14th week

[mrpickem]

​

WEEK 13 - [12-10 +5.16u] SEASON - [115-133 -66.4u]​

6721 J.White pass receptions Over 3 -135 2.7/2 6725 J.White receiving yards Over 18½ -135 2.7/2 6811 J.Goff throws an interception -145 vs J.Goff no interception thrown 1.45/1 101 New England Patriots +4½ -105 vs Los Angeles Rams 3/2.86 101 New England Patriots +190 vs Los Angeles Rams 2/3.8 101 New England Patriots/Los Angeles Rams Over 43½ -105 3/2.86 101 New England Patriots +3 -110 vs Los Angeles Rams for 1st Half 1.1/1

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Mista.

 

[SIGO]

Hell yeah.

 

[UTSUX]

BOL

 

[mrpickem]

NFL has been brutal as usual, but I can't stop betting it, it looks so fucking easy :rofl:

151 Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions Over 55 -105
3/2.86
153 Tennessee Titans/Jacksonville Jaguars Over 52 -105
3/2.86
154 Jacksonville Jaguars +7½ -110
3/2.73
157 Arizona Cardinals/New York Giants Under 47 -107
3/2.80
161 Denver Broncos +3½ -110
3.15/2.86
163 Minnesota Vikings/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 52½ -101
3/2.97
164 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 -108
3/2.78
165 Kansas City Chiefs -7 -108
3/2.78
165 Kansas City Chiefs/Miami Dolphins Over 50½ -102
3/2.94
167 Indianapolis Colts -3 -102
3/2.94
167 Indianapolis Colts/Las Vegas Raiders Over 52½ -103
3/2.91
170 Seattle Seahawks -15 -102
3/2.94
169 New York Jets/Seattle Seahawks Under 48 -109
1.09/1
172 Los Angeles Chargers -1 -105
3/2.86
174 Philadelphia Eagles +8½ -106
3/2.83
173 New Orleans Saints/Philadelphia Eagles Under 42½ -105
3/2.86
176 San Francisco 49ers -3 +102
3/3.06
177 Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ +108
3/3.24

Props...
5011 R.Tannehill pass completions Over 21½ +110
2/2.2
5017 R.Tannehill pass attempts Over 31½ -110
2.01/1.83
5101 M.Glennon pass completions Over 23½ -105
2.01/1.91
5347 T.Boyd pass receptions Under 4½ -105
2.1/2
5351 T.Boyd receiving yards Under 55½ -115
2.07/1.8

• GB-DET OVER 55 ...Rodgers may be playing at the highest level of his career, absolutely unstoppable. DET defense, very bad. They have allowed 30 points to Mitch Trubisky, 41 to HOU and IND, and 27 to WAS in L6 games. They rank last in DVOA, but we know that. But the reason I love this over so much is on the opposite sides of the ball, mainly the GB D. One of the biggest misconceptions is that they have a good D, They just do not. 20th in DVOA, Jake Luton had a decent game against them, the Bears moved the ball (and then Trubisky had multiple turnovers), the Colts had no problem with them, and MIN ran all over them. DET gets Swift back, Stafford looked great a week ago. 35-21 cashes, and that may be the score heading into the 4th. lol
• TB -7 ...Hate to go against the Vikings, but their time has come. They have quietly been playing bad ball for 3 weeks now, losing at home to Dallas, last second wins at home vs CAR & JAX. They just can not seem to string together 4 solid quarters. TB is coming off a much needed bye, and knows it needs to win out to have any hope to win the division. Brady struggles with pressure, his worst games coming against teams in the top 10 in pass rush win rate (Rams, Chiefs, Saints). The vikings are 28th in that stat. Don't love laying a full 7, but the Bucs should get there. 34-20ish
• Dalvin Cook U 81.5 yards- If I think Tampa beats the Vikings handedly, they will have to shut down Cook. The Rams just ran for 200 yards on Thursday, against the Bucs? Leading rusher had 20 yards. The Bucs are first in rush defense, and Cook most likely never gets going. (still stalking this one)
• NYG-ARI U 47 ...been looking at this one awhile and finally took it. Nobody mentions the fact that AZ is a hail mary away from being losers of 5 straight. Kyler has looked bad in three straight games since injuring his shoulder on TNF vs SEA. NYG defense is good and their offense is not. The Giants run the ball a lot and try to shorten as many games as possible. Small note: Giants and Cardinals both rank in the top 5 in most points “given up” by kicking (kicking a fg on fourth and 1, punting on fourth and 4, etc) in the league. Two conservative coaches, 2 solid defenses, 1 bad offense and 1 offense heading in the wrong direction. This game will struggle to get past 35 much less 47.
• Seattle -15 ...any number under 20 I would still bet Seattle (I may lay -20.5 alt line for shits as well). Last week was it for the Jets. They gave it all they had and came up short. They have nothing left. Seattle lost to Colt Mccoy and now wants to win by 50, Jamal Adams may actually murder Sam Darnold and then turn around and give Gase the finger. The Jets have 2 healthy safeties, (they signed a third, who has not played in 2 years, and gave up a perfect passer rating in preseason in 2018), Crowder likely out, Mims out, Gore is back (yes that's a negative.) Watching whoever attempts to guard Metlcalf will be good. Seattle by 30+. This would be a max, but I will never max a team giving more than 10, no matter how good or bad the matchup is.
• NO /PHI U42½ ...going to continue taking Saints unders with Hill. Now they face Jalen hurts, definitely seeing a lot of runs, a lot of good defense, and another boring game. Eagles D is good enough to stop the Saints, ranking 15th in DVOA and 12th in DVOA against the run. I do not see Philly scoring more than 10-14, and if the Saints score 35 to beat me, so be it.
• TEN-JAX sacks u3 ...this is weekly bet as sacks just rarely happen in Titans games, and the Jaguars cannot rush the passer either. (still stalking this one)

 

[mrpickem]

​	2 more props​
	6031 Dalvin Cook rushing yards Under 83½ -130 2.6/2 6429 J.Taylor rushing yards Over 52½ -130 2.6/2

 

[mrpickem]

​	SUNDAY - [12-12 -1.05u]​
	179 Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns Over 45½ -107 3/2.8 180 Cleveland Browns +3 +105 vs Baltimore Ravens 3/3.15

Should have had decent 10-7 day yesterday, but had to fire in 7 props(2-5), so I got juiced again

Tightly lined divisional home dogs off road win cover 60% in SDQL history...