend the pass with the same ugly proficiency.

--YOu can toss the Rutgers game out the window except for the fact it compares Navy and Army favorably. Rutgers plays Navy now it's a 359-2 pass advantage which is the difference in the game because 217-162---272-206 that's almost the same ratio of run.

Temple was the First game of season for Army, meaning first time testing new option implemented this season, and Temple had defensive, special teams TD's.

293-69 rush Navy and 210-84 rush Army. Again pretty even rush ratio's but do give edge to Navy here

AIR FORCE
206-227 rush edge AF, 143-142 rush edge Army

Again pretty even rush ratio's here give Army this time

THIS IS WHAT MATTERS IMO. Rush comparisons with common opponents. Air Force game priority numo uno because it's the same attack. AF in final minutes I think had a TD to cover and Navy had a few blocked punts FWIW

I'm not seeing a difference

---Wake, Duke, PITT, ND I don't think deserves any merit in favor of Navy because if Army played these teams the result would be identical IMO. What do we see, Pitt dominated Navy, Duke it was run vs. pass, Wake it was run vs. pass again but Navy got tremendous breaks to win it.
I point to Tulane for Army. Won the game 44-13 but not as much stat wise but benefited +4 turnovers. The Buffalo win for Army was a solid opponent.

----These teams have probably identical talent. Now Army has gone to the option.

The one criteria I give credence to strength of schedule is why Army is listed as having a better rush defense---they didn't play as good rush offense. So rush defenses pretty same, maybe give Navy slight edge rush offense

I do see ONE DIFFERENCE HERE

----passing offense for Army is 119 and passing efficiency is 119. Navy is 118 passing offense and 23 passing efficiency

---The KEY could be this little guy Navy plays at qb but doesn't pitch on the option, Ricky Dobbs, someone just had analysis of how he isn't as effective running but is a playmaker passing

IMO kioueegfahgoiajkejflakj should play Dobbs at qb and pass the rock Navy has an edge in

passing efficiency and special teams


ALSO Navy TO margin they are 5th nationally, Army is 114

----11 points??? If NAVY wins turnovers, has a few big plays in passing game, that could be the difference and if it's a close game Navy up by 7 and then it doesn't take much for Navy to get another TD and cover. But that's why it's gambling

------WHat does give Army backers confidence is that AIR FORCE is similar to Navy in special teams, turnover margin, passing efficiency,

has all the same advantages and Amry played them to a draw

----perhaps early season had something to do with TO margin for Army and take away Wake game Navy turnovers

Punting will be BIG
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You are a beast .. and seeing the game very similarly to me. like i said .. can't fault anyone for betting army in this game. might break this post down in better detail later ( amybe something in there that i havent given enough weight ... maybe i can play army hehe ) but capping my college hoops rght now so it will be awhile.

great post , ostate
 
O-State said:
--If you mean prior to the last few weeks of football had this game come on the schedule earlier would i have bet it at this number .. probably yes .. because it is almost qualified as a bet now with Army having faded down the stretch.

I'm trying to see how Army faded down the stretch, Air Force, Rice, Rutgers?

The AF game they played them basically even and Rutgers is a throwout game in my book

Rice is a bowl team it was just contrasting style Army had like 400 some rush yards to rice's 400 pass yards close game last possession like you'd expect

Rice game does not apply to Navy game IMO

EDIT----I think one thing that does apply is how Army finds ways to blow games while Navy finds ways to win games
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i include the latech game even in victory as a poot performance....

agree the rice game does not qualify for comparison purposes since they pass every down and navy runs every down.

I agree that army finds ways to lose and navy finds ways to win ... but that could happen and army still cover anyway.... so not that big of a concern.

Navy is clearly over rated and has been all season long. Most fortunate team this year maybe in all of cfb. Nothing comparative to the luck uconn had last year in what was the luckiest season i can EVER remember.... ut they ahve been very fortunate in games like rutgers , temple , air force etc etc.
 
vegaskyle said:
good stuff nut ... agree with most everything but want ot make a fe points from your post.

I also had a ville ticket against wvu ( so i have been involved in betting them quite a bit to my demise i might add ) and watched that game and had they not insisted on throwing the ball once they penetrated the neers 40 yardline they could have won that game but kragthorpe is a walking lobotomy. One of the main reasons that i bring that up is because i played the cards because i expected their power run to succeed against wvu. My point in regards to this game is that wvu stats were skewed because of bad rush competition where as rutgers rush defense stats were compiled against a whos who of rushing attacks east of the mississippi. ecu , col , marshall , auburn and villanova ........ in other words the ville should find running the ball much more difficult here than they did vs wvu ... though the passing game should probably be slightly more effective.

the fg kickign can only get better but damn ... that was and is a major concern for anyone considering a bet on louisville .... and btw it also points out what a dumbass kragthorpe is for not continuing to run when getting close to the scoring zone ..... going for it on fourth down near the thirty yardline is a likelihood for that team so why not run and get manageable third and foruth down. Guy is a TERRIBLE gameday decision maker. The fading inthe second half also points to his lack of ability to make adjustments at halftime as well.

I do admit that there may be a slight bias on my part against pulling the trigger again on louisville since they ahve lsot me money this year just as i have similar problems pulling the trigger on alabama because i lose every time i bet against florida on an inflated line.

gl with your bets nut .. cant say i dont like them because i kind of do.
Click to expand...


Good point about WVU. I think RU falls into the same thinking on some level though( ctach a break when White leaves as WVU offense doesnt do much last 19 minutes of the game w/o him). I say that because they have done well vs some of the better rushing teams( also have faced Navy previously so easier to prepare IMO) but they also had a good stretch where they faced teams playing 2nd or 3rd string QB's which is going to effectively hurt the running game just by the lack of presence of the #1 starting QB . It's just been a tad easier for them to stop the run IMO and their schedule is really week when we factor in all the backup QB's they faced .

I agree about Kragthorpe since day 1 at Louisville the guy has been a poor in game head coach IMO. Funny thing is when I typed the previous sentence only read the 1st sentence you posted then went back and you said exactly what I thought down to the last word.

I know what you mean about feeling like you never get a certain team right and Louisville has been pretty tough to figure out. I dont recall if I touched the last game I know I leaned WVU so it was either them or pass but RU has been a tad tougher to figure for me past few weeks . I did fade them @ USF but had them @ Pitt and vs Uconn . Louisville I think I have been okay on I know I faded them @ Cuse big , took them at home vs USF and faded them at home vs USF . We both had that gift wrapped Memphis win . I did lose them with UConn but had them vs Kansas State . All in all I think they have treated me fairly well so far . Guess I was suprised how well they played at times vs WVU .

Pretty shit weather here now as well . Oh the kicking game will be interesting even this RU kicker doesnt have my full confidence despite some improvement .

I just feel these teams are very close to equal with the difference being lately RU is making the plays and winning and the opposite for the Louisville.

Playing Louisville either Level 2 or Level 3 for me (+11.5 , +12, +12.5 around at some places). Might look at the 1st H as well ....

The total has climbed out of my comfort range for two offenses who canleave alot of points OTB .

Strange injury ?
RU long snapper is questionable....Jeremy Branch ...

Ville's secondary is clearly thin but the guy to worry about is Kenny Britt . Underwood hasnt done much all year so not going to focus on him hopefully ...

Thanks again VK . I simply stick to betting lines that I confidently feel are off and dont worry as much about how the game plays out . When I can dot all the i's and cross all the t's I do but so many teams are hard to figure out in that manner IMO .

:shake::cheers:



 
vegaskyle said:
i include the latech game even in victory as a poot performance....

agree the rice game does not qualify for comparison purposes since they pass every down and navy runs every down.

I agree that army finds ways to lose and navy finds ways to win ... but that could happen and army still cover anyway.... so not that big of a concern.

Navy is clearly over rated and has been all season long. Most fortunate team this year maybe in all of cfb. Nothing comparative to the luck uconn had last year in what was the luckiest season i can EVER remember.... ut they ahve been very fortunate in games like rutgers , temple , air force etc etc.
Click to expand...


I think the point with Navy is they find ways to win but as UNDERDOGS. Which they are not here and which IMO makes it sort of not applicable IMO. Look at the Temple game they pulled it out but they didnt cover the -8 spread . Its hard to trail in the 4th quarter and cover -11 points .

Navy could very well not play well and find a way to win and it would make sense. Army is finding ways to lose at times but again as dogs so its vs superior teams just like Navy is in theory and by the fact they are 11 pt favs.

I really think its a huge factor seeing the Navy QB play in his 1st Armed Forces rivalry game . Whatever concerns people had before NIU should really still be there IMO especially since Army is much weaker then NIU ...:cheers:
 
vegaskyle said:
Pretty shit weather here now as well


how shitty exactly ???
Click to expand...

It started to rain pretty hard about an 60-90 minutes ago but has in the last few minutes all but stopped . Wasnt that cold(mid to high 40's then felt around 40 when the rain started) before the rain but the temp dropped some. Would guess there is some wind as well but nothing crazy . SI shows this ........


<TABLE class=dataTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=taC>6:00 pm </TD><TD class=taC>7:00 pm </TD><TD class=taC>8:00 pm </TD><TD class=taC>9:00 pm </TD><TD class=taC>10:00 pm </TD><TD class=taC>11:00 pm </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Wind:</TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_West.gif

6 mph West </TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_WNW.gif

5 mph WNW </TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_WNW.gif

5 mph WNW </TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_WNW.gif

6 mph WNW </TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_NW.gif

6 mph NW </TD><TD class=taC>
44x44_NW.gif

6 mph NW </TD></TR><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Condition:</TD><TD class=taC>
chancerain.gif

Chance of Rain </TD><TD class=taC>
chancerain.gif

Chance of Rain </TD><TD class=taC>
chancerain.gif

Chance of Rain </TD><TD class=taC>
chancerain.gif

Chance of Rain </TD><TD class=taC>
chancesnow.gif

Chance of Snow </TD><TD class=taC>
chancesnow.gif

Chance of Snow </TD></TR><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Temperature:</TD><TD class=taC>44 ° </TD><TD class=taC>43 ° </TD><TD class=taC>41 ° </TD><TD class=taC>40 ° </TD><TD class=taC>38 ° </TD><TD class=taC>37 ° </TD></TR><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Humidity:</TD><TD class=taC>58 % </TD><TD class=taC>62 % </TD><TD class=taC>65 % </TD><TD class=taC>67 % </TD><TD class=taC>70 % </TD><TD class=taC>71 % </TD></TR><TR class=vaM><TD class="taR b">Chance of Rain:</TD><TD class=taC>51 % </TD><TD class=taC>51 % </TD><TD class=taC>51 % </TD><TD class=taC>51 % </TD><TD class=taC>30 % </TD><TD class=taC>30 %</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


I am about a half hour away from the Stadium ..says 42 degrees with light rain and wind 5 to 10 MPH in that area...:shake:
 
vegaskyle said:
^^^ gracias .. has to help the ville side i would think
Click to expand...

No prob. It was shitty when I walked in but by the time I responded to the rain had stopped basically .

As for the game other then RU being HOT and looking to improve its Bowl situation I am not real concerned to be honest . Line is way off and getting worse . If I have misread the matchup then so be it but just think these teams are just comparable in terms of overall strength and play to have such a huge line. The Cards only dogged at Pitt by 6 and that was after RU beat the Panthers as 9 pt dogs SU. Which only reiterates IMO whay I feel about the teams being very close to equal and both have motivation edges . Plus it has become a rivalry of sorts after the past 2 years and 2 QBs playing their last game ....

Rollin the dice......:cheers:Thanks for all your help .:shake:

 
Played :

1st Score of Game - Louisville +150 Prop

Teaser: Louisville +18 / Under 60

Game plays :
Louisville +12 -110{Level2}Nearly went max play
1st Half +7 -115 {Level1}
1st Quarter +3 -110 {Level1}

Good Luck :cheers:
 
Down 21-0 it's the beautiful mix of feeling both smart and stupid. Smart for identifying the keys ( Ville secondary , FG kicking , and habit on offense of leaving pts OTB ) and stupid for knowing how you are getting beat . So much nicer to just be clueless and lose ..lots of game left so one never knows what will happen ...
 
HaHa 49-0 at Half. What an embarrassment every fuck up just continue to suck the life out of Louisville and RU just keep attacking . Terrible results . All started with the fumble at the RU 2 yd line...

It happens .
 
vegaskyle said:
Got destroyed in cbb tonight , nut ... i know how it feels.
Click to expand...

Sorry VK about CBB. Decided to just look at CBB only the days I have the time to otherwise I wind up half assing all the sporst I look it due to lack of time.

Kick in the balls here with Louisvile but hopefully the SDC game continues to follow suit and I will at worst be even maybe up some in football. :cheers:GL if you have anything pending ...
 
SportsNut said:
Sorry VK about CBB. Decided to just look at CBB only the days I have the time to otherwise I wind up half assing all the sporst I look it due to lack of time.

Kick in the balls here with Louisvile but hopefully the SDC game continues to follow suit and I will at worst be even maybe up some in football. :cheers:GL if you have anything pending ...
Click to expand...


yeah there is a reason i bet less on cbb. just not as good at it as with mlb or cfb/nfl.

I think it was my worst day of posted plays since i have been posting on the forum. so it was a kick to the balls.
 
It happens to all of us . I dont have to remind of you that I am sure. Take a day off relax , stay away from sports and the forum , come back refreshed on Saturday . Capping is about making decisions more then anything and a bad day isnt reflective of ability . You could simple need a moment to regroup . It;s why I said fuck CBB as much as love it and how well it can treat someone early in the season. Doing everything half ass because its just so much work with these heavy daily schedules then coupled with 3 other sports and losing games I shouldnt be betting in every sport . So alot of wasted effort and money in general not specific to a sport . :shake:
 
headed to Cali. kyle, GL the rest of the weekend...and remember my favorite saying (and the reason I don't play it anymore), "College Basketball is fucked."...
 
pags11 said:
headed to Cali. kyle, GL the rest of the weekend...and remember my favorite saying (and the reason I don't play it anymore), "College Basketball is fucked."...
Click to expand...


Yup. It isn't that it is messed up ,as much as it is that I am just not that good at it.

Enjoy the californication.
 
Rolled with Buffalo (Lev2) and going to hard to convince me of Bama but I will check it out. Thanks ! GL
 
nice call SN on Buffalo SN..

The NBA is what is fucked..college bball you can make a ton if you pick your spots and know your mid majors.
 
Thanks Huntdog . In reference to the difference sports the hardest aspect IMO is always time . Which really can me an issue in CBB if your not 100% dedicated to it . Look at all the time spent on discussing the football games . We get a whole week to look at game and decide. CBB ,NBA and MLB are tough because of the daily grind x volume. Like you said its about picking your spots but for me that gets hard because the best way for me to get familar with a sport starting a new season is by actually betting it . It forces me to research the games and follow them. Otherwise not interested regardless of sport . I havent played CBB since Sunday and I dont think I can tell you one line let alone an outcome this entire week....Anyway what I am saying is being ultra selective early just may be the only way to go these days . Until the season has some to depth to it because it makes research easier IMO and I know people argue lines get tighter as the season goes on. They really dont IMO its the perception of teams that become clearer . Which can be exploited as easily . Like a Buffalo tonight ......GL bro

 
Thread Hijack

Probably post my plays in here because I am to lazy to start another one.


NOON:
Army +11{Level2} :
Might make this a max bet but waiting to closer to gametime to lock in . Looking at the UNDER but 43 is low might teaser Army and the UNDER . Already solid defenses BOTH get to face the triple option they practice against everyday with very little threat of passing games.

Under 65 Tulsa & Tulsa{Lean for now}:
Bouncing back and forth on what side to take . The ECU injury report is long and would just like to see if any of these guys miss before I jump in . Even though Tulsa's low is 49 at home expect alot of ball control and ground game here at least to start . ECU certainly doesnt want to fall behind quickly or get in a shootout IMO . Suprised that few have picked up on ECU being 0-6 ATS away this year though 5x as chalk and only dogged 3 @ SoMiss. In Fact after the early upsets ECU just 2-8 ATS and that includes last weeks blowout win. Lean Tulsa minus the points.Thinking ECU gets a garbage TD and finishes up 38-42 Tulsa to 21.

UConn -2.5 or ML {Level1} :
Again might bump this up but its definetly a play . Actually could even wind up a max play but since its real early in the morning no need to rush to decisions yet IMO. Basically Pitt comes off a huge , last minute win in the Backyard Brawl where they just survived . That type game if duplicated here edges go to the home team which is now UConn. Basically say they won a coin flip last week IMO thanks to homefield and see another tight contest here which give the edge to the home team pulling it out late. Like Huskies extra rest and have thse teams basically equal just Pitt having more upside . WVU killed themselves early by settling for 2 short FGs rather then TDs as Pitt is probably to far out of it by the 4thQ to rally if that happened(would have been down 23-7 after the WVU fg). Huskies already beat them past 2 years and expect them to quietly do it again....total is tight IMO ...24-20 Huskies?

1 PM :
VaTech +1 or better : {Level2}
Same deal not rushing just being patient and might make max it out if I got +3. Just dont see how a neutral field this is a PKem. Two very solid defenses , VaTech runs it better and would take Taylor over 2nd career start Davis,and like last year BC owns the reg season win and faces them in the Championship. Pretty decent trip for BC down to FLA as well.....Oh and a FRESHMAN with 1 start is the BC QB in the ACC CHAMPIONSHIP ??

4 PM:
Florida -9.5 {Level 2}
Just dont see it from the Bama offense . IMO most of the Bama success is about timing and well even with injuries not sure this is a good time to be playing Florida . Percy Harvin NOT playing would shock me . The Bame defense is very good but again who have they played ? No, Florida's schedule was not tough but it was clearly and I mean clearly tougher then Bama's. In a few cases Bama's games were alot closer then they should have been like Kentucky at home. However I do not believe for one second that if Bama wanted to they could blwo anyone it . Trust me in CFB with this setup if they could they would. That doesnt mean hang 56 pts on teams but vs that schedule 35-42 pts isnt much . Many of talked about FLA's speed vs FSU well its turf now as well . Bama's run game is very overrated . I knew it would get overshadowed @ LSU and it did . 31-17 game so leaning UNDER as well might tease those 2 with Army if I could get to +21.5 ...

8PM:
Missouri +17 {Level2}patience....
Just LOVE teams off SU losses as DD chalk . Especially when they spread flips 35 or so points which is 5 TDS in one week ! OU is great but the difference is Missouri will slow the game down IMO and grind away against a OU defense holding only Texas Tech --WTF?? to less then 28 pts since Texas. Some help being in KC as well and like how Mizzou played them 2x last year including this same game as 3 pt dogs when Mizzou was top dog at times reaching #1..

The only game I would say it appears I am definetly on is Arkansas State just to tired to comment on it ......

Be Back later after I get some more ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz's...:cheers::shake:






















 
SportsNut said:
Probably post my plays in here because I am to lazy to start another one.


NOON:
Army +11.5 {Level3} / Teaser +17 & Under 49{level1} also 1st H ARmy +6.5 -115 {Lev2} : LOSERS
Might make this a max bet but waiting to closer to gametime to lock in . Looking at the UNDER but 43 is low might teaser Army and the UNDER . Already solid defenses BOTH get to face the triple option they practice against everyday with very little threat of passing games.

Under 66 Tulsa(still waiting to see how high) & Tulsa -12 {Level1s} SPLIT
Bouncing back and forth on what side to take . The ECU injury report is long and would just like to see if any of these guys miss before I jump in . Even though Tulsa's low is 49 at home expect alot of ball control and ground game here at least to start . ECU certainly doesnt want to fall behind quickly or get in a shootout IMO . Suprised that few have picked up on ECU being 0-6 ATS away this year though 5x as chalk and only dogged 3 @ SoMiss. In Fact after the early upsets ECU just 2-8 ATS and that includes last weeks blowout win. Lean Tulsa minus the points.Thinking ECU gets a garbage TD and finishes up 38-42 Tulsa to 21.

UConn ML -140 {Level2} LOSS&Under 45.5{Level1} WIN:added UConn ML -120{Lev1}LOSS But falls short fo a max play
Again might bump this up but its definetly a play . Actually could even wind up a max play but since its real early in the morning no need to rush to decisions yet IMO. Basically Pitt comes off a huge , last minute win in the Backyard Brawl where they just survived . That type game if duplicated here edges go to the home team which is now UConn. Basically say they won a coin flip last week IMO thanks to homefield and see another tight contest here which give the edge to the home team pulling it out late. Like Huskies extra rest and have thse teams basically equal just Pitt having more upside . WVU killed themselves early by settling for 2 short FGs rather then TDs as Pitt is probably to far out of it by the 4thQ to rally if that happened(would have been down 23-7 after the WVU fg). Huskies already beat them past 2 years and expect them to quietly do it again....total is tight IMO ...24-20 Huskies?


1 PM :
VaTech +1 : {Level3} WINNER
Same deal not rushing just being patient and might make max it out if I got +3. Just dont see how a neutral field this is a PKem. Two very solid defenses , VaTech runs it better and would take Taylor over 2nd career start Davis,and like last year BC owns the reg season win and faces them in the Championship. Pretty decent trip for BC down to FLA as well.....Oh and a FRESHMAN with 1 start is the BC QB in the ACC CHAMPIONSHIP ??


4 PM:
Florida -9.5 {Level 3}(maxed out) Under 54 {Level1}
Just dont see it from the Bama offense . IMO most of the Bama success is about timing and well even with injuries not sure this is a good time to be playing Florida . Percy Harvin NOT playing would shock me . The Bame defense is very good but again who have they played ? No, Florida's schedule was not tough but it was clearly and I mean clearly tougher then Bama's. In a few cases Bama's games were alot closer then they should have been like Kentucky at home. However I do not believe for one second that if Bama wanted to they could blwo anyone it . Trust me in CFB with this setup if they could they would. That doesnt mean hang 56 pts on teams but vs that schedule 35-42 pts isnt much . Many of talked about FLA's speed vs FSU well its turf now as well . Bama's run game is very overrated . I knew it would get overshadowed @ LSU and it did . 31-17 game so leaning UNDER as well might tease those 2 with Army if I could get to +21.5 ...

8PM:
Missouri +17 {Level2}patience....
Just LOVE teams off SU losses as DD chalk . Especially when they spread flips 35 or so points which is 5 TDS in one week ! OU is great but the difference is Missouri will slow the game down IMO and grind away against a OU defense holding only Texas Tech --WTF?? to less then 28 pts since Texas. Some help being in KC as well and like how Mizzou played them 2x last year including this same game as 3 pt dogs when Mizzou was top dog at times reaching #1..

The only game I would say it appears I am definetly on is Arkansas State just to tired to comment on it ......

Be Back later after I get some more ZZZZzzzzzzzzzzz's...:cheers::shake:
Click to expand...

Teaser : Fla PK , Broncos +0.5 , Tulsa -2 {Level1}Loser


Still waiting on Ark State now +12 , Under 53 Bama , and USF +7 or better

Still undecided or passing on the rest for now:cheers:

Rough start. Had the totals but stink on the Noon ATS....:cheers:
 
Last edited:
Rest of the night :

Ark State +13 {Level2}

1st Half WKU +4 {Level2}

USF +7.5 -120 {level1}

Missouri +17 {Level2}
1st H Missouri +10 {level1}

Under 51 ASU {Level2)

Leaning Over 47 WVU and 1st H Under Oklahoma......

GL:cheers:


 
Kyle I wanted to personally thank you for all the help this season. Also congrats on your solid season. Wondering if you want to talk bowls. If yes you know my number or you know where to get it.
 
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