Yankees vs. Blue Jays: MLB Best Bets
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, September 23, 2020 at 6:37 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, New York
Robbie Ray
Don’t let the surface stats of Blue Jay starter Robbie Ray (2-5, 7.17 ERA) scare you.
They are primarily a reflection of the beginning of his season. More than half of the runs that he’s allowed thus far came in his first four starts.
Since that start, he’s been great at bouncing back after tough outings. Following each of the last three starts where he allowed four runs or more, he yielded two runs or fewer in the following outing.
Ray’s Strengths
Expect a lot of strikeouts from Ray — he generates 11.90 of them per nine innings.
One important tool in this respect is his favorite pitch, his fastball, which he throws almost half the time
In this pitch he combines above-average velocity with a high spin rate.
Spin rate can make a pitch more effective because it makes its exact destination a deceptive puzzle for the opposing batter.
Ray nibbles the plate with this pitch in a way that makes positive use of its moderate movement.
Its three most-frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
With the pitch moving at 94 mph and spinning as it does, batters struggle to discern whether it will land for a strike.
His best whiff pitch by percentage is his second-favorite pitch, his slider.
Ray is comfortable throwing this pitch, as evidenced by the fact that he emphasizes it against both lefties and righties and gladly features it in every part of the count.
Whereas he varies his fastball location by placing it often in different parts of the strike zone (or just outside of it), he concentrates his slider location at the batter’s knees.
When his slider is a strike, Ray places it 61 percent of the time in the lowest row of the strike zone.
So again, Ray is playing with the borders of a zone. Its positive location accompanies tight lateral movement and relatively strong vertical drop that makes it regularly flirt with a strike call.
Ray vs. Yankees
Besides being in a positively grounded bounce-back opportunity, Ray will thrive today because he matches up well with the Yankees.
For all of their overall hitting flare — which explains why sportsbooks regularly favor them so heavily — they struggle comparatively against lefties.
Overall, they rank 23rd in hitting .230 against left-handed pitchers.
Against Ray’s specifically favorite pitches from lefties — his four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball, which make up 93 percent of his arsenal altogether — the Yanks rank 15th in slugging.
15th isn’t atrocious. But we’re talking about a team that typically ranks among the best and is treated as one of the best by oddsmakers.
Their match-up difficulties with Ray create unique betting value for the underdog.
One Yankee who will have a difficult time is Giancarlo Stanton. He’s 1-for-5 (.200) in his career against Ray.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Blue Jay Batters
New York starter Masahiro Tanaka (3-2, 3.27 ERA) is in a tough spot today.
After having his start pushed back a day — which is something that starting pitchers generally don’t like to have happen to them — he faces this same Blue Jay lineup a second consecutive time.
Home runs have been a problem for Tanaka and they will be difference-making today.
He’s allowed a home run in each of his last four starts and a combined total of five in those starts.
In terms of percentage, his fastball is his biggest home-run allowing culprit.
Tanaka’s fastball has been a reoccurring issue for him throughout his career. But he doesn’t have enough alternatives to keep him from throwing it often.
His fastball lacks the necessary quality to survive bad placement. Opponents punish his middle-of-the-zone fastball placement with superbly high slugging rates.
One Blue Jay who thrives at home is Randal Grichuk. He’s hitting .272 and slugging .494 in home games thus far. In 21 career at-bats against Tanaka, he has four home runs.
Spot
Like the Yanks, who are 11-16 and yield -11.7 units on the road, Tanaka has been a regular loser on the road. In his road starts, he is 0-3, yielding -4 units in three attempts.
Bullpen
Both teams rank evenly in terms of bullpen ERA.
With one exceptions (as is the case with the Yankees), Toronto will have its best arms fresh.
Ryan Borucki, for example, has a 2.81 ERA and only threw five pitches in a quickly successful outing for him yesterday.
The Verdict
New York is overvalued because its relative struggles against southpaws and its disappointing bullpen are not accounted for in the MLB odds.
Some numbers — like Ray’s regular season ERA — look misleadingly bad for the Jays. Likewise, overall bullpen ERA is pointless to look at when the Jays have their good arms available.
Match-up advantages justify an investment in the Jays. Take advantage of the extra run being offered.
Best Bet: Blue Jays RL (Odds TBA)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, September 23, 2020 at 6:37 p.m. ET at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, New York
Robbie Ray
Don’t let the surface stats of Blue Jay starter Robbie Ray (2-5, 7.17 ERA) scare you.
They are primarily a reflection of the beginning of his season. More than half of the runs that he’s allowed thus far came in his first four starts.
Since that start, he’s been great at bouncing back after tough outings. Following each of the last three starts where he allowed four runs or more, he yielded two runs or fewer in the following outing.
Ray’s Strengths
Expect a lot of strikeouts from Ray — he generates 11.90 of them per nine innings.
One important tool in this respect is his favorite pitch, his fastball, which he throws almost half the time
In this pitch he combines above-average velocity with a high spin rate.
Spin rate can make a pitch more effective because it makes its exact destination a deceptive puzzle for the opposing batter.
Ray nibbles the plate with this pitch in a way that makes positive use of its moderate movement.
Its three most-frequent strike locations are along a border of the zone.
With the pitch moving at 94 mph and spinning as it does, batters struggle to discern whether it will land for a strike.
His best whiff pitch by percentage is his second-favorite pitch, his slider.
Ray is comfortable throwing this pitch, as evidenced by the fact that he emphasizes it against both lefties and righties and gladly features it in every part of the count.
Whereas he varies his fastball location by placing it often in different parts of the strike zone (or just outside of it), he concentrates his slider location at the batter’s knees.
When his slider is a strike, Ray places it 61 percent of the time in the lowest row of the strike zone.
So again, Ray is playing with the borders of a zone. Its positive location accompanies tight lateral movement and relatively strong vertical drop that makes it regularly flirt with a strike call.
Ray vs. Yankees
Besides being in a positively grounded bounce-back opportunity, Ray will thrive today because he matches up well with the Yankees.
For all of their overall hitting flare — which explains why sportsbooks regularly favor them so heavily — they struggle comparatively against lefties.
Overall, they rank 23rd in hitting .230 against left-handed pitchers.
Against Ray’s specifically favorite pitches from lefties — his four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball, which make up 93 percent of his arsenal altogether — the Yanks rank 15th in slugging.
15th isn’t atrocious. But we’re talking about a team that typically ranks among the best and is treated as one of the best by oddsmakers.
Their match-up difficulties with Ray create unique betting value for the underdog.
One Yankee who will have a difficult time is Giancarlo Stanton. He’s 1-for-5 (.200) in his career against Ray.
Masahiro Tanaka vs. Blue Jay Batters
New York starter Masahiro Tanaka (3-2, 3.27 ERA) is in a tough spot today.
After having his start pushed back a day — which is something that starting pitchers generally don’t like to have happen to them — he faces this same Blue Jay lineup a second consecutive time.
Home runs have been a problem for Tanaka and they will be difference-making today.
He’s allowed a home run in each of his last four starts and a combined total of five in those starts.
In terms of percentage, his fastball is his biggest home-run allowing culprit.
Tanaka’s fastball has been a reoccurring issue for him throughout his career. But he doesn’t have enough alternatives to keep him from throwing it often.
His fastball lacks the necessary quality to survive bad placement. Opponents punish his middle-of-the-zone fastball placement with superbly high slugging rates.
One Blue Jay who thrives at home is Randal Grichuk. He’s hitting .272 and slugging .494 in home games thus far. In 21 career at-bats against Tanaka, he has four home runs.
Spot
Like the Yanks, who are 11-16 and yield -11.7 units on the road, Tanaka has been a regular loser on the road. In his road starts, he is 0-3, yielding -4 units in three attempts.
Bullpen
Both teams rank evenly in terms of bullpen ERA.
With one exceptions (as is the case with the Yankees), Toronto will have its best arms fresh.
Ryan Borucki, for example, has a 2.81 ERA and only threw five pitches in a quickly successful outing for him yesterday.
The Verdict
New York is overvalued because its relative struggles against southpaws and its disappointing bullpen are not accounted for in the MLB odds.
Some numbers — like Ray’s regular season ERA — look misleadingly bad for the Jays. Likewise, overall bullpen ERA is pointless to look at when the Jays have their good arms available.
Match-up advantages justify an investment in the Jays. Take advantage of the extra run being offered.
Best Bet: Blue Jays RL (Odds TBA)
