Betting Cosmos Aligned With Astros in New York
The Yanks host Houston for Game 2 at 7:05 ET. They find themselves small underdogs once again, but surely they can’t lose two in a row at home?
Houston Astros (35-20) at New York Yankees (33-17)
MLB Pick: Astros -117
Houston’s Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.04 ERA) looks to stay undefeated. He’s been outperforming his peripheries mainly by maintaining a crazily high percentage of runners left on base. But he deserves this luck. Throughout a pitcher’s career, ERA tends to align with FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) and Morton’s ERA is .30 higher than his FIP. Expect the veteran to continue statistical progression.
Luck notwithstanding, Morton has improved, making him a valuable choice to back at a reasonable price. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four of his last five starts and eight of 10 on the season. His FIP was under 3.20 in four of his last five starts.
Morton is enjoying an uptick in velocity. His main change has been to increase his fastball usage. Doing so has helped his sinker, which opponents can no longer sit on. He’s brought his opposing slugging percentage against the sinker down from .504 last year to .344 this year. Morton throws it harder and with more „sink.“ Righties are batting .204 against it and it’s been virtually untouchable the further inside that he’s located it. Morton is inducing more whiffs particularly with his curveball that is dropping more. Overall, his stuff is better. He throws more often in the strike zone but induces less contact.
In his two worst games he threw his fastball with the least frequency because his opponent was slamming it. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging percentage is with where it should be, the Yanks are easily the most overachieving team against the high-velocity fastball, especially at home, and so are most due for statistical regression. In the past two weeks, we’ve been seeing this regression, as the Yanks are slugging .111 against the 94+ mph fastball. Since the fastball is so fundamental for Morton’s repertoire, both by itself and to facilitate his breaking pitches, the Yanks’ struggles in this department are significant. Overall, they’re averaging only two runs in their past four games and so are 2-4 in their last six games.
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CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.55 ERA) counters for New York. The southpaw has been unable to work past the fifth inning in his past three starts, allowing an average 4.1 earned runs in them. In his last two, his FIP was over 6 and he allowed above his season average percentage of hard contact. He’s been leaving pitches more frequently in the middle, more vulnerable parts of the zone and these mistakes are representative of his overall struggles with command. In his past two games, he’s walked seven combined batters.
The slider, for instance, is important to Sabathia particularly to start batters off, to work his way back into the count, and with two strikes. Not just against him, but against every pitcher, teams' slugging percentage skyrockets against the slider in the lower-middle parts of the zone. In May, opponents are slugging .731 against Sabathia's slider. So while it doesn’t completely matter who Sabathia faces at the moment given his struggles, Houston boasts the fourth-highest slugging percentage against sliders in this location. Even if Sabathia fixes his location issues, Houston matches up well with him. Against CC’s three most important pitches, the slider, sinker and change, thrown by lefties, the Astros rank second in slugging and are metrically even underachieving.
Houston has won five of seven, producing over four runs in six of those games. Jose Altuve is batting .429 and Evan Gattis slugging .750 in their past seven days. George Springer is slugging .673 against lefties.
The Astros’ pen ranks first in FIP, is fresher, and will require less use today. It will preserve Houston’s lead.
The Yanks host Houston for Game 2 at 7:05 ET. They find themselves small underdogs once again, but surely they can’t lose two in a row at home?
Houston Astros (35-20) at New York Yankees (33-17)
MLB Pick: Astros -117
Houston’s Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.04 ERA) looks to stay undefeated. He’s been outperforming his peripheries mainly by maintaining a crazily high percentage of runners left on base. But he deserves this luck. Throughout a pitcher’s career, ERA tends to align with FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) and Morton’s ERA is .30 higher than his FIP. Expect the veteran to continue statistical progression.
Luck notwithstanding, Morton has improved, making him a valuable choice to back at a reasonable price. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in four of his last five starts and eight of 10 on the season. His FIP was under 3.20 in four of his last five starts.
Morton is enjoying an uptick in velocity. His main change has been to increase his fastball usage. Doing so has helped his sinker, which opponents can no longer sit on. He’s brought his opposing slugging percentage against the sinker down from .504 last year to .344 this year. Morton throws it harder and with more „sink.“ Righties are batting .204 against it and it’s been virtually untouchable the further inside that he’s located it. Morton is inducing more whiffs particularly with his curveball that is dropping more. Overall, his stuff is better. He throws more often in the strike zone but induces less contact.
In his two worst games he threw his fastball with the least frequency because his opponent was slamming it. Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares what a team’s slugging percentage is with where it should be, the Yanks are easily the most overachieving team against the high-velocity fastball, especially at home, and so are most due for statistical regression. In the past two weeks, we’ve been seeing this regression, as the Yanks are slugging .111 against the 94+ mph fastball. Since the fastball is so fundamental for Morton’s repertoire, both by itself and to facilitate his breaking pitches, the Yanks’ struggles in this department are significant. Overall, they’re averaging only two runs in their past four games and so are 2-4 in their last six games.
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CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.55 ERA) counters for New York. The southpaw has been unable to work past the fifth inning in his past three starts, allowing an average 4.1 earned runs in them. In his last two, his FIP was over 6 and he allowed above his season average percentage of hard contact. He’s been leaving pitches more frequently in the middle, more vulnerable parts of the zone and these mistakes are representative of his overall struggles with command. In his past two games, he’s walked seven combined batters.
The slider, for instance, is important to Sabathia particularly to start batters off, to work his way back into the count, and with two strikes. Not just against him, but against every pitcher, teams' slugging percentage skyrockets against the slider in the lower-middle parts of the zone. In May, opponents are slugging .731 against Sabathia's slider. So while it doesn’t completely matter who Sabathia faces at the moment given his struggles, Houston boasts the fourth-highest slugging percentage against sliders in this location. Even if Sabathia fixes his location issues, Houston matches up well with him. Against CC’s three most important pitches, the slider, sinker and change, thrown by lefties, the Astros rank second in slugging and are metrically even underachieving.
Houston has won five of seven, producing over four runs in six of those games. Jose Altuve is batting .429 and Evan Gattis slugging .750 in their past seven days. George Springer is slugging .673 against lefties.
The Astros’ pen ranks first in FIP, is fresher, and will require less use today. It will preserve Houston’s lead.
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