Yankees vs. Astros MLB Preview and Best Bet
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Jameson Taillon
A cursory overview of Yankee starter Jameson Taillon's season until now can easily yield misleading results.
It is true that his ERA is much higher this year and that he is allowing more home runs as well as more elevated balls in general.
On one level, it is true that his higher opposing home run rate explains why he is giving up more runs.
But it would be wrong to conclude that his higher opposing home run rate -- and therewith his higher ERA -- reflect some sort of regression in ability.
His xFIP is actually right around what it was in 2019, when his ERA was 0.95 lower than it currently is.
To explain, FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls.
Essentially, Taillon should be allowing fewer home runs, so we can expect his opposing home run rate to drop. This rate is, in fact, already dropping as he's allowed zero home runs in four of his last six starts.
As for his higher opposing fly ball rate, this isn't a consequence so much of bad pitching as it is of a change in pitching repertoire.
While pitching for a new team, he has made some adjustments. Most notably, he has ditched his two-seam fastball in order to favor his four-seam fastball.
Taillon throws the four-seam fastball nearly twice as often as he did in his last season with Pittsburgh. He throws it with 50.2-percent frequency.
He also often elevates it. This pitch's higher spin rate gives it the appearance of rising action, thus inducing the opposing batter to swing underneath it and generate a fly ball.
Taillon vs. Astro Batters
One should expect Taillon to continue his current tendency to avoid the long ball against Houston.
In terms of form, Astro batters look awful. They've scored a combined total of one run in the last three games.
During this negative span, Houston's slugging rate is well below average against Taillon's favorite pitches -- the fastball, slider, and curveball -- from righties.
Jose Altuve is one notable hitter who will face Taillon for the first time in his career.
Framber Valdez
Astro starter Framber Valdez is coming off a tough-luck outing in which he yielded an abysmal-looking ERA, but a 1.97 FIP.
Valdez allowed an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite doing a tremendous job of generating soft contact.
He'll rely primarily on his sinker, curveball, and change-up in order to allow fewer runs today.
Unlike Taillon, Valdez generates ground balls 70.9-percent of the time.
The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch. Plus, he likes to keep his change-up and especially his curveball low, so that batters hit these pitches into the ground if they make contact with them.
Valdez vs. Yankee Batters
Valdez looks promising today because the Yankees rank 23rd in slugging against Valdez's three favorite pitches from lefties.
Plus, New York's lineup is far from being in great form as it has scored a combined total of five runs in its past three games.
Yankee betters have not gained much experience against Valdez. DJ LeMahieu, for example, is 0-for-2 in his career facing Valdez.
Key Trends
A pitcher's last start before the All-Star Break is a unique spot because he knows he has a mini-vacation coming up.
Taillon has collected two games-worth of experience in this spot during his career. In those two games, he allowed one run in six innings against Milwaukee and zero runs in five innings in Philadelphia.
Moreover, the Yankees are a strong "under" team during the day as the "under" has hit in 60.6-percent of their day games so far.
The Verdict
I lean towards New York since it has the fresher bullpen and the bullpen with the stronger pitching numbers, and yet it is an underdog.
But neither lineup can boast a reliable source of runs today, especially as both starting pitchers own meaningful match-up advantages. This is also a good spot for the "under."
For the above reasons, expect a pitcher's duel today.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -115 at Bovada
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Sunday, July 11, 2021 at 2:10 p.m. ET (TBS) at Minute Maid Park in Houston
Jameson Taillon
A cursory overview of Yankee starter Jameson Taillon's season until now can easily yield misleading results.
It is true that his ERA is much higher this year and that he is allowing more home runs as well as more elevated balls in general.
On one level, it is true that his higher opposing home run rate explains why he is giving up more runs.
But it would be wrong to conclude that his higher opposing home run rate -- and therewith his higher ERA -- reflect some sort of regression in ability.
His xFIP is actually right around what it was in 2019, when his ERA was 0.95 lower than it currently is.
To explain, FIP is like ERA, but factors out fielding. xFIP is like FIP, but calculates how many home runs a pitcher should have allowed by accounting for how many fly balls he has allowed and for the league average ratio of home runs to fly balls.
Essentially, Taillon should be allowing fewer home runs, so we can expect his opposing home run rate to drop. This rate is, in fact, already dropping as he's allowed zero home runs in four of his last six starts.
As for his higher opposing fly ball rate, this isn't a consequence so much of bad pitching as it is of a change in pitching repertoire.
While pitching for a new team, he has made some adjustments. Most notably, he has ditched his two-seam fastball in order to favor his four-seam fastball.
Taillon throws the four-seam fastball nearly twice as often as he did in his last season with Pittsburgh. He throws it with 50.2-percent frequency.
He also often elevates it. This pitch's higher spin rate gives it the appearance of rising action, thus inducing the opposing batter to swing underneath it and generate a fly ball.
Taillon vs. Astro Batters
One should expect Taillon to continue his current tendency to avoid the long ball against Houston.
In terms of form, Astro batters look awful. They've scored a combined total of one run in the last three games.
During this negative span, Houston's slugging rate is well below average against Taillon's favorite pitches -- the fastball, slider, and curveball -- from righties.
Jose Altuve is one notable hitter who will face Taillon for the first time in his career.
Framber Valdez
Astro starter Framber Valdez is coming off a tough-luck outing in which he yielded an abysmal-looking ERA, but a 1.97 FIP.
Valdez allowed an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite doing a tremendous job of generating soft contact.
He'll rely primarily on his sinker, curveball, and change-up in order to allow fewer runs today.
Unlike Taillon, Valdez generates ground balls 70.9-percent of the time.
The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch. Plus, he likes to keep his change-up and especially his curveball low, so that batters hit these pitches into the ground if they make contact with them.
Valdez vs. Yankee Batters
Valdez looks promising today because the Yankees rank 23rd in slugging against Valdez's three favorite pitches from lefties.
Plus, New York's lineup is far from being in great form as it has scored a combined total of five runs in its past three games.
Yankee betters have not gained much experience against Valdez. DJ LeMahieu, for example, is 0-for-2 in his career facing Valdez.
Key Trends
A pitcher's last start before the All-Star Break is a unique spot because he knows he has a mini-vacation coming up.
Taillon has collected two games-worth of experience in this spot during his career. In those two games, he allowed one run in six innings against Milwaukee and zero runs in five innings in Philadelphia.
Moreover, the Yankees are a strong "under" team during the day as the "under" has hit in 60.6-percent of their day games so far.
The Verdict
I lean towards New York since it has the fresher bullpen and the bullpen with the stronger pitching numbers, and yet it is an underdog.
But neither lineup can boast a reliable source of runs today, especially as both starting pitchers own meaningful match-up advantages. This is also a good spot for the "under."
For the above reasons, expect a pitcher's duel today.
Best Bet: First-Half Under 4.5 at -115 at Bovada
