Saturday, December 28th
Fenway Bowl - Fenway Park - Boston - North Carolina/Connecticut
NC fired HC Mack Brown, so TE coach Freddie Kitchens(former Browns HC) will serve as the interim. Obviously, the Heels have been in the news with the shocking hire of Belichick. For this game, UNC will be without 6 starters, including 3 D-linemen and their top player on offense in RB Hampton. UConn loses 5 starters. Looks to be cold but no wind or precip. NC played a tougher schedule (#67 vs #119) and I think that's the right side at -2Β½ to 3.
Pinstripe Bowl - Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY - Nebraska/Boston College
Only fitting that the both bowl games at Red Sox and Yankees stadiums are going to be played at the same time. NEB is making their first bowl game in 8 years! Even with BC much closer, there will be a large contingent of Nebraska fans. BC has slight edge in stats (+0.1 vs -0.1 in ypp margin) but NEB did play a tougher schedule (#40 vs #54). NEB will miss 4 starters, with a total 24 players on the portal. They will also be without their DC. Too close to call.
Pop Tarts Bowl - Camping World Stadium - Orlando - Miami, FL/Iowa State
The one-huge-factor is: Will Miami QB Cam Ward play? Indications are he will play...but for how long? MIA had better stats (+2.4 toe +0.3) and one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, with WARD. ISU did play the tougher schedule (#36 vs #65). Both teams have announced minimal opt-outs or transfers. Miami WR Xavier Restrepo may still decide to sit per rumors.
Arizona Bowl - Arizona Stadium - Tucson, AZ - Miami, OH/Colorado State
Interesting matchup here, although both will be without several key players. MIA will be without 5 starters including top 2 WRs. Colorado State loses 6 starters. With similar strength in schedules, MIA produced the better stats (+1.3 to +0.2). There's been UNDER money in the market, but not much on sides. I also like the UNDER and will also back MIA.
Military Bowl - Navy-Marine Corps Stadium - Annapolis - NC State/East Carolina
Solid in-state matchup. ECU has removed the interim tag from Blake Harrell, and he will coach his first bowl game. ECU had better stats (+0.9 vs 0.0) while NCS played the much tougher schedule (#59 vs #125). State will be without DC Tony Gibson(Gone to be HC @ Marshall). ECU will be missing 5 starters (NC State 1). State's the play as far as I can see, and the total seems too high IMO.
Alamo Bowl - Alamodome - San Antonio, TX - Colorado/BYU
Conference foes who didnβt play this season get the chance in BG today. Key factor revolves around COL QB Shedeur Sanders and the Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. They say they will play, and the current number (Colorado -3) reflects that. Will they play a full-game? Doubtful. Both teams only lose a couple starters. BYU had a slight edge in ypp margin (+1.3 vs +1.0). COL played a little tougher schedule (#31 vs #46). I think the QB will play as long as needed to help get Deion the W. I'm in up to -3.
Independence Bowl - Independence Stadium - Shreveport, LA - Army/Louisiana Tech
Army originally scheduled to play Sun Belt Champ Marshall, but the Thundering Herd tapped out with so many players in the portal. Army instead gets left with a 5-7 Louisiana Tech that may be better than their record. They were 2-5 in games decided by 7 points or less but did cover their last 5 games and were +0.2 in ypp margin. Army is without top RB Udoh who transferred to ASU. Their OL coach left to become the head coach at CMU, but I still think Army bounces back...just canβt see laying 17.

