13th week

[mrpickem]

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WEEK 12 - [18-15 +3.5u]

454 Miami Dolphins -10 -107 vs Cincinnati Bengals 3/2.8 454 Miami Dolphins -6½ -110 vs Cincinnati Bengals for 1st Half 3/2.73 453 Cincinnati Bengals/Miami Dolphins Under 43 -105 3/2.86 455 Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans Over 50½ -109 3/2.75 456 Houston Texans +3 +105 vs Indianapolis Colts 3/3.15 457 Jacksonville Jaguars/Minnesota Vikings Over 51 -101 3/2.97 461 Las Vegas Raiders -7½ -105 vs New York Jets 3/2.86 463 New Orleans Saints -2½ -115 vs Atlanta Falcons 3/2.61 465 Cleveland Browns +4 -103 vs Tennessee Titans 3/2.91 465 Cleveland Browns/Tennessee Titans Over 52½ -107 3/2.8 468 Seattle Seahawks -10½ -105 vs New York Giants 3/2.86 469 Los Angeles Rams -2½ -109 vs Arizona Cardinals 3/2.75 473 New England Patriots +1½ -105 vs Los Angeles Chargers 2.1/2 473 New England Patriots +103 vs Los Angeles Chargers 1/1.03 6633 J.Richard receiving yards Over 9½ -115 3/2.61

-Saints -2½ ...Even though Taysom Hill sucks, and he can't throw the ball...the Saints still have great supporting offensive pieces, good coaching, and a solid defense, and only 3 to cover? Thomas and Kamara have no injury designation and should be good to go. Jenkins out on defense but I'd still expect the Saints defense to bother Matt Ryan and sack him a couple times. Saints won't give up turnovers like LA did last week. Dan Quinn is gone and this is a slightly different Falcons team, both Julio and Gurley are questionable, so that doesn't make things easy for Atlanta. I'll also consider the under here. Hill is shitty, and Falcons offensive pieces banged up.
-Fish 1H -6½ ...Miami is 3rd in the league in 1st half scoring/ Cincy 23rd. There’s no Burrow, and I don’t see the Bengals running back a kick two weeks in a row. They’ll struggle to move the ball all game, and Miami should pull away early and stay there. 24-6 kinda game.
-Jalen Richard Over 9½ receiving yards ...the Raiders RB1 is out, the next running up on the depth chart is Devontae Booker, and if you look through Booker's gamelog the one thing you'll notice is that he does not catch the ball very often. This leaves us with Jalen Richard, who is essentially the opposite of Booker. Richard has been with Gruden/Raiders for multiple years, he should be the clear 3rd down back today. Derek Carr has often shown a tendency to dump off to the RBs. This season even in games with all the other RBs healthy, Richard has hit this prop 7 games out of the 10 games he's played. Without Josh Jacobs around Richard may well hit this prop in the 1st quarter.

 

[C-MAN]

Oh sweet ginger ... might tail that Mia 1H play. Already on Cincy TTU17 pretty big. GL today.

 

[mrpickem]

interesting angle...
when a teams score at least 17 points less than their projected total and then face adversarial circumstances (away or underdog) they tend to put forth their best effort and have cashed 61.5% of the time since 1992

RAIDERS

 

[mrpickem]

some random horsey...

• Detroit at Chicago: Lions just fired coach and GM. Chicago has Mitch back. It seems the Lions can't win games without Galloday and Swift. It already appears Galloday is out. Swift is questionable and even if he plays should carry a limited snap count. Chicago essentially starting their playoffs with this game.
• Cincinnati at Miami: Bengals starting Brandon Allen again. He didn't look horrible last week, however without a 105yrd kickoff return for CIN, that games 4th quarter wouldn't have been nearly as close as it was. Miami brought back the FitzMagic last week and he delivered an ABC performance against the struggling Jets, keeping Miami in the playoff contention with an outside shot at still winning the AFC East. While my algo has them with an almost 90% chance of winning, it only has them covering the spread around 42%.
• Indianapolis at Houston: Colts had a hard fall last week, giving up the divisional lead to the Titans. Houston is playing much better now but suffered the loss of two players to suspension this week. My algo has this one closer to a 24-25 IND and thinks Indy only covers 34% of the time. May even sprinkle a little ML on HOU.
• Jacksonville at Minnesota: Jax played tough last week and is sticking with Glennon. Minny has an opportunity to be .500 for the first time this year and an outside shot at the playoffs. Cook and Theilen are back and I expect Min to get the win here. However, Algo only likes a MIN cover 39% of the time.
• Las Vegas at New York Jets: One would expect the Raiders to take care of business against the winless Jets, however last weeks blowout loss vs. the Falcons doesn't instill the most confidence .Also, last years similar spot and loss is a little scary: " Las Vegas (6-5), in a battle with Miami, Indianapolis and Baltimore for the final two wild card spots in the AFC, were in a similar position last season. And that 3-7 Jets squad thumped the 6-4 Raiders, 34-3, as quarterback Sam Darnold played arguably his best game as a professional, going 20-of-29 passing for 315 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions while also rushing for another score. " Carr traveling East for a 1pm game The Jets have decided to roll with Darnold as long as he is healthy. My algo has this as a projected 27-20 LV with a cover% of only 54.
• New Orleans at Atlanta: Divisional rematch of two weeks ago. For some reason, just like last year, ATL defense played horribly in the first half, but decides to show up for the second half of the season. They were a little lost in the first match up, but I expect them to have a better defensive showing this time around. NO is 2-0 with Taysum starting. I expect their defense to continue to perform, especially against a divisional rematch. However, I don't think Taysum will fair as well this time around. ATL +3, @ home, in the rematch, plus no Brees? ALGO favors ATL points, and the Under. Can't always back the model
• Cleveland at Tennessee: BIG match up here. Two playoff contenders in the same conference. Both have amazing running games. Cleveland gets back Miles Garret this week. Tenny may be getting back Humphries. Algo has this as TEN -3.5 and a cover of the 5.5 only 36%. More excited to watch this game and check out 3 of the top 5 running backs right now. (Maybe only 2, but Hunt is pretty ok)
• New York Giants at Seattle: Giants HAVE won 3 in a row, and their defense is looking decent. However, those wins have come against WAS, PHI and CIN -- teams with a combined record of 9-22-2. (and Cincy could have been a loss if Burrow didn't go down) Seattle is rounding into Superbowl form and on top of their defense starting to gel, get Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde is back after injuries sidelined both for a month. While I expect Seattle to win almost always, their M.O. is winning close games. So double digit points are kinda scary but YOLO, so fuckit.
• LA Rams at Arizona: Rams horrible loss last week. It's like Shanahan just knows how to out coach McVay. Zona hasn't really won a game (besides a last
  
  second hail marry) in a month. If they were a playoff contender, they should have taken care of NE last week. Majority of $$ on AZ right now, yet the line opened at -1 and has climbed to LA -3 in most spots. RLM on the minority always has me thinking...
• Eagles at Packers: Eagles have looked like trash. Packers have shined like gold. Model has this only GB -5.5 so as the line climbs higher, I can't help but look at Philly. Their perception is trash, however their defense is decent. Tied for second in sacks this year and 5th in 3rd down completion percentage. (their defense vs opponents offense) If this was a normal year I would LOVE some Philly sprinkles. lol
• New England at LA Chargers: I should avoid this game. I personally love Bill B and this year have taken a liking to Justin Herbert. The line is almost nothing so I can't see much value here in a coin flip game. But Bill needs it and wants it. I should avoid this game.
• Denver at Kansas City: Primetime divisional battle. Does anyone give Denver a chance to Win this game? Outside of Mahomey getting taken out of the game and a ton of penalties giving DEN great field position for a ton of scores...No. But also, 13 points isn't nothing.

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 451 Detroit Lions/Chicago Bears Under 44 -108
  2.16/2
• 451 Detroit Lions/Chicago Bears Under 22 -105 for 1st Half
  2.1/2

 

[mrpickem]

Always love a live dog and road dogs less than 6 outside of their division are over 60% ATS last 3 years

PATS & BROWNIES FIT THE BILL TODAY

 

[mrpickem]

​	SUNDAY - [8-8-1 +1.5u]
	487 Washington Football Team/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 43½ -109 3/2.75

Had to add 2 losers just before kick or would have did ok...still any profit is a good day :haveanidea:

 

[mrpickem]

• 485 Buffalo Bills +1½ -102 vs San Francisco 49ers
  1.02/1
• 488 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 +100 vs Washington Football Team
  1/1

WTH, I need some action so I'm fading the line movement for small token plays

 

[mrpickem]

​	MONDAY - [2-1 +2.75u] WEEK 13 - [10-9 +4.25u]
	483 Dallas Cowboys +9 -105 vs Baltimore Ravens 2/1.9 483 Dallas Cowboys/Baltimore Ravens Over 45½ -105 2/1.9 483 Dallas Cowboys/Baltimore Ravens Over 7½ -105 for 1st Quarter 1.05/1

Having an ok week, time to finish strong!​

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