2.5

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Finally starting to find the energy to cap sports after a long day which culminated in a shit ending for me as Chi couldnt cover. Indy deserved plain and simple I didnt like CHI's approach at all and the funny part is with Benson out the rain seemed to benefit the Dome team.

Back to yesterdays debate with Cakeoff. If the over hits after 2 OT's and I played the over do I think its the right bet??? YES. I bet based on a total outcome. If that outcome takes 53 , 58 or whatever minutes then I am fine with it. Sorry the game doesnt go exactly like it should have but thats sports. There are also situationals aspects of the game. If you have a 190 total and 1 team scores 110 and it goes under was your Over bet correct?? NOPE! If Atl doesnt cover yesterday I made the wrong bet. You know why? Cause its obvious the longer the game goes the better the chances NJ the better team on paper has of pulling away. Just like the longer ATL dicked around and didnt ice the game the better chance OT would happen. Its like betting an over 8.5 in baseball and seing a 4-3 game go to extra innings...you make the bet on thresholds for the team..I expect ATL to score 90 and NJ to score 94...If I am of 2 pts on each my bet is in trouble...I dont bet based on shooting pcts or pts by quarter. OT is part of the equation if it wins or loses a bet thats the way it was meant to play out. The game is in an indivual event what you expect on paper is useless once it tips. Thinking you had the right side cause you lost in OT is foolish. Dont games still go Under with OT?? So simply a bet was lost that didnt have enough room for error. Just like the 1st Half might see 75 points and the 2nd H 115 points.....then someone quoting well if the game would have went like the 2nd H then I would have won...it dont work that way...IF's a great word in sports betting...IF you change a fewthings in a game the outcome would be very different.

Sorry you lost it was a tough loss but it wasnt the right play at the end of the day...If it was it would have found a win to cash for you...Like I said yesterday doesnt mean it was a bad play.


Sixers +1 (SIA) {5units}
Over 192.5 Philly {2units}NO PLAY waiting till half

The game was low scoring in regulation yesterday due to tempo both teams shot well . The Nets did struggle from the FT line. This is a line that concerns me and the whole movement baffles me. Simply put Philly was rested and the weary Nets played OT though early on and have to again travel. NJ is 9-1 O VER past 10 both teams always seem to be right around 100 pts whether its offensively or allowed. This is just a continuation of me fading the Nets til they turn it around (again). Size could be a huge problem in this game. Philly is 5-3 last 8 and off a tough loss. I hate them in the role of small fav or small dog cause they sucked at it this year...they did play fairly well in losses to GS and Cle at home..

Sonics +8 {3units} ML +300 {1/4units}
Under 219 {4units}

Seattle on a huge STREAK but its not a good one. However somewhere inbewteen Ray Allen has heated up. In recent road gmes I believe they are 3-2-1(4-2 if u had Hou +10.5) away ATS. Both losses were blastings by the Mavs. With Wash searching for an identity in some ways without Jamison and Arenas struggling I think its a bit much. Wiz struggled in tor and vs LAL. I think this is more like a 105-101 type deal...the total is set for a healthy Sonics and Wiz team IMO...

Hawks +5.5 {5units} ML +195 {1unit}
Under 200 {2units}

The Lakers have a sandwich game here with DET ondeck. The key is LAL is just 1-5 SU as road chalk. The 1st and only win was recently in Boston as -6.5. Boston is alot worse then ATL right now. They have lost @ NO (shorthanded ) , memphis , Charlotte , Portland and Miami when favored away. So a situational fade here with a line that I feel is to fat. The Under based on ATL scroing on backends and low offensive output in general. The Odom factor with LAL helps the defense into the 97 ppg allowed range and even the offenisve dips as they are not simply trying to outsocre the opponent.

> The Indy game I like the Under but probably wont play. Davis banged up and O"Neal is OUT. Obviously the trade comes into play here but I would rather be GSW here...So lean GSW & under...

Under 209 IND {3units}

> The Miami game seems to point to an under or 1st H under.....remember Payton at point......

Bulls +115 {5units}
Over 196 {lean}
After being undervalued in PHO and vs SA they have not become overvalued IMO. At worst even with the Bulls woes I have this at a PK with Boozer OUT. I felt that when Utah hosted NJ it should have been a PK and CHI is better then NJ IMO. The Bulls can match the Jazz on the glass. they also have payback since as 6.5 dogs the Jazz won SU in Chi but Boozer was healthy. So I feel the line is bad.

The Houston and Suns game I am continuing to look at. The total move in the Nuggets makes no sense to me....

Like the Kings late not sure If I like the -5 though and the 1st H under as well......Good Luck
 
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On the under in wash with ya nut..
But went big today on the jazz, then even bigger when the line dropped..
GL tonight sir:shake:
 
i like your 76ers and hawks. im cautious of bulls bc noc is out. im on tex a&m -6.5 for my biggest play tho. go get em tonite nut.
 
SportsNut, I talked to cake yesterday on MSN and what I think he meant is that if you have a game that totals at let's say 170 with 1 min left and they end up in OT and you lose your under 190 bet for example, it's not the same as if you lost the bet and had the pre-game perception wrong.

See, I for once have a local book that has 5% commission but has O/U lines set ONLY for regular time, meaning if OT occurs, they won't count it, if it's 83-83 it's 166 that's it. So I tend to avoid OT crap when playing unders.

And let's clear this once and for all. A lost bet cannot be the right one. Obviously if you hit the green, you win. If you lose, you lose. You can't be "the moral winner" of the night. I lost several times last week and sometimes I was completely wrong (again, it doesn't have to be a blowout loss for me to say that I capped it wrongly, the game just doesn't turn out the way I had thought I would), whilst sometimes I said: damn, I capped it ok, but it lost. I'm not into "bad luck", "jinx", or any crap like that obviously.

But what else can you do when you cap a game apart from projecting the parameters/indicators well? You can't say "OT outcome is probable here" I mean wtf. OT odds usually pay at about 15.00, so if you think OT is "HIGHLY LIKELY" why not betting on it then? Nah, this is basketball we're talking about, not hockey. OT is too much of a long shot. However, if it happens, and one loses, one shouldn't be bitter about it, nor think it's the dark fate that made him lose it. Just move on. Stay focused on your goals. My goal is to reach profit in every 3 months period of time. Which I have failed exactly twice in the last 3 years. So I'm not complaining.

But yes, I would say that if you have an under 190 bet and it's 82-75 with 2-3 mins remaining that you have capped the game in the right way. Also, if you had an over, and it hit only after OT, you can't say that you're the "moral loser" of the story. Hey, if it hits, it hits. Be happy and shut up.

One more thing: Luck is a NON FACTOR on the long run. One week, even one month, you can say "hey man, I was extremely unlucky", but after 300-500 bets or even more, it evens each other out. You may not remember the narrow wins as much as you remember tough losses, that's always the case. Human psychology.



About tonight's picks:

First of I kinda knew you were going to be on the Bulls tonight, don't ask me why I just knew. I disagree obviously, since I took Utah, despite erratic line movement. Utah opened at -3,5 if I'm not mistaking, got to -1, now again back to -2 (all Pinny). Why has that happened I don't know. But I'm not letting line movement affect my thinking and screw with my mind beyond reality. I like Utah at home. I agree, Bulls can match Jazz on the glass, but B-Wall has been unstable of late, and Utah have Millsap plus Kirilenko (even though he hasn't been back to his old self since the injury) in the inside, also Okur is the big man shooting from pretty much everywhere, less golden at the defensive end. If Ben fails to show up BIG tonight, they'll be left with PJ Brown.
So now it's backcourt clash. Gordon has more talent than Harpring obviously, but Deron Williams will be turning up the tempo for the Jazz, Harpring, Fisher also have a lot to offer.
We'll see how much the Bulls will miss Nocioni tonight, who has had some excellent defensive plays lately, Hinrich seems to be in some sort of shooting funk recently, and after all Utah are 17-6 at home. The Bulls have beaten two sub par teams in their last two games, I don't think a letdown spot is legit for Utah here, if they lose they lose because Chicago stepped up, I don't believe beating two (out of three) of the best teams on the West plus having some rest means letdown. They've just returned to winning streaks after all.
They are without Boozer but defensively are covered by Millsap, offensively guys from the bench have jumped in (namely Araujo).

At this price I wouldn't take the Bulls, under these circumstances. Perhaps if Utah opened up at -3 and went to -4,5, pushing the value on the other side, I would tail along, but this is basically PK. Well not any more since the line is flying back again, probably due to Nocioni's status.

I like your other 3 plays however, and will probably pull the trigger myself on the Sixers, against the slumping Nets. Thought Sonics as well but can't trust them even if the Wizards are without Jamison and in a small downtrend. The home/away numbers put me away from this one. I think the line is set ok here.

Atlanta ATS I like. LAL as road chalk? I don't think so.


good luck tonight :shake: :cheers:
 
About SB: Being European, I had to "sacrifice" at least one of the US sports and so far it has been the NFL. I follow all other sports from across the ocean, but NFL has been a total mystery to me. Only in these playoffs I watched two games, slowly getting into the rules, teams, etc. Yesterday I watched my third game, and obviously it was the worst one. :D

Probably the rain factored in, or Grossman's choke, but after 1st Q it was all Colts man. I tailed your Bears +7 play, but Colts just blazed through. Don't like either of the teams though.
 
As usual like your plays, Chicago is a fav and Philly looks good. Good luck with them all. No plays for me yet though.
 
Good Luck guys...I am a little behind gimme a few minutes to finish posting , catch up and discuss....

The cakeoff thing is simply a discussion. Its solely my opinion based on experience. I know what he means and it sucks...just saying you see enough games the writing was on the wall late in that game that it was gonna see OT...cake's a fellow Brooklynite , its all good! I didnt want to bump yesterdays thread but wanted to reply..
 
In response quickly to the Bulls play. I do expect CHI to step up here cause they have an injured player missing , have the payback situation and finaly won a close game. The line I believe should have been a PK. Utah has lost to NJ who isnt really playing that well , they defeated SA ta home and the Spurs jsut dont beat quality teams on the road and the Suns was a joke...bad homework by me....Thomas already OUt and raja Bell out that line is -11???? Thats my whole point they got no respect and beat two teams and probably getting two much for a team they arent as good as IMO w/o Boozer. DeRon Williams isnt playing well....and that will be key
 
Seems Gary Payton is OUT so not touching that game. Going to be interesting...both PGs out and the lines go up?? Unless Williams somehow plays....not enough INFO means pass....
 
I've read everywhere that Wade is running the point tonight. Could be interesting to say the least. After his hellish weekend and now he's probably going to have to play close to 48 tonight. I'm more than interested in the Bobcats in that one.
 
As far as the Bulls game goes, being a Jazz fan, I don't really think the Jazz miss Boozer over the short run. Millsap is more than capable on the boards while AK is able to develop his offense a little more. This team is alot deeper than most realize.

As far as Nocioni goes...If a tree falls in forest and nobody is around...well you get the point. He's been avg. 9, 4, and 2 the last 10 games. I'm not sure anybody will notice if he isn't around. He's been getting about 22 minutes a game last 10 as well.

I'm not saying you're on the wrong side of this game as I wouldn't play either side, just saying the Jazz missing Boozer isn't as great as many think it may be.
 
i guess if i lose my hawks under tonight the over was the right bet
 
JPicks - I love Paul Millsap. Offensively they lose a little though. Still not trusting of AK -47 and I simply dont like how Deron Williams has played last few games . The other guys really havent stepped it up they got three games in a row now where the team was basically in flat spot . NJ end of the trip , SA off OT losss to LA with Suns ondeck and Suns shorthanded off a big win vs SA. I rode them big a few times first with NJ then vs SA....I agree but as a team they stil have slide a few notches IMO....this situation unless Utah was a dog I wouldnt like them..thanks and BOL
 
2nd H

Over 98 -120 Sixers {2units}

The Under looked great in Indiana to the final minute so thats no good. Same goes for the Sixers they looked great but faded over the final 3 minutes. I would be suprised if either won .
 
thecakeoff said:
i guess if i lose my hawks under tonight the over was the right bet
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One day you'll understand the right bet is the one that pays. You want to waste your time watching every second of every game you bet only thinking about the things that went against you thats your decision. Call the NBA up tell them to cancel the stats from the OT cause it shouldnt have counted. If your watching and not thinking OT is imminent then you havent seen enough NBA. Never said it was a bad bet at the end of the day it wasnt the winning bet. Did you get cheated? Possibly.

If you lose change that if we lose the LAL total , yes its the wrong bet. So who cares the only scored 70 points they play four. What do you think its go end on 145 total points. The right play NEVER loses end of story. Unlikely shit happens all the time. I could see if the Net sclosed the game on a 11-0 run in the final seconds to force OT but it was a tight game down the stretch and OT happens..I hit the STJ under vs ND when they had 91 at half ona 140 total....game finished on 139......UNDER was the right bet.....
 
Satyr said:
About SB: Being European, I had to "sacrifice" at least one of the US sports and so far it has been the NFL. I follow all other sports from across the ocean, but NFL has been a total mystery to me. Only in these playoffs I watched two games, slowly getting into the rules, teams, etc. Yesterday I watched my third game, and obviously it was the worst one. :D

Probably the rain factored in, or Grossman's choke, but after 1st Q it was all Colts man. I tailed your Bears +7 play, but Colts just blazed through. Don't like either of the teams though.
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Agreed. I took some Colts 2nd H -4.5 to hedge. The writing was on the wall but what good does that do for anyone I indfluenced? It was all Colts but still had an opportunity in the 4th for a SU win and 2 opps for a backdoor cover....neither haoppened...Indy deserved it...
 
Nut- You're a bright guy, and I'm trying hard to understand your logic here, but help me out. And please don't mistake my tone for sarcasm or anything like that, I'm legitimately curious about this.....

You think it is not possible to be right about a play that loses.
You also don't think it's possible to be wrong about a play that wins.

Before I go on, can you confirm those two statements?
 
Killa said:
Nut- You're a bright guy, and I'm trying hard to understand your logic here, but help me out. And please don't mistake my tone for sarcasm or anything like that, I'm legitimately curious about this.....

You think it is not possible to be right about a play that loses.
You also don't think it's possible to be wrong about a play that wins.

Before I go on, can you confirm those two statements?
Click to expand...
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SportsNut, I talked to cake yesterday on MSN and what I think he meant is that if you have a game that totals at let's say 170 with 1 min left and they end up in OT and you lose your under 190 bet for example, it's not the same as if you lost the bet and had the pre-game perception wrong.

See, I for once have a local book that has 5% commission but has O/U lines set ONLY for regular time, meaning if OT occurs, they won't count it, if it's 83-83 it's 166 that's it. So I tend to avoid OT crap when playing unders.

And let's clear this once and for all. A lost bet cannot be the right one. Obviously if you hit the green, you win. If you lose, you lose. You can't be "the moral winner" of the night. I lost several times last week and sometimes I was completely wrong (again, it doesn't have to be a blowout loss for me to say that I capped it wrongly, the game just doesn't turn out the way I had thought I would), whilst sometimes I said: damn, I capped it ok, but it lost. I'm not into "bad luck", "jinx", or any crap like that obviously.

But what else can you do when you cap a game apart from projecting the parameters/indicators well? You can't say "OT outcome is probable here" I mean wtf. OT odds usually pay at about 15.00, so if you think OT is "HIGHLY LIKELY" why not betting on it then? Nah, this is basketball we're talking about, not hockey. OT is too much of a long shot. However, if it happens, and one loses, one shouldn't be bitter about it, nor think it's the dark fate that made him lose it. Just move on. Stay focused on your goals. My goal is to reach profit in every 3 months period of time. Which I have failed exactly twice in the last 3 years. So I'm not complaining.

But yes, I would say that if you have an under 190 bet and it's 82-75 with 2-3 mins remaining that you have capped the game in the right way. Also, if you had an over, and it hit only after OT, you can't say that you're the "moral loser" of the story. Hey, if it hits, it hits. Be happy and shut up.

One more thing: Luck is a NON FACTOR on the long run. One week, even one month, you can say "hey man, I was extremely unlucky", but after 300-500 bets or even more, it evens each other out. You may not remember the narrow wins as much as you remember tough losses, that's always the case. Human psychology.


I completely agree its not the same but OT still counts . If you play a total and your not doing two things : setting a range for each team to score and projecting the outcome of the game your just guessing at the totals. I loved ATL so obviously I expected a 7 pt dog to hang around all game. I even said I expect a 1 possession outcome( meaning 1,2 or 3 points) . Two things I hate to see on totals are everuone like the under and see the line drop couple points and everyone like the over and watch it rise a few points...they are caution signs. I liked the ATL under with all the talk about defense but at the end decided it was were it should be and the game was gonna be close. So OT decided it what if they scored 25 points in the final 3 minutes due to FTs and 3 pt shooting pushing it over 190. Is that any different? Its not but you had one sample and they way it worked out was it went to OT. I never said his play was poor especially since3 all you have to do is read my thread I entertained it.

I simply feel like when your going good you get the so called breaks and avoid the moose or when your going bad you find another way to lose. I have seen enough to know once yo go down one path the wriring is on the wall.

You can make a so called good bet and it loses. It was simply not good enough though.

I simply dont understand how a 7pt lead with 3 minutes left and the better team is home and down and OT is a real concern. Its unlikely but if its gonna happen these are the situations it does......

Thats all I can say. I bitch and complain about tough losses cause its frustrating. I swear I dont watch 1/10 as used to cause it will drive you crazy. My motto is simply the game is how the tale plays out not vice versa. Its not how your handicapping plays out...

Why do you think I say things like I will be suprised to see Philly or the Under 209 hit cause of the way the 1st H ended. You bet enough games over a decade and you see every situation and so many of them mirror eachother...so lets see if my predictions hold up....
 
Basically, what I'm wondering is.........

You said that if you have OVER 190, and you win because of 2OT, you were CORRECT about the play.

But if you have, say, UNDER 190, and the final is 115-74, you were INCORRECT about the play.

So, in your mind, it is possible for someone to be wrong about a play that wins in regulation, but right about a play that wins only due to OVERTIME?

Basically, I'm just trying to find some consistency in how you look at things, that's all. Thanks in advance for any response.
 
Killa said:
Nut- You're a bright guy, and I'm trying hard to understand your logic here, but help me out. And please don't mistake my tone for sarcasm or anything like that, I'm legitimately curious about this.....

You think it is not possible to be right about a play that loses.
You also don't think it's possible to be wrong about a play that wins.

Before I go on, can you confirm those two statements?
Click to expand...


Yes. I do think you can make a good play that loses and vice versa a bad play that wins. Right and wrong is decided by who gets paid. Some people could simple be lucky as shit have the entire game wrong and win. It happens. You guys rely to heavily on the game itself rather then final to decide if your play was correct. The way the game is being played dictates outcome. Big lead no fouls maybe you sneak away with an under. Perfect example is the Magic / Bucks under last week. You felt it was to high but if I told you ORL had 56 at half would you still think that? So the game was a blowout and Orl pulled its starters early did you foresee that in your capping? No you bet it based on value. I said simply the ATL line had no value it was a pure gamble either way....

If you take an over and one team scores 110 and the spread is 7 and the total is 194...did you make the right play?

Everyone seems to think cause a game played outa certain way thats the exact way it would happen every time they play. I always use the friend story. he says the Series 7 isnt hard cause he didnt study that long and got a 68. I say well you failed. What makes you think if you studied hardier you would pass? Cause you guessed well and got a 68? To me the two dont link. So just cause you have everything covered doesnt mean you came up with the right play. It happens there is so mch shit we dont know about.

So fire away and dont think your disagreement will insult me. I dont know cakeoff very long or well but like him. Obviously I know you well . If we dont listen to others opinions we are truly ignorant...
 
Killa said:
Basically, what I'm wondering is.........

You said that if you have OVER 190, and you win because of 2OT, you were CORRECT about the play.

But if you have, say, UNDER 190, and the final is 115-74, you were INCORRECT about the play.

So, in your mind, it is possible for someone to be wrong about a play that wins in regulation, but right about a play that wins only due to OVERTIME?

Basically, I'm just trying to find some consistency in how you look at things, that's all. Thanks in advance for any response.
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You cant cap OT. I agree. The problem is you have to cap the game if your playing a total. You have to cap a score. Do you guysy bet totals without a final score in mind? That was my point what was the worst you could expect yesterday 94 -90 game...you had very little wiggle room. So your mindset pregame should be close game late FTs even possibly OT can be an issue here and I dont have enough wiggle room to get around that.

If you lose an Over cause of a blowout your wrong. You should have included the game in your thought process. I neversaid the Under was wrong at 115-74 ....seriously did I??

That UNDER would be correct cause you may have capped a blowout...
 
The point is this the game itself is how it plays out pure and simple. There is he missed as easy layup this or that...you cant change one thing. Its like the movie butterfly effect. He changes one part of his past and the entire futire changes. Same deal.

We all lose things on meaningless plays. Some games they foul late some they dont. You cant cap that shit. You can cap the relative competitiveness of the game and you can predict an area the score will be around.

You make good decisions and points and still be wrong.
 
I have no idea why I am taking these but I every line move I noticed and didnt play won so....no handicapping all logic or ILLLOGIC

Suns 1stH -4.5 {2units}
Over 112 {3units}
 
A lot of talk about this chicago/utah game. I see it being close at halftime. So, I'll wait til half to play it. GL to you on it. It will definately be a fun game.
 
SportsNut said:
I neversaid the Under was wrong at 115-74 ....seriously did I??

That UNDER would be correct cause you may have capped a blowout...
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This is the statement of yours I was referring to, from the first post in this thread:

If you have a 190 total and 1 team scores 110 and it goes under was your Over bet correct?? NOPE!
 
Okay. If there is a 190 total. You have one team that scores 110 would you not assume that you cash your over? That was my point. I could see someone saying so and so scored 110 how did it not go over. Easy the other got blown out and scored 77....

So I am saying just cause a team scores 110 of a 190 total that doesnt mean your losing bet on the over was correct...clear?
 
Justin like I say you bet to beat the line ....that why I am saying the final score is the indicator to a bet being correct or not. If you didnt beat the line you didnt make the right play
 
It all gets confusing, like a tongue-twister, lol. I'm confused about the Orlando/Milwaukee reference though. That under won by, what, 20something points? I watched that game and not for one second did I think I was going to lose. In my writeup I mentioned that Orlando was desperate, and with desperation comes defense. I bet the under at 196.5. If I bet an under, say, 185, and a team dropped 56 in the 1H, I can understand you saying I was incorrect about the game. But a total of nearly 200, one 56-point half by one team is hardly a killer. Especially when it's a home team that you figure might be ripe for a blowout. But with 196.5 for an Orlando home total, you were looking at Milwaukee to need about 95+ for an over and I just didn't think they had that in them. The line was predicting 102-94 and I could not see it.

The whole beauty of totals is that you can win them any way. In my exact plan, would Orlando have scored 56 in the 1H? Of course not. But if I wasn't right about that total, then I'll never be right about a total, cuz that was an easy winner from minute 1-48. I understand you had the over (i think) and it's hard to be totally unbiased, but I just thought that even mentioning that under bettors had the wrong idea about that one was way off. Good discussion.
 
The only reason I havent played Jerseys last 2 Unders (tonight and vs ATL) is because I felt their totals were suspiciously high.

Well what do you know, both games go into OT and, barring a miracle here, both turn into overs. That one can happen, sure. But 2 in a row, when the public love both unders with inflated totals, as they should have (neither has come close to being over in regulation)?

Shady shit
 
Perfect example of what I was talking about yesterday. Lines that dont have value and the public perception is that they do funny shit always happens. Tonite I talk Loyola , MD ML instead of +3. I feel the line is correct and they either win SU or lose ATS. They are up 10 60-50 with something like 4 minutes left maybe a little less then lost 65-62 and the Stags git 2FTs with 1 second left?

Who is right or wrong?
 
good call on nets over 2h SportsNut you knew that OT was coming
 
Up until the last minute, Carter hadnt missed a FT but his missed FT in that final minute made for OT. Kind of Carter to open the door for Philly
 
SportsNut said:
Right and wrong is decided by who gets paid.
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Definitely, but ONLY on the long run.

In particular games, meaning we look at games/wagers individually, imagine this situation.

Phoenix v Miami. For example. The spread is 15. And we all know it's damn impossible this would be the spread, but for the sake of discussion, let's say it is. Both teams with NO INJURIES. You have an occasional NBA fan, takes a glimpse at the standings, sees Phoenix are 37-9 and Miami are somewhat 19-25 (doesn't matter if it's right, we're talking theoretically now), and says "ok, I'll take PHX -15).

We all jump ALL OVER the HEAT +15, obviously. Let' say Heat are in an uptrend, they are in full squad and they're fired up for the game.

He wins the bet. Even though he got completely and utterly RIPPED, for taking such a huge spread, he got paid and we didn't. And I'm not talking about no sharp vs public thingy, I'm talking purely good cappers vs occasional cappers that are usually every bookie's wet dream.

Now look at your sentence again:

Right and wrong is decided by who gets paid
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Wouldn't say that in this case, or similar cases. We've already agreed, there are no "moral winners", there are no jinxes or bad luck when long run is concerned, but you gotta say that people (mostly people who don't follow the sport in depth as some here do) often take lousy lines, and even though they cash in with that particular bet, it's a bad pattern for the future, and almost surely a path to losing.

Note that this was only an example, an exaggerated one, which can also be translated to plays in real life, meaning without spreads which are THAT off. You know as well as I do that you have to know how to determine value in sports in order to make profit, and that's not an easy thing to do. Obviously all bets can be backed by some sort of reasoning, trends, explanation, and no t every play wins of course. Not every punter wins either. But there still are bad lines and bad deals and good deals. You know that, you were the one who had that spot on parallel, when it comes to betting and open market.
 
Killa said:
It all gets confusing, like a tongue-twister, lol. I'm confused about the Orlando/Milwaukee reference though. That under won by, what, 20something points? I watched that game and not for one second did I think I was going to lose. In my writeup I mentioned that Orlando was desperate, and with desperation comes defense. I bet the under at 196.5. If I bet an under, say, 185, and a team dropped 56 in the 1H, I can understand you saying I was incorrect about the game. But a total of nearly 200, one 56-point half by one team is hardly a killer. Especially when it's a home team that you figure might be ripe for a blowout. But with 196.5 for an Orlando home total, you were looking at Milwaukee to need about 95+ for an over and I just didn't think they had that in them. The line was predicting 102-94 and I could not see it.

The whole beauty of totals is that you can win them any way. In my exact plan, would Orlando have scored 56 in the 1H? Of course not. But if I wasn't right about that total, then I'll never be right about a total, cuz that was an easy winner from minute 1-48. I understand you had the over (i think) and it's hard to be totally unbiased, but I just thought that even mentioning that under bettors had the wrong idea about that one was way off. Good discussion.
Click to expand...


Justin agree(didnt have the over though). The whole beauty is you can win or LOSE them any way. My reference was this. You made a play based on the line being off which I am not disagreeing with. However what I am saying is did ou expect Orl to be up 20 athalf and / or have 56 points and still feel comfortable. Probably not thats just how the game played out though. You have a 195 total and one team has 58 at half you better hope its a blowout. I did have the team total for ORL and lost cause they didnt playteh 2nd H. I am not saying the Under was wrong. If yo go back to that day I might not have agreed with it but I said if its going UNDER its has to be a blowout. You made a decision based on the line which is the 1st step of the process...

My point wasn't about your bet it was about having an under and a team having 58 pts at half and the under still winning. There was enough value in the line to overcome that..
 
Sorry guys I am trying to 5 things at once...just gimme a few...

Cake...again I dont cap OT or care about OT I cap the score. So what did I say in my original writeup...both teams always right around 100 pts on both offense and defense....what was the final ....100-98?? Did I cap OT but did I get the expect score pretty close...yeah I think I did... these are things I learned over the years...

Should I say I got screwed cause they hit a late basket in Indy for the 209 total. Or did I have a fair idea that cause of that late push before the half my bet was gonna find a way to lose??


Satyr ...

Thats understandable your example. However its cut and dry. There was no situational aspect included. if I lay 15 in a game. What do I want ?? This is hypothetical ...at least a 25 pt lead to start the 4th cause chanes are the losing team wins the fourth. So I am thinking is so-so gonna destroy a team for 3 quarters when I am capping it...

The lousy lines....give credit to the linesmaker for a job well done. ha dthis discussion with someone and my answer probably wasnt what someone was looking for but I said the linesmakers GOAL is to make the bettor see value where there isnt. Like the Pacers getting 7.5 in Det...I dont know his reasoning but he had to know something...and I dont mean fix...I mean its this guy job and he does well....

We can make good decisions that put us the wrong play or bad decisions that put on the right play. Every play I lost tonite was by two points..they were still wrong....
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
The only reason I havent played Jerseys last 2 Unders (tonight and vs ATL) is because I felt their totals were suspiciously high.

Well what do you know, both games go into OT and, barring a miracle here, both turn into overs. That one can happen, sure. But 2 in a row, when the public love both unders with inflated totals, as they should have (neither has come close to being over in regulation)?

Shady shit
Click to expand...


I agree shady shit...not in the fix sense....just in how public perception is always wrong. I started this yesterday.....anytime you see on a money mag buy Gold , buy real estate ..blah , blah , blah SELLLL........

That was my point iwth Loyola Maryland as well. When public perception is there is value in something that doesnt have it 9 times out of 10 its WRONG or LOSES....I dont know why exactly.....but I know that I have seen this for 12 years bewteen trading bonds and sports wagering.....

Fading the public makes no sense to me but fading public perception does.....
 
Since I get caught up in typing and responding I barely spoke about any games.....I did play Sac -5 {4units}

2nd H :
Bulls -2.5 -120 {3units}
Suns -8.5 {2units}
Over 111.5 Suns {5units}
 
he had to know something
Click to expand...

He had to know what exactly? The Pacers tie it up at 79 with 4 mins on the clock and they lose by exactly 8. Job well done yes, but why do you say there was no value in Indiana then? ONE POINT here and there. Game tied with 4 mins, equal game we're talking about. And I'm not saying purely stats here, but EVEN stats can back it up: Indiana shot 42.5%, Detroit 37%.

Battle on the glass? 46-41 Pacers. Ok Indiana had 14 TO, Detroit only 8. But that's not the point. +7,5 wasn't a bait. It was a legit line, and I took the points. Your sentence:
linesmakers GOAL is to make the bettor see value where there isnt. Like the Pacers getting 7.5 in Det...I dont know his reasoning but he had to know something...and I dont mean fix... I mean its this guy job and he does well
Click to expand...

suggests like the Pistons were the play and the linesmaker knew it? he did his job well, determined the line correctly, pin pointed it to put it that way. But why couldn't you say Pacers were value? Surely not just because they lost?
I capped the game, and capped it right, since I watched it afterwards and nothing out of the projected had occurred.

Unlike f.e. Dallas team total over 115 vs Memphis, that was me doing a lousy capping job. Nets in Orlando: again, wrong call. Etc...

:shake:
 
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