'08/'09 CFB Bowl Season

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
'07/'08 Bowls: 20-13-1, +3.00 units
'08 CFB YTD: 111-97-5, +5.55 units

'08/'09 Bowls: 22-8, +13.00 units (w/ 2 more plays pending)

Wasn't quite as profitable of a season as I'd expect...but it was another fun and entertaining year, nevertheless. And now we move into the bowl season, with 34 more games to enjoy...and potentially wager on, of course. Hopefully, affiliations withstanding, the powers that be will give us some excellent matchups to close out the college football year.
Anyways, all plays will end up in this first post over the coming weeks...but i'll be updating the thread (in subsequent posts) as i make plays on the various bowl games. Won't play them all...though i'll prolly come close to it, lol. Can't wait to get started, and go bowling.


EagleBank Bowl, Washington DC - Saturday, 12/20
Navy vs Wake Forest
Wake Forest (-2.5) over Navy (-110) for 1 unit W

New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque - Saturday, 12/20
Fresno St vs Colorado St
Fresno St/Colorado St over 60 (-110) for 1 unit W

MagicJack St Pete Bowl, St Petersburg - Saturday, 12/20
Memphis vs S Florida
Memphis/S Florida over 52 (-110) for 1 unit W

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas - Saturday, 12/20
BYU vs Arizona
BYU (+3.5) over Arizona (-110) for 1.5 units L

R&L Carriers New Orl Bowl, New Orleans - Sunday, 12/21
Troy vs S Mississippi
Troy (-4) over S Mississippi (-110) for 1 unit L

Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego - Tuesday, 12/23
TCU vs Boise St
TCU (-2) over Boise St (-110) for 1.5 units L

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu - Wednesday, 12/24
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
Notre Dame (+1) over Hawaii (-110) for 1 unit W

Motor City Bowl, Detroit - Friday, 12/26
Florida Atl vs C Michigan
Florida Atl/C Michigan over 63 (-110) for 1 unit L

Meineke Car Care Bowl, Charlotte - Saturday, 12/27
W Virginia vs N Carolina
N Carolina (pk) over W Virginia (-110) for 1 unit L

Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando - Saturday, 12/27
Wisconsin vs Florida St
Florida St (-5.5) over Wisconsin (-110) for 1 unit W

Emerald Bowl, San Francisco - Saturday, 12/27
Miami vs California
Miami (+7.5) over California (-110) for 1 unit W

Independence Bowl, Shreveport - Sunday, 12/28
N Illinois vs Louisiana Tech
N Illinois/Louisiana Tech under 47.5 (-110) for 1 unit W

Papajohns.com Bowl, Birmingham - Monday, 12/29
NCST vs Rutgers
NCST (+7) over Rutgers (-110) for 1.5 units W

Valero Alamo Bowl, San Antonio - Monday, 12/29
Northwestern vs Missouri
NW(+18.5) to NW/Mizzou u72.5 for 1 unit to win 1 W

Humanitarian Bowl, Boise - Tuesday, 12/30
Nevada vs Maryland
Nevada (pk) over Maryland (-110) for 1.5 units L

Texas Bowl, Houston - Tuesday, 12/30
W Michigan vs Rice
W Michigan/Rice over 72 (-110) for 1 unit L

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl, San Diego - Tuesday, 12/30
Oregon vs Oklahoma St
Oregon (+3) over Oklahoma St (-110) for 1 unit W

Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth - Wednesday, 12/31
Air Force vs Houston
Houston (-2.5) over Air Force (-110) for 1.5 units W

Brut Sun Bowl, El Paso - Wednesday, 12/31
Pittsburgh vs Oregon St
Oregon St (-2.5) over Pittsburgh (-110) for 1 unit W

Music City Bowl, Nashville - Wednesday, 12/31
Boston College vs Vanderbilt
Boston Co/Vanderbilt under 41 (-110) for 1 unit W

Insight Bowl, Tempe - Wednesday, 12/31
Minnesota vs Kansas
Minnesota/Kansas over 57.5 (-110) for 1 unit W

Chick-fil-A Bowl, Atlanta - Wednesday, 12/31
LSU vs Georgia Tech
LSU/Georgia Tech under 52.5 (-110) for 1 unit W

Outback Bowl, Tampa - Thursday, 1/1
Iowa vs S Carolina
Iowa/S Carolina under 43.5 (-110) for 1 unit W

Capital One Bowl, Orlando - Thursday, 1/1
Michigan St vs Georgia
Georgia (-7) over Michigan St (-110) for 1.5 units W

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville - Thursday, 1/1
Clemson vs Nebraska
Nebraska (+3) over Clemson (-120) for 1 unit W

Rose Bowl, Pasadena - Thursday, 1/1
Penn St vs USC
USC (-9) over Penn St (-110) for 1.5 units W

FedEx Orange Bowl, Miami - Thursday, 1/1
Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati
Virginia Tech (+3) over Cincinnati (-110) for 1 unit W

AT&T Cotton Bowl, Dallas - Friday, 1/2
Mississippi vs Texas Tech
Mississippi (+4) over Texas Tech (-110) for 1 unit W

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Memphis - Friday, 1/2
E Carolina vs Kentucky
Kentucky (+3) over E Carolina (-110) for 1 unit W

Allstate Sugar Bowl, New Orleans - Friday, 1/2
Utah vs Alabama
Alabama (-10) over Utah (-110) for 1.5 units L

International Bowl, Toronto - Saturday, 1/3
Buffalo vs UConn
-- no play --

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Glendale - Monday, 1/5
Ohio St vs Texas
Texas (-9.5) over Ohio St (-110) for 1.5 units

GMAC Bowl, Mobile - Tuesday, 1/6
Ball St vs Tulsa
-- no play --

BCS National Championship Game, Miami - Thursday, 1/8
Florida vs Oklahoma
Florida (-2.5) over Oklahoma (-110) for 1.5 units


34 bowl games, over the course of 3.5 weeks to finish off the season...and bring in the New Year. Hopefully it'll be a profitable run for all of us in the forum, as it's one of the greatest times of the year.
Anyhow, like i said before...i'll be posting games as i play them in additional posts, then adding them up here to this initial post. And i'll try to have at least small write-ups (below) on all my plays as well.
Don't expect to be making too many plays right out of the gate...especially when motivation can be such a key factor come bowl season. But if any early line value presents itself, I will be jumping on it. That said...once all the matchups are set in stone...slow & methodical will prolly be the norm.

Now let's go bowling! GL 2 us all. :tiphat:
 
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Well, played my first game earlier tonight. Was around for the few games that were released on BM. Wanted to play USC, Bama, and Texas...but i'm gonna sit tight on all of those, hoping to see the lines dip a bit.

Anyways, saw Florida at -3 pts. Wasn't any reason to play the game quite yet. But when hitting the refresh button, the line dipped to -2.5 for about 20 to 30 minutes...and i couldn't resist. Honestly was worried that would be the best line i see in the MNC game, so i took it.

First play of the bowl season...and it's a month away, lol.

Florida (-2.5) for 1.5 units

Will get into this game more later...and i'm sure it'll be discussed until we're all sick of it...but it is what it is.

:cheers:
 
other (very) early leans:

byu, tcu, cmu, fsu, the U, ncst, nevada, oregon st, geotech, uga, usc, bama, and texas.

byu will basically have home field, as the mormons will come down in droves. but on the field, they should have their way w/ zona.
tcu vs boise is very interesting...but i gotta lean to the better defense, espeically w/ boise off the smurf turf.
ncst vs rutgers is also very interesting...as it's 2 of the hottest teams in college footsies down the stretch.
nevada is used to playing in boise...and i can't imagine many terps traveling to the middle of nowhere. wonder if they'll even be up for this.

more later...
 
Joe Public's thing...copied over for early look @ the MNC game.


1. Coaching
Who has the better coach? Last year I bet on Lloyd Carr vs. Pete Carroll. Lesson learned.

both very good coaches...but gotta give the edge to urban. why? because of bob's recent history in (big) bowls. since they won it all, the sooners haven't done well. and conversely, we all know how Florida's done in their big bowls recently.


2. Motivation
Who wants to be there vs. who's disappointed to be there?

imo, a non-factor in this bowl...as they both are jacked to be in this game.


3. Who has key seniors?
Is this the leader of a team's last game for them?

debatable. tebow's not a senior...and some may joke about his speech post-ole miss...but he is by FAR the best leader on the field in this matchup. it's not even close. beyond tebow is what's debatable.


4. Out of conference schedule
Numbers four and five work together, but this is also who's played stronger competition outside of their conference, this can suggest how they will match up in their Bowl.

this one's tough. they've both played very tough schedules. OU played cincy and tcu on the plus side...and 2 dogs in chattanooga and washington. UF played miami and fsu on the plus side...and 2 dogs in citadel and hawaii.
people will say the sec is down this year. but i'm down in the big 12 this year...as no one plays decent defense in the conference. all this is so subjective though, that i'll leave it for another day.


5. Conference strength
Again, if the conference is strong, even though the team might be 7-4, they might actually be much better than that record.

same as above. but i'd argue that a 9-3 UGA team, who Florida ass-raped, is significantly better competition than what was a 9-3 Mizzou team, before Oklahoma ass-raped them.
but this is gonna come down to what you value most...offenses or defenses...providing you're not a homer of either conference, which i'm not.


6. Like matchups
Who has each team already played in their season that is like their Bowl matchup, how'd they fare?

unfortuantely, we don't have any of these in this situation.


7. Better pass defense & better rushing offense
Does one team have both a better statistical pass D and rushing O? This usually suggests the side you want to be on.

Yes...and it's the Gators. Florida has a significantly better defense than Oklahoma, and the majority of the difference is against the pass. And Florida has the better rushing offense. So this applies.


Anyways, we're a long way off from the big game. Just thought i'd begin with JP's cheat sheet.

:shake:
 
I can't hate on the Florida pick bro..I'm gonna wait it out as some moron always gets suspended or some shit.

GL this bowl season.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I can't hate on the Florida pick bro..I'm gonna wait it out as some moron always gets suspended or some shit.

GL this bowl season.
Click to expand...


same to you, my brotha :shake:

gawd no...in terms of freak suspensions, etc. thankfully the state school in florida seems to have that mkt covered.
 
the rest of the lines are out!!! and yanks has 4 quick adds...

12/30 = Nevada (pk) over Maryland (-110) for 1.5 units

12/30 = W Michigan/Rice over 72 (-110) for 1 unit

12/23 = TCU (-2) over Boise St (-110) for 1.5 units

12/20 = BYU (+3.5) over Arizona (-110) for 1.5 units

i'll be back later tonight...add them to the top post...and give some reasonings behind these 4 games.

might have some more as well...though i keep telling myself to wait.
but took nevada now, before they become the fav. after all...what terp would want to go to boise in the middle of winter? this wmu/rice total will only get higher. wanted tcu before it climbed to -3, as that's my assumption on where the line will go. and wanted byu...assuming the line would come down to a +3 or less.
bottom line...just trying to get the best of the lines...and what i think they'll eventually be...in terms of early leans. we'll see if it works out, and my assumptions are correct.

back to work 'an_horse'
 
Cool deal, Marlo. Was on the phone w/ BAR as they popped up, and we both nailed TCU right away.

Anyways, got yet 1 more from the office. Didn't see this line earlier...but thankfully it's still at -7 on dimes...where it's -7.5 elsewhere.

1/1 = Georgia (-7) over Michigan St (-110) for 1.5 units

Like with those others...i'll update shit later, as i get time.

Still waiting for USC, Texas, &/or Bama to take a dip below 10 pts. Miami at +7 is intriguing, as is Oregon at +4. Think i can get a better line on both, so i'm waiting. Btw...georgia tech is down to -3.5 pts. Holding out for a flat -3 pts...so come on LSU backers, drive it down another 1/2 pt.

:cheers:
 
Nice on UGA

Never got a chance to call you back..was on phone for about 75 minutes with someone and killed my battery essentially...
 
Cool deal, VK. Good to hear so many are loving that side. :cheers:
Imo...the last 2 undefeateds won't survive their bowl games.

No worries, BAR. :shake:
Just keep checking in on the lines, waiting & watching for line movements.


Anyways, i gots 2 more from earlier today...

1/5 = Texas (-9.5) over Ohio St (-110) for 1.5 units

12/31 = Minnesota/Kansas over 57.5 (-110) for 1 unit

Out of the 3 big favs i liked since day one...usc, bama, and texas...one finally dipped below 10 pts.
Texas may drop more, but i didn't want to risk it this morning...and end up seeing double digits again. Plus...other than Boise over OU...the better record always wins & covers in the Fiesta.
As for the over, hopefully Minny shows up...cuz Kansas has been giving them up in bunches this season. We all know Kansas can score, and 5 of their last 6 totalled well over this #...but the Insight is also notorious for hovas.

be back...maybe as myself, one of these days. :tiphat:
 
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B.A.R. said:
I really don't understand that total. I know I mentioned I liked it yesterday.
Click to expand...


yep...i know i brought it up when we spoke, and were going line by line down the slate, cuz i had discussed it briefly w/ RJ too. imo, it'll only rise between now & then...so why not, considering the kansas side of things. but what's in question is the Minny portion of the equation, in terms of their offense. luckily though, this isn't the iowa defense they'll be facing.

on another subject, fwiw, i even saw a flat 9 jsut now on texas.
this early stuff is all about getting the better of the line. thought i was catching it this morning, but now i'm kinda bummed about that 1/2 pt. can't imagine it getting any lower than that 9 though...


8 of 34 in the books :tiphat:
 
a few more additions this evening...but just 1 unit plays for 2 of them.

12/27 = Miami (+7.5) over Cal (-110) for 1 unit

12/29 = NCST (+7) over Rutgers (-110) for 1.5 units

12/20 = Wake (-2.5) over Navy (-110) for 1 unit

The U was a lean from the start...despite Cal getting basically a home game. May get burned...but a large part of this is playing the side i feel will be the motivated one in this matchup. (see the fsu/ucla bowl for some similarities, imo.) Anyways, inched to +7.5 at BM today...so i grabbed it.
NCST has always been a lean as well. Keep seeing 6.5s elsewhere, so decided i better grab the flat +7 now...also at BM...while i still can. Sure, Teel looked great against a louisville team playing a skeleton of a secondary in their final game. But both these teams are rolling. And young Russel Wilson is the real deal. Got no problem seeing ncst win this 1 su.
And finally WF. On greek now at -3 @ even money, so i took it to -2.5 @ the normal -110 juice. Think that's just about the best line we'll see here. And as long as Skinner doesn't throw 4 picks again to the Navy defense...WF should be able to avenge that loss to Navy back in late september. Better defense, better hc, and even Swank is back.

:tiphat:
 
pags11 said:
I lean to all three of those sides administrator...
Click to expand...

good to hear. thx again, pags. :shake:


another few more additions. wanted to get the earliest games all buttoned up, mostly because santa yanks is very busy...getting ready for Christmas with my kids/family.
also, fwiw, i plan on playing every bowl game...so there will be a couple small/action plays included in the 34. generally my plays are between 1 and 1.5 units...but when it something small, it's just a 1/2.

12/20 = Fresno/Colly St over 60 for 1 unit

12/20 = Memphis/USF over 52 for 1 unit

12/21 = Troy (-4) for a 1/2 unit

2 pretty bad defenses in the NM Bowl. Mentioned it elsewhere...but i've seen fresno st play too many times this year to think that they can stop anyone defensively. both teams will score though.
usf hasn't been the same team at all this year. and if it wasn't for blatant home field adv, i'd side w/ memphis here. but at least with arkelon hall back healthy, i know memphis will be contributing to this number.
was a bit stymied on the troy/so piss game. but troy, in a weaker conf, is slightly better on both sides of the ball. and out of conf they took on ohio st, okie lite, and lsu. gotta give the trojans some props on that alone.


14 of 34 in the books. :tiphat:
 
B.A.R. said:
You just broke the "system" with those totals ;)
Click to expand...


:36_11_6:

at least one of them did...


got myself all the way up to xmas eve...but damn if i know what i wanna do with the nd/hawaii game. lean nd & the hova...but only nd if fat charlie wears a grass skirt on the field.
 
Notre dame...

I will be locking in tomorrow most likely...

Read kyles write-up on Page 2 of his thread..its long..but sums things up well...

Biggest thing here is motivation.
 
2 additions, from the office...

1/1 = USC (-9) over Penn St (-110) for 1.5 units

12/24 = Notre Dame (+1) over Hawaii (-110) for 1 unit

I check the lines jsut about every hour or so...and USC has finally moved off the 10 pts. Not sure who helped move it...newsletters, services, etc...but i'm thankful. About pissed myself to finally see a different number than the same old 10 that's been staring me back in the face every single day. Anyways, it's 9.5 on BM and a flat 9 at dimes right now.

Now if the Bama line will do the same thing...
 
6+ additions tonight. wanted to get these played before thursday. i know the newsletters are coming out, if they're not out already...but bob's site says he's releasing his bowl plays on thursday. anyways, here are the latest round of adds...

the "plus" above is simply another 1/2 unit on Troy, also at -4 pts...so i jsut brought it up to a full unit play.

now the latest 6...

12/26 = FAU/CMU o63 for 1 unit
12/27 = UNC (pk) for 1 unit
12/28 = N Illy/Lou Tech u47.5 for 1 unit
12/31 = Houston (-2.5) for 1.5 units
1/1 = Iowa/Scary u43.5 for 1 unit
1/2 = Bama (-10) for 1.5 units

gave up on waiting for less than 10 with bama. huge public play...but it is what it is. they show up...they should cover handily, imo.
 
well, that's 22 of 34 in the books now. :tiphat:

as for the remaining 12...

lean heavy towards FSU...lean towards the nw/mizzou hova...lean a bit towards oregon...could still go either way with the pitt/oregon st game...lean towards the bc/vandy under...lean towards georgia tech...lean towards the cornholers...lean towards virginia tech...lean towards ole miss...lean towards either tucky, or the under...could still go either way with the buffalo/uconn game...and it's the same story for the testy st/tulsa game.

so i've still got a fair amount of work to do...and i'm still hoping for some favorable line movement. but as far as these other 12 bowls are concerned...well, they'll be at the mercy of any bob-induced line changes. hopefully they'll move the right way though, if they move at all.

:cheers:
 
HUNTDOG said:
I think if anything Dr. Bob will help the fav. bettors out...just a feeling.
Click to expand...


maybe so.
i have a mix of everything...but i was worried he'll take bama and houston, specifically.

fwiw...check the houston matchup out. revenge spot from earlier in the year. this was the hurricane ike game...where they moved the game to dallas, and w/ an early start...in bad weather. they got off to a horrid start, yet mounted a huge comeback late...only to fall short. but houston totally outgained af...and they've now seen this type of option attack twice already this season. two teams (especially offensively) that were heading in opposite directions down the stretch.
 
:cheers:

GL this season big yanks.

Lets cash wake, and good health on zona. I'll be at RFK watching wake stuff the option and get their revenge....

get that survivor pool money too. gettin down to the nitty gritty now- things really gettin interesting. hope you win
 
CapTwo said:
:cheers:

GL this season big yanks.

Lets cash wake, and good health on zona. I'll be at RFK watching wake stuff the option and get their revenge....

get that survivor pool money too. gettin down to the nitty gritty now- things really gettin interesting. hope you win
Click to expand...


unfortunately, my punk ass was knocked out a couple weeks ago. ;)

but thx, bro. let's have a great bowl season. thank gawd it's finally here. :cheers:
 
shitfire...3-3 thru the 1st 6 bowl games. won the 1st 3, kinda hosed on the next 3. both byu and troy blow 4th q leads...and tcu dominates the yardage, more than doubling boise's output, yet can't cover the 2 pts.

byu played a pathetic game...troy flat out choked...and tcu shit the bed int he 1st half. not cool.
 
4-3 thru the first 7 bowls. thankfully ND turned things around.

just that hova for tomorrow. worked out well taking it so early, as i just saw it at 68.5 pts lol.

GL tomorrow, guys. And hope you all had great a great Christmas w/ family & friends.

:cheers:
 
Motor City Bowl, Detroit - Friday, 12/26
Florida Atl vs C Michigan
Florida Atl/C Michigan over 63 (-110) for 1 unit



Yanks , if this hits 69 are you going to try to middle any of it ?
 
I can't decide on FSU/Wisky.. I originally leaned FSU but now I'm not so sure. Anything in particular that put you onto them..? Thanks and GL tonight, we sure as hell got a pretty good number.
 
vegaskyle said:

Yanks , if this hits 69 are you going to try to middle any of it ?
Click to expand...

wish i would've, vk. the hova was dead halfway thru the 1st q.


spanishshark said:
Good luck with the Over and I hope you had a great holiday yourself :shake::cheers:
Click to expand...

i did...thx.


CrimsonK said:
I can't decide on FSU/Wisky.. I originally leaned FSU but now I'm not so sure. Anything in particular that put you onto them..? Thanks and GL tonight, we sure as hell got a pretty good number.
Click to expand...

unfortunately, that # didn't help us at all. horrible game to watch.

cal poly san luis obispo to start, lol. seriously, wisky was a mess this season. just see the noles as a much better team at the moment.
 
4-4 thru the 1st 8 bowls. :whip:

not a good start.
anyways, made a couple additions tonight...to bring me all the way up to the 12/31 games.

teased NW to the under...and added the ducks. put it up in the 1st post of the thread...but got Oregon at +3...and the teaser is NW +18.5 to NW/Mizzou u72.5 pts.


25 of the 34 bowls are now accounted for...and yes, i pussed out on simply backing NW. :tiphat:
 
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