Detective Wanted to Locate Missing Runs in Yankees-Red Sox Clash
The Yankees host storied rival Boston to start a three-game set tonight at 7:05 ET. Both lineups are famously prolific, but the starting pitchers will steal the show tonight.
Boston Red Sox (54-27, 38-40-3 O/U) at New York Yankees (52-26, 33-42-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Boston southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86 ERA) looks to maintain his strong form. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, the exception coming when he faced Seattle for the second time in a week. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is down .43 from last season. He’s achieving more strikeouts and allowing fewer walks and homers. His stuff shows improvement because he is throwing inside the strike zone less often but getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone more often. He’s also allowing lower line drive and hard contact percentages.
His biggest difference from last season has been his reduced fastball usage. He leaned too heavily on this pitch, which made him more predictable and made the opposing slugging against his fastball higher. For example, he threw it 70% of the time against lefties, 64% against righties, when behind in the count. This season, he’s reduced both percentages by 15, so that opponents have a harder time expecting the fastball. His new weapon has been to develop a cutter, which is the main pitch eating into his fastball usage. Opponents are slugging .293 against it with only two doubles in 241 tries. His cutter primarily induces ground balls, so it largely explains his 6.1% increase in ground ball percentage.
This is a tough spot in recent history for Yankee bats. Since 2017, the Yanks have mustered two runs or fewer in the first five innings of every home series opener against Boston. Overall, the Yanks consistently hit the „under“ against lefties, 66.7% of the time. Recently, the „under“ has hit in eight of their last nine home games. On May 10, Rodriguez allowed just one hit in five innings in New York and the Yanks will try to hit him without catcher Gary Sanchez.
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Southpaw CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.18 ERA) also enjoys good from for the Yanks. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. In his last two, he boasts a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Given his inability to throw as hard as he used to, Sabathia no longer relies on a four-seam fastball, pumping instead a sinker, cutter, and slider with extra frequency. His sinker has been his most effective pitch with a .267 opposing slugging percentage. He relies on it especially against lefties in all scenarios. With its strong horizontal movement, it’s especially elusive as he aims to throw it away from them. For instance, he hits the farthest right middle spot in the zone 17.20% of the time against lefties. Against righties, his top weapon is his cutter. Against righties, he locates it most frequently on the periphery and highest row of the zone. They’re batting .212 against it. Against both right- and left-handed batters, Sabathia’s goal is precise location away from the more hittable parts of the plate. His cutter and sinker share nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, so Sabathia benefits from deceiving his batters as to which pitch is approaching them.
Red Sox batters have seen much of Sabathia, but with little success. In 148 career at-bats, active Boston hitters have only two homers against him and four doubles. They’re slugging .318 against him. Xander Bogaerts, for example, is 5-for-30 (.167) against Sabathia and J.D. Martinez 2-for-10 (.200). Last season, Sabathia was 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox. This season, Sabathia saw them once, allowing four runs in four innings. But he achieved 5:0 strikeout-to-walks, a season-high opposing ground ball percentage, and, most tellingly, a 1.41 xFIP. xFIP is like FIP, but also accounts for how many homers a pitcher should have allowed assuming a league average homer-to-fly-ball ratio. This metric indicates that Sabathia’s individual performance was strong.
The Yankees host storied rival Boston to start a three-game set tonight at 7:05 ET. Both lineups are famously prolific, but the starting pitchers will steal the show tonight.
Boston Red Sox (54-27, 38-40-3 O/U) at New York Yankees (52-26, 33-42-3 O/U)
MLB Pick: 1H Under
Boston southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (9-2, 3.86 ERA) looks to maintain his strong form. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, the exception coming when he faced Seattle for the second time in a week. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is down .43 from last season. He’s achieving more strikeouts and allowing fewer walks and homers. His stuff shows improvement because he is throwing inside the strike zone less often but getting batters to chase pitches outside the zone more often. He’s also allowing lower line drive and hard contact percentages.
His biggest difference from last season has been his reduced fastball usage. He leaned too heavily on this pitch, which made him more predictable and made the opposing slugging against his fastball higher. For example, he threw it 70% of the time against lefties, 64% against righties, when behind in the count. This season, he’s reduced both percentages by 15, so that opponents have a harder time expecting the fastball. His new weapon has been to develop a cutter, which is the main pitch eating into his fastball usage. Opponents are slugging .293 against it with only two doubles in 241 tries. His cutter primarily induces ground balls, so it largely explains his 6.1% increase in ground ball percentage.
This is a tough spot in recent history for Yankee bats. Since 2017, the Yanks have mustered two runs or fewer in the first five innings of every home series opener against Boston. Overall, the Yanks consistently hit the „under“ against lefties, 66.7% of the time. Recently, the „under“ has hit in eight of their last nine home games. On May 10, Rodriguez allowed just one hit in five innings in New York and the Yanks will try to hit him without catcher Gary Sanchez.
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Southpaw CC Sabathia (4-3, 3.18 ERA) also enjoys good from for the Yanks. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. In his last two, he boasts a 14:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Given his inability to throw as hard as he used to, Sabathia no longer relies on a four-seam fastball, pumping instead a sinker, cutter, and slider with extra frequency. His sinker has been his most effective pitch with a .267 opposing slugging percentage. He relies on it especially against lefties in all scenarios. With its strong horizontal movement, it’s especially elusive as he aims to throw it away from them. For instance, he hits the farthest right middle spot in the zone 17.20% of the time against lefties. Against righties, his top weapon is his cutter. Against righties, he locates it most frequently on the periphery and highest row of the zone. They’re batting .212 against it. Against both right- and left-handed batters, Sabathia’s goal is precise location away from the more hittable parts of the plate. His cutter and sinker share nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, so Sabathia benefits from deceiving his batters as to which pitch is approaching them.
Red Sox batters have seen much of Sabathia, but with little success. In 148 career at-bats, active Boston hitters have only two homers against him and four doubles. They’re slugging .318 against him. Xander Bogaerts, for example, is 5-for-30 (.167) against Sabathia and J.D. Martinez 2-for-10 (.200). Last season, Sabathia was 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox. This season, Sabathia saw them once, allowing four runs in four innings. But he achieved 5:0 strikeout-to-walks, a season-high opposing ground ball percentage, and, most tellingly, a 1.41 xFIP. xFIP is like FIP, but also accounts for how many homers a pitcher should have allowed assuming a league average homer-to-fly-ball ratio. This metric indicates that Sabathia’s individual performance was strong.
