2008 cfb -- time to post my championship week card so far

[RetroVK]

updated through week 13
overall 77-64-2 54.6%
Sides 53-43-2 55.2%
moneyline dogs 1-1
totals 23-20 53.5 %

Went 1-0 last week with nevada getting a come from behind cover for me. Will recap that game later in the week.


locked in

No Plays this week barring significant line movement.

strong leans

the ville +11.5 eliminated dec 3
Army +11 eliminated dec 3
tulsa -13 eliminated dec 3
boston college PK eliminated dec 1
alabama +10 eliminated dec 3


talk me off leans

arizona state +10 eliminated dec 3

 

[bull]

kyle:
I won th same game and was on La Tech.
Between us we had ourselves a middle.
lol

 

[RetroVK]

kyle:
I won th same game and was on La Tech.
Between us we had ourselves a middle.
lol

Grats bull. nevada was sleepwalking most of the game , which was a concern .... i was the lucky one of the two of us to cash my part of that middle hehe.

 

[RJ Esq]

VK--

Why Army? I'm about to pull the trigger on Navy. Navy is a far superior team, has only failed to cover 1 time in the last 5 and has won its' last 5 against Army by at least 12. 11 looks like a short number.

Before I pull the trigger would like to know your thoughts.

 

[Timh]

Noticed this about Navy, when Dobbs plays QB Shun White TB doesn't get the ball as much because Navy doesn't trust Dobbs on the option pitch. Therefore, Dobbs is either keeping it or the fullback is getting it. Dobbs is the best runner out of Kapai (5 name Hawaiian) and Bryant and also by far the best passer. He is not as good on the total option package as Kapai because he's lacking a little on the option pitch. Army has gone to the option this year so they are very familiar with defending it and Army is much better against the run then defending the pass. So, I think they actually match up pretty well here and could make this game much more competitive than it has been in the last couple of years. If you watch check out No. 50 LB Steve Anderson for Army. He is quite a player.

 

[RetroVK]

VK--

Why Army? I'm about to pull the trigger on Navy. Navy is a far superior team, has only failed to cover 1 time in the last 5 and has won its' last 5 against Army by at least 12. 11 looks like a short number.

Before I pull the trigger would like to know your thoughts.

Agree with a lot of what timh says ... especially concerning trusting dobbs on the perimeter with the pitch. Thing is that Army has defended the run real well and is familiar with the option obviously ... they know the assignments. Army is only giving up 3.64 yards per carry ( you do have to consider that army played possibly the easiest schedule in fbs football ) and were competitive in every game that did not involve a powerhouse passing attack. Rice , rutgers and akron gave them problems... the temple game was a deceiving score where the defense actually played well. Game will be in philly so neither team gets a hfa. Navy offense has actually been sputtering a lot.

Last game they scored 16 points while shutting down niu. There were 7 navy drives in that game and 13 total drives which i think points to the limited number of possessions that tend to occur in option offense games.

They had 11 first downs and 242 yards against notre dame and a lot of that success came at the end when the game was apparently in hand for nd. crazy ending.

They did absolutely nothing vs temple prior to the fourth quarter when temple let up and collapsed and navy tied it on a fluke fumble play when the owls were trying to run out the clock.

They dominated smu in what was a nice matchup for them against smu run defense.

12 first downs while getting dominated by pitt.

13 first downs vs air force but got two blocked punts for scores ...

benefitted from 6 wake turnovers to win by 7 while getting just 14 first downs

Not inspiring to want to lay a big number with a team consistently getting in that 12-14 first down area.

Both teams will obviously be up for this game and trying until the bitter end.

That is why i like army some. lvsc released 14.5 and i was ready to pounce but the books released lower and it makes me think they want navy money.

 

[RetroVK]

Noticed this about Navy, when Dobbs plays QB Shun White TB doesn't get the ball as much because Navy doesn't trust Dobbs on the option pitch. Therefore, Dobbs is either keeping it or the fullback is getting it. Dobbs is the best runner out of Kapai (5 name Hawaiian) and Bryant and also by far the best passer. He is not as good on the total option package as Kapai because he's lacking a little on the option pitch. Army has gone to the option this year so they are very familiar with defending it and Army is much better against the run then defending the pass. So, I think they actually match up pretty well here and could make this game much more competitive than it has been in the last couple of years. If you watch check out No. 50 LB Steve Anderson for Army. He is quite a player.

yup .. navy is not going to pass you to death like a rice , rutgers or even akron.

 

[pags11]

timh, that's a great observation 'cause I checked last week's box score and was like "How did White only get one carry?"...

 

[HUNT]

Fellas what is the deal with this BC line? Seriously? I thought they would be favored by a good 4 or 5.

 

[RetroVK]

Fellas what is the deal with this BC line? Seriously? I thought they would be favored by a good 4 or 5.

yeah ... assumed bc would be the favorite ... must be the qb situation .. bc would be a bigger favorite if it was Crane and not the rubber armed dude.

 

[HUNT]

true..I like the defense of BC though...tough game.

 

[B.A.R.]

I wanna hear on ASU..why leaning..cuz even though line moved it looks up a lot...think ASU tanks here basically and love U of A

 

[nawlins51]

GL VK. The lines that I made are Bc -1.5,Ville +10,Florida -8,ECU+7. The others were dead on with the books. Anyway my favorite play of the week has to be ECU. I think ECU will not have any problems moving the ball against Tulsa. THis imo will be high scoring game. I have the total around 60. I just don't think Tulsa will cover the 14. Please let me know what you see because I am thinking of pounding the fuck out this game. The other game I like is Bama.With you on them. I think the line may drop and this play will be the popular play of the week so thats a scary thought.

 

[RetroVK]

I wanna hear on ASU..why leaning..cuz even though line moved it looks up a lot...think ASU tanks here basically and love U of A

Well , i guess i dont see why asu would pick this game to tank. i thought they had mailed it in prior to the oregon state game but they played their asses off in that one and have reeled off 3 straight wins since.

The main reason i think they are competitive is that their defense has been solid all year long. Giving up 330 yards a game and 4.8 yards per play and about 22 points per game.

Look at how they have performed recently.

gave up 3.9 yards per play to ucla who averages 4.3 per play
gave up 2.4 yards per play to wazzu who averages 3.9 per play
gave up 4.0 yards per play to washington who averages 4.1 yards per play
gave up 5.1 yards per play to oregon st who averages 5.8 yards per play
gave up 7.3 yards per play to oregon who averages 6.5 yards per play
gave up 5.6 yards per play to usc who averages 6.7 yards per play

Now the concern would be that arizona most resembles the two teams from the state of oregon offensively as far as style and production goes.

Arizona has been playing their worst football of the year over the last month or so. I do think their defense has matched up well against these pro set type of offenses like usc and cal ... and asu is similar in that regard and lets face it ... asu struggles to score at times.

I just think that from a motivational standpoint that asu looked like they were throwing in the towel and since then they have responded so i would find this a strange spot to quit against their big instate rival.

Coaching mismatch in favor of asu as well.

Not sold on the play as i have not really been sold on asu all year but i think the line is too high given asu defensive performance vs recent zona efforts vs any team with a pulse.

 

[SportsNut]

Hard for me to believe that BC should be more then -1.5 vs VaTech in the ACC Championship game .

VaTech has had issues all year but BC 's offense has not done much with Davis at QB. Freshman starting in the Champ game in what is naturally a road game. Just think he couldnt move the ball @ WF dont expect him to now.

Agree with the PK opener and looking VT. Hard to see BC scoring much at all.

Havent seen much I like though I agree with VK 11 is alot with Navy at the moment .

As impressed as I have been with Oklahoma just think its to many points vs Missouri . Might have a max play on Missouri here . I think even with the SU loss -13 would be high . Give me 2 TDs and maybe 3 possessions .

Have to think if its a 10 pt game late OU winning they try and run the clock rather then score or if its a 21 pt game Mizzou will look to get a late TD to make it look more respectable. OU has been scoring a ton with 4 straight 60 plus games but dont think they get it here and they have allowed at least 28 in all but one since texas......

45-31 OU would cut it close but it could be alot closer then that like 45-35.

Mix in OU will be down to its 3rd string starting MLB and just see a ton of points here ....

Missouri looked great early on but then Okie State stopped them. I think Missouri's offense is the key because they can match the OU offense .

Crazy to get in front of this train but away from home to many points ....:shake:

 

[Aztec4Life]

Leaning to Bama and the Ville. GL this week buddy!

:cheers:

 

[VThokies]

Fellas what is the deal with this BC line? Seriously? I thought they would be favored by a good 4 or 5.

Take a good look at the under when the total comes out. Im hoping low 40's but maybe be in the 30's. The first game was 28-23 @BC but that was with three defensive or special teams td's. Tech had about 150 yds rushing in that game (if memory is right) but most of that was Taylor scrambling....BC pretty much shut down Techs rb's. BC had all 28 of their points at halftime of that game. Foster's adjustments shut them out for the 2nd half


I will be on VT ML. They are by no means a efficient passing team but they are not as one dimensional as they were in midseason....simply due to their fresh wr's getting a little more dependable with more experience. Also it seems harder to beat the same team twice

 

[RetroVK]

Hard for me to believe that BC should be more then -1.5 vs VaTech in the ACC Championship game .

VaTech has had issues all year but BC 's offense has not done much with Davis at QB. Freshman starting in the Champ game in what is naturally a road game. Just think he couldnt move the ball @ WF dont expect him to now.

Agree with the PK opener and looking VT. Hard to see BC scoring much at all.

Havent seen much I like though I agree with VK 11 is alot with Navy at the moment .

As impressed as I have been with Oklahoma just think its to many points vs Missouri . Might have a max play on Missouri here . I think even with the SU loss -13 would be high . Give me 2 TDs and maybe 3 possessions .

Have to think if its a 10 pt game late OU winning they try and run the clock rather then score or if its a 21 pt game Mizzou will look to get a late TD to make it look more respectable. OU has been scoring a ton with 4 straight 60 plus games but dont think they get it here and they have allowed at least 28 in all but one since texas......

45-31 OU would cut it close but it could be alot closer then that like 45-35.

Mix in OU will be down to its 3rd string starting MLB and just see a ton of points here ....

Missouri looked great early on but then Okie State stopped them. I think Missouri's offense is the key because they can match the OU offense .

Crazy to get in front of this train but away from home to many points ....:shake:

I was thinking very similar to you as short as a couple days ago concerning missouri in this spot. But i also thought that the team was really just coasting , waiting for someone to play that they actually cared about. Kansas was a big rivalry game and they got outplayed by a clearly lesser opponent. So my coasting theory has now kind of been thrrown out the window , which leaves me with the idea that once missouri dreams were crushed , they never recovered emotionally. Oklahoma has proven they will give up points and missouri has proven they can score them. So , one does ahve to wonder just how many ou will have to score in order to cover a number this big.

The game is played in kansas city , in the same stadium that missouri just played kansas in , so i think that is an advantage for the tigers. Proximity will keep mizzou fans in the seats but make no mistake that the sooner fans will be driving their houses up to see the game.

kansas is the most similar offense to missouri that oklahoma has faced and the jayhawks had all kinds of success against the oklahoma secondary. Unfortunately , oklahoma most resembles texas and oklahoma state offensively which posed a lot of problems for the missouri defense.

I think over two td , there is a slight edge to missouri from a line value standpoint but i have pretty much made the decision of late to not get in the way of the elite teams unless i have an elite team on the other side of the ball. Missouri is not playing elite football right now and it is not as if this will be a low energy game from a motivational standpoint from oklahoma. A win gets them into the bcs title game.... and they will be hearing all week about how undeserving they are to be there because texas deserves it. Too much motivation for a good team against a quality opponent but one that has been getting worse and not better as the year has progressed.

Oklahoma is 0-1 on neutral fields this year.

I can't tell you that you don't have value with a missouri bet but i have a feeling that ou spanks them.

 

[RetroVK]

Leaning to Bama and the Ville. GL this week buddy!

:cheers:

This is good news. lvsc released rutgers -13 ... which woukl have been an insta-play on cards from me but want to look closer at this number.

Bama is the right side of that bet even if they go out and get creamed by 24. It is going to be hard to leave them off of the card this week,..... but i am 0-4 trying to cover against florida and 2 of the games i should have covered ( maimifl fg game and the hawaii game ) .... so i am tired of losing money to urban meyer. i look outside at my driveway and i could be looking at a new car if it werent for money lost on their games this year.

 

[RetroVK]

Take a good look at the under when the total comes out. Im hoping low 40's but maybe be in the 30's. The first game was 28-23 @BC but that was with three defensive or special teams td's. Tech had about 150 yds rushing in that game (if memory is right) but most of that was Taylor scrambling....BC pretty much shut down Techs rb's. BC had all 28 of their points at halftime of that game. Foster's adjustments shut them out for the 2nd half


I will be on VT ML. They are by no means a efficient passing team but they are not as one dimensional as they were in midseason....simply due to their fresh wr's getting a little more dependable with more experience. Also it seems harder to beat the same team twice

First , you are absolutely correct about the VT rushing yards in the first game between the two. Almsot all of it seemed to come from Tyrod Taylor scrambles. The kid refused to throw the football. If you have the game on tape , i highly suggest watching it because it showed just how further along glennon is right now compared to taylor as a qb. With the VT youth and inexperience at WR it is less noticeable and VT loses little total offense with him in because of scrambling. But in the first go around he made one quick look at his first option and then tucked and panic ran. Bud foster made incredible halftime adjustments against boston college the last time and BC really didn't move the ball all that well outside of the blown coverage near the end of the first half down the sideline when they were trying to jump a route. And all that was against Crane. Foster should have a field day getting davis to make mistakes. With that said , the eagles have been playing better defense than the hokies. I trust their ability to run slightly more than VT. I also think that VT is more likely to commit the key turnover than BC is simply from a number of opportunities standpoint. BC kicking game has steadily improved as the year has progressed as well. Then you have the frank beamer issue .... has this guy coached well in big game recently ??? last years bowl game vs kansas was the worst coached game of the entire year last season by any head coach in my opinion. If he didn't have foster , he would be a lost cause. Maybe the most overrated head coach with the whole "beamerball" label. And that has become a misnomer as well ..... VT has not had dominant special teams for a few years now.

lean heavy towards the under here at almost any number. If a team gets to 20 it seems to me it will have to come from a bad missed tackle , a blown coverage , a ST score or a defensive score. Neither team is driving the field on the other with any consistency.

All Bc does is go out and beat decent competition lately and that is also why i lean their way.

I had a VT ticket the first time these two teams played .....:hang:

 

[bull]

i may be wrong but i'm pretty sure that aside from ole miss game, the only game Florida did NOT cover was in the penultimate week against Citadel.
Line was 57 1/2 and hehe Fla led by 57 until Citadel got late TD to make final 70-19.
You go to the poor house by betting against the Gators this season.

 

[tunasunday]

"Maybe the most overrated head coach with the whole "beamerball" label. And that has become a misnomer as well ..... VT has not had dominant special teams for a few years now."

Man, I am glad someone finally pointed this out. The ECU game was lost on the blocked punt and the BC game was broken open by the BC punt return for a TD in the 2nd Quarter.

Kyle, I was on VT for the first matchup as well--I was so disgusted by their offensive ineptness--Tyrod scrambling is all they had offensively that game. This time around, if the BC front seven shuts down Evans, are we looking at the same thing? I think so. I can't stomach taking VT again when I have seen the same warning signs on offense in the UVA and Miami games.

I have an equally difficult time backing BC with their backup QB against Bud Foster's D. Somehow BC keeps getting the job done, which makes me even more wary of taking VT and if anything lean toward BC in this one. But betting a backup QB, who looks shaky, in his 2nd start, against a good defense, in a conference championship game--I don't think so.

Despite no trust in either offense, I have issues playing under 39.5. This has all the makings of a 17-13 game, but between two very good defenses, suspect QBs, grind it out offenses that will lead plenty of punts, and special teams capable of big plays, I am not comfortable that 39.5 is enough due to the multiple big play opportunities that will be presented to both defenses and special teams. There is no margin for error at 39.5--the prospects of OT in this game alone is enough to scare me off a number that low.

Although the first game may have been an anomaly with big non-offensive plays, these teams put up 51 points and did zilch offensively. A properly executed big play out of Steve Logan's bag of tricks and/or Evans/Tyrod breaking one is going to offset the freakish big defensive/special teams plays of the first contest.

I was hoping to get a number in the mid 40s and go low, but I am going to have to pass on this game on both side and total.

 

[tunasunday]

This may be a skewed way of looking at things, as I have been reasoning through this all day trying to come to a conclusion.

To me, OU = Florida.

Thus, if:

Florida is -10 versus #1 Alabama, with Nick Saban AND

OU is -16 versus a Pinkel coached Mizzouri team that just lost to Kansas and was blown out by Texas;

then either OU at -16 or Alabama at +10 have value--because Mizzou is not within a TD (or 2 TDs) of Alabama IMO. Maybe both have value. Just a different spin on things when reasoning through the games this week.

 

[RetroVK]

This may be a skewed way of looking at things, as I have been reasoning through this all day trying to come to a conclusion.

To me, OU = Florida.

Thus, if:

Florida is -10 versus #1 Alabama, with Nick Saban AND

OU is -16 versus a Pinkel coached Mizzouri team that just lost to Kansas and was blown out by Texas;

then either OU at -16 or Alabama at +10 have value--because Mizzou is not within a TD (or 2 TDs) of Alabama IMO. Maybe both have value. Just a different spin on things when reasoning through the games this week.

i love this type of line analysis and think everyone should do it. good stuff.

 

[RetroVK]

i may be wrong but i'm pretty sure that aside from ole miss game, the only game Florida did NOT cover was in the penultimate week against Citadel.
Line was 57 1/2 and hehe Fla led by 57 until Citadel got late TD to make final 70-19.
You go to the poor house by betting against the Gators this season.

i think there might have been one other week .. vandy maybe ?? not sure.

 

[RetroVK]

"Maybe the most overrated head coach with the whole "beamerball" label. And that has become a misnomer as well ..... VT has not had dominant special teams for a few years now."

Man, I am glad someone finally pointed this out. The ECU game was lost on the blocked punt and the BC game was broken open by the BC punt return for a TD in the 2nd Quarter.

Kyle, I was on VT for the first matchup as well--I was so disgusted by their offensive ineptness--Tyrod scrambling is all they had offensively that game. This time around, if the BC front seven shuts down Evans, are we looking at the same thing? I think so. I can't stomach taking VT again when I have seen the same warning signs on offense in the UVA and Miami games.

I have an equally difficult time backing BC with their backup QB against Bud Foster's D. Somehow BC keeps getting the job done, which makes me even more wary of taking VT and if anything lean toward BC in this one. But betting a backup QB, who looks shaky, in his 2nd start, against a good defense, in a conference championship game--I don't think so.

Despite no trust in either offense, I have issues playing under 39.5. This has all the makings of a 17-13 game, but between two very good defenses, suspect QBs, grind it out offenses that will lead plenty of punts, and special teams capable of big plays, I am not comfortable that 39.5 is enough due to the multiple big play opportunities that will be presented to both defenses and special teams. There is no margin for error at 39.5--the prospects of OT in this game alone is enough to scare me off a number that low.

Although the first game may have been an anomaly with big non-offensive plays, these teams put up 51 points and did zilch offensively. A properly executed big play out of Steve Logan's bag of tricks and/or Evans/Tyrod breaking one is going to offset the freakish big defensive/special teams plays of the first contest.

I was hoping to get a number in the mid 40s and go low, but I am going to have to pass on this game on both side and total.

pretty much seeing the game the same way ... i also have problems going under a number that low in ANY college football game. And you correctly point out that overtime is a legitimate concern.

 

[VThokies]

Then you have the frank beamer issue .... has this guy coached well in big game recently ??? last years bowl game vs kansas was the worst coached game of the entire year last season by any head coach in my opinion. If he didn't have foster , he would be a lost cause.

I have to agree with you there. If tech runs every play they win that one by three scores... and I would have no problem naming Foster HC tomorrow, atleast before somebody else gets him

 

[O-State]

Had under in VT-BC game first time. What I saw is BC with Crane they passed like their was no tommorrow that was the diff in the game, BC passing IMO. So qb injury will be huge I did not see BC-Maryland to see if this backup is adequate but UCF game early on BC was rotating between the two they were not sold on Crane as starter, so this guy almost was the starter

---Excellent observation Taylor I thought he was better than this but he is a runner only. Have major troulbe seeing VT score and BC offense has grown to become a more running oriented team lot more # of carries change in philosophy a tad. BC defense IMO is better as well.

I think BC Crane threw a pick for a TD and had another pick or two vs. VT and they still controlled

---was really Domination on BC part vs. VT the first time. Really was


Army great value here guys. Struggle vs. Rutgers and these spread passes, but man just compare common opponents---AIR FORCE. I mean Falcon backers lucky as get out in a 10 point win? AIR FORCE should of beat Navy if not for special teams

Haven't looked at stats yet was doing some analysis with Army ealrier in year definately a good matchup for them in this one from what I remember

---IMO BAMA is a must play based on fundamentals. Say UF does cover, I can't blame myself for playing BAMA. How in the HELL is this a 10 lined game I don't get it. It's like the RAMS vs. PATRIOTS. Bama is sooo good. This should be a pickem. IMO square's here have this lined 10. The VALUE is in Bama. It is. I think all solid cappers have to take some sort of action on BAMA based purely on fundamental value capping. Classic case of physcial great defense but perceived "boring" vs. sexy carmen electrica offense. Bama has done nothing to dominate I do not see how they can be dd dogs.

---ARIZONA I think rolls easily. I mean Zona yeah they have clinched bowl game and what not but Stoops loves this rivalry they will be harping on how they are on a losing streak need a win for seniors to make this a success and cap season. They will be ready. I will be taking Nati Zona an relying more on the obvious better team instead of being scared off by this motivational angle stuff


I like Missouri here. They have a great spot and OU will find itself like Texas did struggling in their 3rd and 4th game of the grind. Tejas struggled with Okie St.

Missouri should they have been pumped to play Kansas? I don't know

They won't play that bad again. Limelight is on Missouri this week again. I think this is a hell of a game and Texas jumps OU so the world will be right once again

 

[O-State]

yeah guys this UNDER stuff with games lined under 40 is for the birds

I learned my lesson no room for errors

 

[bull]

vandy maybe ?? not sure.

Nope, Urbie gave them a chance in ths one.
But Vandy couldn't score with 4 shots in the red zone last minute or two of th game.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[RetroVK]

vandy maybe ?? not sure.

Nope, Urbie gave them a chance in ths one.
But Vandy couldn't score with 4 shots in the red zone last minute or two of th game.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

thats right i remember now

 

[SportsNut]

i love this type of line analysis and think everyone should do it. good stuff.

The problem is finding correct value for all 4 teams . OU is probably the easiest team to figure but after that its a guessing game IMO .

Bama came out of nowhere and for the most part was underdogged vs quality teams or small favs . Being undervalued helped them early because teams were caught a tad of guard I think .

Missouri also tough to figure because they were the polar opposite of Bama coming into the season with expectations . Something happened at some point to them whether they started believing the hype and clearly no team is as a good as it looks when on top but seems like every time Missouri gets punched in the mouth they go south and sometimes dont recover .

Florida hard to figure because not a fan of their schedule but they also were upset at home as 20 pt favs . Ole Miss is a solid team and its not a knock but dont see much positive one can take from that. It did maybe serve as a wakeup call but there isnt much that impresses about FLA game to game the SEC is down.

FLA may have a better defense but I would make OU -3 vs Florida .

The thing about OU is they were always favored and always produced big numbers . They had one knock losing as 7 pt favs vs Texas in the Red River Shootout . Thing is they lead most of the way if I recall and it wasnt until OU got fancy that the momentum swung. Credit Texas for making big plays when it had to on both side of the ball . As I said play that game again and I still have OU as 6 pt favs . If you disagree then maybe a way to look at is OU went OKState as -10 meaning they are at least -17 at home vs them well Texas was around -11 and didnt cover ...so seems the oddsmakers might agree with my logic ......

Of the favs I like Florida more because Bama's offense is not very good . They may very well contain the Gator offense and hold them to 23-28 pts but what makes us think Bama can score 2 TDs on offense w/o a short field ??

Just some thoughts ..

Bama has really 3 quality wins Clemson who was a huge disappointment , @ Georgia who was also a disappointment based on expectations and LSU um yep disappointment . +4 , +6.5 and -3 is how they were lined . Then we see OU -7 vs Texas neutral field lose a close game , OU lay -10 @ Okie State and win by DDs and then some with late style points , TT -7 at home tremendous blowout , TCU near -20 pt favs , etc...

FLA close to OU but dont think they played many tough games ..@ FSU somewhat tough , SCAR at home , Georgia neutral field , Ole Miss and LSU at home moderatley tough games....OU just has a great resume IMO despite a couple shit teams ...

Missouri lost games they were -14 and -19 pt favs SU at home showing how overvalued they were but still hard to argue losing 3 or 4 pts in those games they dont rate alot higher then those opponents . It's one game and a close loss . They got smoked @ Texas but it was after the 1st loss so maybe they werent ready to play mentally in some way but still just 3.5 pt dogs . I still would think Missouri is about -4 on neutral field vs Okie State or -10 vS Kansas ...

Both Missouri and OU vs Kansas were -19 ish pt favs neither covered and one loss SU . So even if Missouri is -7 vs Kansas on a neutral field cant say the OU is much more then -17 which is a stretch but they are probably playing a tad better now then 6 weeks ago when they met...

Clearly Missouri is the weakest of the bunch but not sure there is any difference bewteen Mizzou and Bama really . Right now we are seeing Big 12 -6 vs SEC and I said I think OU is -3 vs FLA maybe -4 so then maybe the books feel Mizzou -2 vs Bama ....?? I just cant make Bama a fav over a Missouri ....:shake:

 

[tunasunday]

Nut--if I follow your analysis, you are saying that if Alabama were in the Big 12 they would be the 6th best team--OU, Tex, TT, Okie Lite (who beat Mizzou at Mizzou), Mizzou, then Alabama?

We will just disagree here. Put Bama on a neutral field with Texas Tech and you will see a game similar to the game the two teams had in the Cotton Bowl a few years ago, where defensive prowess outweighs offensive firepower. Not to mention accounting for the upgrade on the Tide sideline from Shula to Saban.

As O-State was stating above, Alabama has no sex appeal. They are just a well coached team that dominates the trenches, runs the ball, plays tough defense, and wins football games. The teams in the B12 are the antithesis of Alabama--if nothing else we have contrast in styles that will make for an appealing matchup and a debate on a message board.

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

I am just talking hypothetical lines. My comments are not based on how Bama plays or how good they are . I agree with what you said they will make life tough for everyone with a great defense and solid run game .

We are talking how games are lined and just giving my opinion . I think people have to do better conecting the dots on how teams were lined all season long and how they were bet by the gambling world .

What happens to Bama if they somehow find themselves down 14-0 ? We dont know cause they havent been.

If we are talking in terms of line STRENGTH then one thing I will say is yes Bama would rate behind the Big 12 teams you mentioned . Missouri is sort of the question mark as I said . Would not say they are better then Bama would expect though they would be slight fav if they squared off .

Just take LSU for example Bama is only -3 and barely won how good is LSU though ?? Essentially Bama is about -7 to -8 on a neutral field vs LSU . Georgia is not very good they are +6.5 and yes they won SU and the Bulldawgs were caught sleeping IMO . Possibly we could see Bama @ Georgia as PK but chances are Georgia might still be slight favs . FLA was -7.5 vs them on a neutral field and took them to the shed . I am only saying the numbers tend to have a basis if we look at what happened across a season.

Missouri is a huge mystery because its really hard to tell who they are and if playing for the Big 12 Championship again will wake them up .

My point is looking at how lines have been set for these teams to me its clear the Big 12 is grading much higher then the SEC.

The Big 12 to me is OU at the top and very little seperating Texas , Okie State , Texas Tech and Missouri not in a specific order . As I said OU is still close to 6 pts better then Texas IMO . Whose next on the list pretty close IMO bewteen TT and , Missouri , Okie State and different types of teams obviously . When I say pretty close I mean no pt to 3 pt differential at most . So lump Bama into that group as well . We are talking minor seperation ....

Maybe I will have time to look at things closer but with some research this is how I feel . We cant overlook the fact that Bama was only -3 pt favs and dogged vs its best opponents and mid teen chalk vs medicore SEC teams .

Dont take it as meknocking Bama just looking at what occurred and developing an opinion . Not about the product so much:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Also Bama's defense has played mostly terrible offenses so what do we go off ? LSU moved the ball on them , Georgia moved the ball in the 2nd H . Who else is even decent on offense ? I cant see how a healthy TT not worn down from a rough stretch games struggles with Bama . They beat Texas and Bama is not better then Texas .....

 

[Timh]

"Maybe the most overrated head coach with the whole "beamerball" label. And that has become a misnomer as well ..... VT has not had dominant special teams for a few years now."

Man, I am glad someone finally pointed this out. The ECU game was lost on the blocked punt and the BC game was broken open by the BC punt return for a TD in the 2nd Quarter.

Kyle, I was on VT for the first matchup as well--I was so disgusted by their offensive ineptness--Tyrod scrambling is all they had offensively that game. This time around, if the BC front seven shuts down Evans, are we looking at the same thing? I think so. I can't stomach taking VT again when I have seen the same warning signs on offense in the UVA and Miami games.

I have an equally difficult time backing BC with their backup QB against Bud Foster's D. Somehow BC keeps getting the job done, which makes me even more wary of taking VT and if anything lean toward BC in this one. But betting a backup QB, who looks shaky, in his 2nd start, against a good defense, in a conference championship game--I don't think so.

Despite no trust in either offense, I have issues playing under 39.5. This has all the makings of a 17-13 game, but between two very good defenses, suspect QBs, grind it out offenses that will lead plenty of punts, and special teams capable of big plays, I am not comfortable that 39.5 is enough due to the multiple big play opportunities that will be presented to both defenses and special teams. There is no margin for error at 39.5--the prospects of OT in this game alone is enough to scare me off a number that low.

Although the first game may have been an anomaly with big non-offensive plays, these teams put up 51 points and did zilch offensively. A properly executed big play out of Steve Logan's bag of tricks and/or Evans/Tyrod breaking one is going to offset the freakish big defensive/special teams plays of the first contest.

I was hoping to get a number in the mid 40s and go low, but I am going to have to pass on this game on both side and total.

Hell of a post there Tuna and really describes how I feel about the game. I was thinking under too but the number is just too low. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

Finished the ASU game from a capping standpoint. I will play it at 13 or more. sits 11/11.5 most places and i see one 12. So line is moving up. If it does not get there i will NOT be betting it and therefore do not recommend anyone else to bet it unless they get 13 or more. i doubt it gets there. also eliminating boston college. Just not quite good enough for my money and was hoping line would move other direction.

 

[broadwayjoe]

well asu and bc were the ones that i personally didn't like vk...glad you haven't eliminated the others yet...will likely play louisville and definitely bama

 

[RetroVK]

GL VK. The lines that I made are Bc -1.5,Ville +10,Florida -8,ECU+7. The others were dead on with the books. Anyway my favorite play of the week has to be ECU. I think ECU will not have any problems moving the ball against Tulsa. THis imo will be high scoring game. I have the total around 60. I just don't think Tulsa will cover the 14. Please let me know what you see because I am thinking of pounding the fuck out this game. The other game I like is Bama.With you on them. I think the line may drop and this play will be the popular play of the week so thats a scary thought.

missed this earlier. What i see in this game is that tulsa is one team at home and one team on the road. This championship game will be played at tulsa.

Tulsa at home this year

56-14 win over new mexico 606 yards of offense 28 first downs
62-34 win over cent arkansas 641 yards of offense 29 first downs
63-28 win over rice 577 yards of offense and 31 first downs
77-35 win over utep ( doh ) 791 yards and 36 first downs
49-19 win over ucf ( best D in cusa ) 436 yards of offense and 22 first downs
56-7 win over tulane 593 yards of offense and 28 first downs

ECU is averaging just 17 on the road this year , so i just don't think they can keep up. Have failed to reach 30 in every road game and tulsa is averaging 60.5 at home and their lowest output was 49.

Tulsa brings in the most efficient passing game in cfb oer the course of the season and it is even better at home. I do agree that ecu can have some success moving the ball but to bet them is asking them to do something they haven't done all year and expecting less of tulsa than what they have done all year.

If i bet this it will be because of this home vs away scenario where i feel one team is a shell of itself and the other is a monster.

Convince me that ecu scores a bunch and i will bet the over instead because everything points to tulsa scoring.

 

[SportsNut]

Jumping all over the place and have zero strong leans or plays just a bunch of thoughts.

ULL has played porrly past 3 and that concerns me but have this game at -6 or -6.5 think a good amount of value in them. Unless something happened to create this slump . Seems to be they just got real overvalued .... of course now getting painetd to -5 everywhere so going to be tough to even get at -4-120

 

[SportsNut]

ULL -4-120

Still have some -4.5 's out there but alot of 5's as well . Probably a max play for me .

ULL has lost 3 straight and MTSU has won 3 straight but think huge difference in competition . ULL has played at Troy , at FAU and hosted OOC UTEP . MTSU hosted NTexas , played @ WKU and hosted ULMonroe .

Have this line anywhere from -6 to -7pts IMO.

MTSU is good at hanging around and competing vs teams from power conferences -Lville , Miss State , Kentucky , beat schizo Maryland at home by dominating TOP . They have a fluke win vs FAU we all remember that snore fest won on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation. beat ULMonroe by 3 but led the whole way and keep them at arms distance but didnt cover the -4 . Then the wins vs botomfeeders WKU who has no offense to speak of and Notexas who has no defense to speak of .

MTSU wasnt very competitive IMO @ FIU , @ ARK State or hosting Troy .

ULL beat FIU by 28 laying -12 at home , Ark State gave them a agme but they scored the last 2 TDs to win by 5 after a pick 6 and covered -3 , they played @ ULMonroe laying -1.5 winning by 9 pts , they beat OOC foe Kent State prettu comfortably laying -2 , they hung tough@ Kansas State and @ Ill losing by just 3 pts , only bad game ws the opener @So Miss where they got ran over and lost by 30 geting crushed on the ground...

Motivation ? MTSU is now 5-6 and with a 3 game losing streak so is ULL . Winner gets a bowl game and last for one ULL was 1970 !!!!!!

Suddenly penalties are an issue which hopefully is addressed .

MTSU solid vs the run so expecting a lower scoring game with MTSU dink and dunk offense ...

Maybe an under or ULL to Under 2 team teaser .....
:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

ULL -4-120

Still have some -4.5 's out there but alot of 5's as well . Probably a max play for me .

ULL has lost 3 straight and MTSU has won 3 straight but think huge difference in competition . ULL has played at Troy , at FAU and hosted OOC UTEP . MTSU hosted NTexas , played @ WKU and hosted ULMonroe .

Have this line anywhere from -6 to -7pts IMO.

MTSU is good at hanging around and competing vs teams from power conferences -Lville , Miss State , Kentucky , beat schizo Maryland at home by dominating TOP . They have a fluke win vs FAU we all remember that snore fest won on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation. beat ULMonroe by 3 but led the whole way and keep them at arms distance but didnt cover the -4 . Then the wins vs botomfeeders WKU who has no offense to speak of and Notexas who has no defense to speak of .

MTSU wasnt very competitive IMO @ FIU , @ ARK State or hosting Troy .

ULL beat FIU by 28 laying -12 at home , Ark State gave them a agme but they scored the last 2 TDs to win by 5 after a pick 6 and covered -3 , they played @ ULMonroe laying -1.5 winning by 9 pts , they beat OOC foe Kent State prettu comfortably laying -2 , they hung tough@ Kansas State and @ Ill losing by just 3 pts , only bad game ws the opener @So Miss where they got ran over and lost by 30 geting crushed on the ground...

Motivation ? MTSU is now 5-6 and with a 3 game losing streak so is ULL . Winner gets a bowl game and last for one ULL was 1970 !!!!!!

Suddenly penalties are an issue which hopefully is addressed .

MTSU solid vs the run so expecting a lower scoring game with MTSU dink and dunk offense ...

Maybe an under or ULL to Under 2 team teaser .....
:cheers:

This far into the season and i don't have a good feel for either team ,,,, so i am not going to try now but your posts make sense.

good stuff keep it coming.

 

[SportsNut]

I would be lying if I said I had a good feel for these teams but at this point simply betting on or against lines as I see as incorrect with the situation of the game taken into account ...

Leans :

Buffalo now at +15 - based mostly on thinking at most the line would be -13 maybe -10 had Buff not lost SU but alot of work to do still. I love that Buffalo is like the true underdog rising up and sort of the perfect spot with them playing undefeated ball State to test that perception...

Missouri now at +17 - After big wins think its tough to blow out 3 straight good teams . Missouri has certainly underperformed for the stretch run but not all that much has changed in these teams to take a game which was -3 last year to -17 this year . Missouri has never even been dogged outside of Texas who crushed them in the 1st H but the Tigers still clawed back in the 2nd H. Which even if OU is up 3 TDs at half and think this game was tied at half last year we can IMO count on Missouri to fight back especially with Daniels always looking to prove himself IMO . The OU defense allows points as only 1(somehow that was Texas tech with 21 ) since the Red river Shootout did a team fail to get to 28 or better vs them. At you need 46 pts or more to lose and hard to believe OU is taking on style points late in the game . Would think every coach with a comfortable lead is more worried about running the clock out and staying healthy . While Mizzou lost to Okie State would still grade the Tigers stronger then Okie Lite ..maybe an arguement can be made for -13 or -14 but above that value is Missouri's corner ...I look at the Loss @ texas and could texas have played any better they picthed a perfect game 29/32 for McCoy and Chiles chipped in 1/1 for 51 yds . Clearly the Mizzou pass defense is a concern . Mizzou also played solid @ OU last year losing by 10 but leading by 1 to start the 4th quarter as 13.5 pt dogs .....to me this line is overkill . The Kansas loss is tough to swallow but they also were down 26-10 and came back but somehow failed to hold KU with little time on the clock. Also have to look @ OU's punter because KU's guy did a nice job putting them iside the 20 3x .

KU enjoyed great field position all day . Having a INT put them on the MO 20 and the having the ball 32 , 37 ,32 and 44 line in the 1st H .The 2nd H not much better 25 , 39 , MO 47 , 16 , 37 , MO 49 and 33 . While Missouri had 13 possessions 4 started inside theor own 13 yd line and 3 more avg in the 20 something yd range . The rest 36 ,38 ,39 , 40 and 44 plus KU 35....Missouri only 2 punts but 3 turnovers plus a safety .

Like how Daniel is taking responsibility for the two home losses and seemingly fired up to face OU .....Basically like how the Missouri offense can keep the ball out of the hands of the Missouri offense and expect that this game is not super high scoring because of it .

79 total might see 80 or so ...have to think Under as no one wants to match scores with OU IMO more like a 38-31 game or even 42-31 ...hard to believe Mizzou could win but sometimes 3rd time is a charm but they will need OU to self destruct like it did vs Texas IMO.....

Va Tech +1 and 1st H under 20ish :
Two tough defenses but think VaTech with Taylor has been solid especialy after that terrible 1st H a few weeks back. The points didnt come last week vs UVA but think something like 4 red zone trips = progress IMO . While BC doesnt run the ball effectively and is relying upon a freshman to win an ACC Champiosnship game . Just like last year the fact BC beat them reg season makes it harder for them to do it twice with litte sepearting the teams ...Look how bad BC was @ WF on offense and thats a good example IMO because WF has a very solid defense like VaTech . While Marylands is more okay then anything good and still took some creativity to win and score.

Havent looked at the Big East yet all .

ALready said like your logic with Army and its climbing

Looking at Tulsa as ECU has been medicore at home really both have but low score for Tulsa at home is 49 vs a very solid UCF defense ..

Actually really thinking that Was U 1st H might be a good play . The Cal offense has struggled for the most part and last game , winless , new coach the whole deal would make me guess that Huskies play tough for at least a half. Problem is can they score ? Only time Cal led by more then 10 at home at the half was vs CSU 21-0 and they had defensive TD and punt return. Have to look at Wash ST as well...even +35 is attractive only the elite offenses have scored 40+ on them ...good chance Cal gets to just 35-38 needing just a FG to cover....

Leaning Florida . Looking at Bama's schedule they basically played 7 home games vs weak teams which at least 6 had weak offenses . When I think Auburn , Miss State , Kentucky , WKU and out of conference teams liek Ark State and Tulane of course they are overmatched. They played 1 decent team at home IMO which was Miss . Ole Miss is a good team but struggled with consistently for a good stretch . Bama kicked but teh 1st H up 24-3 but lost teh 2nd H 17-0 and nearly the game while FLA had 5 turnovers and a missed XP to lose at home by 1 ...Even away ARK early on was inept on offense , @ Tenny disappointing offense again , then Clemson in the opener you guessed it disappointing offense , LSU with Lee a QB who had huge INT issues and it took OT but 3 LSU TDs on offense and they moved the ball IMO , last was @ Georgia where they smoked them in the 2nd H and but Georgia managed to still get 31 pts on the board.

Clearly Georgia is the biggest test they faced which was a nice win where they stepped on Georgia. Florida though on the nuetral field just embarrassed them and blew them out . South Carolina and LSU solid teams just embarrassed. Then @ FSU blowout laying -17.....

Florida just seems that good and priced fairly because of the reputation of Bama's defense ...For all the talk about Bama's defense the stats are equal and think FLA clearly had a tougher schedule .

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>ALAB
FLA</TD><TD class=datacell>11.5
12.2</TD><TD class=datacell>248.5
275.7</TD><TD class=datacell>174.9
172.9</TD><TD class=datacell>73.6
102.8</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
3.3
</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2
5.3
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Looking at Ark State as I see +11 and think +8 is more accurate but extra rest for troy. Have to do more research though

Hard to look @ WKU getting only a TD as they cant score can FIU rebound ?

Thinking about pounding the hell out of the Zona and Zona State Under. Not sure how ASU gets past 17 pts really . Think some value in State but not enough to play as line should be at least -7 maybe more like -8.5 so 10 could be right if I am off slightily .

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Bunch of typos but think what it should say and it will make sense..lol

 

[pags11]

kyle,

completely agree with your thoughts on the ECU vs. Tulsa game...watched the UTEP vs. ECU game earlier today and found out that the UTEP team caught the stomach flu and was throwing up all over eachother on the way to the game that day...might explain ECU's demolition...not saying ECU wouldn't have covered the game but the team feeling like shit and having the shits couldn't have helped their cause...might cause bettors to look past ECU's last five mediocre performances before this week...Tulsa, on the other hand has played mainly road games in November and many have forgotten how truly potent they are at home...GL this week by the way bud...

 

[SportsNut]

Great stuff Pags so two teams who clearly use home field to their advantage . Think ECU's high score was like 28 away and as I said even vs a real solid UCF defense hung 49 as a low at home. Which look at what ECU did @ UCF think 13-10 OT win ...

GL:cheers:

 

[pags11]

thanks sportsnut...GL to you as well...

 

[scraps@midnight]

ULL -4-120

Still have some -4.5 's out there but alot of 5's as well . Probably a max play for me .

ULL has lost 3 straight and MTSU has won 3 straight but think huge difference in competition . ULL has played at Troy , at FAU and hosted OOC UTEP . MTSU hosted NTexas , played @ WKU and hosted ULMonroe .

Have this line anywhere from -6 to -7pts IMO.

MTSU is good at hanging around and competing vs teams from power conferences -Lville , Miss State , Kentucky , beat schizo Maryland at home by dominating TOP . They have a fluke win vs FAU we all remember that snore fest won on a Hail Mary at the end of regulation. beat ULMonroe by 3 but led the whole way and keep them at arms distance but didnt cover the -4 . Then the wins vs botomfeeders WKU who has no offense to speak of and Notexas who has no defense to speak of .

MTSU wasnt very competitive IMO @ FIU , @ ARK State or hosting Troy .

ULL beat FIU by 28 laying -12 at home , Ark State gave them a agme but they scored the last 2 TDs to win by 5 after a pick 6 and covered -3 , they played @ ULMonroe laying -1.5 winning by 9 pts , they beat OOC foe Kent State prettu comfortably laying -2 , they hung tough@ Kansas State and @ Ill losing by just 3 pts , only bad game ws the opener @So Miss where they got ran over and lost by 30 geting crushed on the ground...

Motivation ? MTSU is now 5-6 and with a 3 game losing streak so is ULL . Winner gets a bowl game and last for one ULL was 1970 !!!!!!

Suddenly penalties are an issue which hopefully is addressed .

MTSU solid vs the run so expecting a lower scoring game with MTSU dink and dunk offense ...

Maybe an under or ULL to Under 2 team teaser .....
:cheers:

was happy to see this sn. really not a fan of the card but did note this game as prolly my only large play this week (with tulsa starting to warm too). was hoping to see some discussion. agree with the recent sos driving the number and offering us some nice value on ull. seems they have lost a bit of their swagger since desormeaux's injury but still like them here allot. i would like to get carolina's thoughts on this one too...i may stalk him over in the hoops forum...great post sn.

 

[SportsNut]

was happy to see this sn. really not a fan of the card but did note this game as prolly my only large play this week (with tulsa starting to warm too). was hoping to see some discussion. agree with the recent sos driving the number and offering us some nice value on ull. seems they have lost a bit of their swagger since desormeaux's injury but still like them here allot. i would like to get carolina's thoughts on this one too...i may stalk him over in the hoops forum...great post sn.

ULL 42-28 (lost the under but still ended up on the game )

Good work Scraps . Havent had much time past few days to chat ...:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

Tipping my cap to the linesmakers this week.

None of these bets deserves my money unless a significant line move occurs.

good luck to the rest of you and lets win some money during the bowl season.