2.5

My wonderful nite:

Sixers +1 (SIA) {5units} +5.00 {100-98}
Over 192.5 Philly {2units}NO PLAY waiting till half tunred into Over 98 -120 {2units} +2.00 {58-51}
Sonics +8 {3units} -3.30 (118-108)ML +300 {1/4units} -0.25
Under 219 {4units} -4.40 (226)
Under 209 Indy {3units} -3.30 (211)
Hawks +5.5 {5units} -5.50 (90-83) ML +195 {1unit} -1.00
Under 200 {2units} +2.00 (173)
Bulls +115 {5units} -5.00
Kings -5 {4units} +4.00

1st H:
Suns -4.5 {2units} -2.20
Over 112 Suns {3units} -3.30 (61-51)

2nd H :
Bulls -2.5 -120 {3units} +3.00
Suns -8.5 {2units} +2.00
Over 111.5 Suns {5units} -5.50 (110)
NO -1-120 {@units} +2.00
 
Last edited:
You'll turn it around SN, don't worry. GL with yer plays :shake:

always nice to discuss things with you, even if it's things like this, not necessarily games.
 
Satyr said:
He had to know what exactly? The Pacers tie it up at 79 with 4 mins on the clock and they lose by exactly 8. Job well done yes, but why do you say there was no value in Indiana then? ONE POINT here and there. Game tied with 4 mins, equal game we're talking about. And I'm not saying purely stats here, but EVEN stats can back it up: Indiana shot 42.5%, Detroit 37%.

Battle on the glass? 46-41 Pacers. Ok Indiana had 14 TO, Detroit only 8. But that's not the point. +7,5 wasn't a bait. It was a legit line, and I took the points. Your sentence:


suggests like the Pistons were the play and the linesmaker knew it? he did his job well, determined the line correctly, pin pointed it to put it that way. But why couldn't you say Pacers were value? Surely not just because they lost?
I capped the game, and capped it right, since I watched it afterwards and nothing out of the projected had occurred.

Unlike f.e. Dallas team total over 115 vs Memphis, that was me doing a lousy capping job. Nets in Orlando: again, wrong call. Etc...

:shake:
Click to expand...

Thats the point if I knew I would have pulled the trigger on Det . Its there job and they have more resources then we do. We use second hand info to make decisions generally they are dealing with firsthand info. The whole flaw is again your looking at the game itself rather then prgame judgement. I am sure if you go back to your thread I mentioned this line was odd...

I am saying they knew the Pistons was the play that day. The line made no sense , it wnet higher after the option and I know the betting pcts had heavier Indy backers and I am sure they had more money on Indiana . Maybe he knew Indy was going to be chasing Det all day and playing from behind...like SA did @ Pho fading down the stretch...thats how games end. A team gets up 4 the other teams a bad shot fouls , it 5 or 6 , another rushed shot and that tied game that was 4 is now 8 in a matter of 2 minutes....

I absolutely agree that you capped it well but I wouldnt say right. Cause there was clearly something funny about. Winning is about more then just handicapping. If it was simply the handicapping aspect many more people would be successful at I think...just there are intangibles in sports the same goes for picking winners....or avoiding losers.

Nothing you did was fundamentally wrong except ignoring the caution sign...go back to that Sunday and your thread...lets see if I commented on it:shake:
 
This is all I said on a day I guess I wasnt around much....

Good Luck Satyr. Sorry about those Nuggets last nite . Just as I type this SA takes the lead. I was with ya On Cle and Over. Had some LAL but got involved heavy with SA at half...

Wish you well with Indy I agree just wondering about the line seems to generous and scares me....good call with yesterday...

Spurs up with 1.3 GL!
<!-- / message -->
 
what was the indicator for the caution? To you personally? What is usually a caution sign for you to say the line is odd, they're luring you/me in?

If they knew Pistons were the play, with confidence, then the only explanation is that it's doctored/fixed. The game.

And SN, I am watching the PRE-GAME judgment. I am comparing my pre-game thoughts with the game, the only way I could determine if I got it right. I don't think Detroit needed to win by 25 in order for me to say "I was wrong and off", but come on. Tied game? 4 mins on the clock. Ok that doesn't win money, at least it didn't that way, but for the last 4 seasons that (my estimations) have brought me profit. Only long run counts my friend. What we're discussing here is if one can cap the game right, be on the right side and lose. I think yes.

Doesn't mean one GOT IT RIGHT, the outcome, because he obviously didn't, and I have already explained what I think about the luck factor (again, on the long run), but it COULD mean one took the bet.

You know when you say (we all do it from time to time) "it's either Bobcats ML or no bet", and the odds on Bobcats are huge? Meaning you are accepting the fact it could easily lose by more than 9 (which is the spread for example), but you're still giving a shot on the ML. And if you take the points, you will lose the value and be forced to increase your stakes in order to generate profit.
 
I guess what I am trying to say its about observations. Understanding how and hwy lines moves. Understanding how teams play or how there games unfold. What a MORON I am for not playing Seattle 1st H today. The Sonics fall apart just about every 2nd H its nothing knew. So maybe some decent handicapping on that game which produced a loser missed only one angle. That one angle was the difference between getting paid and not though....maybe paid twice.....

Another example from tonite....

Houston leads 50-30 at half. I think that was somewhat of a public under. A total that is where it should be has alot of public backing cause they just expect low scoring and dont know what the correct number is. Anyway 20 pt leads that get extended to 30 tend to mean ....unders I think u would agree. This is now the 2nd time in about a week Hou was hoem smoking a team and had 100 pts of wiggle room in the 2nd H and the game went over late in the 4th Q.....I know this off the top of myhead.....go check Hou vs Philly. The Rockets smoked them at half believe last wed...anyway the game wnet over final minute of a blowout...go check back and see it was a public under which moved down from the open....

So it found a way to go over. The point is if you see this trend yo know you should play the 2nd H over if you are uninvolved Or if you have the game under or maybe just play Houston 1st H under....

Its about recognizing patterns......everything works in patterns.....
 
Satyr said:
what was the indicator for the caution? To you personally? What is usually a caution sign for you to say the line is odd, they're luring you/me in?

If they knew Pistons were the play, with confidence, then the only explanation is that it's doctored/fixed. The game.

And SN, I am watching the PRE-GAME judgment. I am comparing my pre-game thoughts with the game, the only way I could determine if I got it right. I don't think Detroit needed to win by 25 in order for me to say "I was wrong and off", but come on. Tied game? 4 mins on the clock. Ok that doesn't win money, at least it didn't that way, but for the last 4 seasons that (my estimations) have brought me profit. Only long run counts my friend. What we're discussing here is if one can cap the game right, be on the right side and lose. I think yes.

Doesn't mean one GOT IT RIGHT, the outcome, because he obviously didn't, and I have already explained what I think about the luck factor (again, on the long run), but it COULD mean one took the bet.

You know when you say (we all do it from time to time) "it's either Bobcats ML or no bet", and the odds on Bobcats are huge? Meaning you are accepting the fact it could easily lose by more than 9 (which is the spread for example), but you're still giving a shot on the ML. And if you take the points, you will lose the value and be forced to increase your stakes in order to generate profit.
Click to expand...


What makes a line odd? I always make my own line but cant recall wht I would have made that one probably like -5. What makes it odd? A high line opened 6.5 going higher to 7.5 ....what makes it odder ?? The fact there is more Indy bets then Det and you can check that.....

I am not saying they knew with undying confidence. Confidence enough they didnt mind having Pacer money at +7.... and 7 is a key number in basket ball....alot of 1-3 games become 5 pt finals and alot 3 -5 pt games become 7 pt finals......putting that above 7 crossed a key number.....

Nothing to do with handicapping . The pregame judgement is the line move......you want two for tonite maybe 3 .......heat moving to 10 and total to 196 and the suns when there PGs are both OUT or Suns and actually you really cant include the Suns because Camby was GT but that sure is one crazy move from 6.5 to 9 when yo have to figure Camby doesnt play from the getgo......and who is on the comeback trail..


With the MLs thats a great point. Some teams play certain ways...they either lose by more then the spread or regardless of spread win outright.....thats something you can pickup on and utilize....
 
Believe staying away really dont have a side. Dont know much about Loyola except they already lost by 30....Zaga playing well but I would question the Zags motivation here after destroying them already. So can the cruise and win by 13?? I simply have no idea.....
 
ontime23 said:
anything on this sac/no 2nd h I have to think about the under
Click to expand...

The only thing I dislike about the under is 93 is low and makes it 206 so not that high really. Actually think NO could get back in it......which would make me lean over for the dog to comeback...

entertaining NO -1.5 now...
 
Feel free to fire away at me Killa...I dont think I have done anything but type for 3 hours (and lose money with bad decisions)!
 
SportsNut said:
What makes a line odd? I always make my own line but cant recall wht I would have made that one probably like -5. What makes it odd? A high line opened 6.5 going higher to 7.5 ....what makes it odder ?? The fact there is more Indy bets then Det and you can check that.....
Click to expand...

Same thing (or similar) can be applied to Utah tonight. I don't know any more but somewhat 70% is on Utah tonight (or more) yet the line went from -3,5 to -1,5. Was I scared off? Should I have been? And why? Ok, they got info firsthand but if I'll be scared off every time the line moves then the books will try to abuse it, and create fake line moves, to cause confusion and make people second guess their bets. No matter if Utah win or lose I am ready to back my bet with the reasoning I had before the game. That's why I won't wait until the game is over as I post this, rather post it NOW, everything still possible.
So in the end it all comes down to experience, estimating the game/bet right, and making the right call. We can agree to that. And of course patterns.

Good talkin to ya SN :shake: :smiley_acbe: :cheers:
 
Not for me though. I dont see it as the same. First you really dont know about betting pcts... I find it so hard to believe that 70% are on Utah. I also felt this line should have been a PK so it moved accordingly in my eyes. The Piston line I thought should have been -5 at best and was 7.5....this line moved the way I felt it should its more a matter of do you trust the splits you see on-line

So its not the same as that Det game...

Here is more why your reasoning is wrong( and dont take me saying wrong to heart..incorrect I dont knwo the proper word)

LAL opened -5.5 went to -4.5 on 74%
Was opened -8 went to -7 on 61%
Utah opened 3 to -2.5 on 67%
Houston went from 6.5 to 5.5 on 45

So all four favs got bet down and three had huge majorities on the fav BUT The favs all covered......

This is not what I was referencing...partly cause I find it hard to believe the splist were so drastic in favor of Wash , Utah and LAL

So in the end it all comes down to experience, estimating the game/bet right, and making the right call. We can agree to that. And of course patterns....

AGREED......
 
To me the moves down were logical and the Pistons move ws illogical just as I pointed out the Heat and over were. How do start your 3rd string PG and see the line go higher and the total go higher? Your gonna play better with Quinn at PG then Payton and score more with an inexperienced ball handler....thats illogical and thats what I am getting at...
 
I had 5 GAMES that Lost by 2 points or less.....that cost me a nearly 34 unit swing! One simple basket allows me to hit both Suns Half overs , push the Sonics and push the Indy under and win the Hawks....I still may have solid points but made the wrong choice....
 
SN, you play so many plays that of course you are going to have some close wins or loses, and there will be a lot of ups and downs. In betting basketball, truly anything can happen. That's why I love to bet it! GL on the year...
 
take it with a pinch of salt since I didn't check the %, someone on the board (here or another forum) said there were 70% on Utah. Never checked it though so it might not be true. Again I found a post on "the other forum" saying 73% is on Utah.

Again, why PK? I know your reasons, letdown spot for Utah, guys jumping in for Nocioni, and Bulls playing well lately winning two on the road, plus the revenge spot.

But look at the fundamentals, no way would the line here be PK, if you ask me. Utah's home numbers opposed to Chicago road numbers. Plus, Utah are NOT b2b, they have shown revenge games for their opponents don't harm them/meaning no letdown spot there(3:0 v PHX), coming off two big wins, Sloan is experienced, doesn't let his team get caught up into thinking we beat everyone we are the best now, he pushes them and pushes them hard, plus Chicago are playing 3rd in 4 nights, won 2 against mediocre teams with some lackluster performances. Why PK? I just don't agree, sorry.


Btw, I'm not taking it to heart (nothing from this discussion really, we're just discussing to learn each other's points of view after all, not necessarily force the other to change his), but does that mean that line movement is the mother of all indicators? meaning you just watch the lines, and you can hit 100% winners? You can't hit 70% by watching the lines, let alone 100%. It all comes down to mixing it all up into a melting pot of indicators, information, b2b, injuries, match-ups, lines, h2h, etc... after you process it you can determine what to bet. Winning formula as in ONE formula doesn't exist.
 
Agreed Believe. Sort of funny it happened that way though. Ties into the topic of the thread the losing play is the wrong play....I lost 5 by 2 or less and it could have significantly changed my nite but I called the wrong play(s).. 1,2 or 12 the losing side is wrong IMO....
 
not trying to push it now, since Utah obviously won, could've been Chicago as well, note that I'm not talking about the game itself, PURELY PRIOR to the game.

:shake:
 
I havent been reading everything in here. But I do believe Chicago was a wise play. It didnt win, because not ALL wise plays win. If Chicago plays just a half decent 1H, they probably win the game.
 
SportsNut said:
Agreed Believe. Sort of funny it happened that way though. Ties into the topic of the thread the losing play is the wrong play....I lost 5 by 2 or less and it could have significantly changed my nite but I called the wrong play(s).. 1,2 or 12 the losing side is wrong IMO....
Click to expand...
of course it's wrong. I didn't say it was "right", in terms of a winning one, the one. Just saying since we only have pre-game thoughts when we cap and even during in game bets you can't bet on the 1st half after it's finished, so we have t o estimate it right. And sometimes you can get it right, be on the right track to put it that way and still lose. If that combines with a 1-2-3 point loser these are the hardest losses to handle. Sorry to hear about your night man. :shake:

You'll bounce back.
 
BeLIEve811 said:
I havent been reading everything in here. But I do believe Chicago was a wise play. It didnt win, because not ALL wise plays win. If Chicago plays just a half decent 1H, they probably win the game.
Click to expand...

I can relate to that, as I think the same about Utah @ PK which I took (almost PK that is), to me it was a wise play and it would've been even if it lost. Not because I'm some stubborn SOB :D but because I was confident in my reasoning and those were my estimations. I can always let someone else, smarter than me, influence my thinking, of course. But in the end I'm making the call, as we all do with our money.


:shake:
 
Btw, I'm not taking it to heart (nothing from this discussion really, we're just discussing to learn each other's points of view after all, not necessarily force the other to change his), but does that mean that line movement is the mother of all indicators? meaning you just watch the lines, and you can hit 100% winners? You can't hit 70% by watching the lines, let alone 100%. It all comes down to mixing it all up into a melting pot of indicators, information, b2b, injuries, match-ups, lines, h2h, etc... after you process it you can determine what to bet. Winning formula as in ONE formula doesn't exist.


I dont really like saying the wrong to others especially over an internet forum. If you knew in 'real life' I am an easy guy to get along and try to let others speak there views. Might make sound weak but thats me. I think its a matter of curiousity to not think I am right and you are wrong. Thats why I included that to you and anyone really.

Thats sort of been point there is no system or right approach to do this. We all have indivual approaches that work for them. My point wasnt really line moves are an indicator of something. That you should know where a line should be and if it moves oddly or isnt close to your number ask yourself why?? Is there something I am missing type deal?? Sometimes I just say hey they got this line wrong and others I say I am missing something.

The 3 favs that got bet down supposedly with high %s on the fav well I just figured out in talking you. I didnt realize to just now that I had beat all three of those dogs Seattle , Atlanta and Chi . So if those lines moves were indicators I sure fucked up and missed them.

Again what I am talking about is something you cant legitimize or figure out with simple logic. In all seriousness how is the Heat line going higher when you Chris Quinn at PG?

So I never said and hopefully didnt imply that you should wager on line moves. I am saying if something doesnt make sense and it seems like your getting value then think twice.............

Now again I agree with your closing sentence....there isnt one factor....just like the OT factor...other factors can hurt you depending on how a game plays out...look how close the Jazz total came to going over when it looked dead in the water with 3 to play...Bulls made a run and late FTS and 3's put it 1 pt short...<!-- / message -->
 
Satyr said:
of course it's wrong. I didn't say it was "right", in terms of a winning one, the one. Just saying since we only have pre-game thoughts when we cap and even during in game bets you can't bet on the 1st half after it's finished, so we have t o estimate it right. And sometimes you can get it right, be on the right track to put it that way and still lose. If that combines with a 1-2-3 point loser these are the hardest losses to handle. Sorry to hear about your night man. :shake:

You'll bounce back.
Click to expand...

Wasnt saying you did.....just saying funny how on a nite we are talking about this Ilose 5 narrow plays...thats all.....had zero to do with you
 
you know, I knew this would happen, we would be the only two left writing in the end, the only two psychos that can't stop typing once they start. Ok and a few others, but I don't think they're online now :D.

off to bed now, you know what's crappy when you're an European NBA fanatic? late games finish at 5:30 AM :D.

Now 6:15 AM, so I'm pretty much beat. My gf should wake me up anyhow. Btw, she was so crazy today cause I had forgotten my mobile in the other room (it was on silent mode) and she wanted to reach me, tried for hours and hours, eventually she registered on CTG to send me a PM hahahaha

She knew I was going to be there HAHA. Insane. :D I'm the only member here whose gf had CHASED HIM DOWN to here :D:D :D hahaha :smiley_acbe:
 
take it with a pinch of salt since I didn't check the %, someone on the board (here or another forum) said there were 70% on Utah. Never checked it though so it might not be true. Again I found a post on "the other forum" saying 73% is on Utah.

Again, why PK? I know your reasons, letdown spot for Utah, guys jumping in for Nocioni, and Bulls playing well lately winning two on the road, plus the revenge spot.

But look at the fundamentals, no way would the line here be PK, if you ask me. Utah's home numbers opposed to Chicago road numbers. Plus, Utah are NOT b2b, they have shown revenge games for their opponents don't harm them/meaning no letdown spot there(3:0 v PHX), coming off two big wins, Sloan is experienced, doesn't let his team get caught up into thinking we beat everyone we are the best now, he pushes them and pushes them hard, plus Chicago are playing 3rd in 4 nights, won 2 against mediocre teams with some lackluster performances. Why PK? I just don't agree, sorry.

These sites with betting % I just find ithard to believe. I simply dont understand how 78% of the people are betting NJ or LAL but maybe they are....I dont know. I am just saying I dont trust the sites persay...

Why a PK? I thought the past 2 games had Utah grossly undervalued. You go from +5 to +11 to -3. That team they were +5 to I see Chi as very simliar to... I see SA as -3 to Chi on neutral court and had SA as -2 in that Utah game.....so it was something to do with lines I had for previous games....this line went down to 1.5 but closed at 2.5. In round about terms if I feel SA should be -2 in Utah and I have SA as 2 or 3 betters then Chi I make the game @ PK. I also factor in a NJ team that I see as slightily below Chi as -3 and losing SU...not that -3 was bad but Chi is at leats 2 pts better then NJ....really highest I can see this lookng at recent numbers is -1 . Then I factor in situation and stuff...Chi rising up or Utah letting down...blah , blah , blah...

So yes Bulls have road woes but I also say people seem to forget they are generally overvalued on the road cause of there home play. Here I thought that wasnt happenening more devauling cause of teh 2nd H vs Portland. ...Utah is tough at home but it really hasnt shown lately nut I had them 3-4 SU last 7 losing to teams like Miami , Mem and NJN who are all worse IMO then Chi. I thought after pulling 2 big upsets maybe Utah would get a couple of bad bounces ...didnt like Williams play of late and he played well. Didnt think Okur would matchup well vs the bigger Bulls forwards...and he only 10 hd but hit every shot down the stretch....

The rest situation doesnt make of a difference with me. The lackluster play...?? somewhat agree though Seattle beat Utah and Port was only the 2nd H after they probably wnet to the locker room thinking game over....

As for Utah I just dont agree they are consistent...they have been up and down all year before beating SA and PHO they lost to NJ and @ NO plus Memphis at home. They squeaked by Denver who is doing what exactly??? There level of play generally wasnt impressing me and I thought / implied that in a quick revenge spot Chi should play well. Utah is a terrible fav thi syear...

Thats sort of my logic and I dont see a problem with the aftergame discussion we knew we opposed eachother......whatever my reasons were my play was wrong there is no denying that..
 
good nite get some sleep...I am fucking worn out! That might be the funniest thing I ever heard your gf signing up @ CTG...thats funny......just reply or discuss further tmrw....
 
As for Utah I just dont agree they are consistent...they have been up and down all year before beating SA and PHO they lost to NJ and @ NO plus Memphis at home.
Click to expand...

The Bulls were/are also inconsistent, especially on the road, you can't just ignore the home/road disparity, so I don't think a truly consistent team playing at home would get anything near PK against Chicago. Utah aren't consistent but they're pretty high at the moment, considering their recent wins. Utah is a terrible fav I agree, but PK implies they wouldn't have been a fav, and you would still take CHI there, whilst missing on a possible value opportunity had the books compiled the odds differently. Oh well, I'm rambling on now, all I'm saying had this been a 1.45 - 2.80 affair I wouldn't touch Utah, possibly only the other side then, but 1.84 is something else, had to take it.

Oh well, I'm really off to bed now, see ya tomorrow, hopefully you'll bounce back.

:shake: cheers
 
I didn't mean it that way but ok. :D.

Anyways, I'm really off to bed now. Can't keep my eyes open any more :eek:
 
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