Yankees vs Braves: MLB Best Bets
New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Gerrit Cole
On the surface, Gerrit Cole seems to be enjoying a great season. He’s 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA.
But his 2.75 ERA conceals a 3.81 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 3.47 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average fly ball to home run ratio).
In particular, he is benefitting from a 94.8-percent strand rate, which is statistically unsustainable. His career average strand rate is 18.8 percent lower.
While Cole is amassing a lot of strikeouts, he is not achieving as many as he usually does per nine innings. Cole also has a home run problem. He’s allowed at least one homer in all six of his starts this season.
Two factors contribute to Cole’s vulnerability to the long ball.
One is that he struggles to find a third quality pitch. Both his change-up and curveball have been ineffective as each pitch yields a slugging rate over .600.
A second factor is that his fastball often lands in the more middle parts of the plate. For example, 6.83 percent of its strikes lands directly down the middle and opponents are slugging 1.714 when it does.
Ronald Acuna
Ronald Acuna is one Atlanta player who can exploit Cole’s home run problem.
Currently, he’s tied among Atlanta players with four home runs this season even though he’s been suffering from wrist inflammation for the past two weeks.
Acuna has taken batting practice multiple times and it is very possible that the Braves activate him before Tuesday’s opener against the Yankees.
Cole vs Braves Batters
Cole matches up poorly with the Braves because he relies so heavily on his high-velocity fastball. He throws this pitch with 56.97 percent frequency.
His other primary pitch is a slider, although he rarely throws this pitch against lefties.
I like lefties against Cole because, instead of his slider, Cole will emphasize his inferior curveball against them.
This switch in pitch emphasis is a big reason why he yields a 6.33 FIP against lefties.
So look for especially Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte to take advantage.
Freeman is 5-for-14 (.357) with a .714 slugging rate against Cole.
In his lifetime against Cole, Inciarte is 7-for-16 (.438) with a .500 slugging rate.
Even when facing righties, Cole emphasizes his slider primarily only later in the count.
This means that if the Braves thrive against Cole’s fastball, then they largely get to avoid dealing with his slider.
Cole’s reliance on his high-velo fastball is important because the Braves rank fourth in slugging .531 against the high-velo fastball.
Several righties hit Cole well, as well. Guys like Dansby Swanson, who is 2-for-5 (.400) versus Cole with a double and a homer, contribute to Atlanta’s strong numbers against Cole.
Active Brave batters hit .299 and slug .505 in 107 cumulative at-bats against Cole. Six different Atlanta hitters slug .500 or higher with Cole on the mound.
Who Will Start For Atlanta?
As Atlanta’s starters own the fifth-worst collective ERA in baseball, the answer to this question essentially doesn’t matter.
Crucially, Max Fried is not an option to start in the series opener because he would be pitching off too little rest — he last pitched on August 21.
Overall, Atlanta’s starting rotation has been an absolute mess with Fried being the one exception.
Due to their poor performances, Sean Newcomb and Kyle Wright have been optioned.
Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin also recently pitched. Mike Soroka is injured.
Touki Toussaint, who currently owns a 7.89 ERA, is suffering from mechanical issues which contribute to his enormous problems with command.
He has been switching from a rotation that really needs an arm to a bullpen where he can’t hurt the rotation. He pitched in relief in the series finale against Philadelphia. So he’s anyhow not an option to start.
After doing some digging, it seems a real possibility that Ian Anderson gets brought up from Triple A to make his professional debut.
Currently in Triple A, Anderson is walking 6.57 batters per nine innings while yielding an equally atrocious 6.57 ERA and 6.42 FIP. It’s hard to imagine him improving upon these numbers against a fearsome Yankee lineup.
Aaron Judge
Yankee slugger Aaron Judge is likely to be activated ahead of Tuesday’s contest.
His readiness is great news. Right now, he’s batting .290, slugging .758, and has belted nine home runs.
The Verdict
Gerrit Cole faces a tough match-up for him in an Atlanta squad that features a bevy of players who hit him well. They will exploit his reliance on his fastball.
Atlanta’s starting rotation lacks any positive options. No matter who takes the mound, expect a low-quality performance that will be magnified by the return of Aaron Judge.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, August 25, 2020 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park in Cumberland, Georgia
Gerrit Cole
On the surface, Gerrit Cole seems to be enjoying a great season. He’s 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA.
But his 2.75 ERA conceals a 3.81 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 3.47 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league-average fly ball to home run ratio).
In particular, he is benefitting from a 94.8-percent strand rate, which is statistically unsustainable. His career average strand rate is 18.8 percent lower.
While Cole is amassing a lot of strikeouts, he is not achieving as many as he usually does per nine innings. Cole also has a home run problem. He’s allowed at least one homer in all six of his starts this season.
Two factors contribute to Cole’s vulnerability to the long ball.
One is that he struggles to find a third quality pitch. Both his change-up and curveball have been ineffective as each pitch yields a slugging rate over .600.
A second factor is that his fastball often lands in the more middle parts of the plate. For example, 6.83 percent of its strikes lands directly down the middle and opponents are slugging 1.714 when it does.
Ronald Acuna
Ronald Acuna is one Atlanta player who can exploit Cole’s home run problem.
Currently, he’s tied among Atlanta players with four home runs this season even though he’s been suffering from wrist inflammation for the past two weeks.
Acuna has taken batting practice multiple times and it is very possible that the Braves activate him before Tuesday’s opener against the Yankees.
Cole vs Braves Batters
Cole matches up poorly with the Braves because he relies so heavily on his high-velocity fastball. He throws this pitch with 56.97 percent frequency.
His other primary pitch is a slider, although he rarely throws this pitch against lefties.
I like lefties against Cole because, instead of his slider, Cole will emphasize his inferior curveball against them.
This switch in pitch emphasis is a big reason why he yields a 6.33 FIP against lefties.
So look for especially Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte to take advantage.
Freeman is 5-for-14 (.357) with a .714 slugging rate against Cole.
In his lifetime against Cole, Inciarte is 7-for-16 (.438) with a .500 slugging rate.
Even when facing righties, Cole emphasizes his slider primarily only later in the count.
This means that if the Braves thrive against Cole’s fastball, then they largely get to avoid dealing with his slider.
Cole’s reliance on his high-velo fastball is important because the Braves rank fourth in slugging .531 against the high-velo fastball.
Several righties hit Cole well, as well. Guys like Dansby Swanson, who is 2-for-5 (.400) versus Cole with a double and a homer, contribute to Atlanta’s strong numbers against Cole.
Active Brave batters hit .299 and slug .505 in 107 cumulative at-bats against Cole. Six different Atlanta hitters slug .500 or higher with Cole on the mound.
Who Will Start For Atlanta?
As Atlanta’s starters own the fifth-worst collective ERA in baseball, the answer to this question essentially doesn’t matter.
Crucially, Max Fried is not an option to start in the series opener because he would be pitching off too little rest — he last pitched on August 21.
Overall, Atlanta’s starting rotation has been an absolute mess with Fried being the one exception.
Due to their poor performances, Sean Newcomb and Kyle Wright have been optioned.
Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin also recently pitched. Mike Soroka is injured.
Touki Toussaint, who currently owns a 7.89 ERA, is suffering from mechanical issues which contribute to his enormous problems with command.
He has been switching from a rotation that really needs an arm to a bullpen where he can’t hurt the rotation. He pitched in relief in the series finale against Philadelphia. So he’s anyhow not an option to start.
After doing some digging, it seems a real possibility that Ian Anderson gets brought up from Triple A to make his professional debut.
Currently in Triple A, Anderson is walking 6.57 batters per nine innings while yielding an equally atrocious 6.57 ERA and 6.42 FIP. It’s hard to imagine him improving upon these numbers against a fearsome Yankee lineup.
Aaron Judge
Yankee slugger Aaron Judge is likely to be activated ahead of Tuesday’s contest.
His readiness is great news. Right now, he’s batting .290, slugging .758, and has belted nine home runs.
The Verdict
Gerrit Cole faces a tough match-up for him in an Atlanta squad that features a bevy of players who hit him well. They will exploit his reliance on his fastball.
Atlanta’s starting rotation lacks any positive options. No matter who takes the mound, expect a low-quality performance that will be magnified by the return of Aaron Judge.
Best Bet: First-Half Over (Odds TBA)
