Yankees vs. Red Sox
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at Fenway Park in Boston
Team Form
Measuring team form is an underrated handicapping component in baseball.
But it seems clear that rhythm and chemistry can shape an entire team.
Right now, the Yankees show both traits relentlessly as they’ve been as sure-fire with your MLB Picks as they possibly can be.
They’ve won 10 games in a row. Only two of those wins came by one run.
Necessity
With Boston’s season effectively over, the Red Sox want to give youth a chance.
The thing to note is that both Boston’s poor record and its number of injuries to pitchers explain why Tanner Houck remains in its starting rotation.
Houck is starting today not so much because of his ability but because his arm sorely needed.
Youth
Every young pitcher who gets to step on a professional baseball mound has good stuff. So in assessing the chances for success of Boston’s 24 year-old starting pitcher, talking about his stuff is fairly irrelevant.
What I look for most in a young pitcher is his command. It’s the pitchers who can throw strikes who one can rely upon to succeed even as a rookie.
The problem with Houck is precisely that he lacks this command. Even in Triple A last season, he walked 5.04 batters per nine innings.
In his debut against Miami — in what has been his only professional start until now — he walked 5.40 batters per nine innings.
Houck vs. Yankee Batters
While Miami didn’t punish Houck for his lack of command, the Yankees will.
They match up well with Houck because they rank fifth in slugging .509 against his two favorite pitches — the fastball and slider — from righties.
These two pitches combine for approximately 75 percent of Houck’s repertoire. Because Houck relies on these two pitches, he won’t escape the match-up supported threat posed by the Yanks.
As part of their ongoing 10-game win streak, the Yankees have scored at least six runs in eight different games.
So many different New York batters can step up and produce that it’s relatively difficult to highlight a select few.
Among others, look for Luke Voit who has a combined total of four home runs in his past six games combined.
Deivi Garcia
One way in which Garcia — another youngster — distinguishes himself from his fellow rookie counterpart at Boston is his command.
After four professional starts, the rookie is only walking 1.46 batters per nine innings.
It is easier for him to throw strikes when his stuff is so good.
One pitch that had always stood out to scouts was his curveball.
In the minor leagues, this pitch was considered elite because of how deceptive it was for batters to track as a result of its high spin.
On the professional level, this pitch is still good. Opponents hit .231 against it.
He’s also comfortable in trying to locate this pitch in different parts of the strike zone, although a lot of pitchers try to focus their curveball in the lower parts of the strike zone.
Even though he relies heavily on his fastball — as young pitchers tend to do — his curveball helps him possess a nice mixture of secondary pitches which he can add in to a starting performance.
His change-up and sider are even more effective based on opposing BA. Opponents hit .150 against the former and .200 against the latter.
Garcia focuses his change-up’s location along the edge of the strike zone where it’s harder for a batter to make contact and to even know if a pitch will land as a strike or not.
As for his slider, he likes to keep it outside of the strike zone, which he can do since he induces so many whiffs with this pitch.
Garcia vs. Red Sox Batters
Form is not a strength of Boston’s hitters. In their past five games combined, they’ve accumulated a total of 16 runs. This average of just over three runs per game would place them in last-place in the category.
One batter who Boston continues to miss is staple left-hander Andrew Benintendi. He remains injured.
The Verdict
New York continues to win and to hit well. Oddsmakers are making the Yankee money-line too chalky. So let’s invest in the full-game run-line instead.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-115) with BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, September 20, 2020 at Fenway Park in Boston
Team Form
Measuring team form is an underrated handicapping component in baseball.
But it seems clear that rhythm and chemistry can shape an entire team.
Right now, the Yankees show both traits relentlessly as they’ve been as sure-fire with your MLB Picks as they possibly can be.
They’ve won 10 games in a row. Only two of those wins came by one run.
Necessity
With Boston’s season effectively over, the Red Sox want to give youth a chance.
The thing to note is that both Boston’s poor record and its number of injuries to pitchers explain why Tanner Houck remains in its starting rotation.
Houck is starting today not so much because of his ability but because his arm sorely needed.
Youth
Every young pitcher who gets to step on a professional baseball mound has good stuff. So in assessing the chances for success of Boston’s 24 year-old starting pitcher, talking about his stuff is fairly irrelevant.
What I look for most in a young pitcher is his command. It’s the pitchers who can throw strikes who one can rely upon to succeed even as a rookie.
The problem with Houck is precisely that he lacks this command. Even in Triple A last season, he walked 5.04 batters per nine innings.
In his debut against Miami — in what has been his only professional start until now — he walked 5.40 batters per nine innings.
Houck vs. Yankee Batters
While Miami didn’t punish Houck for his lack of command, the Yankees will.
They match up well with Houck because they rank fifth in slugging .509 against his two favorite pitches — the fastball and slider — from righties.
These two pitches combine for approximately 75 percent of Houck’s repertoire. Because Houck relies on these two pitches, he won’t escape the match-up supported threat posed by the Yanks.
As part of their ongoing 10-game win streak, the Yankees have scored at least six runs in eight different games.
So many different New York batters can step up and produce that it’s relatively difficult to highlight a select few.
Among others, look for Luke Voit who has a combined total of four home runs in his past six games combined.
Deivi Garcia
One way in which Garcia — another youngster — distinguishes himself from his fellow rookie counterpart at Boston is his command.
After four professional starts, the rookie is only walking 1.46 batters per nine innings.
It is easier for him to throw strikes when his stuff is so good.
One pitch that had always stood out to scouts was his curveball.
In the minor leagues, this pitch was considered elite because of how deceptive it was for batters to track as a result of its high spin.
On the professional level, this pitch is still good. Opponents hit .231 against it.
He’s also comfortable in trying to locate this pitch in different parts of the strike zone, although a lot of pitchers try to focus their curveball in the lower parts of the strike zone.
Even though he relies heavily on his fastball — as young pitchers tend to do — his curveball helps him possess a nice mixture of secondary pitches which he can add in to a starting performance.
His change-up and sider are even more effective based on opposing BA. Opponents hit .150 against the former and .200 against the latter.
Garcia focuses his change-up’s location along the edge of the strike zone where it’s harder for a batter to make contact and to even know if a pitch will land as a strike or not.
As for his slider, he likes to keep it outside of the strike zone, which he can do since he induces so many whiffs with this pitch.
Garcia vs. Red Sox Batters
Form is not a strength of Boston’s hitters. In their past five games combined, they’ve accumulated a total of 16 runs. This average of just over three runs per game would place them in last-place in the category.
One batter who Boston continues to miss is staple left-hander Andrew Benintendi. He remains injured.
The Verdict
New York continues to win and to hit well. Oddsmakers are making the Yankee money-line too chalky. So let’s invest in the full-game run-line instead.
Best Bet: Yankees RL (-115) with BetOnline
