2.10

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Grinded a small profit on Friday.

-Have to lean towards DET right now. We saw what Indy did to Tor and I think its a similiar type defeat here. Tor is 1-3 SU when playing at home thn traveling this year .

- Operation fade NJN continues and this is probably the last stop. Orlando should have some momentum after Howards amazing buzzerbeater . You cant say NJ has payback cause they hd beaten ORL prior to last meeting. Think ORL might play a 3 guard set which is all for offense so that would make me play an Over bot otherwise my lean was und 187.

- Hornets playing well and Memphis stinks away. Now factor how bad Mem is on back to backs and they played OT as well. Grizz 5-9 ATS but 0-14 SU on backends....

-Seems to be alot of value in Char with payback on there minds. There are better suited for backends but are coming off tough OT loss. Think the 1st H under looks attractive

- Knicks have won 5 straight in the series including OT thriller @ MSG. Have to take the points with Boozer hurt and AK-47 possibly injured. Alot of points IMO.....

be back tmrw
 
8 points is nice when you're a live dog

btw nice hit on the moneyline with my hawks
J Smooth:smiley_acbe:
J Chill :smiley_acbe:
J Cool :smiley_acbe:
 
Thanks cakeoff! Been caught up with CBB all day. damn the Hawks were just that easy last nite. SHould have really pounded that sucker . BOL today
 
7:30 Pm:

Magic 1st H +3 -115 {4units}
Magic +5.5 {2units} ML +200 {1unit}

Decided on the 1st Half because ORL has faded after Halftime vs Tor and @ NJ already. Guess you could even include MILW in that discussion. The Magic are playing 4th and 5 which IMO appears to have inflated the line some. NJ as I have been saying is on the worlds longest road trip. Traveling for every game since the start of the new year. They rarely and you can doublecheck this in there recent games win both halves. Which leaves the 2nd H value as open.

Simply put NJ is playing all close games of late and ORL smoked them recently. Which was on the heels of collapse at NJ a few days earlier. So both 1st H meetings ORL has dominanted. Last nite ORL employed a 3 guards set to comeback vs SA so that might happen here. WHich is keeping me off an under play. Realy Dwight Howard should have his way. Hopefully he keeps that goose egg in mind at NJ. NJ is 4-6 last 10 with 2 buzzer beating wins and a few buzzer beating losses. That clearly could happen again. One cause there FT shooting has been poor but really both shoot poorly from the line. ORL is banged up but we know so has been NJ.


Lean : Under 187 ORL but waiting till HALFTIME>
The Pistons are my lean and simply note sure I will touch such a tight game. Tight total and tight spread..though I had Tor @ -6.5 so those 7.5 seems high....Should be a great game but would GUESS DET -7 . Under 191/192.

Under 192 .5Det {2units}
:cheers:
 
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8pm

Personally its hard to imagine a Memphis UNDER here but it seems some big / respected money has been hitting the Memphis UNDERS and correctly. Just like with the coaching switch they were hitting the OVERS. So word of caution on the total. Memphis has stunk on the road since the new coach well okay really all year. They played well @ Houston and since are 1-5 SU and ATS away with the improbable OT upset @ Utah. So maybe we have another bad team who its SU win or Non ATS cover.

Memphis is 0-14 on back to backs but manageable 5-9 ATS. However if they dont win they probably wont cover , right?? Factor in a hard fought OT win against a resting opponent. Having Paul , West and Jackson show up even for minor scraps on the injury list is worrisome.

My problem with the under is Memphis has really not socred below 90 execpt the Bulls game and we has basically given up apprx 112 per away.
I do think NO is sort of due for an Under afterthe last 2 OT meetings though.


So looking at Hornets -8 / Under 202 or 1st H to a lesser degree

Hornets -8 {4units}
1st H -4.5 {2units}

Disregard my comments on the UNDER and the TOTAL they appear inaccurate. Total now 204. Like I said its hard to see how this would go under 202 so I will wait till HALFTIME to get involved ...whiuch basically means like the over but fear a slow start
 
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8:30

Under 209.5 Milwaukee{5units}

With Denver likely missing AI and Camby (this play is based on them out) and Redd still not returning I think this line is way to high. Denver has laready been in an offensive funk and had a great 3rd Q last nite. Melo was on a mission, but the stud has been either bad or awesome on backends this season. With Patterson guarding him hoping for bad...

The Nuggets have scored 102 , 87 and 91 last three away. Even at home they are in the low 100s looking at regulation only. They played in Den and Nuggets won 104 -92 . Since then we had the trade. Den is missing three guys who played well for them in that win Boykins, AI and Camby. They do have Melo and Smith though with Blake. Milw did not have Villaneuva last meeting.

Bucks have had issues on defense but looks to me they finally adjusted and went overboard. They havent even been geting 200 totals let alone nearly 210. The Suns was 219 and no one cracked 100.

Thought the game would be a PK so have to see some value in Denver.....but they seem to a public dog so staying away for now.


Houston -10 {3units}

The Rockets have been beating up on bad teams at home see Portland , Philly and Seattle. Would say Char is a drop below with the injuries . Now factor Knight returned and is out of shape and they are off OT. Last time that happened GSW smoked them. Its either feast or faimine with Char away and I dont see them winning here . No matter what type revenge they have in mind.

The total was so attractive at 186 but at 183 it tight IMO. Its hard for to believe this Hous team cant crack 100 but then it becomes a matter of do they or dont they smoke them...

I could see Char real low 80s and Hous 100 or slightily more. Could play Rocket team over 97 if we get one....

So I guess really I still 183 UNDER or 1st H UNDER but think HOU over 97 team might have more value

Still prefer Houston Over 96 or 97 team. The value in the under has been SUCKED out down 4 points....Forgot to post this Over 96 -115 Houston team {4units}
 
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9PM:

Knicks +8 {2units} +7 {5units} +260 {1unit}

NYK won that classic OT game vs UTAH @ MSG shorthanded. The Knicks have won 5 straight in the series and it can be just luck or timing. The Jazz already w/o Boozer have key Mehmet Okur battling the FLU and AK-47 battling back spasms. Both mised FRI pratice.

The NYK are 11-6 ATS away catching better then 5 points and now 5-0 last 5 in the situation. They won SU @ Orlando , Indiana , Seattle and Portland witha 2 pt loss @ Wash catching 8. Utah is playing fairly well since Boozer went down but he will be missed here especially if both other stars are less then 100% .

Both teams have had extended rest with NYK on 3 days and Utah on 4 days.

With the long rest I am looking at the UNDER but not sure since this could come down to late FTs. Only twice has a team scored 100 in the past 10 series meetings and the last was 102 due to OT. NYK is an uncharasteritic 4 game UNDER run as well . For those looking at NYs stats on 3 days rest they are sort of misleading. The first game and I never know why they countthis is the opener that had Triple OT vs Memphis , the second instince is teh DET triple OT battle and the third is 106 -99 win vs Philly.

Under 202 {2units}
Under 101.5 1st H {1unit}
 
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Late game :

Over 206 Sonics {4units}

Going with series history here. Kings have played more like the team they were late last year but SEA simply doesnt defend anyone and gets Lewis back. I see alot of value in KINGS +4.5 and may add that depending on Bibbys status but he is the weak link of the Artest-Martin-Bibby trio he just so happens to play the most important position.

Korner says that injuries often cause overreactions at the window, but the fact remains that bettors do react to injuries and even mere rumors of them. In an effort to attract 50-50 action, sportsbooks often move the lines according to a players’ perceived value to his team.

So all my rants about perception being one of the biggest factors of handicapping hopefully was justified with this sentence from a Covers article.

Last meeting was Sac 109-100 in Seattle w/o Artest and Miller. Its been seven of eight overs in the series. Its hard for SEA to keep teams under 100 pts......Dont see a reson here..close game with both teams playing in the 100s...
 
Mehmet Okur (C)
2/10: Mehmet Okur will be a game-time call this evening, according to the Deseret News. He missed practice yesterday due to a stomach flu.

Michael Redd (G)
2/10: Although Michael Redd got through a full workout on Friday, he said it's doubtful that he'll be ready to play Saturday, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "I felt better than I did the other day," Redd said Friday. "I'm not going to get out there until I'm completely right, that's the bottom line. We're going in the right direction, and I was able to go a little harder today and we'll be re-evaluated (today). I most likely won't play tomorrow." It's possible that he'll take advantage of the upcoming All-Star break and wait to return from his sprained knee until afterward.

Call me crazy but until he seem as listed as OUT I wouldnt be suprised to see Redd play tonite
 
From radio reports I'm led to believe that you'll see Okur and AK tonight. AK for sure and Okur a very probable. I don't think it matters though as the 8 points or 7 are a couple to many. I'd love to bet the Knicks tonight, but being that I'll be about 7 rows behind the Jazz bench I'm just not so sure I could root against the home town team that close to the bench. I don't need Ararujo kicking my ass. GL on the play.
 
isn't funny how Orlando does such a good job at closing out the 1stq and then NJ goes on an 8-0 in the 2nd....gotta love the East
 
2nd H :

Under 93.5 Orlando {5units}
Orl +1 {2units}

Lets see 83 points with 6 to play before half...think they went in on a big time funk..... Magic are probably a uscker bet I will go for it.

Dont like DET. didnt like they way they finished the half. Gonna let my UNDER ride even though I could play 94.5 for a middle..
 
BeLIEve811 said:
The Carter 3 was from 30ft. Gave me the loss too. Give Det 2H a look, though i've seen it moved to 7.5
Click to expand...

With CBB I have alot of plays today if I could guessestimate nearly 65% of my losses were on freak shit and 1 or 2 pts off...what can I do....I just can get on a big roll...

Didnt liek how DET finished up took the lead and then gave it right back..
 
Looks like I might be paying twice for being a pussy in the DET game. Not sticking to the game plan and taking DET 2nd H and middling my total...
 
orlando shitting the bed...i guess beating SA and then playing the Nets was asking a bit too much
 
Austintx_05 said:
orlando shitting the bed...i guess beating SA and then playing the Nets was asking a bit too much
Click to expand...
nets were the play why you think the line was 5.5

a let down game and a revenge from that ass whoppin they took in ORL a few days ago

also 4 in 5 on the road for magic they had to work hard against SA last night when nets curse past BOS
 
Austintx_05 said:
orlando shitting the bed...i guess beating SA and then playing the Nets was asking a bit too much
Click to expand...

They were in trouble all game. ALways playing catch up in the end if youdont get the lead you will always see the team fade. Hanging around for the DOG isnt good enough. Happy I pounded the UNDER....2nd H but I knew looking at the line expectations were for NJN to roll and ORL to fold.....it happened....
 
2nd H @ Milw :

Bucks -2.5 {2units}
Over 103 MIDDLE {unit}

pissed I canceled out my 1st H under 106 there

2nd H @ Hous

Rockets -1.5 {2units}
Under 90.5 {1unit}
 
SportsNut said:
They were in trouble all game. ALways playing catch up in the end if youdont get the lead you will always see the team fade. Hanging around for the DOG isnt good enough. Happy I pounded the UNDER....2nd H but I knew looking at the line expectations were for NJN to roll and ORL to fold.....it happened....
Click to expand...
you never know HOU game can still go under its a blow out
 
thecakeoff said:
yeah i guess i should just post my plays with no analysis like you
Click to expand...

whats with the insults...?

While some posters like to write up novels on why they like the games...(this is not a shot at you Nut)...I choose not to. Why is it a bad thing if I choose not to go in depth...Mob Boss doesn't, yet I don't see him getting ripped
 
Austintx_05 said:
whats with the insults...?

While some posters like to write up novels on why they like the games...(this is not a shot at you Nut)...I choose not to. Why is it a bad thing if I choose not to go in depth...Mob Boss doesn't, yet I don't see him getting ripped
Click to expand...
why the insults because you choose to have slick remarks for almost everyone this site why cant i do the same to you? you cant take some?but you can give
 
not sure I recall slick comments towards you...but yes I can take...
 
Pistons 98-92 ...sick part is I had this as a 6 pt win and thats where it finished. I lucked out with the under but missed two ezee 2nd H plays with Stons and Over....
 
thecakeoff said:
you never know HOU game can still go under its a blow out
Click to expand...


Highly doubt it with so much UNDER money on it thats the way the universe works. There is only 76 pts and I think 74 is worst case (Hou 38-36). If there was to be some strong reasong for an UNDER 182 ity would be a slow 2nd Quarter but that never came. Unlike NJ which has 83 pts with 6 minutes to play in the HALF.
 
Seen it as high as 4.5 earlier and believed in closed at 3.5/3 really wasnt paying attention though. It just went more into my fade the returning star theory then anything. Line was adjusted Rashard Lewis and he wasnt going to me himself first game back so I felt it created some value on the Kings playing well
 
Even funnier that the HOU total landed on 187 after opening at 186. Can hear the UNDER players around the world saying they had the right play.. just like the lotto players who are off by a digit...
 
Not even watching. To many damn headaches watching. Like Orlando and now UND in MILW...lil GOOD LUCK and I could be undefetaed in the NBA tonite...I dont wantto chat about Utah until its finished(Sorry)
 
Sat Nite:9-4 +12.50 LOADED w/ BULLSHIT


Magic 1st H +3 -115 {4units} -4.60
Magic +5.5 {2units} ML +200 {1unit} -3.20
Under 192 .5Det {2units} +2.00
Hornets -8 {4units} +4.00
1st H -4.5 {2units} +2.00
Under 209.5 Milwaukee{5units}-5.50 (F'n 211 113 2nd H)
Over 96 -115 Houston team {4units} +4.00
Houston -10 {3units} +3.00
Knicks +8 {2units} +7 {5units} +260 {1unit} +6.00
Under 202 {2units} -2.20
Under 101.5 1st H {1unit}+1.00
Over 206 Sonics {4units}+4.00
Kings +3.5 {2units} +2.00


2nd Half:4-2 +4.60
Bucks -2.5 {2units}-2.20
Over 103 MIDDLE {unit} +1.00
Rockets -1.5 {2units} +2.00
Under 90.5 {1unit} +1.00
Under 93.5 Orlando {5units} +5.00
Orl +1 {2units} -2.20
<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->
 
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fucking just blew a 10 point lead now utah up by 1 with a few minutes left:hairout:
 
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