YellaWood 500 Preview Article (x2)

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YellaWood 500 Preview and Best Bet

NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama

Playoff Update

Right now, we are in a pivotal spot in the NASCAR Cup Series palyoffs.

We are situated in the Round of 12, specifically the middle race of this round. There are three races in total in the Round of 12 and this is the second one.

The first race of the Round of 12, which took place on Sunday, was won by Denny Hamlin. By winning the race, he clinched his spot in the next round.

Because Hamlin has less reason and therefore less motivation to perform well this Sunday, we will discount him from betting consideration.

There are still a lot of other drivers who will have more incentive and be more motivated on Saturday. Therefore, these other drivers will be more worth investing in.

Race Info

For Sunday's race event, drivers must complete a total of 188 laps.

As has been the case for nearly every race this season, there will be three stages for this event.

Stage 1 will end upon completion of the 60th lap. Stage 2 also requires drivers to complete 60 laps. Stage 3 consists in the remaining 68 laps.

An entry list is reliably posted at the start of every week for the upcoming race.

The starting lineup is something you should look out for on Wednesday morning.

Because drivers are quite familiar, historically, with the track that they will be competing on, there is no practice session or qualifying for this race.

Instead, NASCAR relies on its usual predetermined formula in order to establish the starting lineup.

Track Info

Talladega Superspeedway is one of NASCAR's most famous tracks, if not its most famous one.

It is know for high speeds, close racing, and big crashes. Watching this race can create a perception of chaos.

Without going too much into science, the close racing actually facilitates the higher speeds that Talladega is known for. This is because of what is called "drafting" in aerodynamics.

This track is big: it is 2.66 miles long. No other track in NASCAR requires as much distance to be completed per lap, but this greater distance provides more opportunities for drivers to accumulate higher speeds.

So in completing 188 laps, drivers will have amassed 500 miles.

At Talladega, the banking is extremely high, which helps explain why the speeds are so notoriously fast because drivers will use higher banking to corral momentum for their cars.

Turns 1 and 2 are both banked at 33 degrees. Turn 3 is banked at 32.4 degrees and Turn 4 is banked at 32.5 degrees. The tri-oval is banked at 16.5 degrees. Finally, the back straightaway is banked at three degrees.

Drivers To Avoid

Not every driver is equipped to handle the unique conditions at Talladega.

One guy who regularly struggles at this track is Kyle Busch.

In his last four tries at Talladega, he has finished 19th, 32nd, 27th, and 18th, respectively.

His average finishing position here is an awful 20.78.

Drivers -- and bettors, too -- speak of chaos reigning at Talladega. But yet, there is not so much chaos as to prevent the accumulation of consistent results, and that's why we can make informed betting decisions like avoiding any form of investment in Kyle Busch.

My Guy

I recommend investing in Joey Logano. While his last two finishes look unattractive, they both came as the result of accidents, which do happen at Talladega.

However, his driver rating at this track is easily the best out of any other active competitor's.

His average finishing position here is 17.52 despite those recent accidents and a slew of bad races earlier in his career.

More recently, he finished top-five in four straight races in 2017 to 2019.

For the above reasons, expect another strong effort out of Logano here.

Best Bet: Logano Top 5 Finish at +195 with Bovada
 
YellaWood 500 Odds and Expert Picks

NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 2 p.m. ET (NBC) at Talladega Superspeedway in Lincoln, Alabama

Playoff Update

Right now, we are in a possibly decisive spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.

There are three races in total in the Round of 12 and this is the second one.

Denny Hamlin won the first race of the Round of 12, which took place last Sunday.

Because he won the race, he secured his place in the next round.

We should therefore expect Hamlin to have less motivation to perform well this Sunday, despite his assertion that he is a "professional" who will still try hard. We should not consider him an option to invest in.

There are still plenty of other drivers who will have more incentive to compete hard on Saturday. They will be racing at a dangerous course and will require more incentive to want to push themselves.

These other drivers will be more worth investing in.

Race Info

For Sunday's competition, drivers must complete a total of 188 laps.

As has been the case for just about every race this season, there will be three stages for this event.

Stage 1 will require 60 laps. Stage 2 also mandates drivers to complete 60 laps. Stage 3 consists in the remaining 68 laps.

An entry list is posted at the start of every week for the upcoming race, while the starting lineup gets published on Wednesday morning for the same event.

Because drivers are historically very familiar with this famous track that they will be competing on, there is not going to be a qualifying round or practice session for this event.

Instead, NASCAR utilizes its normal predetermined formula in order to establish who will start in what position.

Track Info

Talladega Superspeedway is, at the very least, one of NASCAR's most famous tracks.

It has garnered a reputation for high speeds, close racing, and big crashes.

Without going too much into physics, the close racing actually helps create the conditions for the higher speeds that Talladega is famous for.

This explanatory term here is "drafting" in aerodynamics: cars in groups will drive faster than cars driving in isolation

This track is NASCAR's biggest: it is 2.66 miles long.

So in completing 188 laps, drivers will have amassed 500 miles.

One reason why the speeds here are so high is that the banking is extremely elevated. Drivers make use of higher banking to collect and increase momentum for their cars.

Turns 1 and 2 are banked at 33 degrees. Turn 3 is banked at 32.4 degrees. Turn 4 is banked at 32.5 degrees. The tri-oval is banked at 16.5 degrees. Lastly, the back straightaway is banked at three degrees.

Drivers To Avoid

Not every driver is able to handle the unique conditions at Talladega.

One guy who regularly struggles at this track is Martin Truex Jr.

He has finished 20th or worse here in each of his last 10 tries.

His average finishing position at Talladega is 21.82, which is considerably far behind his average starting position here.

My Guy

I recommend investing in Kyle Larson.

It is true that he finished rather poorly for himself. But this disappointing performance does not indicate at all that he is any less fast than he has been all season.

Larson spent a lot of time leading the last race, but fell behind due to an error committed by his crew chief.

Historically at Talladega, his driver rating and average finishing position are deflated by engine trouble and accidents. These bad-luck instances can't keep happening, though.

He has been the fastest guy all season and enjoys a strong bounce-back opportunity at a track where he regularly finishes well ahead of where he started.

The price for him to finish top-10 is really cheap. I recommend taking advantage of it.

Best Bet: Larson Top 10 Finish at -105 with Bovada
 
Volatility rules the day here as it does and the other super speedway way, Daytona. Chaos yesterday with the results of the truck race and Xfinity race. I'm staying away this week.

Penske does well here though. Won 9 out of the last 15. Good luck all.
 
Yeah, I did not post as I assumed they would not race today due to the weather. I bet an extremely small amount of Reddick to win @ +3200 as a lottery ticket. They are scheduled to race tomorrow at 1:00, pending the weather.
 
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