Yankees Overpriced Tonight Against Nationals
The Yanks open a two-game series tonight against visiting Washington. The 1H RL play on the dog is an option that bettors tend to forget about. But it looks promising tonight.
Washington Nationals (36-27) at New York Yankees (42-19)
MLB Pick: Nationals 1H RL (-110)
The Yanks are showing poor form, but nonetheless are heavily priced. Washington bettors shouldn’t believe that this is too good to be true, the betting market does not adjust for form. The Yanks have been especially slow starters so let’s capitalize on our edge against the market with a 1H play on Washington.
Southpaw CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.59 ERA) is not worth laying heavy chalk on. In his last three games in which New York was favored, he cost his backers $485. Sabathia is not the same pitcher that he was in April. In his last four starts, he has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 5.00.
Throughout his career, the southpaw has been much stronger against same-handed batters. But since May 18 lefty batters are slugging .647 against him. Three of his last four opponents rank since May in the bottom-half in slugging against southpaws. Nevertheless, the Royals, Rangers and Jays combined for five homers against him.
Sabathia’s vulnerability to the home run is representative of larger struggles with command. In April, he didn’t walk more than two batters in a single game and suffered one multi-homer game. Since May, there have been two games with over two walks and two multi-homer games. He has allowed a home run in five consecutive outings. His problems with command have prevented him from lasting longer in outings. In four of his last five starts he didn’t make it to the sixth inning. So in innings four and five we’ll see Sabathia near the end of his ropes whereas Washington’s starter will still be pitching with more gas in the tank.
Washington batters are hitting his pitches well. They rank 11th in the past two weeks against them thrown by lefties and that doesn’t include their demolition of two southpaws making their first career start. One trend for prop bettors to be aware of is that the Nats have scored first in each of the openers of their four road stands. The Nats won all four games, scoring at least eight runs in three of them. Overall, they’re a profitable road team, yielding +9.0 units away from D.C. Look out for Mark Reynolds, who is batting .379 against southpaws. Anthony Rendon is slugging .510 against them.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Harper leads the National League in home runs. <br><br>Bryce Harper leads all NL OF in <a href="https://twitter.com/AllStarGame?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@AllStarGame</a> votes.<br><br>️ // <a href="https://t.co/94Tjblm7Np">https://t.co/94Tjblm7Np</a> <a href="https://t.co/8b8LkTZwXN">pic.twitter.com/8b8LkTZwXN</a></p>— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) <a href=" ">11. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>
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Nationals starter Tanner Roark (3-6, 3.56 ERA) has been keeping the ball in the ballpark, avoiding walks and lasting longer into outings. It’s important for Roark to have good control of his pitches because he likes to induce ground balls by locating them low in the strike zone. In his worst game on April 8, he located the vast majority of his pitches in the middle of the plate. Since May, his four most frequent pitch locations have been in the bottom row of the strike zone. In his last four starts his average opposing ground ball percentage is 50.
Roark relies on a variety of pitches. His key is to not overemphasize his fastball, which he featured over 20% of the time in his worst performances. His most frequent pitch and most important ground-ball inducing pitch is his sinker. He relies on it most in all scenarios. Since May, opponents have mustered three-extra base hits against it in 234 tries. Roark’s last six opponents batted .208 against it.
Yankee batters are starting slow. Consequently, the NYY 1H ML is 0-4-2 in their last six games. They produced one run in two of those first-halves and none in the rest. Against Roark’s five pitches, thrown by righties, the Yanks are slugging below average in the past two weeks. Aaron Judge is batting .095 in his past seven days, Giancarlo Stanton is batting .207 at home.
The Yanks open a two-game series tonight against visiting Washington. The 1H RL play on the dog is an option that bettors tend to forget about. But it looks promising tonight.
Washington Nationals (36-27) at New York Yankees (42-19)
MLB Pick: Nationals 1H RL (-110)
The Yanks are showing poor form, but nonetheless are heavily priced. Washington bettors shouldn’t believe that this is too good to be true, the betting market does not adjust for form. The Yanks have been especially slow starters so let’s capitalize on our edge against the market with a 1H play on Washington.
Southpaw CC Sabathia (3-1, 3.59 ERA) is not worth laying heavy chalk on. In his last three games in which New York was favored, he cost his backers $485. Sabathia is not the same pitcher that he was in April. In his last four starts, he has yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) over 5.00.
Throughout his career, the southpaw has been much stronger against same-handed batters. But since May 18 lefty batters are slugging .647 against him. Three of his last four opponents rank since May in the bottom-half in slugging against southpaws. Nevertheless, the Royals, Rangers and Jays combined for five homers against him.
Sabathia’s vulnerability to the home run is representative of larger struggles with command. In April, he didn’t walk more than two batters in a single game and suffered one multi-homer game. Since May, there have been two games with over two walks and two multi-homer games. He has allowed a home run in five consecutive outings. His problems with command have prevented him from lasting longer in outings. In four of his last five starts he didn’t make it to the sixth inning. So in innings four and five we’ll see Sabathia near the end of his ropes whereas Washington’s starter will still be pitching with more gas in the tank.
Washington batters are hitting his pitches well. They rank 11th in the past two weeks against them thrown by lefties and that doesn’t include their demolition of two southpaws making their first career start. One trend for prop bettors to be aware of is that the Nats have scored first in each of the openers of their four road stands. The Nats won all four games, scoring at least eight runs in three of them. Overall, they’re a profitable road team, yielding +9.0 units away from D.C. Look out for Mark Reynolds, who is batting .379 against southpaws. Anthony Rendon is slugging .510 against them.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Bryce Harper leads the National League in home runs. <br><br>Bryce Harper leads all NL OF in <a href="https://twitter.com/AllStarGame?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">@AllStarGame</a> votes.<br><br>️ // <a href="https://t.co/94Tjblm7Np">https://t.co/94Tjblm7Np</a> <a href="https://t.co/8b8LkTZwXN">pic.twitter.com/8b8LkTZwXN</a></p>— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) <a href=" ">11. Juni 2018</a></blockquote>
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Nationals starter Tanner Roark (3-6, 3.56 ERA) has been keeping the ball in the ballpark, avoiding walks and lasting longer into outings. It’s important for Roark to have good control of his pitches because he likes to induce ground balls by locating them low in the strike zone. In his worst game on April 8, he located the vast majority of his pitches in the middle of the plate. Since May, his four most frequent pitch locations have been in the bottom row of the strike zone. In his last four starts his average opposing ground ball percentage is 50.
Roark relies on a variety of pitches. His key is to not overemphasize his fastball, which he featured over 20% of the time in his worst performances. His most frequent pitch and most important ground-ball inducing pitch is his sinker. He relies on it most in all scenarios. Since May, opponents have mustered three-extra base hits against it in 234 tries. Roark’s last six opponents batted .208 against it.
Yankee batters are starting slow. Consequently, the NYY 1H ML is 0-4-2 in their last six games. They produced one run in two of those first-halves and none in the rest. Against Roark’s five pitches, thrown by righties, the Yanks are slugging below average in the past two weeks. Aaron Judge is batting .095 in his past seven days, Giancarlo Stanton is batting .207 at home.
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