2.12

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Three games :

LAC @ DET
GSW @ DEN
ATL @ UTAH


Can the Clippers face a worse opponent then Det? The offense is struggling failing to break 90 in Indiana , Cle , Philly and NYK. Pistons have struggled somewhat as home chalk but -8 looks good to me. LAC didnt show up in Indy today so why would they in DET? Definetly some issues with Maggette and him wanting to be there. Hard to believe LAC can crack 90 points in DET and was thinking about team UNDER but would prefer 90 or better and probably wont do better then 89.5 by the time it comes out tmrw. LAC is 2-4 SU on the trip sneaking by Philly by 1 and smoking the Celtics enough said. Other central squads like Cle and Ind smoked them by double digits and now they get the best the Central has to offer.

So basically I felt this total should be 188-189 range so really no value. I would actually expect it to drift lower and Pistons should crack 100. So Imigt be inclined to play DET team over and LAC team under plu sthe Pistons. One would think LAC is fatigued at the end of a trip and may have mailed it already.

<LI class=more>Clippers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. <LI class=morecool>Clippers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. <LI class=morecool>Clippers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.<LI class=morehot>Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. <LI class=more>Pistons are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 vs. NBA Pacific.<LI class=morehot>Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=more>Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Thinking none of the injured players play in Denver. Expecting something like Den -4.5 and 214 depending on tonites outcome.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width=170>0 Days Rest </TD><TD width=70>W/L</TD><TD width=70>ATS</TD><TD width=70>AF</TD><TD width=70>AA</TD><TD width=70>Total</TD><TD width=70>O/U</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>GS</TD><TD class=datacell>1-12</TD><TD class=datacell>4-9-0</TD><TD class=datacell>98.5</TD><TD class=datacell>110.4</TD><TD class=datacell>208.9</TD><TD class=datacell>5-8</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So looking to fade GSW if the number is right and possible play an over if its less then I expected.

The Jazz - Hawks total was 195.5 on open already down to 194 / 193.5. Would have expected more like 192.5. So waiting before I make a decision but open first glance see the under as attractive. lets recall that the last meeting was that Horrific 4th q collapse at home. Which pushed Utah's streak t o 8 wins and 8 covers. Again though with Boozer out this number seems to high. The tough part is 3rd game in 4 nites away for Hawks (Suns and GSW) plus rested team versus back to back to back west coast spot. Except for the travel situation and the series history the Hawks really are over priced. There are playing there best ball of the season . The Jazz are playing okay but moving into the role of over priced favorite IMO. So heavy lean towards Hawks +8 and possible under 1st Half play....
 
my initial thoughts was a lean on Utah...wou ldlike it better @ 6...I just see a huge rebounding edge for uTAH
 
BeLIEve811 said:
Im think more around 6.5 in Denver even with the injuries. GS terrible road record. Books will adjust the line.
Click to expand...

Could see that. I think you have to look at how undervalued DEN has been of late . They were just 2 pt dogs to Milw. Will be interesting. Tend to be open minded about injury games cause you just dont know what to expect my guess is 4.5 or 5.
 
Austintx_05 said:
my initial thoughts was a lean on Utah...wou ldlike it better @ 6...I just see a huge rebounding edge for uTAH
Click to expand...

See my problem with that is ATL isnt a rebounding team. They dont have a rebounder so everyone has that edge. Hawks basically have 7 guys who grab 4 -8 boards a nite though. I think thats how they overcome it. I just think -4 / 4.5 is better based on how these teams are playing. Utah had no business beating NYK the other nite and just think ATL is basically similiar to NYK..
 
u think that Detroit line is low..I know it looks good to take Detroit here...well det was 6.5 over toronto...toronto was -3 to lac..so i guess its on...i was actuaslly leaning under in this one...kinda see a 158ish total here
 
Gl. Whichever side you go with. Imma sitting this one out, maybe wait till 2nd haf, or live betting. The card is just plain horrible
 
Let that Utah total drop, I like the over regardless of what the current action does.
 
Scourge - My decision will probably based on what it does. I do think currently its a tad high but sort of in no mans land. BOL

Duy - Good Luck then. Patience is my worst virtue...always pick the wrong times to have some..

Ausitin- Dont think its low about where it should be since Tor is slightily ahead of LAC. Just looking at how these teams are playing I think 7.5/ 8 presents more value for the Pistons. Clippers just dont look like they are interested no matter what they say. With a team that can really defend like DET it could get ugly again. The total I would think its around mid 180's final so I am laying for now....tough card...

Blownaway- The good part is they really dont have much from the arc so it could be a wise play. If I go under its 1st Half. GL on that
 
Pistons opened at 8.5, I expected 7.5 to be honest. But still it was just a long shot never did any estimations/calculations to go with it.

Might be worth a shot.
 
Not crazy about anything involving these two posted games. Would say Hawks then Stons but dont like eithers spot that much. ATL 3rd game of WEST COAST trip just reminds me of what NJ did recently. They have stunk playing backends vs rested teams just 1-4 SU and ATS. Joe Johnson struggles on no rest . Utah has really played just one game past week as well. So situational edge against them but line seems so way off to me. They tend to be low scoring in backends though...

With Det its about where I thougt it would be. Does LAC punt the last game or play its ass off? I njust dont know yet
 
figures over thought the over in Atlanta G St. for me missing the first meeting
but SportsNut open my eyes on Chicago suns having banks burke james jones ! a bad road trip they needed this win also i was on the money on the seattle game im pissed off i MISSED THE Atlanta G St. game again by felling a sleep :down:does anyone here have a NBA League Pass that doesnt use there NBA LP Broadband account send me a pm please for some reason when i sign up on nba.com it doesnt let me sign up with my cablevision account i would like to catch up on games i missed during the day thanks i would appreciative it :cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Scourge - My decision will probably based on what it does. I do think currently its a tad high but sort of in no mans land. BOL

Duy - Good Luck then. Patience is my worst virtue...always pick the wrong times to have some..

Ausitin- Dont think its low about where it should be since Tor is slightily ahead of LAC. Just looking at how these teams are playing I think 7.5/ 8 presents more value for the Pistons. Clippers just dont look like they are interested no matter what they say. With a team that can really defend like DET it could get ugly again. The total I would think its around mid 180's final so I am laying for now....tough card...

Blownaway- The good part is they really dont have much from the arc so it could be a wise play. If I go under its 1st Half. GL on that
Click to expand...


Tell me something I don't know yet. hahahaha:smiley_acbe:
 
What up, been lurkin for months, thoughts it about time to throw a post or two out there. Very impressed with the knowledge thrown around here. I like not having to rummage through 80 shit posts to find 1 post with good info, much appreciated. Ok, enough ass smootchin. As much as I think 8 may be a bit much, I gotta lean Pistons on this one. Clips are at the very end of a long ass road trip and we all know they are not a strong road team. You gotta think they're tired off a B2B & 7 road games in the last 11 days as well as 5 road games in the last week alone. I think Detroit has definitely got a fire lit under them these days. And if indiana, who I consider garbage can handle them, I dont see why big D cant. Already got 8 units on the Stones at -8 (-115), will consider more manana. Rest of the card doesnt interest me. Gonna just grab a 12'er & enjoy!
:drink:
 
SportsNut said:
Expecting something like Den -4.5 and 214 depending on tonites outcome.
Click to expand...

We do think alike, I just told my friend on the MSN the line will probably be -5,5 Nuggets. Logged in to Pinny account today and what do I see?

Denver -9.5

what are we missing? Any comebacks in the Nuggets' squad? gotta check local newspapers' sites.
 
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/nba/article/0,2777,DRMN_23922_5345906,00.html

Injuries: Warriors - Pietrus (sprained right ankle) is questionable; G Baron Davis (bruised left knee), G Jason Richardson (broken right hand) and F Zarko Cabarkapa (back surgery) are out.

Nuggets - C Marcus Camby (strained left groin, flu) is probable; G Allen Iverson (sprained right ankle) is questionable; F Kenyon Martin (right knee surgery) is out.

Notes: Camby has missed four games in a row but vowed Saturday night to return against the Warriors. "I'll be out there Monday," he said. Iverson, meanwhile, is feeling better but remains a game-time decision. He has missed six of the past seven games.
 
Flounder - The way LAC came out yesterday would say the 1st H (and versus Cle). Right now though losing faith in a Piston play as its getting expensive. Looking back at last years meetings(only to look for some key angles) I noticed Brand and Kaman played extremely well in the 2meetings and you replace Wallace with Webber. Last meeting in Motown was the exact same trip. Well not exact but same time of season and such. They didnt have Cassell either. The difference is that road trip last season LAC played real well going 4-2. Now we know they are struggling and have to question what they have left in a 5 in 7 spot.

Basically this game looks expensive above -8.5 and for me I am staying away. Something of interest is the 1st H over if it continues to get cheaper... GL

Satyr- That line has thrown be for a loop. I think its a combination of a few things. First Harrington also being hurt and questionable for tonite's contest. I guess there is a slight chance Baron Davis returns but I doubt it. Camby I didnt realize vowed to play and AI is gametime. Basically with Camby I would have expected about -6.5 but factor Harringtons absence to an already depleted team...

So basically I dont know what to make of this situationa nd wont strain myself till later in the evening till this picture becomes clearer. 217 Tota is higher then I expected as well.. GL bro

Young Hollywood - Welcome and GL. I tend to agree its really a matter of DET interest here. By interest I mean they havent played well as chalk so maybe there more concerned with simply winning and preserving themselves then taking it to a team for 48 minutes. Inconsistent bench play also doesnt help or possibly playing up or down to an opponent. Even playing well now they are having a tough time covering spreads above -5. All season 6-12 ATS laying more then 5 at home and 2-4 ATS since Billups returned in that spot. So this is a concern for me. On paper the way things set up The Pistons SHOULD really lay an ass whipping to the Clippers. My worry is LAC comes out to play big time here after holding a team meeting and coming out somewhat flat yesterday. Though it was the stretch before half that ruined them. They come out strong in the 2nd Half. What I am saying is while the situation is against them motivation might be more with LAC then DET here. For me hard to say so I am sitting on the sidelines...again GL

Duy and cakeoff- Thats the way it seems to work..call me the King of overthinking!! GL
 
One more :

1st Half -5.5 Denver {3units}

Lets face it GSW is trouble. They already struggle on the road & on no rest. Factor in Harrington banged up with the head shot and elbow , Baron Davis Game time decision , Stephen Jackson I believe testifying in Indy court today , Pietrus is out. Thats 4 huge questions compared to just the AI issue for Denver with Camby playing. Under the radar is how well Jasikevicius played last nite as did Azubuike .
 
For the moment I have changed my mind on the Hawks play so just two plays and nothing on the Hawks side its moving to 9 now
 
Nut, isn't this Denver line more in accordance with AI playing...?

Seems long to me. I'm on it, don't get me wrong...but just in terms of line discussion, it strikes me as high.
 
SportsNut said:
Ausitin- Dont think its low about where it should be since Tor is slightily ahead of LAC. Just looking at how these teams are playing I think 7.5/ 8 presents more value for the Pistons. Clippers just dont look like they are interested no matter what they say. With a team that can really defend like DET it could get ugly again. The total I would think its around mid 180's final so I am laying for now....tough card...
Click to expand...

Toronto slightly ahead of LAC, that would be a vast understatement to me...
I would gladly lay 2 or maybe 2.5 points on TOR vs LAC on neutral court. Clips so overrated and TOR so underrated. Remember TOR beat this team on the road, in a game they dominated, without Bosh/Calderon and Garbajosa. Then easily dismantled LAC in their revenge game in a game they did not even cared to play defense. In the light of this that DET line is low IMO and only questionmark would be Detroit overlooking this weak nonconference foe after beating TOR and SAS on deck. With LAC 3 in 4 on the road and end of long trip I would personally put this one a couple of points higher. Do not like laying points in general though so undecided still...
 
redbearde said:
Nut, isn't this Denver line more in accordance with AI playing...?

Seems long to me. I'm on it, don't get me wrong...but just in terms of line discussion, it strikes me as high.
Click to expand...


I thought about that. It does seem if AI is priced in . I could have sworn if all the injured parties were out we would have seen 5 ish. With Camby then maybe 6.5 so 9 was a shock(cause that would have ben my guess with AI). Now Harrington looks less then 100% and Jackson had the court thing and some travel involved. If thats so I owuldnt take it as he is playing but take more it as the books consider there is a chance he may play. If he is announced OUT then they have less risk then if he played. SO maybe they are protecting themselves...really just guessing...Your probably gonna have DEN money so to open it at -6 then AI plays would put alot more risk on your shoulders . Where as a late change kinda screws the bettor more then sportsbook. Makle any sense?



Hard to not like DEN here went 1st H thinking they would jump on GSW.
 
swede said:
Toronto slightly ahead of LAC, that would be a vast understatement to me...
I would gladly lay 2 or maybe 2.5 points on TOR vs LAC on neutral court. Clips so overrated and TOR so underrated. Remember TOR beat this team on the road, in a game they dominated, without Bosh/Calderon and Garbajosa. Then easily dismantled LAC in their revenge game in a game they did not even cared to play defense. In the light of this that DET line is low IMO and only questionmark would be Detroit overlooking this weak nonconference foe after beating TOR and SAS on deck. With LAC 3 in 4 on the road and end of long trip I would personally put this one a couple of points higher. Do not like laying points in general though so undecided still...
Click to expand...


I do agree. Guess to me slight did mean about 2 points on neutral court where it means something else to another...Thats the key is DET taking medicore teams seriously?? Doesnt seem like going 6-13 ATS laying 5 or better at home and failing twice vs Boston and Milw as DDs. I rather take a cheap fav or wait till halftime then grab one that is worst case correct
 
My thoughts on the Jazz/Hawks game:

After watching the Jazz get outrebounded 50-36 on Saturday I'd expect a huge effort by them on the glass tonight. Sloan isn't one to screw around when it comes to effort stats (reb) and I think it was probably the main focus of practice on Sunday. Not sure if it was Okur being sick or the four day layoff, but they couldn't rebound for shit on Saturday. I have a strong feeling the Jazz control the boards tonight and coast to an easy victory over the Hawks. I was really hoping for a -7, but with the B2B I can see why the # is where it is. With the Hawks starting 2-0 on the roadie I can see them being pretty content tonight on a B2B. The big unknown is their memory of the last meeting when they blew a huge lead and got beat in the 4th qtr 40-13. Any other team or situation and I'd expect a bit of revenge, but I'm not sure I expect it out of this young group after two upset victories. Either way I'd play the ML as much as the points as they've only covered 3 games on the road this year they didn't win SU (one of those was an 8 point loss). Just my .02.
 
swede said:
Toronto slightly ahead of LAC, that would be a vast understatement to me...
I would gladly lay 2 or maybe 2.5 points on TOR vs LAC on neutral court. Clips so overrated and TOR so underrated. Remember TOR beat this team on the road, in a game they dominated, without Bosh/Calderon and Garbajosa. Then easily dismantled LAC in their revenge game in a game they did not even cared to play defense. In the light of this that DET line is low IMO and only questionmark would be Detroit overlooking this weak nonconference foe after beating TOR and SAS on deck. With LAC 3 in 4 on the road and end of long trip I would personally put this one a couple of points higher. Do not like laying points in general though so undecided still...
Click to expand...


Have to say that I think the Spurs are the #1 reason I wouldn't lay big points with the Pistons tongiht. It's a 1st half bet or nothing if you're on the Pistons IMO.
 
Good stuff JPicks. I have ATL +8.5 was going to wash out of it and now its back to -8 so who knows I just may keep it. I think Utah has a rebounding edge but they cant play any man defense. You have undersized Fisher at the 2 and even if Williams slides over he's only 6'4. Basically thats why 2 guards have destroyed Utah this year. Enter JJ... but hawks seem to be a very public play and I hate that.....Naturally the one guys minutes I would worry about were JJs 46 last nite. Everyone else should eb somewhat fresh .

Situational I hate it for ATL and that is what scares me really..
 
Plays:

Over 187 Det {2units}
Over 98 -115 team Det {2units}
Denver -5.5 {3units}
Hawks +8.5 {3units} ML +330 {1/2unit}
Under 94.5 1st H Utah {3units}

Think thats it really crap card....see what HALF brings us
 
hope i can get clippers +10.5 for the game at the half hold the lead Detriot !!!
 
we are on the same side :cheers: got clips +4.5 for 2units and over 92 for .5 unit :shake:
 
Plays: 2-3 -2.30

Over 187 Det {2units} -2.20
Over 98 -115 team Det {2units} -2.30
Denver -5.5 {3units} +3.00
Hawks +8.5 {3units} ML +330 {1/2unit} -3.80
Under 94.5 1st H Utah {3units}+3.00

2nd H : -0.50

LAC +4.5 {3units} -3.30
Over 92 {2units}-2.20
Nuggets -4 {5units} +5.00


Nothing like having the game correct and then fucking it up...Det / LAC
 
Last edited:
Can the Clippers face a worse opponent then Det? The offense is struggling failing to break 90 in Indiana , Cle , Philly and NYK. Pistons have struggled somewhat as home chalk but -8 looks good to me. LAC didnt show up in Indy today so why would they in DET? Definetly some issues with Maggette and him wanting to be there. Hard to believe LAC can crack 90 points in DET and was thinking about team UNDER but would prefer 90 or better and probably wont do better then 89.5 by the time it comes out tmrw. LAC is 2-4 SU on the trip sneaking by Philly by 1 and smoking the Celtics enough said. Other central squads like Cle and Ind smoked them by double digits and now they get the best the Central has to offer.

So basically I felt this total should be 188-189 range so really no value. I would actually expect it to drift lower and Pistons should crack 100. So Imigt be inclined to play DET team over and LAC team under plu sthe Pistons. One would think LAC is fatigued at the end of a trip and may have mailed it already.


<LI class=more>Clippers are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. <LI class=morecool>Clippers are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. <LI class=morecool>Clippers are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. <LI class=more>Pistons are 23-11-1 ATS in their last 35 vs. NBA Pacific. <LI class=morehot>Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. <LI class=more>Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
 
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