Mets to Become Kings of New York in Yankee Stadium on Monday
The Yankees host the Mets on Monday at 7 ET on ESPN. Two elite-caliber pitchers square off, but only the Mets’ is enjoying elite form.
New York Mets at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: Mets
Mets’ starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) currently has the MLB’s best ERA among starting pitchers and only a fraction of it is luck. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 2.20. He’s inducing a career-high soft contact rate. He’s inducing about as many whiffs as last season, but surrendering vastly fewer walks and home runs, meaning that opponents have to work hard just to put runners in scoring position against him. He’s inducing batters to swing at his stuff outside the zone more often, while they struggle to make contact with his pitches inside the zone, even though he doesn’t back down from throwing them inside.
deGrom leans on his fastball with 41% frequency. It averages a career-high 96.38 mph. High velocity is one tool that a pitcher can use to supersede the batter’s reaction skills. Another is deception. deGrom’s fastball and sinker share similar horizontal and vertical release points, meaning that both pitches look identical to the batter based on the pitcher’s delivery, so that the batter needs more time to figure out which pitch is approaching him. His fastball is an example of why he is able to throw in the zone so often. He’s so strong and deceptive with it, that opponents only bat .223 against it, even though he frequently throws it down the middle. deGrom’s second-favorite pitch is the slider, which he throws with 24% frequency. He relies on his fastball most in all scenarios but he also features his slider with two strikes. It carries extremely strong velocity for a slider, 91 mph, and tight but difficult movement, yet he pinpoints it with 24% frequency in the lowest right corner of the strike zone.
The future Cy Young award winner (i’m calling it now) has yielded an FIP under 1.80 in four of his last five starts and under 3.00 in his last five. He’s lasted eight innings in four of his six starts, which is great news for a team with shoddy bullpen play. In June against the Yanks, he allowed two runs in eight innings. He kept Didi Gregorius, who has been hot lately, hitless. Gregorius is 2-for-12 lifetime against deGrom.
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Luis Severino (15-5, 3.11) counters for the Yankees. Severino had strongly improved from last season largely because he’s stopped conceding so many home runs. But, in his last six games, he’s averaged 1.5 opposing homers, despite lasting more than five innings in only two of those games. Severino was great in his last start, but that came against the lousy White Sox. Before that game, he had allowed at least four runs in four consecutive starts with an FIP over 5.00 in each one.
Severino relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 87% of his arsenal. His biggest tool is velocity, which makes him a bad fit for Yankee stadium. Yankee pitchers have been striving to deviate from the fastball because of its vulnerability in Yankee stadium. But it’s Severino’s favorite pitch, so he’s trapped. HIs last five opponents, including the White Sox, slugged over .600 against his favorite pitch. He’s locating it poorly, frequently leaving it in the middle of the plate, where opponents are taking advantage. They slug at least 1.000 against his pitches in the two most middle spots in the zone.
The Mets are hitting well lately, producing six or more runs in three of their last five. They’re also steadily improving against velocity. In the past week, they rank 10th, slugging .474, against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball, which is Severino’s favorite pitch. Todd Frazier is 3-for-6 in his career against Severino.
The Yankees host the Mets on Monday at 7 ET on ESPN. Two elite-caliber pitchers square off, but only the Mets’ is enjoying elite form.
New York Mets at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: Mets
Mets’ starting pitcher Jacob deGrom (6-7, 1.77 ERA) currently has the MLB’s best ERA among starting pitchers and only a fraction of it is luck. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 2.20. He’s inducing a career-high soft contact rate. He’s inducing about as many whiffs as last season, but surrendering vastly fewer walks and home runs, meaning that opponents have to work hard just to put runners in scoring position against him. He’s inducing batters to swing at his stuff outside the zone more often, while they struggle to make contact with his pitches inside the zone, even though he doesn’t back down from throwing them inside.
deGrom leans on his fastball with 41% frequency. It averages a career-high 96.38 mph. High velocity is one tool that a pitcher can use to supersede the batter’s reaction skills. Another is deception. deGrom’s fastball and sinker share similar horizontal and vertical release points, meaning that both pitches look identical to the batter based on the pitcher’s delivery, so that the batter needs more time to figure out which pitch is approaching him. His fastball is an example of why he is able to throw in the zone so often. He’s so strong and deceptive with it, that opponents only bat .223 against it, even though he frequently throws it down the middle. deGrom’s second-favorite pitch is the slider, which he throws with 24% frequency. He relies on his fastball most in all scenarios but he also features his slider with two strikes. It carries extremely strong velocity for a slider, 91 mph, and tight but difficult movement, yet he pinpoints it with 24% frequency in the lowest right corner of the strike zone.
The future Cy Young award winner (i’m calling it now) has yielded an FIP under 1.80 in four of his last five starts and under 3.00 in his last five. He’s lasted eight innings in four of his six starts, which is great news for a team with shoddy bullpen play. In June against the Yanks, he allowed two runs in eight innings. He kept Didi Gregorius, who has been hot lately, hitless. Gregorius is 2-for-12 lifetime against deGrom.
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Luis Severino (15-5, 3.11) counters for the Yankees. Severino had strongly improved from last season largely because he’s stopped conceding so many home runs. But, in his last six games, he’s averaged 1.5 opposing homers, despite lasting more than five innings in only two of those games. Severino was great in his last start, but that came against the lousy White Sox. Before that game, he had allowed at least four runs in four consecutive starts with an FIP over 5.00 in each one.
Severino relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 87% of his arsenal. His biggest tool is velocity, which makes him a bad fit for Yankee stadium. Yankee pitchers have been striving to deviate from the fastball because of its vulnerability in Yankee stadium. But it’s Severino’s favorite pitch, so he’s trapped. HIs last five opponents, including the White Sox, slugged over .600 against his favorite pitch. He’s locating it poorly, frequently leaving it in the middle of the plate, where opponents are taking advantage. They slug at least 1.000 against his pitches in the two most middle spots in the zone.
The Mets are hitting well lately, producing six or more runs in three of their last five. They’re also steadily improving against velocity. In the past week, they rank 10th, slugging .474, against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball, which is Severino’s favorite pitch. Todd Frazier is 3-for-6 in his career against Severino.
You a fighter Naught??
