The South Will Rise Again When Atlanta Visits New York
After a series with rival Boston, the Yankees begin a three-game series with Atlanta on Monday at 7:05 ET. The Yanks will field the more talented team on paper, but will that bring them a win tonight?
Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees
MLB Pick: Atlanta 1H
New York’s Domingo German (2-4, 5.32 ERA) flashes talent and potential, but is less MLB-ready. He thrives in preventing contact, but the key is that he is inconsistent, mistake-prone, and otherwise struggles to prevent runs.
German relies on a fastball-curveball combo. He throws both pitches with significant velocity and spin. The spin in his curveball makes it induce more ground balls while his fastball appears to „rise“ so that batters swing underneath it and cause a fly ball or strike out. German is equally strong, in terms of FIP, (like ERA, but factors out luck) against left-handed batters as against same-handed ones because he can command a variety of pitches. His change-up is most useful in neutralizing opposite-hand batters. It’s his second-favorite pitch against them and, with its significant movement and velocity differential relative to his fastball, procures the highest whiff-rate against them. He doesn’t like to elevate his stuff, but keeps it concentrated within the middle and lower regions of the strike zone. More often, he lets his stuff dip out of the zone. Only 42% of his pitches land within the strike zone. But, his stuff is so good, that batters chase his pitches outside the zone with 35% frequency. He generates the fourth-highest swinging strike percentage, behind aces Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
The youngster is nonetheless hittable. Three of his pitches, the fastball, sinker, and change-up, yield an opposing slugging percentage higher than the best team’s slugging percentage (.459). Opposing hitters can track the path of his pitches and exploit their poor location. Some of his most frequent pitch placements are in the more middle regions of the zone. Opponents whiff most frequently against his stuff in the lowest row of the zone, but swing over 70% of the time against his pitches in the middle parts of the plate. They slug .957 against his pitches down the middle and .826 against them in the location directly below. So lineups do well against German when they jump on his many mistakes in location. Tampa Bay and Oakland rank second and third respectively in swing percentage against pitches inside the zone and both achieved six runs against German. The Orioles rank sixth in the category and produced three runs in 2.2 innings against him. The Braves rank first in the category.
German's best performances came with four days’ rest in between starts. Don’t expect German to be sharp, who hasn’t started since June 24. His ERA with four days’ rest is 4.18, but 7.59 with five and 8.71 with six.
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Throughout a pitcher’s career, his ERA and FIP tend to align. Atlanta’s Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 2.68 ERA) is finally enjoying statistical progression, outperforming his FIP because he is stranding batters at a high rate.
Sanchez used to be primarily a fastball pitcher. But since he aged and lost some velocity, he has come to trust the variety and location of his stuff. He throws six different pitches with at least nine percent frequency, but not one with over 27% frequency. He likes to avoid elevating his stuff, but the difference with German is that he keeps his pitches more frequent;y away from the dangerous middle and on the fringes of the zone. His most three frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the zone, which helps him induce more grounders. Sanchez has greatly improved from last year because he makes fewer of the mistakes with location that German does, leaving his stuff down the middle with almost two percent lower frequency and reducing the opposing home run rate of his pitches.
The former Detroit Tiger has solid career history in Yankee stadium, 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA. Opposing Yankees are batting .182 against him. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are a combined 0-for-8 against him.
After a series with rival Boston, the Yankees begin a three-game series with Atlanta on Monday at 7:05 ET. The Yanks will field the more talented team on paper, but will that bring them a win tonight?
Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees
MLB Pick: Atlanta 1H
New York’s Domingo German (2-4, 5.32 ERA) flashes talent and potential, but is less MLB-ready. He thrives in preventing contact, but the key is that he is inconsistent, mistake-prone, and otherwise struggles to prevent runs.
German relies on a fastball-curveball combo. He throws both pitches with significant velocity and spin. The spin in his curveball makes it induce more ground balls while his fastball appears to „rise“ so that batters swing underneath it and cause a fly ball or strike out. German is equally strong, in terms of FIP, (like ERA, but factors out luck) against left-handed batters as against same-handed ones because he can command a variety of pitches. His change-up is most useful in neutralizing opposite-hand batters. It’s his second-favorite pitch against them and, with its significant movement and velocity differential relative to his fastball, procures the highest whiff-rate against them. He doesn’t like to elevate his stuff, but keeps it concentrated within the middle and lower regions of the strike zone. More often, he lets his stuff dip out of the zone. Only 42% of his pitches land within the strike zone. But, his stuff is so good, that batters chase his pitches outside the zone with 35% frequency. He generates the fourth-highest swinging strike percentage, behind aces Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
The youngster is nonetheless hittable. Three of his pitches, the fastball, sinker, and change-up, yield an opposing slugging percentage higher than the best team’s slugging percentage (.459). Opposing hitters can track the path of his pitches and exploit their poor location. Some of his most frequent pitch placements are in the more middle regions of the zone. Opponents whiff most frequently against his stuff in the lowest row of the zone, but swing over 70% of the time against his pitches in the middle parts of the plate. They slug .957 against his pitches down the middle and .826 against them in the location directly below. So lineups do well against German when they jump on his many mistakes in location. Tampa Bay and Oakland rank second and third respectively in swing percentage against pitches inside the zone and both achieved six runs against German. The Orioles rank sixth in the category and produced three runs in 2.2 innings against him. The Braves rank first in the category.
German's best performances came with four days’ rest in between starts. Don’t expect German to be sharp, who hasn’t started since June 24. His ERA with four days’ rest is 4.18, but 7.59 with five and 8.71 with six.
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Throughout a pitcher’s career, his ERA and FIP tend to align. Atlanta’s Anibal Sanchez (3-2, 2.68 ERA) is finally enjoying statistical progression, outperforming his FIP because he is stranding batters at a high rate.
Sanchez used to be primarily a fastball pitcher. But since he aged and lost some velocity, he has come to trust the variety and location of his stuff. He throws six different pitches with at least nine percent frequency, but not one with over 27% frequency. He likes to avoid elevating his stuff, but the difference with German is that he keeps his pitches more frequent;y away from the dangerous middle and on the fringes of the zone. His most three frequent pitch locations are in the lowest row of the zone, which helps him induce more grounders. Sanchez has greatly improved from last year because he makes fewer of the mistakes with location that German does, leaving his stuff down the middle with almost two percent lower frequency and reducing the opposing home run rate of his pitches.
The former Detroit Tiger has solid career history in Yankee stadium, 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA. Opposing Yankees are batting .182 against him. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are a combined 0-for-8 against him.
