Don’t Rush to Point Out a Pitching Mismatch Between Yanks and Astros
The Yankees host the Astros to begin a three-game series on Monday. Don’t miss the 1:00 ET start time on ESPN or the 1H „under“ bet that both starting pitchers justify.
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s Domingo German (0-2, 5.59 ERA) obtained fame for no-hitting Cleveland through six innings but looks fade-worthy after giving up 12 runs in his two outings since, the first one being a let-down performance against Oakland. His last outing against Texas actually reveals that bettors should continue to trust him. His xFIP was 3.55. xFIP is like ERA, but measures a pitcher’s performance independent of his defense and assuming a league-average ratio between homers and fly balls. xFIP factors out luck and is strongly predictive of future performances. In two previous outings he allowed a homer but yielded an xFIP under 4.00. After both of those unlucky outings he shut out his next opponent. Against Texas, he induced a 80% ground ball rate, meaning that he kept the ball on the ground. His strike out and swinging strike rates were as strong as they were against Cleveland while he was anomalously wild.
His issue against Texas was the low opposing swing percentage against pitches outside the zone. He typically needs his sinker to induce whiffs, so he had to throw significantly more fastballs. This struggle was anomalous because the Rangers boast the fourth-highest percentage of sinkers taken for a ball. Overall, they rank second in plate discipline—as measured by low swing percentage at would-be balls— in the past week. Conversely, Houston ranks bottom-half in both categories and is bereft of Texas' match-up advantages.
German’s most vulnerable pitch is his 95-97 mph fastball. Look to see as little of his fastball as the Astros saw from him in his four shutout innings on May 1. In that outing, he relied mostly on his curveball. The Astros are slugging .189 against this pitch in the past two weeks. So they merit the same concerns while German doesn’t deserve any.
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Houston’s Justin Verlander (6-2, 1.08 ERA) is an auto-bet. His strike-out, walks and home run allowed rates, ERA, FIP and swinging strike percentage are career-bests. On May 1 he shut out the Yanks through eight innings with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. Don’t think that the Yanks gain an advantage by seeing him again. On the contrary, Verlander has faced two teams multiple times—the Rangers thrice and the Angels twice— and improved his FIP in each ensuing outing. In 11 starts, he has yielded an ERA or FIP over 3.00 only once.
Verlander is allowing a BA under .170 against all four of his pitches. He lowered his slider velocity in order to produce a greater disparity in velocity with his harder stuff. This disparity throws hitters off-balance, so his slider is whiffing more batters. He is adding greater variance to his first pitch selection with the result of a current career-best in first-pitch strike percentage. His fastball is sinking more so that it's more elusive. Like his curve, batters are swinging under it and causing more fly balls. His slider has lost significant vertical movement so that it’s harder for batters to track. He is throwing in the middle parts of the zone more frequently but is nonetheless producing a higher whiff rate. This year, he ranks tenth in spin rate, which ranks third among starters, while last year he ranked 22nd in the category. Verlander is creating more rotation in his pitches—his stuff is better, so that he doesn’t need to worry much about location.
It’s impossible to go against Verlander, who has been untouchable with his superior stuff. But German today also isn’t different from the German who no-hit Cleveland and will help keep this game „under“ the total.
The Yankees host the Astros to begin a three-game series on Monday. Don’t miss the 1:00 ET start time on ESPN or the 1H „under“ bet that both starting pitchers justify.
Houston Astros at New York Yankees
MLB Pick: 1H Under
New York’s Domingo German (0-2, 5.59 ERA) obtained fame for no-hitting Cleveland through six innings but looks fade-worthy after giving up 12 runs in his two outings since, the first one being a let-down performance against Oakland. His last outing against Texas actually reveals that bettors should continue to trust him. His xFIP was 3.55. xFIP is like ERA, but measures a pitcher’s performance independent of his defense and assuming a league-average ratio between homers and fly balls. xFIP factors out luck and is strongly predictive of future performances. In two previous outings he allowed a homer but yielded an xFIP under 4.00. After both of those unlucky outings he shut out his next opponent. Against Texas, he induced a 80% ground ball rate, meaning that he kept the ball on the ground. His strike out and swinging strike rates were as strong as they were against Cleveland while he was anomalously wild.
His issue against Texas was the low opposing swing percentage against pitches outside the zone. He typically needs his sinker to induce whiffs, so he had to throw significantly more fastballs. This struggle was anomalous because the Rangers boast the fourth-highest percentage of sinkers taken for a ball. Overall, they rank second in plate discipline—as measured by low swing percentage at would-be balls— in the past week. Conversely, Houston ranks bottom-half in both categories and is bereft of Texas' match-up advantages.
German’s most vulnerable pitch is his 95-97 mph fastball. Look to see as little of his fastball as the Astros saw from him in his four shutout innings on May 1. In that outing, he relied mostly on his curveball. The Astros are slugging .189 against this pitch in the past two weeks. So they merit the same concerns while German doesn’t deserve any.
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Houston’s Justin Verlander (6-2, 1.08 ERA) is an auto-bet. His strike-out, walks and home run allowed rates, ERA, FIP and swinging strike percentage are career-bests. On May 1 he shut out the Yanks through eight innings with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. Don’t think that the Yanks gain an advantage by seeing him again. On the contrary, Verlander has faced two teams multiple times—the Rangers thrice and the Angels twice— and improved his FIP in each ensuing outing. In 11 starts, he has yielded an ERA or FIP over 3.00 only once.
Verlander is allowing a BA under .170 against all four of his pitches. He lowered his slider velocity in order to produce a greater disparity in velocity with his harder stuff. This disparity throws hitters off-balance, so his slider is whiffing more batters. He is adding greater variance to his first pitch selection with the result of a current career-best in first-pitch strike percentage. His fastball is sinking more so that it's more elusive. Like his curve, batters are swinging under it and causing more fly balls. His slider has lost significant vertical movement so that it’s harder for batters to track. He is throwing in the middle parts of the zone more frequently but is nonetheless producing a higher whiff rate. This year, he ranks tenth in spin rate, which ranks third among starters, while last year he ranked 22nd in the category. Verlander is creating more rotation in his pitches—his stuff is better, so that he doesn’t need to worry much about location.
It’s impossible to go against Verlander, who has been untouchable with his superior stuff. But German today also isn’t different from the German who no-hit Cleveland and will help keep this game „under“ the total.
