2008/09 NCAAF Bowl Games

[rochclone]

Week One 23-18-0 (+$166.00)
Week Two 28-14-1 (+$179.25)
Week Three 27-15-2 (+$177.10)
Week Four 28-17-0 (+$362.10)
Week Five 25-22-1 (-$151.35)
Week Six 32-19-1 (+$128.95)
Week Seven 20-29-2 (-$389.10)
Week Eight 24-27-1 (-$87.35)
Week Nine 27-24-0 (+$145.65)
Week Ten 20-30-0 (-$409.75)
Week Eleven 26-24-2 (-$10.65)
Week Twelve 25-25-0 (-$82.55)
Week Thirteen 24-20-2 (-$141.65)
Week Fourteen 25-15-1 (+$555.76)
Week Fifteen 5-9-0 (-$89.20)

Total: 359-308-13 (+$353.21) 53.75%

Today's Bowl Thoughts:

Eagle Bank Bowl: Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4)

Wake Forest comes in as the favorite in the re-match. Navy beat WF earlier this year 24-17 in a game that the Midshipmen controled on the ground. Navy ran for 292 yds on 59 carries in that game. Alot has been made of Riley Skinner throwing four interceptions in that game but to me the bigger issue is that Wake Forest could not run the ball against Navy in that game. 31 carries for 43 yds. Wake Forest's offensive line play was an issue throughout this year and I think it continues today. Navy is clearly the team with the bigger motivation as I don't think revenge really plays a factor here. Navy traditional has played very well in bowl games and Wake Forest is probably not motivated to play in D.C. for a bowl game.

I'll take the points here and the over.

Navy +3.0--$150
Over 44.0--$30


Other games:
Fresno State -2.5--$150
under 59.5--$30

Memphis +11.0--$150
under 55.0--$30

BYU +3.5--$150
over 59.5--$30

GL to all today.

 

[rochclone]

Brutal day yesterday...

0-4 in games

1-2-1 in over/under

Still think that Navy and BYU were the right plays but almostly got it wrong with Fresno State and Memphis.

Today's Play:

Southern Miss +4.5--$150

Under 54.5--$30

Would like to think that Southern Miss's improved defense in the last four games is not an aberration. They looked impressive against East Carolina and although Troy has played very well this year I think S.Miss and Troy are very similiar ball clubs. I look for a 24-21 or 21-17 type of game tonight.

GL to all.

 

[HUNT]

Good luck bro..plenty of time left.

 

[CrimsonK]

Good luck rochlone. 30 more bowls to make that back and more

 

[RetroVK]

i like s miss as well.

gl roch

 

[rochclone]

Bounce back with Southern Miss.

I think the proper play is on TCU tonight. Defense is just too tough, although I think that Boise State's defense is extremely underrated as well. However I think the overall team speed of the Horned Frogs is just too much and there schedule has certainly prepared them for this type of game.

TCU -3.0---$150
over 45.5--$50

Surprising play on the over but I can see a 31-20 or 27-20 type of game.

GL to all

 

[rochclone]

Tough game last night as I thought we might get lucky with a TCU win by four.

Making a more dedicated effort to cap the rest of the bowl games.

Notre Dam versus Hawaii tonight--

Notre Dame run offense versus Hawaii run defense--The Fighting Irish are averaging about 113 yds per game on the ground at 3.39 yds per carry. The Irish have struggled to run the ball consistently all year but have won all three games (Purdue, Washington and Navy) where they have ran for over 200 yds. The Hawaii run defense is giving up about 148 yds per game at 4.00 yds per carry. They have struggled to contain rushing attacks like Florida, Oregon State, Fresno State and Nevada. All of those teams rushed for over 200 yds against the Rainbows and FSU and Nevada rushed for over 300 yds. However in their last four games (New Mexico State, Idaho, Washington State and Cincy) they have only given up an average of 78.5 yds per game at 2.40 yds per carry. Obviously that is against some lesser opponents outside of Cincy.

Notre Dame pass offense versus Hawaii pass defense--Notre Dame is averaging 231 yds per game in the air and is completing 59% of their passes. However the passing game has not been the same since the Pittsburgh loss and the return of Floyd should help immensely. The Hawaii pass defense is giving up 204 yds per game at a 57% clip. Hawaii has picked off 15 passes and Notre Dame has thrown 17 Int's including 8 in the last four games.

Hawaii run offense versus ND's run defense--Hawaii runs the ball about 30 times a game and is currently averaging 99 yds per game at 3.28 yds per carry. Hawaii has run for over 150 yds just twice this year but won both of those games (at Fresno State and home against La. Tech) The Notre Dame rush defense is giving up 142 yds per game at 4.17 yds per carry. They have given up over 165 yds in all of their last 5 games. (Pittsburgh, B.C., Navy, Syracuse and USC).

Hawaii pass offense versus ND's pass defense--Hawaii is throwing for over 245 yds per game and is completing passes at a 59% clip. Alexander took over at QB mid-way through the year and has played immensely better. Hawaii has thrown 21 INT's this year although only two in the last five games. ND is giving up only 184 yds per game in the air. Opponents are completing only 53% of their passes and they have picked off 13 passes although only three passes in the last four games.

Intangibles--I think the nod for "who wants to be there" clearly goes to Hawaii. I have a feeling that Notre Dame could very easily sleepwalk through this game.

Prediction: I think Notre Dame will be able run the ball semi-successfully against Hawaii. However the offenses that Hawaii struggled with (Florida, Oregon State, Fresno State, Nevada) are all much better running teams than Notre Dame. I would think that Notre Dame with run the ball similiarly to Cincy and Hawaii only gave up 140 yds against the Bearcats. The major turning point should be the turnovers and ND has struggled down the stretch with turnovers. I think the turnovers will undoubtedly effect the Over/Under in this game and could lead to easy scores.

Hawaii 28-24 over Notre Dame

Hawaii +2.5--$150--Loss
Hawaii/ND over 49.0--$30--WON

Gl to all and let's get this turned around.


Adding: Florida Atlantic +7.0--$150--WON
FAU/C.Michigan over 66.5--$30--LOSS

 

[rochclone]

Well Bowl season has not been going as planned we were able to get a solid win with FAU last night.

Current Bowl Season Record--2-6-0 ATS
2-5-1 totals


Today's Plays:

West Virginia -1.5 (-115)--$150
WVU/NC Over 45.0--$30

Florida State -5.5--$150
FSU/Wisconsin Under 52.0--$30

California -8.0--$150
CAL/Miami Over 50.0--$30

Louisiana Tech +1.0--$150
LT/NIU Over 47.5--$30

GL to all.

 

[STEED]

:Cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

gl roch .. love the latech play

 

[rochclone]

Good win on La Tech last night...still have yet to hit the spread/total combo on a bowl this year.

Today's Plays:

NC State +7.0 (-115) $150
Under 56.0--$30

Missouri -12.0
Under 66.0--$30

Prediction NC State 28 Rutgers 27

Prediction Missouri 38 Northwestern 21

GL to all

 

[rochclone]

3-1 yesterday.....Missouri seemed very disinterested in that game. I hope people saw that even a horrible Big 12 defense like Missouri was able to keep a pumped up Northwestern in check....23 points including OT.

Totals in Bowl Season

ATS 5-9-0

OVER/UNDER 5-8-1

Still some work to do.

Humanitarian Bowl--

Nevada -2.5--$150
Over 58.5--$30

I look for Nevada, much like Northwestern, to be the more motivated team this afternoon. Typically the ACC teams underperform in Boise because they aren't exactly thrilled to be there. That could spell trouble for a team that is as inconsistent as this Maryland team. Nevada should be able run on a Maryland defense that gave up over 170 yds on the ground to both B.C. and Florida State. Nevada features two 1,000 yard rushers (Taua and Kaepernick). Additionally Kaepernick has thrown 19 TD's to only 5 interceptions. Nevad should take care of the ball and hopefully the Wolfpack who have forced 16 INT's this year can come away with a few TO's. Maryland should be able to score through the air.

Nevada 38 Maryland 28


Houston Bowl

Rice -3.0 (+100)--$150
Over 74.0--$30

Rice gets to a bowl game for the second time in three years and it could be argued that they are playing the best football out of any C-USA team. This Rice Owl squad moves the ball primarily through the air and has won their last six football games. During that period of time they outscored their opponents on average 44 to 30. During this win streak the Owls have scored at least 35 points in every game. A bowl game in Houston should keep this Owl team inspired. Additionally Chase Clement (SR) who has thrown for over 3800 yds this year ALONG WITH 41 TDS AND ONLY 7 INTS with be playing in his final game with Jamil Dillard (SR). Dillard is averaging over 100 yds a game in receiving and has caught 19 TD's this year. His counterpart in the receving game is James Casey who has over 1200 yds and 100 catches this year.

The Rice defense obviously concerns me but they have forced 14 INTS this year and hopefully the motivation of playing in a bowl game will carry them. But it should be a high scoring shootout.

Rice 45 W. Michigan 35


Holiday Bowl

Oklahoma State is a great team they just happen to play in a conference with three other Top 10 teams. OSU is a very balanced attack in the typical pass-happy Big 12. The Cowboys average 260 yds on the ground and 233 through the air. Kendall Hunter is a stud on the ground and Dez Bryant has amazing play-making ability. Additionally Brandon Pettigrew is a very underrated TE.
Defensively OSU is good against the run. Giving up only 124 yds per game on the ground. For being labeled a horrible defense they have only giving up over 30 points three times....Houston, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. All three teams almost exclusively pass the ball. With Oregon they will see a team that likes to run the ball. And I think OSU will be able to have similiar success as they did with Texas.

Everyone is calling for a shootout tonight in the Holiday Bowl and despite the history of the bowl I don't see it happening.

Oklahoma State 35 Oregon 28

Gl to all tonight.

 

[rochclone]

Tough loss yesterday on Oklahoma State if Dez Bryant doesn't go down I think they win that game.

Bowl Season Total 6-11-0 ATS
7-9-1 Over/Under

Today's Plays:

Houston -4.0--$150
Over 64.0--$30

Pittsburgh +2.0 (-115)--$150
Under 51.5--$30

Vanderbilt +3.5--$150
Under 40.5--$30

Kansas -9.5--$150
Over 58.5--$30

Georgia Tech -4.0--$150
Over 52.5--$30

GL to all.

Already locked in Iowa at -3.5 and Under 43.5 for tomorrow but I will be watching the Shon Greene situation closely.

 

[rochclone]

Good day yesterday going 3-2 in O/U and 3-2 ATS

Bowl Season record 9-13-0 ATS 10-11-1 O/U

Today's Plays:

Outback Bowl:

Iowa -3.5--$150
Under 43.5--$30


Capitol One Bowl:

Georgia -7.5--$150
Over 55.5--$30

Gator Bowl:

Nebraska +2.0 (-115)--$150
Over 56.0--$30


Rose Bowl:

USC -9.0 (-105)--$150
Under 45.0--$30

Orange Bowl:

Cincy -2.0--$150
Under 42.0--$30


GL to all.

 

[rochclone]

Great Day yesterday 2-3 O/U but 4-1 ATS with the only loss being Cincy.

Bowl Season Total:

O/U 12-14-1

ATS 13-14-0 Heck of a climb back after the 2-7-0 start.


Today's Plays:

Texas Tech -4.0--$150
Over 65.5--$30

E. Carolina -3.0 (-105)--$150
Under 42.0--$30

Utah +9.5--$150
Over 45.0--$30

Gl to all.

 

[rochclone]

Sorry about the late post as we are into the 2nd Quarter and scored tied at 10-10.

UCONN -6.5--$150
Under 51.0--$30

Here is a good idea, quit fumbling the damn punt.

 

[rochclone]

Fiesta Bowl Time

Texas -9.0--$150
Under 52.0--$30

Texas 31 Ohio State 14