New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Sportsbooks have yet to post their odds for tonight's game between the Yankees and Mets.
The reason for this delay is that the Yankees haven't officially decided who will start for them.
It does seem clear, however, who their options are. I will break down those options and suggest how each of them influences the Yankees' chances tonight.
This is a big game for both teams as each one tries to win the three-game series tonight and, at the same time, hunts for a wild card spot.
We know that the Yankees will want to start their best option on the mound tonight.
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Yankee Starters' Injury Situation
A number of injuries has caused the Yanks to have a messy situation in their starting rotation.
Gerrit Cole left his last start on Tuesday with tightness in his left hamstring. He just threw a bullpen session.
Jameson Taillon continues to suffer soreness in his right ankle.
Domingo German is dealing with inflammation in his right shoulder. He'll pitch in a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.
Important Decision
Tonight's starter will likely be a veteran who couldn't cut it in the Yankee starting rotation or a youngster either on the professional roster or pitching in the minors.
The decision of which pitcher to start will have a tremendous influence on the outcome of tonight's contest. So let's go through the options one by one.
Andrew Heaney
It's not like Andrew Heaney was a good pitcher in the last three years. But his last three seasons look good in comparison with what he's done this year: his current ERA is 5.86.
He's having more trouble with walks and home runs. In particular, the fact that he's allowed at least three home runs in five different starts this season makes him hard to trust.
His last four appearances have, therefore, come out of the bullpen, although he hadn't pitched as a reliever since his rookie year in 2014.
The fact that he has already allowed eight earned runs in 4.1 innings of relief work doesn't inspire any optimism.
Luis Gil
Luis Gil is in the doghouse, so to speak, after allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last start.
The worry isn't so much the fact that he allowed so many runs in so few innings, it's both the fact that it could have been much worse and the reason why.
He yielded an absurd seven walks, which has led his current walk rate to spike to 6.63 walks per nine innings.
Gil is a wild pitcher who lacks a repeatable delivery. Moreover, he makes it easier for batters to figure him out by only having two primary pitches, which is nice for a reliever, but troublesome for a starter.
His fastball and slider combine to make up well over 90 percent of his arsenal.
If either Heaney or Gil starts, I would recommend playing the Mets on the first-half money-line.
Clarke Schmidt
Clarke Schmidt has some professional experience: he pitched 6.1 innings for the Yankees last season.
Before that bit of professional experience, Schmidt had never pitched at a higher level than double A. Since his stint as a pro, he has worked himself up to Triple A where he has pitched the majority of his innings this season.
I like Schmidt for two reasons: for starters, with his stuff, he would carry a nice element of surprise if he were to pitch tonight against Met batters who are unfamiliar with his stuff.
Primarily, Schmidt features a tough breaking ball that is hard to classify. One may call it either a curveball or a slider.
His curveball/slider is hard and sharp. It regularly hits in the mid-80s, which is an unusually high velocity for this pitch. Its high velocity is accompanied by a very high spin rate, which makes the pitch harder for batters to track.
Schmidt's second primary pitch is a two-seam fastball that has nice tailing action.
Importantly, Schmidt has improved his control massively during his time in the majors, as evident in his stark reduction in walk rate.
With nice stuff, an element of surprise, and improved control, Schmidt would be a great option for the Yankees tonight.
Michael King
The Yanks could also start Michael King tonight. While he appeared on September 10, he only threw 45 pitches.
It's easy to like King because, in seven innings against the Mets this season, he's allowed one earned run. The easiest way to establish whether a pitcher can do something -- like succeed against the Mets -- is to see if he's already done it.
If King or Schmidt starts tonight, I would recommend a first-half "under."
Carlos Carrasco vs. Yankee batters
My two options are either the Mets first-half money-line or the first-half "under" because I dlslike the Mets bullpen options -- both because of the overall bullpen quality and the freshness of its top relievers -- but I really like Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco will start for the Mets tonight. He matches up well against a Yankee lineup that, this season, ranks 24th in slugging .398 against his four favorite pitches -- the 4-seam fastball, change-up, slider, and sinker -- from righties.
Those four pitches make up just under 95 percent of his arsenal. The Yanks are also struggling most recently against those pitches. During their current homestand, they rank 25th in slugging .364 against these pitches from righties.
In two at-bats against Carrasco, Aaron Judge, for example, struck out both times.
Best Bet: First-Half Mets ML or First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
Sportsbooks have yet to post their odds for tonight's game between the Yankees and Mets.
The reason for this delay is that the Yankees haven't officially decided who will start for them.
It does seem clear, however, who their options are. I will break down those options and suggest how each of them influences the Yankees' chances tonight.
This is a big game for both teams as each one tries to win the three-game series tonight and, at the same time, hunts for a wild card spot.
We know that the Yankees will want to start their best option on the mound tonight.
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Sunday, September 12, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Citi Field in Queens, New York
Yankee Starters' Injury Situation
A number of injuries has caused the Yanks to have a messy situation in their starting rotation.
Gerrit Cole left his last start on Tuesday with tightness in his left hamstring. He just threw a bullpen session.
Jameson Taillon continues to suffer soreness in his right ankle.
Domingo German is dealing with inflammation in his right shoulder. He'll pitch in a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday.
Important Decision
Tonight's starter will likely be a veteran who couldn't cut it in the Yankee starting rotation or a youngster either on the professional roster or pitching in the minors.
The decision of which pitcher to start will have a tremendous influence on the outcome of tonight's contest. So let's go through the options one by one.
Andrew Heaney
It's not like Andrew Heaney was a good pitcher in the last three years. But his last three seasons look good in comparison with what he's done this year: his current ERA is 5.86.
He's having more trouble with walks and home runs. In particular, the fact that he's allowed at least three home runs in five different starts this season makes him hard to trust.
His last four appearances have, therefore, come out of the bullpen, although he hadn't pitched as a reliever since his rookie year in 2014.
The fact that he has already allowed eight earned runs in 4.1 innings of relief work doesn't inspire any optimism.
Luis Gil
Luis Gil is in the doghouse, so to speak, after allowing three earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last start.
The worry isn't so much the fact that he allowed so many runs in so few innings, it's both the fact that it could have been much worse and the reason why.
He yielded an absurd seven walks, which has led his current walk rate to spike to 6.63 walks per nine innings.
Gil is a wild pitcher who lacks a repeatable delivery. Moreover, he makes it easier for batters to figure him out by only having two primary pitches, which is nice for a reliever, but troublesome for a starter.
His fastball and slider combine to make up well over 90 percent of his arsenal.
If either Heaney or Gil starts, I would recommend playing the Mets on the first-half money-line.
Clarke Schmidt
Clarke Schmidt has some professional experience: he pitched 6.1 innings for the Yankees last season.
Before that bit of professional experience, Schmidt had never pitched at a higher level than double A. Since his stint as a pro, he has worked himself up to Triple A where he has pitched the majority of his innings this season.
I like Schmidt for two reasons: for starters, with his stuff, he would carry a nice element of surprise if he were to pitch tonight against Met batters who are unfamiliar with his stuff.
Primarily, Schmidt features a tough breaking ball that is hard to classify. One may call it either a curveball or a slider.
His curveball/slider is hard and sharp. It regularly hits in the mid-80s, which is an unusually high velocity for this pitch. Its high velocity is accompanied by a very high spin rate, which makes the pitch harder for batters to track.
Schmidt's second primary pitch is a two-seam fastball that has nice tailing action.
Importantly, Schmidt has improved his control massively during his time in the majors, as evident in his stark reduction in walk rate.
With nice stuff, an element of surprise, and improved control, Schmidt would be a great option for the Yankees tonight.
Michael King
The Yanks could also start Michael King tonight. While he appeared on September 10, he only threw 45 pitches.
It's easy to like King because, in seven innings against the Mets this season, he's allowed one earned run. The easiest way to establish whether a pitcher can do something -- like succeed against the Mets -- is to see if he's already done it.
If King or Schmidt starts tonight, I would recommend a first-half "under."
Carlos Carrasco vs. Yankee batters
My two options are either the Mets first-half money-line or the first-half "under" because I dlslike the Mets bullpen options -- both because of the overall bullpen quality and the freshness of its top relievers -- but I really like Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco will start for the Mets tonight. He matches up well against a Yankee lineup that, this season, ranks 24th in slugging .398 against his four favorite pitches -- the 4-seam fastball, change-up, slider, and sinker -- from righties.
Those four pitches make up just under 95 percent of his arsenal. The Yanks are also struggling most recently against those pitches. During their current homestand, they rank 25th in slugging .364 against these pitches from righties.
In two at-bats against Carrasco, Aaron Judge, for example, struck out both times.
Best Bet: First-Half Mets ML or First-Half Under (Odds TBA)
