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BCS Week 4 Analysis from CFN.com

BCS Analysis - Week Four


By Pete Fiutak
Posted Nov 5, 2006

Breaking down the top ten in the week four BCS rankings

</B>BCS Rankings | Computer Rankings[SIZE=-1]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1]
[/SIZE][/FONT][SIZE=-1]In week four of the BCS rankings, the big move was the gap with the difference between the two and three spots tightening up considerably. Florida moved up and Texas, despite being hated by the computers, is now in realistic range to get into the title game by winning out. Of course, the big talk will be about Louisville, who appears to have smooth sailing to the national title game by winning out. [/SIZE]Boise State is 14th, still two spots out of an automatic spot, and Notre Dame is ninth, one spot out of an automatic invite.

Don’t forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers as the year goes on, but once again, the two polls will be the biggest factors.

The Big Winners: Louisville (5th to 3rd), LSU (17th to 12th), Wake Forest (24th to 19th), Oregon State (28th to 24th)
The Big Losers: West Virginia (3rd to 10th), Clemson (19th to 27th), Washington State (23rd to 31st)

1. Ohio State [SIZE=-1]Last Week's BCS Ranking: 1[/SIZE]
Ohio State didn't budge a lick even after a lifeless win at Illinois. Can the Buckeye lose to Michigan and still get into the national title? It might be tough after the gap closed between the third and fourth teams and the number two spot.
predicted wins: at Northwestern, Michigan
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 12-0
predicted bowl: BCS Championship

2. Michigan [SIZE=-1]Last Week's BCS Ranking: 2[/SIZE]If Michigan plays at Indiana like it played against Ball State, it'll lose. The computers are still in love with the Maize and Blue with five of the six ranking them in the top spot. It remains an easy equation: beat Indiana, beat Ohio State, play for the natioanl title.
predicted wins: at Indiana
predicted losses: at Ohio State
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]Louisville Last Week's BCS Ranking: 5Louisville's everyone's hot team after whacking West Virginia, but can the defense hold up against anyone with a pulse? Yeah, the team destroys everyone in Papa John's, but it'll take a win at Rutgers this week to all but cement the number three spot. The game at Pitt doesn't appear to be that big a trap anymore. The computers hated the Cards last week, and love them now ranked third or fourth by all six.
predicted wins: South Florida, Connecticut, at Pitt
predicted losses: at Rutgers
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Orange Bowl[/SIZE]

4. [SIZE=-1]Florida Last Week's BCS Ranking: 4Florida's not looking pretty by any stretch, but this should be the best of the one-loss teams when all is said and done. Not that it's in the SEC Championship game, there's yet another chance at a huge win that would impress computers and humans alike. Now the Gators need Louisville to lose to get into the top three and in range for sneak into the number two spot after the Michigan-Ohio State game.
predicted wins: South Carolina, Western Carolina, at Florida State, at SEC Championship
predicted losses: none
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: BCS Championship Game[/SIZE]

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1]Texas Last Week's BCS Ranking: 7
The computers continue to despise the Longhorns. Never mind that they just blasted Oklahoma State, West Virginia is the only team in the top ten ranked lower by the non-humans, but that could change over the final few weeks. Don't be shocked if they make a huge late jump once all the formulas are figured out.
predicted losses: at Kansas State, Texas A&M, Big 12 Championship
predicted record: 12-1
predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl

6. Auburn [SIZE=-1]Last Week's BCS Ranking: [/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]6[/SIZE]Auburn needs to somehow get into the SEC title game to have any shot of being in the national title discussion. If Arkansas beats Tennessee and LSU, forget about it. Even so, an at-large bid is still possible by winning out and creeping up the rankings. Get into the top five, and the Tigers have a shot at getting into a big money game. Shock of shocks, beating Arkansas State didn't exactly excite the computers.
predicted wins:
Georgia, at Alabama
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl[SIZE=-1]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]USC Last Week's BCS Ranking: 8After looking like the national title chances were all gone after the loss to Oregon State, the Trojans could be right back in it with several chances for splashy wins over the next few weeks against Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA. If they win in blowouts and earn style points with the humans, Glendale is still possible.
predicted wins: Oregon, California, Notre Dame, at UCLA
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Rose Bowl[/SIZE]

8. [/SIZE]
[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1][SIZE=-1]California Last Week's BCS Ranking: 10
Cal keeps moving up and up and up getting more and more respect from the humans and starting to creep into shouting distance of the number two spot. Interestingly enough, the Bears moved down in the computers and moved up in the overall rankings. It all comes down to the USC game, while it wouldn't hurt if UCLA started beating up some teams and making more of an impact.
predicted wins: at Arizona, Stanford
predicted losses: at USC
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Holiday Bowl[/SIZE]

9. Notre Dame Last Week's BCS Ranking: 9The Irish just can't make a dent standing still while Cal moves up. The computers knocked Charlie and the boys down a little bit, while beating North Carolina did next to nothing to excite the humans. USC needs to blow out teams impressively over the next few weeks to make the showdown in L.A. mean something for the Irish. While the national title might be out of the question, getting into the top eight for an automatic BCS spot is all but guaranteed by winning out.
predicted wins: at Air Force, Army
predicted losses: at USC
predicted record: 10-2
predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl

10. West Virginia Last Week's BCS Ranking: 4The loss to Louisville this week ruined the dream season, and it likely crushed any hope of getting into the BCS. The computers have no interest in the Mountaineers with only one ranking them in the top 12, while it'll be next to impossible to get ahead of a slew of one-loss teams.
predicted wins: at Pitt, South Florida, Rutgers
predicted losses: None
predicted record: 11-1
predicted bowl: Gator Bowl

In Range
11. Arkansas
12. LSU
13. Rutgers
14. Boise State
15. Wisconsin
16. Tennessee
17. Oklahoma
18. Georgia Tech
19. Wake Forest
20. Oregon[/SIZE]
Hate to say it but I would like Boise St to win out and stay outside the Top 12. They don't deserve to play Texas or whoever plays in the Fiesta Bowl.
all boise has to do is be in the top 16, as long as they stay ahead of a bcs conference champ(ACC).....and they are there:smiley_acbe:
rjurewitz said:
Hate to say it but I would like Boise St to win out and stay outside the Top 12. They don't deserve to play Texas or whoever plays in the Fiesta Bowl.

just like utah didn't deserve to play Pitt 2 years ago?.......and the utes waxed 'em

you never know until they play on the field :cheers:
phball said:
just like utah didn't deserve to play Pitt 2 years ago?.......and the utes waxed 'em

you never know until they play on the field :cheers:

Sorry bud. I rode Utah all year long, they were top 6, and I made money off Utah against Pitt too.

Most of the people here knew Utah was the superior team.

Boise does not deserve to be on the same field as Texas for the Fiesta Bowl. Talk about destroying a BCS bowl.
phball said:
just like utah didn't deserve to play Pitt 2 years ago?.......and the utes waxed 'em

you never know until they play on the field :cheers:
Thats a terrible example cuz everyone knew Pitt was a joke coming out of the Big East. There was a lot of controversy that year surrounding the Big East's automatic bid. I believe Pitt was barely a top 25 team if memory serves me correct. I was pissed that Utah got matched up with Pitt cuz I knew the reaction was gonna be "see, Utah won a BCS bowl, the mid-majors deserve BCS bids blah blah blah blah".
but a mid-major undefeated does deserve a bcs game. whoever it is.

boise would up near where utah was if it weren't for the stupid preseason polls.... i believe utah started in the top 18 or so and boise was around 30th to start this year

maybe texas beats them....if it happens, but my $$ depending on the line will be on boise

and yes Pitt was a joke, but is THE only example ever
Boise might stay in the number if Texas is not motivated to play a good, but not great Boise team.

But if Texas is #3 and L-ville is playing Ohio St, look for a statement game from Texas to show that they shoulda played Ohio St a second time for all the marbles.
boise as much as i like them is about as good as a state champion texas high school. they aren't fast and the games are a ot sower than in the big conferences. a team ike texas,usc,wvu,fla,michigna, etc would ro by 17+. they proved that last year in the opening of the seson getting crushed by uga
TroyStacks said:
they proved that last year in the opening of the seson getting crushed by uga

omg, is anyone going to let 1 game go, that was soooooo long ago. SEC :blahblah:
that was the first time they ever payed anybody. i root for boise every game i reay ike them a lot but they aren't a top 20 team at all
and thats why boise beat oregon state by 4 TD's(yes 4 and that was this year)......which hammered southern cal....that score was much closer than that game actually was
I just had a sudden thought and I wanted to make sure my understanding was correct. I know there are the 5 BCS bowls this year with the extra one being at the Fiesta Bowl again for the national championship. Just to clarify, they never adopted the whole "plus one" idea right? That being the idea where the two teams to play in the national championship wouldn't be determined until after those initial 4 BCS bowls were played out. They just simply added another game right? Just wanted to make sure cuz if I'm mistaken and they are actually doing the "plus one" then that makes all this current talk irrelevant.
no plus one....ten teams in bcs games this year

but they are playin' the fiesta and a championship game(bcs 1 vs 2) in arizona
phball said:
and thats why boise beat oregon state by 4 TD's(yes 4 and that was this year)......which hammered southern cal....that score was much closer than that game actually was
Big deal, USC is overrated, Oregon State and hte Pac 10 in general aren't that great. Oregon State didn't hammer them either. If you wanted to do A>B, B>C, A>C comparisons you can do that all across college football. The point is though, that when you play in a real conference, you are tested almost every week. You will never play any teams such at Utah State or New Mexico State. When one of the top teams in your conference is San Jose State, then there is a problem. A team like Mississippi State or Baylor, while certainly not better than Boise State, would at least be middle of the pack in the WAC. But in the SEC or Big 12, they won't win many games but if a team sleeps on em and they happen to be on their game, you're in for a fight. Just ask Alabama. Its that much more difficult when you have to gear up for games every single week as opposed to really having to get up for a game once or twice a year. This also applies to Louisville and it definitely is applicable to Boise State.

I hate to burst your bubble, but the blue field, Ian Johnson (who might start for half the teams in the Big 12), and the crappy WAC teams can only go so far. The difference in the level of athletes between Texas and Boise State is astounding. Yes, I've watched Boise multiple times. Zabransky alone will do that team in against a top notch team. The field of players that Boise recruits from wouldn't be able to compete with the 2nd tier of Texas high school players. It looks like this UT-BSU matchup is gonna happen and it will be embarrassing for BSU if UT brings their A game. If UT comes out and doesn't act like they care BSU can cover what will probably be at least a 2 TD spread but a C effort from UT is still good for probably a 7-10 point victory on sheer talent alone.
Nevada has a shot at beating Boise. I'm hoping it happens. Otherwise the line for this game will be at least 3 TDs.
i will take boise as a dog against any team from the big 12 or sec all day long....especially if its 2-3 TD's, i like $$$..... and texas this year can be beat .... if your out of the big 12, shit A & M might beat them

and nevada does have a chance to beat bsu....but very slim chance :drink:
BCS analysis from HornFans:

The Link

Great weekend on the field for Texas and its increasing NC chances, but some strange developments as the BCS math comes out today. Not too surprised by the human polls, actually may have come out a little better than we could have hoped.

I'm honestly beginning to get concerned about Texas lack of progress to date in the computers. The Massey and Sagarin (elo chess) rankings, in particular, are terrible. You'll note on my analysis that Texas' SOS year-to-date is superior to many one-loss teams that are consistently outranking Texas in several computers (i.e., USC, ND, Wisconsin, etc). It's also bizarre that two-loss LSU and Tennessee are also outranking Texas in some instances.

My analysis ignores Division I-AA games, and perhaps that is creating more headwind for Texas' SOS as it competes with other teams in the computers.

I still believe Texas is in very good shape if Louisville and Florida each lose a game. The unexpectedly weak trend in the computers may mean a resurgent USC could pose a slight risk to Texas if they win out. I remain unworried about ND.

Please let me know if you see any errors in the math or flaws in the logic.