11/15/08 Saturday NBA

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
42-33 +7.20 Units
6-7 ML's +1.65 Units


Seems like I made alot better decisons that what I profited from the day, but after 4 days down I'll take being up a couple of units on the day. Of the 3 losses I'd say they all sucked. No reason to break them down. Luckily none of them were close other than the Kings play but if you were in the in-game you'd know why that meant little to me.

Anyways on to Saturday. Posted most of my thoughts in the discussion thread, but still haven't looked at the last 4 games other than I think the Portland line is shady as hell and the Rockets have all the ingredients to implode if they don't turn it around. Interested quite a bit in the quotes coming out of Texas after this one. Love to see a blownaway appearance to see what his thoughts are about the team right now. T-Mac has to be really frustrated along with Ming. Ming gets 9 shots off (5-9) while Brooks shoots 17 times (6-17)? Houston off a 5 game roadie with no rest and then a roadie following one day off. Tons of questions.

Posting this one now as it's at 9 everywhere other than BM and -10c on the +9 at Pinny so it's likely to move back to the opener at 8.5.

Nets +9.5

Played this one on principal and it goes against alot of trends I'm sure. The bottom line of this play is that the Hawks aren't playing great defense and DD's is alot to ask of them right now. The loss of Josh Smith is showing up more and more as the Hawks are playing short handed and look extremely tired. Nets are also in the middle of a busy schedule but I think the return of Harris gives them a new life. One other really interesting thing to look at with the Nets is how they do versus teams with different styles. They've gotten beat down twice by Indy, lost to PHO by 28, lost to GSW at home by 8 but faired well versus half court teams covering against DET (SU win), MIA, ATL (SU win). Not really sure where to throw WAS in the whole mix. Not sure the Nets have enough to pull out the SU victory, but I like them to hang around long enough to get the cover.
 
Agree Hawks on fumes after this week and the Josh Smith injury . Actually like the Under as well. Ton of FTs @ NJ so hoping for a drastic reduction in that nad think with the return home ATL will focus more on defense after the last few performances. GL
 
Agree Hawks on fumes after this week and the Josh Smith injury . Actually like the Under as well. Ton of FTs @ NJ so hoping for a drastic reduction in that nad think with the return home ATL will focus more on defense after the last few performances. GL

And the fact that they were 20/45 from 3pt land. Can't expect Harris and Lopez to come up with 55 for the Nets on Saturday. Under seems like a good bet.
 
10.5 now. Indeed crazy. Nice to see the total still running though as it may open up a play on the under
 
Good luck Pics will probably be on this game as well. Knee deep in CFF & NFL right now.
 
i have 11 from local...damn

ATL is much improved but 11?

i agree with Nut on the last few for hawks...win on Bulls, heart breaker against C's...lose first part of home and home with NJ and giving up serious points lately

how do u cover DD when u cant defend lately?!?
 
Thanks Marlo.

Thunder +10.5 -- Had to buy now as 10 seems to becoming shortly.

I will be on the Clippers just hoping for 1.5 rather than 2.

Utah Jazz thoughts -- They'll be playing tonights game with a PG who couldn't crack the 2 deep in Sacto last year, Ronnie Brewer (who's looking pretty good these days), Boozer, C.J. Miles who couldn't crack the 2 deep for the Jazz last year and will likely play close to 48 minutes in this one w/out Harpring and AK and a rookie center from OSU backed up by a Russian with 75 minutes of game experience. Millsap and Knight are honestly the only available players off the bench. I guess Morris Almond (D-League guy) can get some minutes at the 3 behind Miles, but that's just a random guess. Guy has played 4 minutes of basketball in the NBA, but owns alot of the dleague records for scoring.

It is a Jerry Sloan team though and he'll tell you at the end of the game that injuries don't matter and you still have to go out and compete. Don't think the Jazz mail it in by any means, but don't see how they are within 20 at the end of this one. Can't figure out the best way to attack this one personally.
 
i have 11 from local...damn

ATL is much improved but 11?

i agree with Nut on the last few for hawks...win on Bulls, heart breaker against C's...lose first part of home and home with NJ and giving up serious points lately

how do u cover DD when u cant defend lately?!?

Exactly. The books have been taking away some of the easy angles (4/5's etc.) and this used to be an automatic play on the team that lost the previous night especially when the perceived better team lost. Hawks ran out of gas in the 4th last night and Harris coming back from injury gives the Nets renewed energy. Love the points and wish I had 11 of them. :)
 
Missed the good line of 2 and stuck with

Clippers -2.5 -- Don't love this one, but this is as close to a must win for a team as possible 10 games in to a season.
 
BOL with the the night cap, also on OKC.

You definitely know your jazz and Ive been trying to figure out some bet for a possible Cavs Quarter play, just cant pick the quarter but 2nd or 3rd seemed ideal to me. Playing the game out in my head I think Utah sticks around in the 1st, Cavs build a decnet lead in the 2nd/3rd, then the 4th possible backdoor cover. Seems like anything can happen.
 
BOL with the the night cap, also on OKC.

You definitely know your jazz and Ive been trying to figure out some bet for a possible Cavs Quarter play, just cant pick the quarter but 2nd or 3rd seemed ideal to me. Playing the game out in my head I think Utah sticks around in the 1st, Cavs build a decnet lead in the 2nd/3rd, then the 4th possible backdoor cover. Seems like anything can happen.

Exactly. They could also get blown out by 30 out of the gates. To many unknowns


Late add. Think this might be stronger than the spread:

Nets/Hawks U196.5
 
J

thoughts on Hornets?

Tough one for me honestly. I'd probably prefer Houston if they would have won last night, but not sure where their heads are at. This is one of two home games in the middle of 9 road games so it's a tough stretch for them. Hornets haven't shown much since they started 3-0 with big road victories over PHO and GSW. Got trouned by the Lkaers and lost @Cha. Lean Rockets I guess but I won't be betting them.
 
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