Sale's Struggles Give Yankees Edge Vs Rival Red Sox
Boston (6-11) at New York Yankees (6-9)
When: 6:35 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees 1H ML
Chris Sale (0-3, 9.00 ERA) continues to struggle for Boston like he never has before. In his last start against a weak Toronto lineup, he gave up five runs in four innings. After three starts, he's already yielding -6.2 units.
Sale's strikeout rate is as low as it's ever been in his career. His walk rate is as high as it's been since 2011 and his opposing home run rate has never been so high. For whatever reason--it could be that he's not completely healthy or it could be as a result of his struggling with mechanics-- his velocity continues to suffer. His fastball is four mph slower than last year's, his change-up and slider are each down close to three mph from last season.
Because he's struggling with mechanics, he isn't able to achieve a consistent delivery, which makes his location unreliable. Evidence for his mechanical issues is in the strong variation of the respective horizontal and vertical release points of his pitches from game to game. He's still trying to find the right point at which to release his pitches.
Although the strike rate of his change-up and slider are down only slightly, his location of these pitches is worse. They're landing in the middle parts of the strike zone with greater frequency while finding the corners of the zone less often. He's throwing his fastball with 11 percent greater frequency for a ball. He throws his fastball about as often as he throws any other pitch, although not to start off batters with. This usage pattern explains why his walk rate is so poor despite the fact that he's throwing a high rate of first-pitch strikes. He is lacking the stuff and location to finish off batters with.
Active and current Yankee players don't have many career at-bats against Sale because many of the ones who do are currently injured. The Yankees still have plenty of weapons with which to hurt Sale. Watch out for DJ LeMahieu, who's batting .396 on the season, .350 in his past seven days, and .400 at home. Aaron Judge has also been hot, batting .315 with two homers in his past seven days.
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James Paxton (1-2, 6.00 ERA) hasn't had the best start for the Yanks. The key is that his pitching isn't broken like Sale's. His release point variation isn't alarming, his velocity is on par with last year's numbers. His walk rate is a bit higher, but he's still striking out over 11 batters per nine innings.
The southpaw's signature pitch is his fastball. He relies on it with 61 percent frequency. At one point last season, he began to elevate this pitch more in order to ameliorate his strike out rate and he is continuing to follow this tendency. This tendency made him an attractive option in the first place to the Yankees, which already have two pitchers in Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino who are similar in this regard. League-wide statistics indicate that elevated fastballs yield a lower rate of balls hit in play than fastballs placed down in the zone and the deceptiveness created by their high spin rate yields more whiffs.
In 68 at-bats, current Boston hitters have mustered only three extra-base hits, a .353 slugging rate, against Paxton. Boston scored one run in its past two games against an awful Baltimore pitching staff while reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts has three hits in his past 25 at-bats (.120). Brock Holt is injured. Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. are listed as 'questionable' with a foot injury and the flu, respectively.
Boston (6-11) at New York Yankees (6-9)
When: 6:35 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees 1H ML
Chris Sale (0-3, 9.00 ERA) continues to struggle for Boston like he never has before. In his last start against a weak Toronto lineup, he gave up five runs in four innings. After three starts, he's already yielding -6.2 units.
Sale's strikeout rate is as low as it's ever been in his career. His walk rate is as high as it's been since 2011 and his opposing home run rate has never been so high. For whatever reason--it could be that he's not completely healthy or it could be as a result of his struggling with mechanics-- his velocity continues to suffer. His fastball is four mph slower than last year's, his change-up and slider are each down close to three mph from last season.
Because he's struggling with mechanics, he isn't able to achieve a consistent delivery, which makes his location unreliable. Evidence for his mechanical issues is in the strong variation of the respective horizontal and vertical release points of his pitches from game to game. He's still trying to find the right point at which to release his pitches.
Although the strike rate of his change-up and slider are down only slightly, his location of these pitches is worse. They're landing in the middle parts of the strike zone with greater frequency while finding the corners of the zone less often. He's throwing his fastball with 11 percent greater frequency for a ball. He throws his fastball about as often as he throws any other pitch, although not to start off batters with. This usage pattern explains why his walk rate is so poor despite the fact that he's throwing a high rate of first-pitch strikes. He is lacking the stuff and location to finish off batters with.
Active and current Yankee players don't have many career at-bats against Sale because many of the ones who do are currently injured. The Yankees still have plenty of weapons with which to hurt Sale. Watch out for DJ LeMahieu, who's batting .396 on the season, .350 in his past seven days, and .400 at home. Aaron Judge has also been hot, batting .315 with two homers in his past seven days.
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James Paxton (1-2, 6.00 ERA) hasn't had the best start for the Yanks. The key is that his pitching isn't broken like Sale's. His release point variation isn't alarming, his velocity is on par with last year's numbers. His walk rate is a bit higher, but he's still striking out over 11 batters per nine innings.
The southpaw's signature pitch is his fastball. He relies on it with 61 percent frequency. At one point last season, he began to elevate this pitch more in order to ameliorate his strike out rate and he is continuing to follow this tendency. This tendency made him an attractive option in the first place to the Yankees, which already have two pitchers in Masahiro Tanaka and Luis Severino who are similar in this regard. League-wide statistics indicate that elevated fastballs yield a lower rate of balls hit in play than fastballs placed down in the zone and the deceptiveness created by their high spin rate yields more whiffs.
In 68 at-bats, current Boston hitters have mustered only three extra-base hits, a .353 slugging rate, against Paxton. Boston scored one run in its past two games against an awful Baltimore pitching staff while reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts has three hits in his past 25 at-bats (.120). Brock Holt is injured. Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. are listed as 'questionable' with a foot injury and the flu, respectively.
