2.22

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Solid nite for me yesterday 8-2 or 9-2 if ur counting 2nd Halves...+20 units in all.....those are always fun...Wanted to say Thanks Sodapop..!

Kings @ Wizards:

Have to say suprised that this game went to -5. Is it the fact Mike Bibby may no longer be with the team come tip?? Is it the fickle mentality of the bettor who thinks they beat Minny so they are cured? I mean I wouldnt rate Minny ahead of Sac at the moment. Yet we flipped from Twolve love in Wash to the home team now.

Last meeting Jamison had 31 pts and Martin had 40. Well AJ is out and Martin isnt playing as well as he was during that stretch. Artest didnt play the 1st meeting which could mean more defense. I mean John Salmons played well on O shooting 10 of 14 so they didnt skip a beat there but on D they sure did. I think Caron Butler is battling burnout as he as Agent Zero are top 5 in minutes this year. Caron has shot below 40% in 5 straight and 6 of 7 basically the time AJ has missed and this is with an increased role.

I think the total is high with Artest in this matchup and Blatche in the starting lineup. What is keeping me off is the great ability of both offenses to get to the FT line . Tend to like Sac but it is game 1 of an Eastern swing....so not decisive here...

Bulls @ Cavs

Chi is off a great defensive effort at home while Cle can say something similiar about last nites win @ Tor. What I did notice was Cavs last 5 at HOME were UNDERS. With Cle being 40-11 UNDER vs the CENTRAL u can see where I am headed. Cavs avg 92 pts on b2b and 187 total and havent allowed more then 90 pts L5 at home..

Past history has shown Chi to struggle in Cle and well we know about he road woes ths season. Though I tend to like Chi its tough to fade the Cavs at home right now.

So looking at the Under and 1st H with quite possibly a play on CHI. They began a key stretch with 4 in 5 here.

Miami @ Dallas

Just a matter of how bad Dallas wants it IMO. I think Eddie Jones fills in well tonite if he gets the nod. I like the energy he has brought to Miami and I could see a real big game from him with an expanded role tonite. Truth is I thought 8 was a little light for Dallas here so I would have probably laid it after being soft and not taking Houston.

Dallas has had a lot of rest and I suspect this might be real low scoring affair. Its just how well does Miami play on defense..??? Last 3 in DAL have played UNder....

So real no lean on a side but thinking an UNDER..

GL- be back later to get some plays down. Will be on the Bulls Under and not sure what else..:cheers:
 
Good points on Wash/Sac. bibby in lingo is a good question. I should have thought about that one earlier.
I also like your points on CAV/Bulls game. I was leaning bulls spread but have yet to pull the trigger..


GL tonight nut
 
Thanks Farm. I am thinking I will stay away from the side in Wash and Sac. Seems that Bibby is gonna be gone so lock in those Wiz plays. Really want to play the Bulls myself but I am not sure B2B is good enough reason to fade Cle now....GL bro

Thnak Steed! Good Luck today...
 
played both as well...got 188.5 for the game.
I like Washington here. With no Bibby, I don't see a cover for Sactown.
 
Good Luck euros.

Tough to not like Wash but I just dont trust them yet.

Side note someone just pounded the OVER in Dallas 186.5 to 189.5 in a blink...
 
Dallas is fucked they just traded Anthony Johnson for a 2nd round pick

hit Miami ML HARD !!!!!!!!!!
 
I agree Nut. If you like Wash in this spot hit it now at -5 because if Bibby is gone, add another 2-3 pts.
 
Good Luck Duy and Cakeoff!

Would be suprised if many of these stars Vince , Kidd , Gasol and Bibby are still home at 3 PM....BOL Pepsiman
 
The Bulls/Cavs under is a tough call. I remember last season these two teams went on a 3 game under streak against one another and I was able to profit from that. However, ever since this 3 game streak, linesmakers have been setting the totals relatively low (ie 180's) for their matchups and I have been biting and losing on the under.

So far, Cleveland has been able to exceed totals in this range (185-189.5) 9-4. Chicago on the other hand has only exceeded this total 4-7. However, Chicago has been more likely to go over totals on the road than at home (16-10 v. 11-17). But then again, Cleveland likes to control tempo at home and their totals have gone under 11-16.

As much as I want to bet the under, I feel that I will once again witness the total go over as Cleveland has done well against totals in this range and because Chicago still struggles on the road and their totals tend to go over on the road.
 
Who is pounding the Over in the Dallas game...it has been going up and up all day long.

SN
any thoughts on quarters tonight?
 
Euros - Would not have the slightest idea. I just tend to attempt make sense of drastic line moves. Obviously the game opene 190 went down cause of Wade's absence then shot from 186.5 to 189 range. So I will not and would not recommend touching an Under. Just doing some Due Diligence on the total I realized I made a mistake looking at the playoff games as part of the prior meetings. Really we all understand how the playoffs are a different atmosphere and should not be coupled with reg season games. For a reg season game 186 was damn low. I dont want to make an over play based on a line move but it sure seems like the right play cause Dallas offensively has to be above 103 IMO....just about every offense the caliber of DALLAS has soared above 100 pts vs Miami..

Havent come across any Half or Quarter plays in the NBA yet. Wash seem to play great 1st H and so-so 2nd H biut thats off the top off my head...

GL tonite

Good Luck Shank , Rooster and Dan..nervous about a Miami Und now...

Affinity - There definetly was some sort of adjustment this season with this series totals. Previously in the mid 190's and higher we have seen low to mid 180's and connsequentially 2 overs this season. So alil adjustment upward here hopefully gives us enough wiggle room. I am sort of habing faith in CHI defensive effort vs ATL carrying over. The Bulls have recognized there ability to play great defense in spurts this yr and KNOW they must carry ot over to the road where there are allowing to many teams 100 or better....Thinking this game is played in teh 90's just not the mid or uppers 90's....still may bit on CHI..BOLare u ready for baseball for Mr.Varitek??
 
0-6-1 ATS for Wiz at home after a home game when they topped 100 previous game . Which is 2-10-1 when taking the situation to either home or road....

Basically Wiz dont play well the gamesa after they score 110 at home...

So thinking with Bibby staying put will ride Sac here
 
Add:

Kings +5.5 {4units} ML +185 {1/2unit}

Under 189 Chi {5units}
Under 94.5 1st Half {3units}
Bulls +4 {2units} ML +140 {1unit}

Over 101.5 Dallas team {3units}




BOL
 
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good luck tonight SN, I only made one play which is off for a while now, so no use in writing it in my thread or anything, and it's Dallas -10,5 last night when the line opened. I just think Mavs come out hungry and fired up and win by 20 against a team that beat them in the finals and dominated them in recent seasons.
I won't overthink or touch anything else tonight, good writeups you've got there btw :shake:
 
SportsNut said:
....still may bit on CHI..BOLare u ready for baseball for Mr.Varitek??
Click to expand...

No doubt, I cannot wait to see how the new additions perform for the Sox. Hopefully Tek will have an easier go at it this season.

The Bulls/Cavs matchup is really an enigma for me in terms of both the total/spread as a good argument could be made for both. Both teams have been playing well as of late, but can Chicago perform on the road?

I like the idea behind the Mavs/Heat under and I am also tempted to wait until game time to back the Heat. The Heat have been without Wade and Shaq both earlier this season and while their play wasn't stellar, I can see them battling back in the 2H to cover a long spread. I understand that some are pushing the revenge angle, but like you said, how much does Dallas really want this one? Wouldn't Wade's absence quell the need for revenge RE the comments made. I'm also not convinced that Dampier will do much to contain Shaq who will gladly try to shoulder the load tonight.
 
Affinity - have to say what Boston is running out there this season is impressive. Glad to see that Boston is wise enough to give Manny his space. Lets face it the guys doesnt want to be in Boston but he enjoys playing the game or hitting at least. He is pretty good at it I would say. So let him be and try to get the best out of him by babying him.

I guess the key is closer and 2B. Pedroia really dont know much about him suprised they didnt make a run at a guy like Belliard ...could have had him for a 1million bucks no doubt....maybe less..

Agree with Chi like I was saying best avenue seems to be fatigued cavs. Just not sure thats the case here.

I think the Mavs game might break down...thinking it gets sloppy with Miami shooting alot of threes. If they hit they go over....would play the over not the under here....just to easy for Dallas to drop 105 in this one IMO.....looking for 2nd H Miami value

Dampier probably thinks he will shutdown Shaq though...foolish man..


Good Luck tonite Satyr. I owuld have enjoyed being on DAL -8 but no interest above -10.

Euros- I must acknowledge that I saw that from a tout post in the service plays section. SO I researched it and it held up and I think I need a concrete reson to play SAC and I see this as one.....like I said if u didnt lay -3 with Wash vs Minny cant see why you would want to lay 5 vs Sac...who played reall well won 5 straight lost b2b game in Seattle, then lost tough OT game in HOU and had to play @ NO next nite...bad spot and rebounded bybeating Boston game 1 after the break....GL
 
i have more thoughts on my hometown team (chi) tonight.

i look for the bulls to prove that their current rotation is one set to take them into the east playoffs tonight. the bulls wanted to get gasol badly or even shareef (sp) from kings to add some size to their frontline. as we all know neither were done as management didnt want to shake up the young talent/chemistry that this team has going for it. to be honest, i dont blame them. IMO deng is still a very raw player. get him in the weight room to add 15 and i think he is an all-star for some time.

fading the cavs off a SU dog win on a b2b has been money in the past so why not. the bulls havent won a road game at cleveland in some time so why is the line just +/- 3? just some thoughts for discussion ...
 
Brewers I was actually gonna say that b4 but forgot. The fact they stuck with there team refusing to deal Gordon or Deng showed confidence in what they had. maybe just maybe that will motivate the players and see them respond tonite to that vote of confidence...

I think the -3 has alot to do with cavs being downgraded by 1.5/ 2 pts with Z out.......remeber that Cle was +7.5 in LAL....that was absurd...

BOL ...think I will dive in small on Chi
 
I like Chicago tonight as well. Really don't think that I will make a play on it, Cleveland has not been playing well, but they do play better ball on the homecourt. Chicago has really struggled on the road as well, actually hold one of the worst records for road games in the NBA. So that formula dosen't really work out to good for me.

Dallas -4 1st quarter $50 is the play so far that is in place. I think they should open up this game hot and come out with the motivation to dismantle the Heat. I expect a 5 point lead or greater at the end of the 1st quarter. Also thinking about doubling up and laying 50 on the 1st half play as well. Miami has been able to do some strange things when they are short handed players so it has me a little cautious. But I do feel that the Heat fall apart this one.
 
Good luck MX...dont have any 1st Q or 1st H plays that interest me outisde of the CHI under 1st H..I hate playing fav 1st Q's...

Good Luck brewers....as much as I liked Cle think I only had then 1st H small and some ML.....I had no balls!
 
looks like im gonna be sweating again with chicago on the road. just bought some cleveland to win the ring at +2000. wade is likely done, and seemingly miami then. cavs proved they could play with detroit last year and detroit isn't a strong rebounding team. toronto doesnt scare me. and the bulls well ... also, helps having the best playa in the east (LJ) riding with on that wager.

hopefully i can make money on this futures bet regardless on a hedge. looks like good value.
 
looked as if cleveland creamed their shorts in the 3rd Q. big ben was sick tonight. i think i will dedicate my winnings on his behalf.
 
Congrats on correctly picking both side/total for the Bulls/Cavs - luckily you kept me away from backing the Cavs.

Cavs scoring only 9 points in a quarter:36_11_6:
 
Nice work brewers. You have to respect the Cavs with Lebron. The Z injury has show they have depth at the 4/5 spot. Big ben grabbing boards making baskets and hitting FTs.......!!! Lord!

I have to apologize for bitching about the Wiz-Kings game. Obviously I lucked out and thought I was dead in the water when a 3pt game became 16 early 4th quarter.....take a shower and see 99-98 Kings...thankfully they held on..
 
affinity said:
Congrats on correctly picking both side/total for the Bulls/Cavs - luckily you kept me away from backing the Cavs.

Cavs scoring only 9 points in a quarter:36_11_6:
Click to expand...

Thank You. Naturally CHI had to make me shit myself but they impressed me my holding on. Almost every home team wil make a run . Nice to be a positive influence...Literally watched about 3 minutes as I soon I started watching Cavs run....said fuck it ...I am jinx and turned the channel...I'll watch Dallas and Miami some though...
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Wanted to get your take on the upcoming game...Think Dallas can keep it within 13 or will they smoke em?
Click to expand...


Was thinking Miami 4th quarter might be a great play. Honestly real bad spot for Miami here but Dal long rest could hurt them so I am gonna wait till HALF to see if I can get better then +13 for teh game...wouldnt lay -13 with so much rest for Dallas
 
Naturally CHI had to make me shit myself

i laughed pretty good once i read that. good stuff.
 
SportsNut said:
Add:

Kings +5.5 {4units} Win +4.00 ML +185 {1/2unit}-0.50

Under 189 Chi {5units}Win +5.00
Under 94.5 1st Half {3units} Win +3.00
Bulls +4 {2units} Win +2.00 ML +140 {1unit} Win +1.40

Over 101.5 Dallas team {3units} +3.00




BOL
Click to expand...

So basically 5-0 +17.90 (split some value plays on the ML)

One to go..very happy...
 
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Terry for THREEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

WOW....I guess I slept on DAL 1st H!!!!65-42...

Have to be happy with 65 of 101.5 at halftime.

Really like Miami +1.5!!!!!! 2nd H and even ova 93....might get involved
 
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