12*11*06-NBA Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
74-51-6 (59.2%) +37.09 units

First things first, lets talk about some big moves with some totals:

-The Cleveland and New Orleans total opened at 184 and is currently 179 on Pinny.
-The San Antonio and Los Angeles Clipper total opened at 189 and has slipped back to 186.5
-The Dallas and Utah total opened 198 and is currently sitting at 194.5

Those are some drastic changes. I noticed many(including myself) leaned toward a Mavericks-Jazz Over tonight in SLC as pointed out in killas discussion thread for today. If you still like it your getting some extra value if you have waited things out. I concur with the Spurs-Clips move. No opinion on the Cavs and Hornets freefall.


Quick takes of each game on card:

-Portland and Philadelphia is a game I will not touch. That being said, I look for a small run of value on Philadelphia coming soon. This team will adjust without Allen and guys like Iggy and Willie Green will have their games blossom in my estimation.
-Miami has 2 days rest of 4 game swing. They cannot do much w.o Wade in game though. Playing a bit better last week but I wouldn't lay the points whatsoever.
-New Jersey is a screwball team. I will not be shocked to see Memphis win SU. I also would not be shocked if New Jersey put together a full effort and won easily. Lean to an under here.
-The line has moved down a point in Boston's favor against New York. These are the types of games the Knicks must win. The Celtics off a great last second win at NJ on Saturday night. I feel this is the Knicks game to take. They already handled Boston this year. Not totally sure yet though.
-Cleveland line has inflated a point since opening. I haven't really played Cav games all year and need to watch them a bit more in all honesty.
-Chicago continues their spurty start to the season. Tough to give a Carlisle team points anytime and this game is better left on the sidelines for myself.
-I really do not know what to do with the Clippers. Cassell is in his every other year mode. He is just jacking up shots right now. The bigs, especially Elton are not getting involved whatsoever. This guy should be at 28 and 14 a game honestly. I kind of leave them on backburner and they win a few in a row. San Antonio typically average on B2B's but this doesn't count as one IMO. Lean Spurs here but at this point a no play.
-Dallas at Utah should be a fun game. The Jazz will dominate the glass and should score inside at will. The Mavericks have been hot except the Detroit slip-up and as killa said this is a statement game for them. I still lean Jazz here but have to stay idle for now. Great points both ways on this game. Remember, if you like the over they are throwing out a better number now.


Okay, I saved one, because I think its going to be a very interesting game.

Orlando vs Phoenix

A contrast of styles here. A Phoenix team on a getaway. An Orlando team who is damn good at home dating back to last March-April. A lot of factors in this game.

I see the total rose up to 209.5(from the 208.5 opener). What pace will be depicted this game? I remember Phoenix on a few getaway games last season shooting very badly in second halves and putting up 35-45 point second halves. We know that Orlando has been an under machine as of late. Orlando will control the boards and get many second shots in my estimation. Right there the Suns are losing up tempo opportunities. Now, I understand yesterday was a cakewalk for the Suns. That does factor in. A getaway game and a 5 game trip still count for something as well. If this game goes Phoenix tempo they win...so if you like Over then I think Suns are play as well...

My play for today:

Orlando-Phoenix U209.5 -108



Added play

San Antonio-LAC under 187 -113
 
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Thats hilarious man. I entered it when i was 30 seconds away from submitting my thread. Ah well, I like it even more the higher it goes.
 
:cheers: gl bar had phoe over yesterday fing char had 4 points halfway threw the 4th quarter phoe has cost me some major money last couple days

gl on ur play ill prolly follow you on this one
 
Phoenix at Miami on Wed. So is this still a getaway day?? Don't follow much NBA just poking around GL
 
Mufucka you need to get in our discussions at night, we missin u there
 
Kmac...I was actually incorrect about that being getaway day as I missed that game on schedule. That right there makes me feel better about laying off the side. The multitude of games combined with the Orlando style still makes this an under play as well. Thank you for correcting that for us.



Added another Under to top window.
 
BDK, I got in there for a minute last night. I was soo wiped I had to get down for a minute due to a 6 am wake-up call today. Got a huge play I love tomorrow. I'll holla atchas tonight or early tomorrow about it and be in the discussion thread no doubt.
 
Sounds good

BTW, does the team you're going huge on tomorrow:

A) Lay points on the road
B) Run alot of fast breaks
C) Have the best scorer in the NBA
D) Come off a blowout loss
E) Have bitter revenge
F) Catch a banged up team their first game back home

Am I getting warm?
 
The question is, will we get a decent line tomorrow?

coronaball :bow:
 
I honestly don't think it will be great but if its anything decent I will have 4-5 units on it. Been waiting for this situation and the game last week only reinforces my beliefs here.
 
Just tried 3 different sources and pretty much all I can get right now is Day2Day.
 
No problem BAR....Any thoughts on Utah tonight?? Grind-4-mine seems to like the Jazz, since they are goin for Jerry's 1000th win this evening maybe a little extra motivation to get it at home and they are 10-1 there.
 
JP-

I hope you're right, but I suspect you're not. I would be shocked if it was that low. Obviously the entire line depends on JJ. But BAR is right tho, this is one helluva spot. Now let's hush about it and keep it under the radar lol.
 
JJ's calf injury has bothered him for a week but flared up during Friday's game.
"During the ## game it was on fire," he said. "And after the game it swelled up on me and really starting causing me problems." He will be listed as day-to-day on the injury report, but says he's hoping to play Tuesday night.

BDK I know there is a bit of wishful thinking there but I'd be suprised to see anything over 4. They were only 3.5 point favorites over the Bobcats and that was the most points they've layed all year on the road while the JJ's team hasn't been more than a 3.5 point dog at home all year. I suspect 4 or 4.5. I'd hate to see 4.5 though.
 
I figured to lay a few anyway here...so unless line is ridiculous I'll be good to go.

Kmac..that is def a solid angle towards Jazz. Like I said at top of thread..they will be all over glass and should be able to play the tempo they want. That being said its a statement game of sorts for Dallas. If you made me pick I would still lay with the Jazz.
 
xpression syst_m said:
i expect the line to open at -4.5 or -5 and i think it will be bet down as well

I think JJ will play...

The Nuggets dont carry much thunder on the road as compared to home IMO...They will probably shaded somewhat cause of the Dal game and the fact that ATL bea them albeit 12 pt dogs...

If I had to guess I would say-2.5 or -3....but not higher then 3.5 IMO..

a great spot as AL has picked up on to fade ATL.....
 
No doubt Nut....anything 4 or under and i put a max on...this is basically another road game...as they have NY and Mem on road this week still...with Knicks being Wed night at MSG.

Read your threads today from this weekend Nut...great job...wasn't around much so no inout...but good shit to read..

GL tonight
 
SportsNut said:
I think JJ will play...

The Nuggets dont carry much thunder on the road as compared to home IMO...They will probably shaded somewhat cause of the Dal game and the fact that ATL bea them albeit 12 pt dogs...

If I had to guess I would say-2.5 or -3....but not higher then 3.5 IMO..

a great spot as AL has picked up on to fade ATL.....

i'd be surprised to see -2.5 or -3 myself, i think it comes out DN -4.5 with a total set at 205.5
 
Well...got early one in...I said slower second half...just wrong team..lol

Lets get late one in and get back those 2 units from Saturday!
 
By the way the latest Info on JOe Johnson. :


According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Hawks G Joe Johnson (calf) is hopeful that he can play Tuesday vs. Denver after missing Sunday's game. Johnson said the injury had bothered him for more than a week, but became more troublesome after the Hawks' Friday night loss in Los Angeles to the Lakers. "It was hurting during the Denver game (Wednesday) but we had a couple days off before we played the Lakers so I had a chance to rest it," Johnson said. "But during the Lakers game it was on fire. And after the game it swelled up on me and really starting causing me problems."
(Updated 12/11/2006).
 
BAR: Up to how high should the line be until you think it's ridiculous to bet Denver? I'm using this as a reference if I should middle some.
 
DUY...I am waiting to play...juice is -136 at 4.5//lmao....I will play a max bet up to 5....a 3 unit bet at 5.5 or 6...
 
just saw that myself BAR -136 guess they really have no clue what to do with this line as of now..........wonder what it will be by gametime 6 or 7??
 
Kmacc...I played it at 5.5 --14 for 4 units..instead of 5 units I would have layed...

I finally got hoim about 3 am and while computer was firing up fell alseep on couch...need to play it now cuz I am wiped and will prolly sleep day away and don't want to miss out on it..esp if JJ don;'t play or something
 
understand that I just got home myself been playing cards all night trying to earn an honest living...lol....now trying to figure out what I want to do before I crash and burn......might as well snag -5.5 for 1 dime i guess, should be able to get off of it if need be.....McDonalds breakfast sure does sound good right about now though mmmmm
 
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