Thor’s Thunder Will Deafen Yankee Bats in Mets Victory
The Yankees begin a three-game home series against the Mets on Friday at 7:05 ET. A pitching mismatch will keep the Yanks from beginning the second half of the season with a win.
New York Mets (39-55) at New York Yankees (62-33)
MLB Pick: Mets 1H RL
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard (5-1, 2.97 ERA) returned from the DL on July 13 without skipping a beat. Syndergaard, aka Thor, has achieved an FIP under 3.20 in his last four starts and is yielding +2.0 units. He is in a prime spot on Friday because his career ERA is 2.83 with 6+ days’ rest.
Syndergaard’s stuff is uniquely good. He combines strong velocity with heavy movement and good location. He relies on five different pitches with at least 10% frequency, his favorite being the sinker, which he throws with 38% frequency. He relies on it most in all situations, except with two strikes, where he features his favorite strikeout pitch, the slider. His sinker averages 98 mph and boasts strong horizontal and vertical movement. His three most frequent sinker locations are on the periphery or lowest row of the zone. But his sinker is so effective that, even when it lands in dead middle, opponents’ ISO (isolated power; measures extra base hits) is only .063. Opponents slug .220 against his slider. It averages 93 mph, more than any other pitcher’s slider. He places it with 63% frequency in the lowest-right three spots in the zone, where opponents whiff with 30% frequency against it.
With his strong command, Thor could throw in the zone more frequently, but he doesn’t need to. He induces opponents to chase his pitches outside the zone with 35.9% frequency, more than every other pitcher besides All-Stars Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale. Thor induces soft contact at the second-highest rate.
Thor’s elite quality defies the usefulness of match-up statistics. Out of 12 starts, he was unsharp in two—the season opener where he made location errors and allowed two homers—and another game where, off four days’ rest, he walked a season-high four batters. In the 10 other starts, he yielded an FIP no higher than 3.31. The well-rested Thor already has experience against former Marlin Giancarlo Stanton, who is 0-for-11 against him.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thor's 97 mph Sinker is possessed. <br> <br>Seriously, WTF? How is this OK? <a href="https://t.co/qOap459k55">pic.twitter.com/qOap459k55</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">April 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thor, Obscene 89mph Changeup...again. <br><br>This is seriously ridiculous. <a href="https://t.co/5z3DRJAOEW">pic.twitter.com/5z3DRJAOEW</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">April 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Yankees starter Domingo German (2-5, 5.49 ERA) should view Syndergaard as a role model. German has amazing talent evidenced by an opposing 34.6% chase rate. But his talent is raw. His stuff isn’t as developed and he often struggles for command and sharpness. He is at his worst off more than four days’ rest. Both of his wins came off four days’ rest. In three starts off five days’ rest his ERA is 7.20. In two starts with six days’ rest, his ERA is 8.71. So expect worse stuff—fewer strikeouts— and weaker command—more walks. German entered the break in poor form, allowing 10 runs and nine walks in his last 14.1 innings pitched.
German relies on a fastball-sinker-curve combo. After three starts in July, he’s throwing the fastball and curve with just over 30% frequency, the sinker just over 20%. His fastball and sinker usage have cut into that of his curveball and especially change-up. His change-up, curve, and fastball have been problematic, no matter how often he throws each one. In his last three starts, the opponent slammed at least one of those pitches with a slugging percentage of .500 or higher. Overall, he’s inducing soft contact at a rate below his season average.
Part of German’s problem is quality. He’s losing velocity every month. In July, his top three pitches have dropped a full mph from June. His command is worse, so he’s walking more batters. His increased fastball reliance has also made him more predictable because he throws it so often as his first pitch against a righty. Right-handed opponents are slugging an insane 2.000 against his first-pitch fastball.
Despite its overall poor numbers, the Mets’ lineup ranks seventh in runs per game on the road. Asdrubal Cabrera is slugging over .500 away and over .600 in his last seven days.
The Yankees begin a three-game home series against the Mets on Friday at 7:05 ET. A pitching mismatch will keep the Yanks from beginning the second half of the season with a win.
New York Mets (39-55) at New York Yankees (62-33)
MLB Pick: Mets 1H RL
Mets starter Noah Syndergaard (5-1, 2.97 ERA) returned from the DL on July 13 without skipping a beat. Syndergaard, aka Thor, has achieved an FIP under 3.20 in his last four starts and is yielding +2.0 units. He is in a prime spot on Friday because his career ERA is 2.83 with 6+ days’ rest.
Syndergaard’s stuff is uniquely good. He combines strong velocity with heavy movement and good location. He relies on five different pitches with at least 10% frequency, his favorite being the sinker, which he throws with 38% frequency. He relies on it most in all situations, except with two strikes, where he features his favorite strikeout pitch, the slider. His sinker averages 98 mph and boasts strong horizontal and vertical movement. His three most frequent sinker locations are on the periphery or lowest row of the zone. But his sinker is so effective that, even when it lands in dead middle, opponents’ ISO (isolated power; measures extra base hits) is only .063. Opponents slug .220 against his slider. It averages 93 mph, more than any other pitcher’s slider. He places it with 63% frequency in the lowest-right three spots in the zone, where opponents whiff with 30% frequency against it.
With his strong command, Thor could throw in the zone more frequently, but he doesn’t need to. He induces opponents to chase his pitches outside the zone with 35.9% frequency, more than every other pitcher besides All-Stars Jacob deGrom and Chris Sale. Thor induces soft contact at the second-highest rate.
Thor’s elite quality defies the usefulness of match-up statistics. Out of 12 starts, he was unsharp in two—the season opener where he made location errors and allowed two homers—and another game where, off four days’ rest, he walked a season-high four batters. In the 10 other starts, he yielded an FIP no higher than 3.31. The well-rested Thor already has experience against former Marlin Giancarlo Stanton, who is 0-for-11 against him.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thor's 97 mph Sinker is possessed. <br> <br>Seriously, WTF? How is this OK? <a href="https://t.co/qOap459k55">pic.twitter.com/qOap459k55</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">April 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Thor, Obscene 89mph Changeup...again. <br><br>This is seriously ridiculous. <a href="https://t.co/5z3DRJAOEW">pic.twitter.com/5z3DRJAOEW</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href=" ">April 15, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Yankees starter Domingo German (2-5, 5.49 ERA) should view Syndergaard as a role model. German has amazing talent evidenced by an opposing 34.6% chase rate. But his talent is raw. His stuff isn’t as developed and he often struggles for command and sharpness. He is at his worst off more than four days’ rest. Both of his wins came off four days’ rest. In three starts off five days’ rest his ERA is 7.20. In two starts with six days’ rest, his ERA is 8.71. So expect worse stuff—fewer strikeouts— and weaker command—more walks. German entered the break in poor form, allowing 10 runs and nine walks in his last 14.1 innings pitched.
German relies on a fastball-sinker-curve combo. After three starts in July, he’s throwing the fastball and curve with just over 30% frequency, the sinker just over 20%. His fastball and sinker usage have cut into that of his curveball and especially change-up. His change-up, curve, and fastball have been problematic, no matter how often he throws each one. In his last three starts, the opponent slammed at least one of those pitches with a slugging percentage of .500 or higher. Overall, he’s inducing soft contact at a rate below his season average.
Part of German’s problem is quality. He’s losing velocity every month. In July, his top three pitches have dropped a full mph from June. His command is worse, so he’s walking more batters. His increased fastball reliance has also made him more predictable because he throws it so often as his first pitch against a righty. Right-handed opponents are slugging an insane 2.000 against his first-pitch fastball.
Despite its overall poor numbers, the Mets’ lineup ranks seventh in runs per game on the road. Asdrubal Cabrera is slugging over .500 away and over .600 in his last seven days.
Last edited:
Hope this hits
