NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500 Top Bets
NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500
Sunday, October 4, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) in Lincoln, Alabama
Let’s Situate Ourselves
We are in the Round of 12 right now. There are still three races per round before drivers begin to get eliminated. Right now, we enter the second race of this round.
Because he won the last race, which was the first race of the Round of 12, Kurt Busch is through to the next round.
You can see in the following graphic that seven spots still need to be filled. Obviously, Kevin Harvick seems to have the best chance.
On the other side, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, and Austin Dillon have work to do in order to avoid elimination. Alex Bowman should feel insecure.
Track Info
Besides being a playoff race with (a limited amount of) fans, Sunday’s race is special because it takes place at the legendary Talladega Superspeedway.
One way in which Talladega distinguishes itself among NASCAR oval tracks is that it is the longest one at 2.66 miles per lap.
Over time, Talladega track officials have had to install safety measures to prevent any more lethal incidents from taking place.
These has been a characteristic problem because Talladega’s physical measurements — including its length — encourage higher speeds.
So besides being long, this track has a relatively high amount of banking. Its corners are each banked at 33 degrees.
While its backstretch only has a bit of banking, Talladega’s front stretch is banked at 16 degrees.
Banking is a big deal for speed because it helps increase it. Drivers can use banking to collect more momentum for their vehicles.
Race Info
Sunday’s YellaWood 500 is so-callled because, in completing 188 laps, drivers will have accumulated 500 miles.
This event is broken down into three stages. Stage 1 and Stage 2 both require 55 laps each. Stage 3 will demand 78 laps.
With the starting lineup nowadays being pre-established by a NASCAR formula, we can already identify who will start out in pole position and in what order the rest of the (playoff) field will line up.
Denny Hamlin will begin in pole position and he’ll be followed by Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr.
Considering Candidates To Bet On
Oddsmakers have Denny Hamlin among the favorites.
I think that he may be slightly overvalued due to his starting position. This race is so long and leads are so notoriously easily to give up that starting position is an absolute non-factor.
While Hamlin is having a great season, he is still favored ahead of Harvick, who is currently leading in points.
Harvick, though, is somebody you should stay from. In his last four attempts at Talladega, starting with the most recent one, he’s finished 10th, 17th, 38th, and 28th.
I get that some may have developed the willingness to bet unconditionally on Harvick because of how many races he’s won this year. But this track is not a track where you want to back Harvick at.
Another common strategy of bettors is to bet on those who are desperate, those who „need“ it more.
If you see the above Twitter graphic, you’ll see that Kyle Busch is just barely outside of the cutoff line for elimination.
Busch, though, is in serious trouble because his history at Talladega is likewise atrocious. In his last six tries here, he’s finished 10th or worse every time and worse than 20th three times.
My Guy
I like Aric Almirola. He’s more heavily dogged than Hamlin although his history at this track stands out.
Measured since February of 2017, Almirola easily leads everybody in average finishing position (4.71) at Talladega.
While I just implied that I don’t want to look to bet on desperate drivers, I was simply criticizing an uncritical expectation that competitors should magically perform better when they are desperate.
Almirola will perform better than he usually does because of his history at this track. I like betting on him to win, because of his desperation (he’s 27 points behind the eighth and final spot), for the following reason.
His desperation will dictate his strategy. He knows he can win at this track — he has before — and his desperation will compel him to go for the win in order to go through to the next round. He will not be satisfied with second place.
The Verdict
Nor will we — we will not be satisfied with second place from Almirola.
Given his history at this track and his situation, let’s bet on Almirola to win.
Best Bet: Almirola +1200 at BetOnline
NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500
Sunday, October 4, 2020 at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) in Lincoln, Alabama
Let’s Situate Ourselves
We are in the Round of 12 right now. There are still three races per round before drivers begin to get eliminated. Right now, we enter the second race of this round.
Because he won the last race, which was the first race of the Round of 12, Kurt Busch is through to the next round.
You can see in the following graphic that seven spots still need to be filled. Obviously, Kevin Harvick seems to have the best chance.
On the other side, Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, and Austin Dillon have work to do in order to avoid elimination. Alex Bowman should feel insecure.
Track Info
Besides being a playoff race with (a limited amount of) fans, Sunday’s race is special because it takes place at the legendary Talladega Superspeedway.
One way in which Talladega distinguishes itself among NASCAR oval tracks is that it is the longest one at 2.66 miles per lap.
Over time, Talladega track officials have had to install safety measures to prevent any more lethal incidents from taking place.
These has been a characteristic problem because Talladega’s physical measurements — including its length — encourage higher speeds.
So besides being long, this track has a relatively high amount of banking. Its corners are each banked at 33 degrees.
While its backstretch only has a bit of banking, Talladega’s front stretch is banked at 16 degrees.
Banking is a big deal for speed because it helps increase it. Drivers can use banking to collect more momentum for their vehicles.
Race Info
Sunday’s YellaWood 500 is so-callled because, in completing 188 laps, drivers will have accumulated 500 miles.
This event is broken down into three stages. Stage 1 and Stage 2 both require 55 laps each. Stage 3 will demand 78 laps.
With the starting lineup nowadays being pre-established by a NASCAR formula, we can already identify who will start out in pole position and in what order the rest of the (playoff) field will line up.
Denny Hamlin will begin in pole position and he’ll be followed by Kurt Busch and Martin Truex Jr.
Considering Candidates To Bet On
Oddsmakers have Denny Hamlin among the favorites.
I think that he may be slightly overvalued due to his starting position. This race is so long and leads are so notoriously easily to give up that starting position is an absolute non-factor.
While Hamlin is having a great season, he is still favored ahead of Harvick, who is currently leading in points.
Harvick, though, is somebody you should stay from. In his last four attempts at Talladega, starting with the most recent one, he’s finished 10th, 17th, 38th, and 28th.
I get that some may have developed the willingness to bet unconditionally on Harvick because of how many races he’s won this year. But this track is not a track where you want to back Harvick at.
Another common strategy of bettors is to bet on those who are desperate, those who „need“ it more.
If you see the above Twitter graphic, you’ll see that Kyle Busch is just barely outside of the cutoff line for elimination.
Busch, though, is in serious trouble because his history at Talladega is likewise atrocious. In his last six tries here, he’s finished 10th or worse every time and worse than 20th three times.
My Guy
I like Aric Almirola. He’s more heavily dogged than Hamlin although his history at this track stands out.
Measured since February of 2017, Almirola easily leads everybody in average finishing position (4.71) at Talladega.
While I just implied that I don’t want to look to bet on desperate drivers, I was simply criticizing an uncritical expectation that competitors should magically perform better when they are desperate.
Almirola will perform better than he usually does because of his history at this track. I like betting on him to win, because of his desperation (he’s 27 points behind the eighth and final spot), for the following reason.
His desperation will dictate his strategy. He knows he can win at this track — he has before — and his desperation will compel him to go for the win in order to go through to the next round. He will not be satisfied with second place.
The Verdict
Nor will we — we will not be satisfied with second place from Almirola.
Given his history at this track and his situation, let’s bet on Almirola to win.
Best Bet: Almirola +1200 at BetOnline
