Yankees vs. Athletics Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, August 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
The Importance of Experience Against Jordan Montgomery
Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery's 3.69 ERA might not look impressive, but let's break it down a bit.
He has allowed an ERA over 5.00 in eight different starts this year. Six of those starts came against division rivals.
In a similar vein, his most recent bad start came against a Boston team that he was facing for about the third time in a month. Besides that game, he had allowed one run or zero runs in his last four starts.
So, Montgomery's ERA is very much worsened by his division rivals, which are the teams that see him most often every year and are therefore the most familiar with him.
Likewise, his form is great, but it would look even better if he didn't have to deal with the same Red Sox lineup repeatedly.
Tonight, one has to consider Montgomery to be better than his numbers make him out to be because he is not facing a division rival.
Montgomery has faced Oakland one time this year in a start that took place over two months ago. In that start, Montgomery allowed one run in 5.1 innings.
Overall, the A's have mustered 31 career at-bats against Montgomery. This is a very low number.
Montgomery's Stuff vs. Athletic Batters
In terms of pitching style, Montgomery prides himself on variety and location.
He does not throw a single pitch with more than 23.9 percent frequency. This ability to comfortably throw a variety of pitches makes him less predictable.
His favorite pitches are his curveball, change-up, and sinker. Those are the three pitches that he throws with over 20 percent frequency.
Heat maps show how often he places his pitches on the edges of the strike zone. Batters regularly have to try to hit his pitches while they're located farther away from the middle, more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Oakland batters match up poorly against Montgomery because they rank 23rd in slugging a paltry .365 against Montgomery's three favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Matt Chapman, for example, is 0-for-4 in his career against the Yankee southpaw.
Paul Blackburn By Necessity
Oakland starter Paul Blackburn doesn't usually stay in the majors for long -- his 5.53 career ERA in the MLB explains why. He is typically a guy that the A's will call up from Triple-A as needed.
This is why he only has three MLB starts so far this year. Originally, Chris Bassitt was in the starting rotation. But he suffered a facial fracture after a line drive belted him in the face.
Blackburn is therefore not actually Oakland's desired starting pitcher. He is out there tonight out of necessity.
Blackburn's Stuff Vs. Yankee Batters
One disadvantage that Blackburn suffers compared to Montgomery is that he has less balance in his pitching arsenal.
Blackburn relies rather heavily on a single pitch, his sinker. Unlike Montgomery, he throws a pitch over 40 percent of the time.
Opponents hit .667 and slugged .833 against this pitch last year. While these numbers have plummeted this year, he's still only had two starts.
He didn't pitch much last year, either. So the truth -- about the quality of his sinker -- likely likes somewhere in between both extremes.
Because his sinker hasn't really changed much -- its movement and velocity are very similar -- it doesn't seem reasonable to expect this pitch to be any better than it was last year.
Generally, the outlook appears bleak because he pitches to contact -- he rarely induces any whiffs -- and he often yields hard contact.
One cannot look at New York's season-long hitting numbers in order to fairly assess its lineup's potential in a given game.
In a distant time, early in the season, the Yankee lineup suffered poor form and injuries.
During their sizzling August, however, they've ranked well above-average in slugging against Blackburn's two favorite pitches -- the sinker and cutter -- from righties combined. This number increases strongly outside of New York.
Last night, the Yankees ran into an Oakland starter in Frankie Montas who had been enjoying superbly strong form as evident in his recent stretch of games with a very low FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Tonight offers the Yanks the chance to resume their strong form. Before last night, behind sluggers like Aaron Judge, they had scored at least five runs in eight straight games.
The Verdict
Behind a strong pitching advantage and an improved lineup, the Yankees will secure an early lead.
Relievers with sub-three ERAs who can even pitch multiple innings -- like Chad Green and Jonathan Loaisiga -- are totally fresh.
Also note a telling trend: the Yankees have won their last seven games following a loss.
Behind their multitude of advantages, they will win by multiple runs.
If the Yankee money-line is too chalky for you, then you should play the run-line.
Best Bet: Yankees RL at +107 at Heritage
New York Yankees vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, August 28, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
The Importance of Experience Against Jordan Montgomery
Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery's 3.69 ERA might not look impressive, but let's break it down a bit.
He has allowed an ERA over 5.00 in eight different starts this year. Six of those starts came against division rivals.
In a similar vein, his most recent bad start came against a Boston team that he was facing for about the third time in a month. Besides that game, he had allowed one run or zero runs in his last four starts.
So, Montgomery's ERA is very much worsened by his division rivals, which are the teams that see him most often every year and are therefore the most familiar with him.
Likewise, his form is great, but it would look even better if he didn't have to deal with the same Red Sox lineup repeatedly.
Tonight, one has to consider Montgomery to be better than his numbers make him out to be because he is not facing a division rival.
Montgomery has faced Oakland one time this year in a start that took place over two months ago. In that start, Montgomery allowed one run in 5.1 innings.
Overall, the A's have mustered 31 career at-bats against Montgomery. This is a very low number.
Montgomery's Stuff vs. Athletic Batters
In terms of pitching style, Montgomery prides himself on variety and location.
He does not throw a single pitch with more than 23.9 percent frequency. This ability to comfortably throw a variety of pitches makes him less predictable.
His favorite pitches are his curveball, change-up, and sinker. Those are the three pitches that he throws with over 20 percent frequency.
Heat maps show how often he places his pitches on the edges of the strike zone. Batters regularly have to try to hit his pitches while they're located farther away from the middle, more hittable parts of the strike zone.
Oakland batters match up poorly against Montgomery because they rank 23rd in slugging a paltry .365 against Montgomery's three favorite pitches from lefties combined.
Matt Chapman, for example, is 0-for-4 in his career against the Yankee southpaw.
Paul Blackburn By Necessity
Oakland starter Paul Blackburn doesn't usually stay in the majors for long -- his 5.53 career ERA in the MLB explains why. He is typically a guy that the A's will call up from Triple-A as needed.
This is why he only has three MLB starts so far this year. Originally, Chris Bassitt was in the starting rotation. But he suffered a facial fracture after a line drive belted him in the face.
Blackburn is therefore not actually Oakland's desired starting pitcher. He is out there tonight out of necessity.
Blackburn's Stuff Vs. Yankee Batters
One disadvantage that Blackburn suffers compared to Montgomery is that he has less balance in his pitching arsenal.
Blackburn relies rather heavily on a single pitch, his sinker. Unlike Montgomery, he throws a pitch over 40 percent of the time.
Opponents hit .667 and slugged .833 against this pitch last year. While these numbers have plummeted this year, he's still only had two starts.
He didn't pitch much last year, either. So the truth -- about the quality of his sinker -- likely likes somewhere in between both extremes.
Because his sinker hasn't really changed much -- its movement and velocity are very similar -- it doesn't seem reasonable to expect this pitch to be any better than it was last year.
Generally, the outlook appears bleak because he pitches to contact -- he rarely induces any whiffs -- and he often yields hard contact.
One cannot look at New York's season-long hitting numbers in order to fairly assess its lineup's potential in a given game.
In a distant time, early in the season, the Yankee lineup suffered poor form and injuries.
During their sizzling August, however, they've ranked well above-average in slugging against Blackburn's two favorite pitches -- the sinker and cutter -- from righties combined. This number increases strongly outside of New York.
Last night, the Yankees ran into an Oakland starter in Frankie Montas who had been enjoying superbly strong form as evident in his recent stretch of games with a very low FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding).
Tonight offers the Yanks the chance to resume their strong form. Before last night, behind sluggers like Aaron Judge, they had scored at least five runs in eight straight games.
The Verdict
Behind a strong pitching advantage and an improved lineup, the Yankees will secure an early lead.
Relievers with sub-three ERAs who can even pitch multiple innings -- like Chad Green and Jonathan Loaisiga -- are totally fresh.
Also note a telling trend: the Yankees have won their last seven games following a loss.
Behind their multitude of advantages, they will win by multiple runs.
If the Yankee money-line is too chalky for you, then you should play the run-line.
Best Bet: Yankees RL at +107 at Heritage
