12/21

Marlo Stanfield said:
Do you ever watch football True? Teams fuck up dude. Are you telling me the Patriots were a joke last year? They are single handily the best team that has ever been assembled?

The Steelers there a joke? This team will represent the AFC in the SB, they played almost the worst game I have ever seen? Obviously there a joke to huh?
Click to expand...

marlo, i've played football even at the community college level. When someone fumbles, fine, it might be good d on the otherside... When it happens 3 times you get a fuckin clue and hold on to the ball. It's about focus. If it comes down to holding onto the ball versus getting an extra half yard, you hold onto the fucking ball. Only players that have no focus dont learn from their mistakes. If they fumbled 4times in the 1h, and fixed it, fine...They fumbled ALL the way to the last seconds.

I'm not dogging on you if you love the vikings. All i am saying is that it's a matter of having your head in the game when it comes to fumbling 6times. any NFL calibur team that fumbles 6times is a joke, i dont care...
 
This game sets up much like the earlier Tenny game . If NY were to lose basically everything they accomplished in 08 would go out the window. Sprinkle in the fact Dal and Philly lost the Giants can basically wrapup there season here especially since Minnesota lost today .

On Carolina they have looked very solid the past 2 weeks playiing TB and Denver but what has either of those teams shown lately ??? Really nothing IMO . They lost their BIG 345 pound DT and face the statisical rushing leaders in the NFL the Giants. Not good . Plus the OL which has had issues but certainly played better lost Vincent and he started every game the only lineman to do so...Then we look @ Carolina what has really been impressive about their play on the road ? Lost @ Atlanta badly , won @ GB in a close one , won @ Oakland setting lows for offensive stats and QB numbers , @ TB didnt look so good , couldnt do much @ Minny losing 20-10 and stole the opener @ SD...They have had an issue with their nickel back getting smoked ....

Just dont see Carolina winning here looking at everything . Then again said the same about Minnesota and they fumbled SEVEN times losing FOUR which 3 came in plus territory ...So who knows....

Giants off 2 losses get Jacobs back here and with the monster DT out that is HUGE especially since they have had issues in pass defense ....The NY defense has played well IMO vs Philly and @ Dallas ...

Look at NYG last 8 games no real bad teams ...@ Wash and @ ARizona the 2 softest opponents and they are better then most NFL teams ..Dallas and Philly twice , Balt , @ Pitt as well ...


So getting into this game BIG....

Team Totals
Carolina Under 17 +100 {Level2}
NYG Over 20.5 -115 {Level1}

ATS:
1st H NYG -2.5 -115 {Level3}
NYG -3-125{Level2}
NYG -3.5 -120 {Level3}
ML -200 {Level2}

Total:
Under 38.5 {Level2}

Teaser:
Giants+6 , Bears+6 and NYG Under 48.5{Level2}
Giants +2 and Under 44.5 {Level1}

1st Score:
Giants -130 {Level1}

Thinking -
NYG 21 CAR 14.

Good Luck .....burnt out after another frustrating session..:cheers:









 
I will agree its about identity-- I mean good teams like Atlanta, Tenny and pitts are focussed, hence they dont turn the ball over and fumble.

It is what is, not taking any sides but it is focus, unfocussed teams fumble. Good teams practice not fumbling and hold onto the ball-

It is true, atlanta beat Minny as they were 1000 times more solid fundamentally than the vikings. I have no idea who is coaching or calling plays for ATL, but they are a genius, they dont fuck up ever, and are like precise as can be in the NFL-

They dont lack focus and hence are in playoffs. Vikings are talented but do lack focus as do Jets, eagles and Denver and they alll likey wont be in the playoffs.
 
Any Given Sunday.Thats how the NFL is basically.Shit happens. It would not surprise me to see the Lions next week beat the Packers.The NFL is a funny league. The best teams lose. This isn't CFB where a LSU plays Appy State for example. My kids could pick that winner. Now are the Vikings better than ATL? IMO ...Nope. ATL has a rookie QB who is better than any QB the Vikes offer by far.If the Vikes get them a premier QB then watchout but until that happens they will struggle.AP can't carry the load. Teams know that all they have to do is slow down the run game and wait for the fuckups.They will happen and thats what will end the Vikings season soon and for that matter every season.But when the Vikes find that franchise QB then lord have mercy because the puzzle will be complete.
 
Thanks fellas ...biggoob , true blue , Sammy ,marlo ...

Just disgusted at myself ...biggest struggle of 2008 for me has been figuring out the strength of plays ...win the biggies lose the mediums and the small ones when I win the mediums and smalls lose the biggies....

Lost 3 games I was scared of and still played KC , Det and Zona then flipped from original leans on Buffalo and Seahawks to the losing side at some point this week....Just cant eliminate the crap these days...

GL Confident NYG gets it done ...

FWIW the Vikings picked a terrible time to just fall to pieces ..I knew it was dead after the 1st 2nd H possession and they fumbled again. They are maybe 5 teams in the NFL who couldnt win a game given that many chances . Not knocking ATL but they couldnt stop Minnesota and AP wasnt even super involved . Now more then ever I think the South is weak as hell with TB losing again...

:cheers:
 
If you dont think ATL fucks up then you didnt see they were -7 in turnovers last 3 games or watch the TB game. I am not chosing sides either because you are right a team who can clinch their division at home and does that is not focused . All I can say is just terrible time to start believing how good people say you are ...

ATL scored on a long drive and Minny answered , ATL ball they punt Berrian fumbles at his own 22 , short field TD and the Minny takes down into the red zone again and fumbles , this shit went on for 2.5 quarters and Minny just handed ATL the game . You just cant win like that and ATL should win a game like that by 3 TDs....

AP has fumble issues and I didnt realize they were so bad until today unfortunately ...

I disagree with nawlins on this one. Nothinhg ATL did on offense was better then Minnesota . Tavaris Jackson shredded the ATL defense and AP was barely asked to do anything since they trailed the whole game ...ATL is a fraud it will come to pass eventually...would I rather have Matt Ryan as my franchise QB absolutely but would much rather have had Jackson off his last game and half at home vs ATLs defense the Ryan vs Minny.....Vikes choked...:shake:
 
ATL had 220 yds of offense and Minny was just shy of 400..

ATL had 5 possessions in the 2nd H and went 3 and out in 4 . The one they didnt they started at midfield and got a TD but Ryan fumbled and ATL recovered unlike what happened to Minny ...

Bottomline is Minny wasnt meant to win but that doesnt mean ATL beat them either :shake:
 
Rule 1 of 2009 --

Do Not ever BET a Favorire on the 1st H line regardless of sport ......dont know how mant times I have to lose a 1st H fav to learn it . Only 1st H DOG plays !

Second Half ...

Since I am in full I dont give a fuck mode how can I pass up NYG -3.5 +100 {level3) ..wouldnt advise anyone to tail just the trainwreck...in all seriousness just disgusted and once you make 1 big bet you have to be committed to making 2 .....

GL and great defense with though wind so far ...lol:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
This game sets up much like the earlier Tenny game . If NY were to lose basically everything they accomplished in 08 would go out the window. Sprinkle in the fact Dal and Philly lost the Giants can basically wrapup there season here especially since Minnesota lost today .

On Carolina they have looked very solid the past 2 weeks playiing TB and Denver but what has either of those teams shown lately ??? Really nothing IMO . They lost their BIG 345 pound DT and face the statisical rushing leaders in the NFL the Giants. Not good . Plus the OL which has had issues but certainly played better lost Vincent and he started every game the only lineman to do so...Then we look @ Carolina what has really been impressive about their play on the road ? Lost @ Atlanta badly , won @ GB in a close one , won @ Oakland setting lows for offensive stats and QB numbers , @ TB didnt look so good , couldnt do much @ Minny losing 20-10 and stole the opener @ SD...They have had an issue with their nickel back getting smoked ....

Just dont see Carolina winning here looking at everything . Then again said the same about Minnesota and they fumbled SEVEN times losing FOUR which 3 came in plus territory ...So who knows....

Giants off 2 losses get Jacobs back here and with the monster DT out that is HUGE especially since they have had issues in pass defense ....The NY defense has played well IMO vs Philly and @ Dallas ...

Look at NYG last 8 games no real bad teams ...@ Wash and @ ARizona the 2 softest opponents and they are better then most NFL teams ..Dallas and Philly twice , Balt , @ Pitt as well ...


So getting into this game BIG....


Team Totals
Carolina Under 17 +100 {Level2} Loss
NYG Over 20.5 -115 {Level1} Win

ATS:
1st H NYG -2.5 -115 {Level3}Loss
NYG -3-125{Level2} Win
NYG -3.5 -120 {Level3} Win
ML -200 {Level2} Win

Total:
Under 38.5 {Level2}Loss

Teaser:
Giants+6 , Bears+6 and NYG Under 48.5{Level2}Loss
Giants +2 and Under 44.5 {Level1}Loss

1st Score:
Giants -130 {Level1}Win

Thinking -
NYG 21 CAR 14.

Good Luck .....burnt out after another frustrating session..:cheers:
Click to expand...

2nd H
NYG -3.5 +100 {Level3} Win

34-28 not what I expected but after the Minny loss take it anyway I can get it....:cheers:
 
Nut - curious to hear your thoughts on the MNF

I'm not one to give you advice, but if you've been struggling w/ the amts, why not just flat bet? I seem to always struggle when I vary my amounts, I still do it tho, sometimes
 
Tito said:
Nut - curious to hear your thoughts on the MNF

I'm not one to give you advice, but if you've been struggling w/ the amts, why not just flat bet? I seem to always struggle when I vary my amounts, I still do it tho, sometimes
Click to expand...

I have thought about it . Definetly going to restructure the way I do things in the future though. I have flat bet at times when I wasnt posting . Definetly less"feeler" bets as I can see the time I put intime directly impacts the results . Problem is I get so used to playing them I almost feel like I am missing out when I dont. Which means I developed some bad habits .

Just when I look at what I am winning and losing do not feel by any stretch I am maximizing potential or profits ...One thing is I dont limit how much I play because my amounts are fairly conservative . I am lucky enough to have few disasterous days or prolongled slumps. A slump for me is small amounts or continually breaking even or vigging out . Just feel likes a good 4 or 5 months now where I have been sharp in my decision making ....

One thing is certain less garbage going forward and more structure ...

I'll be working out for certain...:shake:


Have my thoughts on the MNF game up shortly ...:cheers:
 
Quick thoughts for tonight might havbe time for more later ...

GB motivation is spoiler and vs a hated rival while Bears are trying to revenge the beatdown they caught @ GB while trying to keep their playoff dreams alive...I do wonder how GB shows here after losing 6 of 7 and being eliminated with another tough loss @ Jax last game.

I liked how the Bears defense responded NO and see that as a tougher test then GB. They only scarped by NO also fought it ass off in that game . The Bears defense made plays when it needed to for the most part and see that happening again.

The reason for GB success last meeting was Orton rushing back from injury and the fact GB ran right over them. Huge difference is the GB running game Home and Away .

Grant :
@ Det 15c 20yds
@ TB 15c 20 yds
@ Sea 33c 90 yds
@Tenny 20c 86yds
@Minny 16c 75yds
@NO 18c 67 yds
@Jax 21c 56yds

138c 414 yds 3.0 YPC but Home is 130c 622yds 4.8YPC(Huge difference )

Only 4 rushing TDS all year and just 1 @ Minny away ..

Bears allowing only 3.3 YPC at home and despite Grant's previous success not expecting it today.

Interested to see if FB Hall plays ....

GB reshuffling the secondary again putting Woodson back at CB but Al Harris was again hurt @ Jax but he should be okay maybe limited....

Does Clifton play effectively or limited on the OL? Also backup RB Brandon Jackson is banged up ...Plus very key is OL Mark Tauscher is OUT now and was playing in the home game vs CHI

Can Harrell return at DT?

GB weak against the run and with Forte playing and Peterson capable backup the longer the game stays closer the better for CHI who last time was down 2 TDS had to abandon the run and had an unhealthy QB in Orton......

Just dont see GB rising up and playing spoiler with all the BS that happened bewteen the players last week. CHI is playing better on defense lately and GB offense has not done enough IMO this season. Rodgers has played well but throwing in the freezing weather is going to be tough .

Thinking CHI 21 to GB 14.......also like the under in some fashion.....

Think CHI makeup makes then better suited in this freezing cold weather ....good ground game and good run defense .....

:cheers:
















 
Also ST should be a huge factor with Hester and Manning because GB has allowed a ton of big plays on kicks...
 
Monday Night Football Week 16

Alot of stuff tossed around so far for debate .

First thing with MNF games what we do remind ourselves ?? The SU win almost always covers the spread rendering the points meaningless. This year the points have come into play only 3 x so far in 16 games because we had 2 MNF games in the 1st week. The 3 were Zona vs SF , Dallas vs Philly and Pitt vs Balt ...Zona opened -10 and Dallas opened -9 but closed at -6.5 ...SU dogs have won only 3 x as well Minny @ NO , Pitt @ Wash and Browns @ Buffalo .....

So who do we think will win SU? GB is a solid team who has KC"itis" which is play well and find a way to lose late . GB has lost 4 straight and now 6 of 7 with 5 of those losses by 4 pts or less. To me this is important because if the game is close late I cant expect GB to find a way to win . Sure it would be fitting to happen today because they are out of the playoffs because they continually failed at this in other weeks.

I faded CHI when they hosted NO about 10 days ago and for the most part while NO probably should have won they didnt and couldnt . Now the Saints to me at this point are CLEARLY a better team then GB. We dont even have to look at the beatdown NO gave GB a few weeks back on MNF to remind us of that . It's clear when you see GB has 5 wins and the ONLY away wins are @ DET who has NO wins and @ Seattle . With Seattle Matt Hasselback didnt start and even Seneca Wallace didnt start . Yep , they beat Charlie Frye ! The other 3 wins they beat Minny on MNF week 1 by 5 points , they beat Indy the week after the Colts spanked Balt as Manning had 2 PICK 6s and think that was the Colts last loss and recently beating CHI when Orton came back from the ankle injury....

To illustrate how GB is a team built on perception just look at their lines . 14 games 7 wins and 7 losses with 4 straight defeats ATS . Funny thing is every line but 1 has been between -3.5 and +3.5 basically indicating they are playing teams of comparable strength. Though road chalk mixes that up . Anyway only 1 time did they lay more then 3.5 or get more then 3.5 and that was vs Houston recently and lost SU as 7 pt favs !

I keep reading that GB played Jax better then Indy did . I think people need to take their BLINDERS off . The Colts went into Jax extremely banged up starting DTs both out and Addai /Harrison didnt play just to name a few and Peyton Manning had a passer rating of 140 !!!!! Credit Jax for showing up and playing hard but they did not play better then Indy . They had Collier there to inspire them , they went for a 4th and 1 at their own 30 in the 1st Quarter , and everything they did offensively came off momentum. Look it up . Then when the momentum switched to Indy what happened ? Garrard throws a pick 6 . As for the last drive well Indy didnt slam the door failing to pick up a 3rd and 1 = again thats momentum !

The Jags played good and lost they didnt play better and maybe that was the balancing of not playing well vs GB and winning ....

I mentioned the difference in the running game on the road already see the above post . They lost Taucsher , Cliftion will play but who knows , backup RB Brandon Jackson is hurting but questionable . Mix in the FRIGID temp and passing is not going to be easy and remember the Saints struggled vs the Bears in the same conditions . Dont say NO is an indoor team because Brees has had some excellent games if you look up his stats in cold weather . Last week he completed 50% of his passes only. Factor in a team who due to injury struggled vs the run and has struggled against some pass attacks because of injuries and reshuffling in the secondary . GB is again reshuffling the secondary...

I think CHI who has played maybe even owned GB last few seasons will certainly be looking for payback from that 37-3 embarrassment . Off course the playoff scenario only helps out .

With GB alot of teams suffer infighting but last week was different IMO. When teammates are getting on eachother because no one noweheres to lineup or offensive players are lining up with no one near them. Its not drama queens battling about their role in the offense . It's teammates who dont where to be on defense and when doubt creeps in your head and you can no longer trust your teammates to be in the right position , ugly things can happen on defense....

Look at Aaron Rodgers play on the road as well . They only have away wins @ Det and @ Sea with its 3rd string QB !! Rodgers passer rating is about 80 on the road with 11 TDs to 8 Ints but take away the 2 wins and he has 6TDs to 8 Ints in the 5 losses with two 3INT games @ TB and @ NO. At home 68% completion on the road 59% (12TD to 4 INT at home also). he has been sacked 30 times with games seeing NONE Minny , Indy and Chi at home otherwise in 7 away games 19 times sacked with 3 coming in the 2 wins .....

GB defense has allowed at least 19 points in every away game (Seattle doesnt count when Charlie Frye is the QB and every offense starter is out ). That game was @ Tenny and GB held the Titans to FGs but Tenny had 6 chances to score in 11 possessions...

The Bears themselves who have 6 losses have seen 3 by a FG or less @ Car , Tb , @ Atl and lost by a TD at home to Tenny when Orton was out . Only bad losses were @ GB and @ Minny which they in a blink unraveled and Minny took over after that ..

Silly trend Bears are 13-2 SU last 3 season laying -3.5 to 9 points and 38-14 in that role SU since 1992 . Again SU on MNF has come to mean winner ATS more often then not......This is the 1st BEARS MNF game of the year and GBs 3rd and 4th Primetime game ....the GB offense has looked medicore in all 3 vs Minny , vs Dallas and @ NO .......

Mix in the HUGE Special TEAMS play of Manning and Hester and thats another edge for CHI ......

Go back to the end of the last year 12/23/07 ....game was played in near similiar conditions around 15 degrees . Remember the lack of offense in that one ? Bears did win 35-7 but only 500 combined yards of total offense . Think there was about 3 plays gained more then 20 yds and one was Grants 66 yd TD run . There was a pun block for a TD and INT for a TD by Chicago late in the game. Only 250 combined passying yards Brett Favre vs Kyle Orton .

Plays :
Chicago Bears -3-130 {Level3} & another play at some point
Will be adding another Level3 play on Chicago but trying to see where the line goes and maybe I can get -3 cheaper but will not let it run past -4..

Under 40 trying for 41 {Level3}..

Basically CHI impressed me in some manners last week and GB is a step down then the Saints especially since that was NO season on the line and they still couldnt win. Bears just do crazy things to get points and it can be aggravating of your on the other side .

Last 2 weeks GB offense has struggled only 7 pts vs Houston until the 4th quarter and just 16 vs Jax despite success moving the ball. They have thrived trailing and rallying back but in this weather that will be tough to do ..

1st H Under 20 -105 {Level1}
Under 18.5 GB TT {Level1}

GL
 
Terrible play calling by Chicago. You would think they realize they are playing a team with nothing lose . Get the INT have the ball at GB 34 and when its 3rd and 7 they have to be in 4 down territory . Obvious play selection in the 1st H as well .

Eventually the Bear defense tired when it was on the field forever after GB went with the punt fake . Until then Grnt had 7 carries for 2 yards but picked up 38 on the next 5 carries .

Even the last drive minute left a TO in your pocket run it on 3rd down and try to catch them off guard . No momentum for the Bears and they are struggling to create it by being ultra conservative and predictable IMO....

Orton had 5 attempts and Forte 8 carries until they last drive before half just terribly conservative and now they have lost momentum.....

Going to be tough to recapture it but they start with the ball in the 2nd H ...TOP was liek 20 minutes to 9.30 ....once the game became 14-3..

Hoping CHI wakes up but they played pussy ball this week unlike the game vs the Saints ....

No 2nd H play......:cheers:
 
Crazy ....GB played to conservative in the 2nd H ...thankfully I paid a ton of juice for -3 and got the push . If I didnt force the 2nd H would have been okay ....still decent enough ...
 
Good stuff SN I'm glad I bought the hook at -140 I seem to be struggling also with the amounts I play.
 
cinderfella said:
Good stuff SN I'm glad I bought the hook at -140 I seem to be struggling also with the amounts I play.
Click to expand...

Its funny of course that I feel like I everytime I mention that the winner on MNF usually doesnt have the spread involved I am jinxing it . Part of me was like your a fool for paying that for -3 because the trend is so obvious over the past 2 or so seasons and the paranoid part was like its going to fuck you if it dont pay it ....

One of these days I will get it figured out and my smallest play is small maybe that is the problem . Playing alot of things it feels insignificant to add a bunch of small plays ...

I am working on it ...

Thanks and GL ...:cheers:
 
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